EURUSD - m15 buyBuy stop - key red level, need to break out
Targets depend on your frame
Minimum target is to complete the ABC to the upside.
Trade safe
E71! trade ideas
Futures (E71!), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumType : Bearish Drop
Resistance : 1.0314
Pivot: 1.0151
Support : 1.0005
Preferred Case: On the H4, as the price is below descending trendline and the MACD indicators are below zero, we have a bearish bias that price may drop from the pivot at 1.0151 where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement is to the 1st support at 1.0005, which is in line with swing low.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 1.0314 where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement is.
Fundamentals: Rhine River, a pillar of the German, Dutch and Swiss economies for centuries is set to become virtually impassable at a key waypoint later this week, which impacted the transport of diesel and coal.
Futures (E71!), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumType : Bearish Drop
Resistance : 1.0314
Pivot: 1.0151
Support : 1.0005
Preferred Case: On the H4, as the price is below descending trendline and the MACD indicators are below zero, we have a bearish bias that price may drop from the pivot at 1.0151 where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement is to the 1st support at 1.0005, which is in line with swing low.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 1.0314 where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement is.
Fundamentals: Rhine River, a pillar of the German, Dutch and Swiss economies for centuries is set to become virtually impassable at a key waypoint later this week, which impacted the transport of diesel and coal.
Potential Bearish ContinuationPreferred Case: On the H4, with price moving in a descending trendline and below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 1.0668 at the pullback resistance and multiple swing high in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 1.0364 in line with the swing low and 78.6% fibonacci projection.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and rise to the overlap 1st resistance at 1.0791 at the multiple swing highs in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection and 50% fibonacci retracement.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
EURUSD / M6E Short Term Long PositionsEURUSD / M6E Short Term Long Positions
Daily Timeframe:
Ichimoku five lines are currently flat means the market is consolidating.
Price is still inside the the previous 3 weeks Volume Profile and Still inside the 3 months Volume profile.
Price may retest the 1.00 level as if price price break that level trade is long setups are invalid.
30mins Timeframe:
Price close inside the previous 3 Days Volume Profile, and now currently above the Previous POC.
Price was supported by the previous 3 Days Volume Profile VAL.
Expecting the price to move towards the previous 3 Days VAH which is at 1.0275 level.
Euro E-mini Futures (E71!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 1.0430
Pivot: 1.0198
Support : 1.0007
Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices breaking the descending channel , we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 1.0198 where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement is to the 1st resistance at 1.0430 where the 50% fibonacci retracement is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 1.0007 where the swing low support.
Fundamentals: No key news.
EURO FX Futures(6E1), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 1.04665
Pivot: 1.03120
Support : 1.00260
Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices breaking the descending channel, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 1.03120 where the 38.2% fibonacci retracement is to the 1st resistance at 1.04665 where the overlap support is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 1.00260 where the swing low support.
Fundamentals: The ECB surprised markets with a 50bps rate increase at its recent meeting, the first rate increase since 2011. However, uncertainty over strong inflation growth, recession in the Eurozone, and the ongoing gas crisis has led to the Euro failing to find sustainable upside moves beyond the resistance level.
Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Euro FX Futures (6E1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum
Type : Bullish Momentum
Resistance : 1.04235
Pivot: 1.01325
Support : 1.00015
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price bouncing off the ichimoku cloud and RSI showing an ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will continue to rise from the pivot at 1.01325 at the overlap resistance in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement. If price breaks above the intermediate resistance at 1.03155 at the horizontal swing high in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection, we will have upside confirmation that price will continue to rise to the 1st resistance at 1.04235 at the pullback swing low in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci projection .
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 1.00015 at the swing low in line.
Fundamentals: no major news
BEARish trend of euro on the monthly time frameAs for some time years actually. Firstly it took out equal highs further it is in a downtrend, 2ndly price created imbalance once taking out these lows,3rdly price retraced halfway and reversed creating EQH lows (Liquidity) ... 4thly price retraced to the supply zone and mitigated a monthly Bearish OB and further its momentum in a down trend, taking out EQH lows (Liquidity) and breaking structure as well as "trendline LQD" creating a lower low.
I am hoping for it to come back to the trendline and it will be supported but that will be years from now and anything can happen since it is currently on a yearly downtrend let me look for (XXXEUR bullish ) and (EUR XXX bearish ).
The Demise of Euro Is Not Greatly ExaggeratedCME:6E1!
The U.S. dollar reached 1:1 parity with Euro on Tuesday for the first time in 20 years.
Wall Street may tell you that the common currency for 19 European countries has been hammered by economic woes, high inflation, and an energy supply crisis brought by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. I have a very straight-forward answer to the depreciation of the Euro. It is in a simple mathematical formula.
In economics, Interest rate parity (IRP) states that the interest rate differential between two countries is equal to the differential between the forward exchange rate and the spot exchange rate. The formula for IRP is:
F0=S0× , where:
F0=Forward Rate, S0=Spot Rate;
ic=Interest rate in country c; ib=Interest rate in country b
Inputs : The Fed raised rates three times from 0.0%-0.25% to current target of 1.50%-1.75% (ib). Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a deposit rate of -0.5% (ic). Before the first Fed rate hike in March, the Euro/USD spot rate was 1.04 (S0).
Output : Plug the data into the IRP formula, you will get a forward rate of 1.017 (F0). This matches the observed exchange rate after the June rate hike.
New Output : The market expects the Fed to raise another 75 bps on July 26th-27th. If we replace 1.75% with 2.50% in ib, the new Euro/USD forward rate would be 1.0096 (F1).
Let’s explain this in plain English:
An investor has the option of investing in either U.S. dollar or Euro. With higher rate, dollar asset produces a higher return. To make Euro more attractive, the investor would need more euros per unit of U.S. dollar. Therefore, Euro depreciates against the dollar. This is the logic behind IRP. It is called the Law of One Price .
If we believe that the Fed would keep raising interest rates, and it would do so at a faster pace than the ECB, then Euro would continue to fall. By how much? You could try to work out your own estimate by plugging in different Fed and ECB interest rates at the IRP formula.
I recognize that many factors would impact exchange rates. A framework using IRP is a simplified but effective way to construct a FX trading strategy. All the other factors can be viewed as variables influencing the rate decisions.
Asides from the mathematical approach, we could consider a country’s currency to be reflective of its economic strength. Looking back at the last two decades since Euro’s inception, the European Union, and the Euro Zone in particular, has been outpaced by the United States in terms of GDP. Taking the GDP in 2000 as a baseline index 100, the U.S. has now reached 155, while the EU (excluding Britain) is at 133, and the Euro zone at 128, according to an analysis by the Economist.
Whether it was the Subprime crisis in 2008, or the debt crisis in 2010, it took the EU economy much longer to recover comparing to the United States.
Brexit raised a red flag of the long-term viability of a political and economic union of independent countries. If history is a guide, I can’t find a good case where one common currency existed among multiple nations for an extended period of time. Exceptions could only be found between an empire and its colonies. Europe would strive, but would a common currency need to be there?
A short position in CME Euro-FX futures (6E) is a way to express this bearish view. The March (6EH3) contract may be a good choice. It was settled at 1.02415 on July 12th. There are five Fed meetings between now and contract expiration. Each rate-setting decision could potentially shock the Euro into further decline, in my opinion. Each contract has a notional value of €125,000. CME requires an initial margin of $2,400. For a short position, a decline (increase) of 1 basis point (0.01%) in the exchange rate of Euro will result in $12.50 in gain (loss) in your account balance.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
The Euro is under major monthly support Euro / Dollar Parity is in the news, but honestly this currency can go much lower after a minor bounce. Any test of 1.04-5 is an objective short on the euro. Targets are .70 and .55. I know that seems improbable, but the fibs and descending triangle pattern are pointing to those kinds of levels. You can check out what I say about the dollar which I've been bullish on since it was in the 80's.
EU Futures Long as smart money loadsWas in long earlier in the week but could see smart money was going to load at lower prices so closed with small profit and re-entered 20 pips lower at 1.0460. This chart also illustrates the importance of the Gann 2 day swing chart rule for predicting prices. As you can see the counter trend lower happened right on the 50% and now the rejection of the C-D move which indicates sign of strength.
Also keep in mind we have triple bottoms on the daily and weekly along with 2 months holding at the same low level indicating a sign of strength for now.
Potential Bearish ContinuationOn the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and in a descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will continue to drop from the pivot at 1.05470 at the pullback resistance in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 1.03665 at the swing low in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection and 78.6% fibonacci projection. Alternativly, price may reverse off the pivot and rise to the 1st resistance at 1.06560 at the multiple swing highs in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
DON'T BE DECEIVED BY THE LOWER TIME FRAMES BULLISHNESS OF EURO.🦊¶REDFOX CAPITAL™¶🦊,
EURO FUTURES TA
On a MARCO level technical perspective only this rings bearishnes even the deaf could hear it.
Euro have been on a downward spiral for several months now with some bounces here and there like the one we are seeing on the LTFS don't be fooled by it.
My object here is to SHORT only!
I want to see late shorts get taken out in form of Liquidity before I SELL!!!
#Redfoxxx AKA #BrilliantBrianThaBrianiac
