E71! trade ideas
Week 8 review : Raising yield push DXY higherThis week major focus :
FOMC chair Powell's repeated insistence that policy will remain accommodative and mushrooming global recovery signals in a range of markets.
Next week preview :
Biden stimulus plan progress.
Pfizer, Moderna and J&J vaccine result .
6E1! eur/usd Setup IdeaI will be looking for opportunities for a long position. The price has returned to the value range with a fairly good volume. If it turned out that it reads the chart well, it will show one of the scenarios for a possible connection. A scenario that is quite conservative and has a relatively good risk-reward ratio.
1. Red square. I will expect sellers here. I hope that the level will be defended and the sale will be absorbed by passive traders (limit orders). How long will it take? It's hard to say. When the pressure goes away, I would like to see that the price goes down by a few / a dozen ticks, but this time without pressure or volume. Then, if the setup is to work, there should be traders with aggressive buy orders across the market.
2. Green square. This is her place where, with the above in mind, I would look for a position.
What's the funniest thing about this game is that I don't care what happens. And I have absolutely no idea which way the listing of this contract will go. The price may just jump up or down. If it jumps up, good. I will be looking for the next configuration for a long position. If it jumps down, good too. After all, a short position is also a position.
The most important thing in trading, in my opinion, is to have well-defined conditions for concluding a transaction and the context of this venture.
Greetings.
6E1! AMT RULEZOf course, I have no idea what will happen. If someone claims that he knows, he is a clown and ignorant (or works for a goldman and has the volume to move the market;)) But I know what I will do if one of the scenarios comes true. The little blue squares are the markings where I would be looking for L position.
If it were to specifically collapse, 1.20500 could stop the storm for a while. The previous distribution range where the price was most accepted. The stimulus is coming, so the chance for the euro is high.
Good luck!
EURO FX FUTURES The price has breached the strong resistance 1.21310
Expected scenarios:
The collapse continues to 1.20820 on condition that the price remains below the previously mentioned resistance
But if it breaks the resistance 1.21310 to the upside, it can buy and target 1.21765 as long as the price remains above the resistance
EURUSD - possible near end of wave 5Looking at the chart of the euro futures contracts we may spot a possible Elliott Wave Pattern labeled as 1 to 5. It is a potential impulse wave that may soon come to an end. The theoretical resistance for wave 5 is set by 161,8 Fibonacci expansion of wave 1 placed at the end of wave 4.
If this area is defended the market may retrace back as potential wave A in a larger corrective movement. Then the first theoretical target may be located at the lower limit within the channel or even at the low of wave 4.
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Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.
Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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Feeding Frenzy 8 AMThis pattern first started once a week in November and has slowly developed into every other day, retail longs on the extended Euro Dollar have been pumping liquidity to short sellers. The following day usually has a nice pump and the lower lows and higher highs as the "uptrend" continues. Now that stimulus has passed I believe that more big sellers will begin to step into the market and price will correct on EURUSD. I noticed this pattern when looking at OBV and the negative divergence shows that this floating to higher prices can only go on for so long before someone hits the kill switch. Something else to note is the correlation between the S&P 500 and the DXY index. They are inverse, and all that it might take for a correction of the Euro Futures is bad week for the S&P.
TRADE IDEA: /6E JANUARY 8TH 1.195/1.2 LONG PUT VERTICALMetrics:
Max Profit: 337.50
Max Loss: 287.50
Break Even: 1.1977
Notes: A bearish assumption directional shot at resistance. Alternatively, FXE January 15th 111/113 long put vertical, 1.05 max profit, .95 debit/max loss, break even 112.05 vs. 112.13 spot (although it's trading above that pre-market).
