E71! trade ideas
Why the EURUSD might trade higherFollowing Powell's statement at the annual Jackson Hole symposium – “We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.” – markets seem more inclined towards expecting another rate hike in the US. This move, in our analysis, provides the Federal Reserve (the Fed) with added flexibility for future decisions. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) echoes a similar sentiment, insisting on remaining stringent as the battle against inflation is ongoing.
A dive into headline & core inflation shows a decline in the former for both the EU and US. However, Europe's core inflation remains stubbornly high, without evident signs of decreasing. Further, Europe's robust PMI, in contrast to the sub-50 US print, paired with this sticky core inflation, indicates that the ECB might maintain its tight monetary stance to combat inflation.
The Futures and OIS market can give us some insights on market participants’ expectation of the forward rate path. Here we see similar expectations of an increase in rates before cuts are priced in.
Generally speaking, interest rate differential is inversely related to the EURUSD, hence in the chart above we see this relationship in play with the US-EU Interest Rate, roughly marking out the inverted EURUSD path. From 2019 to 2022, where we saw the rate differential held constant after a period of decrease, the EURUSD traded higher during that period. Hence whether the ECB tightens further or keep in line with market expectations, we see potential for the EURUSD to trade higher given historical precedence.
The US dollar is currently hovering near the upper threshold of a descending channel. The previous 3-times when RSI reached such levels marked the turnaround point for the dollar.
On a longer-term chart, we see the EURUSD trading right above the 1.08 level which has been a key support & resistance level going back to 1970s.
Zooming in, the EURUSD pair now trades on the lower band of an ascending channel with RSI pointing oversold. Again, the past 3 times when RSI were at this level marked the reversal point for the EURUSD.
Hence, whether the ECB reacts with more hikes as expected by market participants, or it stays the expected course, the EURUSD is likely to trade higher as we look back in history. Supported by technical, and the potential for a weaker dollar as it trades near resistance, we favour a long position in the EURUSD Futures at the current levels of 1.0827 with a stop loss at 1.05 and take profit at 1.130. Each 0.00005 increment per EUR in the EURUSD futures contract equals to 6.25$.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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Euro Futures 6E1 Finding Support?Looking a 4 hr line chart at some reoccuring retrace levels and time cycles we can see price is reaching the 70% retrace level of our last major uptrend. The question is will it be "retrace" and bounce or break the low of the last major swing signaling a reversal of the longer running macro uptrend.
Looking at the log chart we can see the rate at which price is dropping is slowing signaling we may be finding support at a 70% retrace of the last swing.
IF we are finding support a reasonable expecation would be to form a range of accumulation before seeing a push to up side.
The current chart is pointing out squares of time and price from the down trend giving high probability price levels and time cycles of future trend.
First major point of resistance is the 1.96 zone where we have the .236 retrace level of the entire down trend IF it is has bottomed, the 50% retrace level from the last high of the downtrend, the 45 degree mark from squaring the last down trend, and the 200 EMA on the 4hr.
Just looking at the chart this zone could be an accumulation zone for a continuation of macro uptrend or if we are seeing a macro reversal it could also be seen as point of rejection and continuation of our current down trend.
Current trading plan is to trade the current range from this hopeful low to local resistance.
IF it brakes to the upside next local target would be the swing golden pocket.
IF it brakes to the down side there is a small gap to fill down to the 1.081 area.
Trade Well......
EURUSD Bullish Trade IdeaThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
EURUSD Bearish Short-Term Trade IdeaThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
Trading the MegaphoneEuro is trending up while the dollar is heading lower. We're at the bottom of the broadening formation, a break in LTF structure is a good trigger for a long to the top of the megaphone, not that I believe in LTF structure breaks per se - I'm already long.
Trade will take 2 - 4 days I expect. You can take profit at the top of structure (BSL), at the top of the broadening formation or at the daily swing high all the way up at 1.236 :)
EURUSD (6E) Short-term Bullish Trade IdeaThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
Best Exit and Profit Taking using Only Support and ResistanceHey Traders so today I wanted to share what I believe to be 2 of the best exit strategies using only Support and Resistance on your Daily Charts. Also another way of staying 3 days behind the market and using a trailing stop. The nice thing about these strategies is they don't require any indicators just drawing a few lines on your chart.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
EURUSD impulsive waveboth 4H and m30 show impulsive wave structure
price is now on 50% fib so there are possibility that price will strongly continue go down
bearish candle pattern on m30 confirm this entry
surely that there are possibility to loss too because corrective wave is difficult to predict
but if our guess is right RR is good
EUR FUTURES BULLISH ANALYSISGood day traders i will be executing buy entries on the EURUSD when the EUR FUTURES market trades to our daily FVG+OB which happens to be at equilibrium,i am hoping it traders slightly below equilibrium into a discount then shoots to the upside
entry:1.09820
SL:1.08640
TP:1.15050
EURUSD Short Trade IdeaThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
EURUSD 22.7.2023🎯 EUR pullback and down again.
🔵 Trading Plan
One Shot One Kill // Intraday setups in the IPDA stage 3.
🟠Rules
- No liquidity raid = No trade
- Never buy high and never sell low
- Time > Price
🔴Entry time
- London Session 04:00 - 05:30 am NY time
- New York Session - 10:00 - 11:00 am NY time
“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
Dave FX Hunter
EURUSD 22.7.2023🎯 EUR pullback and down again.
🔵 Trading Plan
One Shot One Kill // Intraday setups in the IPDA stage 3.
🟠Rules
- No liquidity raid = No trade
- Never buy high and never sell low
- Time > Price
🔴Entry time
- London Session 04:00 - 05:30 am NY time
- New York Session - 10:00 - 11:00 am NY time
“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
Dave FX Hunter
EURUSD Bearish Trade IdeaThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
volume analysisEURUSD is super clear up trend structure
after many impulsive up wave
price take a rest on corrective phase
the problem is corrective phase have so many structure so we don't know support on 1.125 can hold the price or not
now let talk about volume analysis on m30 chart
if you check on 17 July 8:30 and 18 July 8:30 CT time (20:30 in Thailand time)
you can see that very big volume happen their on red bar
if you see footprint chart from order flow analysis platform like ATAS NINJA Jigsaw
too bad Tradingview cannot see this data
you will see big buy limit order see their
that probably (not surely) big player absorb the selling from retail
I know no one read this LOL
I just note for myself to comeback and review my trade ^^
#6EU2023, Euro Trade Plan The appearance of naked puts in liquid areas on a rising trend is an excellent chance to start long positions. The option position created on July 14 is substantial enough to make an impact and, most likely, continue the Euro's trend move.
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EURUSD Futures (M6EU2023) ShortThe micro EURUSD is in a confirmed trend change from bullish to bearish. The DXY is Bullish. Price has retested the new bearish trend line establishing a new bearish trend, creating a bearish trend trade setup. It is an opportunity to enter early at a good price.
Trade Ideas:
Take the next 240 candle short on a sell stop at 1.0948.
Stop at 1.0988 (above the wick on the engulfing candle to the left).
Target at 1.0860 just above support.
Set an alert at 1.0904 because of a small supply zone there. Trade will need close monitoring here.
Use at your own risk because only you own your risk.
EURUSD - Short-Term Bullish AnalysisThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC