Daily Outlook 11.03.2024 (The most important levels...)Here we can see the NWOG, NDOG, Yesterdays LOD & HOD and The LOD from friday. If we hit that, it would be an immediate rebalance on the daily chart, which is pretty strong!
NNNASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures
22,874.25USDD
−84.75−0.37%
As of today at 11:21 GMT
USD
No trades
NQ1! trade ideas
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 3/11/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 19461.50
- PR Low: 19370.25
- NZ Spread: 204.0
Key scheduled economic events:
10:00 | JOLTS Job Openings
Value decline continues, finding 19200s inventory
- Advertising continued selling, keeping slight gap above previous session high open
- Holding auction above previous session close at the lows
Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 3/11)
- Session Open ATR: 498.26
- Volume: 83K
- Open Int: 297K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From BA ATH: -13.2% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Nasdaq Potential Huge BounceI post this again, because from my last post, some only see a confusing picture instead of the chart.
Price nearly reached the L-MLH of the Red Fork.
This is a huge price stretch and chances are super high that we will see a big bounce to the upside.
As for PTG's I focus on the Red, and the Orange Centerline.
NQ Daily Update - RSI and MFI oversoldThe last time daily indicators went this oversold on NQ is when the Fed raised rates. The market did bounce up though as you can see with the overlay.
As I stated on the ES chart, futures left an open gap last night and I expect that to fill. Expecting a bounce soon, just not sure when, lol.
I think it's safe to buy ETFs and stocks for the bounce, but be careful with call options. Given the premium, timing will need to be more precise.
Bears in Control, but Oversold Signals Hint at Squeeze RiskThe break of uptrend support dating back to the start of the artificial intelligence (AI) frenzy in early 2023 may embolden Nasdaq 100 bears to seek a far larger downside unwind than what’s already been seen. Coming on the back of last week’s disintegration of the 200DMA—and with valuations still stretched relative to historic averages while competition in the AI space from China seemingly grows by the day—the technical and fundamental ducks are lining up for such an outcome.
While recent price action has been entirely bearish, sustained directional moves rarely unfold without the occasional countertrend interruption. With RSI (14) now in oversold territory on the daily timeframe and Nasdaq 100 futures finding some buyers between minor support at 19300–19140, this may provide a platform for some form of countertrend squeeze.
If bids continue to repel bears on dips beneath 19,300, longs could be established above the level with a stop below 19140 for protection against a continuation of the prevailing bearish trend. Former uptrend support sits just below 19,900 and looms as a potential trade target. Alternatively, if the price breaks through 19,140 convincingly, bears may set their sights on support at 18,387.
Patience may be required for those considering the setup. Watching USD/JPY for signs of capital flight back into the yen may also be advisable given the skittish environment.
Good luck!
DS
2025-03-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaq e-mini
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Strongest bear bar after a 11 bar bear micro channel on the daily chart, that broke below the big bull trend line. I will never see this as even more bearish. Much more likely is that we are very close to an intermediate bottom and squeeze shorts big time. Only looking to long this. After a decent bounce we can talk lower targets again.
current market cycle: trading range - only daily closes below 20000 mark the end of this bull trend
key levels: 19000 - 21000
bull case: Bulls have to trap bears here or we will go for 19000 or even 18867 (2024-09 low) tomorrow. Bulls do not have many arguments until they produce better buying pressure. Every small rip is sold and market stayed below the 15m 20ema the whole day after it broke below it early in EU session. Bulls must claim 19600 for further upside and next would be weekly open at 19668. If bulls get above 19700, I think most bears will give up and wait for 20000 and either of the bear trend lines to be hit before shorting again.
Invalidation is below 19250.
bear case: Below 19250 we most likely go for 19000 or even 19668. Bears are still in full control but the selling is so overdone and climactic and any bigger bounce will likely do for this to completely melt much higher before bears join again. What are the odds of bears just falling through the multi-year bull trend line and keep going? Very. Very. Low. Not impossible but certainly nothing I would bet money on. For now it’s likely best to wait an see if bulls get make higher highs. If I had to guess I’d say we could have seen the lows today but it’s pure guesswork. Shorts make no sense down here and I will only look for longs for at least 19800.
Invalidation is above 20200.
short term: Can only be neutral for now. Having a bullish bias but bulls are not doing enough for now. I wait. 20k is my first target.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000.
trade of the day: Shorts once market broke below 20000 and failed to get above it again.
NQ Range (03-10-25)Going back to Daily Post updates from weekly, during these very fun times (selling is back). I would not count of a Gap move at Sunday O/N open. No gap, look for 1st move set up with counter move as larger move. KL's to watch 20,470 Upper & 19,874 Lower. Blue shaded zone is sideways or Upper KL rejection pull back zone / Lower KL support lift zone. White SZ (near Turd KL) may be the weekly sideways play and set up for next move lower (should it not breakout up). Sellers need buyers in order to exit, since 2/21 NQ volume has basically doubled (mostly selling or the addition of selling). The battle will increase so expect some off session (long side) Rig tricks & treats. Let's see the GAP Open to start this one out.
Double Bottom pattern: A bullish reversal signal The Double Bottom pattern is a classic reversal formation that signals a potential trend change from bearish to bullish. It occurs after a prolonged downtrend when price forms two distinct lows at a similar level, indicating strong support.
How to Identify:
✔️ Two Lows: Price touches the same support level twice, forming a "W" shape.
✔️ Resistance Breakout: The neckline (resistance level) marks the breakout zone.
✔️ Trend Reversal Confirmation: Once price breaks above resistance, momentum shifts bullish.
Interpretation:
In this chart, we see a clear bearish trend, followed by two attempts to break below the same support level.
After failing to break lower, buyers regained strength, pushing price above resistance, confirming the bullish reversal.
Once resistance turns into support, traders often enter long positions, targeting higher levels.
What’s Next?
A sustained breakout could fuel further upside momentum. However, watch for potential false breakouts and retracements back to support before continuation.
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/07/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/07/2025
📈20328 20420 20515
📉19860 19765
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
NASDAQ Futures Fall Following S&P's Worst Week Since SeptemberUS stock futures fell solidly Monday as investors and traders took the weekend to process the February jobs report and prepared for a busy week of economic data, headlined by a report on inflation amid concerns over its resurgence under President Trump's unpredictable trade policy.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) fell 1%, while futures attached to the benchmark S&P 500 (ES=F) also dropped 1% after the index posted its worst week since September. Futures tied to the Nasdaq (NQ=F) also slipped around 1.79%.
All three major indexes looked set to build on losses of more than 2% last week.
For the Nasdaq Composite, the resistance point has been faded with selling pressure increasing, the 18,500 point could serve as support point for Nasdaq price index. However, should a trend reversal occur, the break above the resistant pivot may catalyse a bullish spree as industries, investors and traders are dissecting President Trump's trade policy.
[Opinion] Long position for NQ(NAS100)It is just idea and my view of trend.
Based on W and 4H, it is confirmed now we are on downtrend.
Now down to 15M, temporarily we are on uptrend for liquidity.
Thus, I will take long position
1. Entry: 20159 - 20161 range
2. Stop Loss: 20100 -20070 range (but will trigger stop loss automatically at 20070 in my case).
3. Take Profit: 21000 - 21005 range (but will close all position maximum at 21005 In my case).
If everything will happen what I am looking for,
I will take short position at 21020 - 21050.
Please share your view.
NQ - Volume cluster On NQ , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 19880.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
Strong rejection of lower prices and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 3/10/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 20147.00
- PR Low: 19995.50
- NZ Spread: 339.0
No key scheduled economic events
Advertising rotation long potential above Friday's high
- Auction likely to return to 200, filling weekend gap down
- Holding auction inside Friday's range
- Mechanically pivoting off 19900s inventory
Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 3/10)
- Session Open ATR: 462.08
- Volume: 50K
- Open Int: 279K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -10.4% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher, forming a long lower wick as it rebounded. On continuous futures, the index bounced off the 60-week MA, while the daily chart shows a recovery after briefly dropping below the 240-day MA. Looking at the weekly chart, two weeks ago, a large bearish candle decisively broke below a key range, and last week, the Nasdaq failed to break above the 3-week MA, leading to further downside. This week, however, a rebound toward the 5-week MA near 21,050 remains possible.
On the daily chart, the Nasdaq successfully found support near 19,800, forming a potential range-bound structure. Although a technical target exists at the 60-day MA near 21,500, the downtrend remains strong, meaning that a full recovery may take time. Instead of an immediate rally, the Nasdaq may consolidate around the 240-day MA, making a range-trading strategy more effective.
On the 240-minute chart, the Nasdaq formed a bullish divergence, triggered a golden cross, and started to rebound. As long as price continues to base at the lows, further buying attempts may emerge, making chasing short positions risky. This week, traders should monitor Wednesday’s CPI report and Thursday’s PPI report, as both could increase market volatility.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed higher, supported by potential sanctions on Russia. On the weekly chart, oil dropped to the 240-week MA before rebounding, but last week’s bearish close triggered a sell signal. Since this sell signal occurred near the zero line, further downside remains possible, making chasing long positions risky. A key upside level to watch is the 3-week MA at $68, while support is expected around the $66–67 range, where a short-term double-bottom formation could develop.
On the daily chart, if oil continues to rebound, traders should watch for resistance at $68, while stopping out below the $65 previous low remains essential. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has formed a golden cross, with momentum gradually shifting higher. However, since the gap between the MACD and the zero line remains large, selling pressure could reemerge on rallies. Traders should focus on buying dips at strong support levels while keeping strict stop-loss management in place.
Gold
Gold closed lower, remaining within a range-bound market structure. The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report triggered significant volatility, but the daily MACD is now turning downward, increasing the risk of additional selling pressure.
On the weekly chart, gold is forming a long-term consolidation range. If this week’s candle closes lower, the weekly MACD may form a bearish crossover, increasing the likelihood of a negative divergence pattern. This makes chasing long positions riskier.
On the daily chart, despite short-term weakness, the MACD and signal line remain far from the zero line, meaning that intermittent rebound attempts are still possible. For now, the lower Bollinger Band serves as key support, reinforcing a range-bound strategy. On the 240-minute chart, $2,940 has become a strong resistance level, and a sell signal has been triggered. For now, traders should focus on selling into rallies while looking for buying opportunities at lower levels. If gold breaks above $2,940, a third wave of buying momentum could emerge, making it essential to adapt to market conditions dynamically. Gold is also likely to react to Wednesday’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI reports, increasing potential volatility.
U.S. market volatility is rising sharply, as seen in the VIX index, which surged above 22 last week. Using technical tools like VIX analysis, moving averages, and MACD strategies can help improve market navigation. Stay disciplined, manage risk carefully, and have a successful trading week! 🚀
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#202510 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bear rejections around 20000 are getting stronger and we could have seen the intermediate lows on Friday. I lean heavily bullish since we have touched the big bull trend line and market reacted there as expected. Bounce up could easily go for 21k again, which is the 50% retracement. Again. Bears need to form a proper wider channel down if they want lower prices. The past 3 weeks of selling were getting climactic and unsustainable.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19500 - 21400
bull case: Very bullish daily bar on Friday and bulls need follow-through to trigger a short squeeze. They want at least 21k again and if bears are not strong enough there, this selling could already be over again. 50% retracement is 21k and two big magnets are enough for me to have this as my main target next week. Bulls have to stay above 20k or they risk more poking at the bull trend line that started 2 years ago. On the monthly chart we are in a perfect bull wedge that has room to the upside and a bounce would fit the structure much more than a break below 19700.
Invalidation is below 20400.
bear case: Bears have shown strength for 3 consecutive weeks but are they really gonna fight the big trend line before we had a bounce? Selling around 20k is bad, no matter how you look at it. My measured move target for the bears was 19600 and the low was 19766. I really don’t have much for the bears at these lows. Sure we can continue down but it’s very unlikely. Best bears could get is probably sideways movement and if they are really strong, we stay below 20400.
Invalidation is above 20400.
short term: Neutral until bulls continue. Heavy bullish bias going into next week. I doubt we go much lower than 19766. 21k is my target.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Updated possible bigger wave thesis for the next months. Until we have a W2 and new lows afterwards, it’s a rough guess.
Daily levels for the week Price stoped and reject the area leaving equal lows at 19,800. I don’t want to see the lows taking out yet. I want to see a retracement higher to the Weekly SIBI Imbalance.
I want to see an Open, manipulation lower, find some support at the C.E of the wick then start working with the move higher to take the buy stops on previous days high.
NQ1!: Intraday Levels: March 9th/10th These are the levels for NQ1! Intraday.
I usually trade NQ1! in the evening and then flip to SPX during NYSE hours.
The expectation on NQ1! for tonight/tomorrow is to actually hit quite a few of these levels based on the volatility. Theoretically we should see retracement to the low levels with an 80% probability of retracing to 19,991.
But I do expect to see both upside and downside in the span of Asia, Europe and US trading session, snagging both at least the initial low and the initial high target.
The numbers on the levels represent the raw probability score of hitting the levels.
Safe trades, as always and not advice as always :p.
NQ Weekly, Daily & 4 HR Chart Bullish Confirmation for Sun MonLooking for a bounce after 3 straight weeks of lower prices here starting with Sunday night's open barring any Trump/geopolitical news. Monday is a No Red Folder News Day, which also makes it look good for the longs. However, starting on Tuesday and for the rest of the week, we have red folder news every day...
Tue
Mar 11
10:00am
USD
JOLTS Job Openings
Wed
Mar 12
8:30am
USD
Core CPI m/m
Thu
Mar 13
8:30am
Core PPI m/m
PPI m/m
Unemployment Claims
226K 221K
Fri
Mar 14
10:00am
USD
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
