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E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures (Jun 2016)EE

E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures (Jun 2016)

4,417.25USDD
−7.50−0.17%
At close at Jun 17, 2016, 13:29 GMT
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NQM2016 trade ideas

The Last Batch of Good DataCME: Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Index Futures ($MNQ) #TheFuturesLeap #Microfutures Investors have defied the Wall Street adage of “Sell in May and Go Away”. The S&P 500 rose by 6.2% in May while the Nasdaq climbed 9.6%. Both indices notched their best monthly results since 2023. The Dow Jones gained 3.9% for the month. The S&P stood out as it recorded its best performance for the month of May since 1990. Several favorable factors propelled May’s impressive stock index gains: • Early-May employment data pointed to continued strength, raising risk appetite. • A temporary U.S.-China tariff reduction for 90 days helped calm trade tensions. • Robust earnings from Nvidia and Super Micro Computer fueled rally momentum. Meanwhile, these unfavorable events also occurred in May: • Moody’s downgraded the US sovereignty rating. By now, the US has lost its AAA ratings from all three major credit agencies. • The 20-year Treasury bond auction received a cold shoulder in the bond market. • The trade talk between U.S. and China has been stalled apparently. In any other time, bad news of such significance would send the stock market into a free fall. But investors turned a blind eye to them. This highlighted a bullish market sentiment, a prevailing appetite for risky assets amid uncertainty in geopolitical and trade tensions. Underpinning the rising stock prices are solid macroeconomic data for the month of April and strong Q1 earnings from major US corporations. Given that stock prices reflect expected future earnings, it is fair to ask: Will the data stay good? Import dependency is unlikely to change any time soon On May 30th, US Census Bureau reported that the U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed sharply in April, with the gap contracted 46.0% to $87.6 billion. Goods imports decreased by $68.4 billion to $276.1 billion. Exports of goods increased by $6.3 billion to $188.5 billion. What really happened is that there was a boost in imports in Q1 due to the front-running ahead of tariffs. This ended in April as the higher rates kicked in. If we take March out as an outliner, we will find that the April data is 9.7% higher than February. As a matter of fact, U.S. trade deficits in 2025 rose sharply comparing to 2023 and 2024 levels. With the US-China interim trade deal in effect from May 14th, we could expect large waves of imports to resume from now through August, pushing trade deficits even higher. The global supply chain is decades in the making. Its undoing will take years. Meanwhile, imports will pour in, only at higher costs due to the new tariffs and higher freight costs. My conclusion: U.S. trade deficit will grow bigger, at least for the remainder of 2025. Retail price hikes could cause inflation to rebound US retailers largely source their products overseas. Could they just “eat the tariffs?” • Walmart: FY2024 revenues $681 billion (+5.1% YoY). Net income jumped 25.3% to $19.4 billion, lifting its net profit margin to 2.9%. • Target: Revenue $107.4b (-1.6%). Net income $4.14b (+49%). Profit margin 3.9%. • Costco: Revenue $254.5b (+5.0%). Net income $7.37b (+17%). Profit margin 2.9%. • Walgreens: Revenue $147.66 billion (+6.17%). Net Income -$8.64 billion (-5.9%) • Amazon: Revenue $638.0b (+11%). Net income $59.2b (+95%). Profit margin 9.3%. Apparently, even the largest and the most efficiently run retail giants are operating with a razor-thin margin. Retailers really have no choice but to pass on the tariffs to consumers, in the form of higher prices. On May 15th, Walmart announced to raise prices starting in late April. The price hikes would accelerate in May, and a larger sting will start to be felt in June and July when the back-to-school shopping season goes into high gear. Other retailers are expected to follow suit. Walmart’s action provides air cover for the tens of thousands of retailers to raise their prices freely. My conclusion: Inflation will go up from May through the holiday season in December. Higher interest cost will eat into the bottom line While stock investors brushed off the Moody’s downgrade, the bond market has been in real trouble. As the US treasury bonds lost their “risk-free” status, debts of all kinds and all durations see a big spike in yield. Bond investors are undergoing a complete makeover of repricing bonds and reassigning a new “risk premium”. On May 21st, the U.S. Treasury held an auction for 20-year bonds that fell significantly short of expectations. The lack of bidders—an alarming indicator of waning confidence in the U.S. economy—resulted in the yield on these bonds skyrocketing to 5.1%. The bond yields go up even though the Fed holds rates steady. This indicates that central bank monetary policies are not very effective in shaping the long end of the bond market. Even if the Fed lowers the overnight Fed Funds rates, bond investors would still demand higher yield to compensate for the perceived risk increases for the once “risk-free” instruments. Commercial banks could keep interest rates high for mortgages, corporate bonds, auto loans and credit cards. As of June 2nd, the futures market puts the odds of the Fed holding rates unchanged at 95.4% for its June 18th FOMC meeting, according to CME Group FedWatch tool. www.cmegroup.com My conclusion: The Fed may have little appetite for cutting rates if inflation goes up. When they cut the overnight rates, businesses and households may not get any relief from high interest expenses. Trade tensions and geopolitical risks may stay elevated Before the ink dries on a temporary agreement, the trade talk between U.S. and China has been stalled. The minister-level negotiation has gone nowhere, and it may take presidential talk to salvage the agreement. At this point, we could not make any assumption about any trade agreement. Its shape and form and timing are uncertain. If the trade talk breaks down, we will see a new round of tariff reescalation and retaliation. On June 2nd, breaking news report that Ukraine carried out a large drone attack deep into the Russian territory. Russian retaliation is expected. After months of effort, potential ceasefire and peace negotiation could fall apart. My conclusion: Trade and geopolitical tensions are both escalating, after early signs of calming down. These would hurt economic growth and dent investor appetite for risk. Trading with Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Index Futures Based on my analysis above, I hold the opinion that good data may quickly turn bad in the coming weeks, and correction in the US stock market is imminent. Valuation at the current lofty level completely ignores the risk escalation closer on to us. Anyone sharing this view could express it by shorting the CME Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Index Futures. The Micro Nasdaq contract has a notional value of $2 times the index. At the Friday closing price of 21,578, each September contract is worth $43,156. The minimum margin for shorting one contract is $3,036 at the time of this writing. The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that, as of May 27th, the total open interest for Emini Nasdaq and Micro Nasdaq futures are 275,143 and 204,499 contracts, respectively. • Leverage Fund has 77,467 in long, 251,452 in short, and 10,472 in spreading • The long-short ratio of 1-to-3.2 (= 77467/251452) show that the “Smart Money” is very bearish on the Nasdaq while the index gained nearly 10% in May Hypothetically, if Nasdaq 100 were to pull back 5% before September, a short futures position will gain $2,157.8 (= 21578 * 0.05 * 2). The risk of shorting the Nasdaq is that the stock index continues to rally. To hedge the downside risk, the trader could set a stop-loss at his order. For example, a stop loss at 23,000 for a short order would set the maximum loss to $2,844 (= (23000-21578) x 2). Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
How to Identify Head and Shoulders?How to identify head and shoulders patterns? We’ll use the current example from the Nasdaq or the US markets. We can quite clearly observe that a potential head and shoulders formation is developing. This means that if the price breaks below the neckline, we may see a deeper correction from the April low. I will go through the rules on how to identify a head and shoulders formation. We will also cover how to recognize when the pattern is invalid — meaning the market may continue pushing above its all-time high. Finally, we’ll discuss how we can position ourselves early, before waiting for a break below the neckline for confirmation. Micro Nikkei Futures Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
CShort
by konhow
Nvidia Earnings Boost, Trade Tariffs Legitimacy, NQ trade ideaCME_MINI:NQ1! Big Picture Context: . NQ futures rallied after NVIDIA posted an earnings beat and after the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade blocked President Trump's Liberation Day tariffs. Goldman Sachs noted that the ruling on Liberation Day tariffs gives the administration 10 days to halt tariff collection, but does not affect sectoral tariffs. The administration can still impose across-the-board and country-specific tariffs under other legal authorities. Jobless claims and continuing claims have come in higher. What has the market done? The rally faded in the overnight session. However, the catalysts provided energy for prices to move higher. Currently, price is trading above the prior week’s high, yesterday’s high, and it is also trading above the yearly open, and 2025 VPOC and mcVPOC for the last 3 weeks. What is it trying to do? The market is negating the recent bear market territory sell-off and negating a bear market rally. It is propelling higher. How good of a job is it doing? The market has created good structure and micro composites, despite some gaps left open, and it has created higher lows since last Friday. What is more likely to happen from here? Scenario 1: Long Continuation In this scenario, we are looking for NQ to turn at the immediate 2025 LVN support area. If it edges higher, we will be looking for potential long opportunities above the 21710–21720 area, targeting overnight highs and potentially the next HVN. Scenario 2: Gap Close and Reversal In this scenario, we are looking for a pullback, testing pHi and pWk-Hi. We will look for a rounded base that consolidates here on a lower timeframe, such as the 5-minute timeframe, and look for a reversal back towards the 21710–21720 level. pWk-Hi: prior Week's High pHi: prior Day's High HVN: High Volume Node LNV: Low Volume Node VPOC: Volume Point of Control C: Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP) mC: micro-Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
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by EdgeClear
Will Musk–Trump Ceasefire Fuel Friday Rebound?Thursday’s Tesla-driven sell-off in Nasdaq 100 futures may flip into a Friday squeeze ahead of nonfarm payrolls, with Politico reporting that Elon Musk and Donald Trump have a scheduled phone call later today to broker a peace deal. Given their sparring on Thursday was a key factor behind the Nasdaq nosedive, the headlines could help reverse the move into the European session. Traders may look to establish longs with a stop beneath the intersection of minor horizontal and uptrend support near 21,436. Thursday’s session high screens as a potential target. If the headlines are refuted—or price action fails to respond—both could be grounds to cut the trade. Good luck! DS
CLong
by FOREXcom
NASDAQ Meltdown Incoming? The Calm Before the Crash…🚨 Get ready! The NASDAQ is about to take us on a wild plunge straight to the depths of market hell... 💥🔥 Yes, yes, I know—they’ll say it’s all "because of this" or "due to that," the usual play-acting we’ve seen a hundred times before. Just another scene in the never-ending economic theater. 🎭 But here’s the forecast for tomorrow’s news: 📉 United States Initial Jobless Claims – possibly lower than expected? 📈 United States GDP Growth Rate QoQ – higher than expected? And then... yada yada yada. You know the rest. What does that mean? A chain reaction in risk-on assets — stocks, indexes, crypto — all heading for a steep drop. 💣📉 If you’re still a believer, here’s your solid proof — laid out 24 hours before it happens. Don’t say we didn’t warn you. The choice is yours: 💊 Red pill or blue pill?
CShort
by LEETALGOCONCEPT_Mentor
Volume Speaks Louder: My Custom Volume Indicator for Futures My Indicator Philosophy: Think Complex, Model Simple In my first “Modeling 101” class as an undergrad, I learned a mantra that’s stuck with me ever since: “Think complex, but model simple.” In other words, you can imagine all the complexities of a system, but your actual model doesn’t have to be a giant non-convex, nonlinear neural network or LLM—sometimes a straightforward, rule-based approach is all you need. With that principle in mind, and given my passion for trading, I set out to invent an indicator that was both unique and useful. I knew countless indicators already existed, each reflecting its creator’s priorities—but none captured my goal: seeing what traders themselves are thinking in real time . After all, news is one driver of the market, but you can’t control or predict news. What you can observe is how traders react—especially intraday—so I wanted a simple way to gauge that reaction. Why intraday volume ? Most retail traders (myself included) focus on shorter timeframes. When they decide to jump into a trade, they’re thinking within the boundaries of a single trading day. They rarely carry yesterday’s logic into today—everything “resets” overnight. If I wanted to see what intraday traders were thinking, I needed something that also resets daily. Price alone didn’t do it, because price continuously moves and never truly “starts over” each morning. Volume, however, does reset at the close. And volume behaves like buying/selling pressure—except that raw volume numbers are always positive, so they don’t tell you who is winning: buyers or sellers? To turn volume into a “signed” metric, I simply use the candle’s color as a sign function. In Pine Script, that looks like: isGreenBar = close >= open isRedBar = close < open if (not na(priceAtStartHour)) summedVolume += isGreenBar ? volume : -volume This way, green candles add volume and red candles subtract volume, giving me positive values when buying pressure dominates and negative values when selling pressure dominates. By summing those signed volumes throughout the day, I get a single metric—let’s call it SummedVolume—that truly reflects intraday sentiment. Because I focus on futures markets (which have a session close at 18:00 ET), SummedVolume needs to reset exactly at session close. In Pine, that reset is as simple as: if (isStartOfSession()) priceAtStartHour := close summedVolume := 0.0 Once that bar (6 PM ET) appears, everything zeroes out and a fresh count begins. SummedVolume isn’t just descriptive—it generates actionable signals. When SummedVolume rises above a user-defined Long Threshold, that suggests intraday buying pressure is strong enough to consider a long entry. Conversely, when SummedVolume falls below a Short Threshold, that points to below-the-surface selling pressure, flagging a potential short. You can fine-tune those thresholds however you like, but the core idea remains: • Positive SummedVolume ⇒ net buying pressure (bullish) • Negative SummedVolume ⇒ net selling pressure (bearish) Why do I think it works: Retail/intraday traders think in discrete days. They reset their mindset at the close. Volume naturally resets at session close, so by signing volume with candle color, I capture whether intraday participants are predominantly buying or selling—right now. Once again: “Think complex, model simple.” My Daily Volume Delta (DVD) indicator may look deceptively simple, but five years of backtesting have proven its edge. It’s a standalone gauge of intraday sentiment, and it can easily be combined with other signals—moving averages, volatility bands, whatever you like—to amplify your strategy. So if you want a fresh lens on intraday momentum, give SummedVolume a try.
CEducation
by QuantByBoji
2
Nasdaq Signals Economic Instability – Are You Watching CloselyDear traders, You may be witnessing a “first” — a pivotal moment right before things begin to spiral. We’re not fortune tellers. We don’t claim to predict the future. But what you’re about to read is based entirely on publicly available data, interpreted not through speculation, but through a deep, rational analysis of interconnected facts — the kind of connections that most overlook, and few dare to question. We may not know how the future is being orchestrated behind the scenes... But one thing seems certain: crisis always comes first... and then we are given a narrative to justify it — be it war, a pandemic, or a "global emergency." This is the correct sequence... and it’s the one they never teach you. Yet for those of us who navigate the financial markets, one question matters more than all others: How do we profit from this? We recently shared an important setup on the Nasdaq index, the benchmark that reflects — to a large extent — the true state of the U.S. economy. As a proxy for the 100 largest American corporations, the Nasdaq plays a critical role in signaling macro trends. And while some are just now waking up to the storm ahead, our outlook has been clear since October 2022: A major economic crisis was not only probable… it was inevitable. Some analysts chalk this up to uncontrolled money printing post-2019 as governments tried to patch the damage from the COVID-19 crisis. That’s one explanation. But at Glich, our vision is different. More complex. And for now… not something we can fully release. For years, strong correlations between risk markets — especially U.S. equities and crypto — held firmly in place. But something changed on May 30th, 2025. Completely and unmistakably. The link was severed. Now ask yourself: Why was Bitcoin created in the first place? It wasn’t just digital money. It was a bold, revolutionary idea. A system designed for a future economy no longer shackled by inflation, central banking failures, or hidden agendas. A fluid, transparent, and secure network for a world in desperate need of change. The current financial model is obsolete. It’s no longer evolving — just surviving. And it can no longer answer the challenges of what's to come. 2008 was not the collapse; it was the setup. A convenient pretext to slowly roll out something new. And "Satoshi Nakamoto"? Well, let’s just say... That name means more than you think. "HIDDEN INFORMATION" 👁️ What does NEO mean when he says: "This has all happened before… yet it’s happening for the first time"? And what does that have to do with us? This analysis is not just about charts or setups. It’s a hidden message — a spotlight on a once-in-a-generation opportunity lying in plain sight. But not everyone is trained to read between the lines. Let us ask: Why was Donald Trump specifically pushed into position? Why is crypto — after being suppressed, banned and attacked worldwide — now being quietly promoted and fast-tracked in legislation during 2024 and 2025? Something’s moving beneath the surface. 🔍 In summary: Expect a tidal wave of global crypto legislation to pass in the coming days/weeks/months. Crypto — particularly BTC and ETH — will become silent stores of value during the economic storm. Expect record-breaking levels: 400 K f o r B i t c o i n ∗ ∗ , ∗ ∗ 400KforBitcoin∗∗,∗∗40K for Ethereum. Yes, this may sound like science fiction… But keep your eyes and ears wide open. 👁️ And brace yourself for a historic collapse in U.S. equities. Possibly… something we’ve never seen before. The show is starting. And we won’t spoil the ending — because watching it unfold is part of the experience. But here’s what we can say, thanks to our proprietary algorithmic system: The U.S. economy will bleed. And crypto will blow past expectations — fulfilling the very purpose it was built for. 🛒 Load your bags in the coming days... Because when this train leaves the station — It won't be stopping for anyone.
CShort
by LEETALGOCONCEPT_Mentor
nasdaq trade ideaslooking to short the open on sunday with limit orders on potential lows needs to gap atleast 100 points for me to wanna short.. targeting levels lower, like a 50%-61.8% retracement from mays lows to current highs... if we do not have a good opening gap to the downside i see a potential reversal pattern forming... price has hit the 4h bollinger band lows.. giving a potential oversold signal. want to see price put a low in ontop of the 4h bollinger band mid point confirming the trend has reversed before going long..
C
by goat-farm
Nasdaq (NQ) Set to Complete 5 Waves, Defining Bullish TrendOn April 7, 2025, the Nasdaq (NQ), like other major global indices, marked a significant low, setting the stage for a potential bullish trend. From this low, the index has embarked on a five-wave impulsive rally. This a hallmark of bullish momentum in Elliott Wave theory. The initial advance, wave 1, peaked at 18,361.5. It was then followed by a corrective pullback in wave 2, which found support at 16,735. From there, the index resumed its upward trajectory in wave 3. The move up in wave 3 has an internal five-wave structure, signaling strong bullish momentum. Within wave 3, the first sub-wave, ((i)), concluded at 19,386.75. Subsequent pullback in wave ((ii)) found support at 17,700. The index then surged higher in wave ((iii)), reaching 21,562. Afterwards, a corrective dip in wave ((iv)) ended at 20,725.04, as illustrated on the one-hour chart. This wave ((iv)) correction unfolded as a double-three Elliott Wave pattern. Wave (w) bottomed at 21,072.75 and wave (x) peaked at 21,337.5. The final leg, wave (y), concluded at 20,725.04, completing the correction. The Nasdaq has since turned higher in wave ((v)). From the wave ((iv)) low, wave (i) advanced to 21,858.75, followed by a pullback in wave (ii) to 21,071.5. The index is now poised to extend higher in wave (iii) of ((v)), continuing the impulsive rally from the April 7 low. In the near term, as long as the pivotal low at 20,725.04 holds, any pullbacks are expected to find support in a 3, 7, or 11-swing pattern, paving the way for further upside. This technical setup suggests the Nasdaq is well-positioned to sustain its bullish momentum in the coming sessions, provided key support levels remain intact.
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by Elliottwave-Forecast
550+ Points Secured on MNQ | Bullish FVG + Gap Fill PrecisionIn today’s trade, we captured over 550 points on MNQ, banking a solid $288 profit on one clean, high-probability setup. Here’s the breakdown: Sunday’s open left a gap above, creating a clear target for buy-side liquidity. During Asia, price dipped into a validated Daily Bullish FVG, which had previously been traded through and reclaimed — a powerful sign of support. As price retraced into the 30m FVG and approached its high, I entered at 7AM, aiming for the equal highs above. Although we exited slightly early before the 10am open push, price ultimately fulfilled the full TP target, confirming the strength of the setup. 🎯 Bonus insight: As mentioned in the video, re-entry at the 50% of the 30m FVG was also valid — and it could’ve netted another 600+ points. That’s how powerful these FVG structures are when aligned with narrative and timing. Watch the full video to see the exact entry logic, TP strategy, and lessons learned. Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more trade recaps and educational content! #MNQ #NasdaqFutures #FVG #FairValueGap #LiquidityTrading #DayTradingStrategy #SmartMoneyConcepts #TradeRecap #FuturesMarket #GapFill #PriceAction
CLong
by BDripTradess
Nasdaq 100 Uptrend Approaching Important Resistance LevelHey Traders so today still looking at Nasdaq 100 now in strong uptrend but watch close this 21,867 level because a few things could happen. It could break through which would be bullish. It could pause and consolidate or it could reverse. Then we have the All Time High at 22,684 not too far away! So if your bullish wait for a closing price above that level 21,867 before continuing to buy or better yet let it break above them pullback then buy at a better price. However if you bearish I wouldn't try shorting until a break below support at 20,700 Always use Risk Management! (Just in case your wrong in your analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.) Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃 Clifford
C
by TradeTheIndex