2025-05-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Way tougher than it looks. Both sides have good arguments why this continues higher or why today marked the top. I have a heavy bearish bias but I confirmation would only be below 19090 and that’s 700 points down. I do think if bears can close the gap down to 19640, we retest 19300 and there we have the first bull trend line. Below we go for 19100, which was the us gdp spike low and below that is armageddon. Bulls have nothing but continuation of this short squeeze. When Apple earnings disappoint, you know things are about to get real ducking bad next.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls got 20000 and even went above the April high, now what? Technically still a lower high until they hit 20537. They have going for them that today was the first bear bar after 7 consecutive bull days. They now want to defend the open gaps to keep the momentum going. A pullback can go way deeper than most bulls will be comfortable with, given the current environment. I do think best bulls can hope for tomorrow, is to go sideways and close the week above 20000.
Invalidation is below 19640.
bear case: Bears have all the macro schmackro arguments on their side that you can try to come up with. Structure says bullish until bull trend lines are broken. First is around 19500 and second is the bigger one around 19000. Can bears get to either tomorrow? I do think so yes. This was a nasty short squeeze but we are right under the weekly 20ema, technically still a lower high because the last major lower high was 20536. On the weekly chart this is a textbook two-legged pullback to the moving average and I pray daily that we will get another huge leg down to 15000. How likely is that? For now, very unlikely. Still it would be more fun if the bull trend line from the covid lows would break and we transition into a trading range 15000 - 22000.
Invalidation is above 20140.
short term: Neutral. For tomorrow I can see 20100 not getting hit again and we sell-off. If markets stays above 19700, bulls remain in full control. full bear mode below 19640. Above 20140 we likely go for 20500+.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We are +18% from the lows and I do think, once this turns again, it will easily be the short trade of the year.
trade of the day: Longs near 1h 20ema. Was profitable couple of times. Sell-off into close was insider-trading. Absolutely certain that the earnings were leaked.
