Nq1Nq Reached the full -4 Stdv range from the the first swing of the week. Could possibly be a reversal here
NQ1! trade ideas
Brace for Impact: NQ’s 15% Plunge AheadAgainst the backdrop of current market conditions and based on the collected indicators, the situation for the NQ index appears rather unfavorable. If the price fails to hold above the 21850 level in the near term, there is a high probability of a scenario where the current price declines by 15%. This forecast is based on a comprehensive analysis that includes both technical and fundamental indicators.
Considering the possibility of further decline, I have decided to hold a short position, distributing profit targets to optimize risk. The strategy involves setting a stop-loss at 21860, which will help mitigate potential losses in the event of an unexpected market reversal. The profit target levels are broken down into several stages:
Take 1: 20900
Take 2: 20150
Take 3: 18500
Current data indicate the realism of this scenario, and therefore it is crucial to closely monitor market behavior, especially around the key level of 21850. Should that level be breached, the short-term decline may materialize faster than expected, making this trading idea particularly attractive for a short strategy.
Always remember the importance of risk management and regularly reviewing positions in response to market changes.
NQ1The trend the last couple days has been for price to run up to the hour -fvg that took out the previous day low, then drop some more.
This is what I’m looking for today with confirmation. Sweep Asia high, hit -2.5 Stdv then drop some more. Stdv based on the 15 min last swing low.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/25/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 21453.75
- PR Low: 21366.50
- NZ Spread: 195.25
Key scheduled economic events:
10:00 | CB Consumer Confidence
Value decline below daily Keltner average cloud to 21415 pivot
- Rotating back above previous session close, same as the low
- Quick dip into 21400 supply zone
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 2/25)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47%
- Session Open ATR: 351.43
- Volume: 44K
- Open Int: 287K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -4.5% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower following news that Microsoft is reducing its data center leasing. This week, the weekly chart suggests strong selling pressure, meaning long positions should be approached with caution.
On the daily chart, yesterday’s bearish candle confirmed the MACD sell signal, though the signal line remains above the zero line. In a broader context, a potential bounce could occur near key technical levels, including the lower Bollinger Band, 120-day moving average, and previous resistance zones.
Two days ago, a large bearish candle formed, and yesterday’s price action provided an opportunity to sell at the 3-day moving average. However, the market failed to test the 3-day MA during pre-market, leading to a false impression that the daily close was rejected at resistance. This illustrates how a daily close can sometimes be misleading, reinforcing the need to plan for alternative scenarios.
Since selling was executed at the 3-day MA yesterday, today’s key resistance level shifts to the 5-day moving average. Given the wide gap between price and the 5-day MA, a short-term rebound toward this level is possible.
On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and signal line have moved below the zero line, confirming continued selling pressure. However, since the Nasdaq has now entered a key support zone from a previous range, a short-term bounce toward the 5-day MA is possible. Traders should be cautious with short positions and focus on range-bound strategies rather than chasing downside momentum.
Crude Oil
Crude oil gapped down but managed to close higher. Despite the ongoing MACD sell signal on the daily chart, oil held above the key $70 support level.
This week’s weekly close is critical—if oil can end the week with a bullish candle, it could set the stage for a potential reversal. Holding above $70 remains the key technical factor, as a breakdown below this level would signal further downside.
On the daily chart, if the market fails to extend lower and instead rebounds, a MACD double-bottom pattern could develop, reinforcing potential upside momentum. However, since market flows remain mixed, it is best to treat oil as range-bound until a decisive break occurs.
On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and signal line are below the zero line, but price action is attempting a temporary rebound. While selling into rallies remains the preferred approach, traders should be cautious of event-driven volatility, as news developments could trigger sudden moves.
The $70 level remains the key downside level to monitor—if it breaks, selling pressure could intensify. Risk management is crucial when taking long positions.
Gold
Gold briefly made new highs before closing flat within its range. On the daily chart, the buy signal remains intact, but today’s session will be crucial in determining whether gold can sustain its momentum or enter a consolidation phase.
The key factor to watch is whether gold finds support at the signal line and continues higher or if a bearish crossover forms, leading to a range-bound correction.
On the 240-minute chart, a bullish MACD crossover has occurred, but for the uptrend to be confirmed, a strong breakout candle is needed. Without a significant bullish move, gold risks forming a bearish divergence, meaning that even if price breaks to new highs, the MACD may fail to confirm the move.
Since market flows remain mixed, a range-trading approach remains most effective, with a focus on buying at strong support levels and avoiding breakout trades. Traders should remain flexible and manage risk carefully, as both upside and downside scenarios remain open.
Looking at VIX futures, a strong buy signal has emerged at the zero level. Historically, VIX buy signals near zero tend to generate large price swings, suggesting that Nasdaq volatility may increase significantly. This increases the likelihood of a sharp correction, making risk management a top priority.
Stay disciplined, manage risk carefully, and wishing you a successful trading day! 🚀
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2025-02-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bears have turned 21650 (last weeks low) resistance, which is a huge sign of strength. Their problem is, that they could not break below the previous bear trend line and as long as that holds, we could have another bounce from 21400 up to 500 or 600. It’s a clear bear wedge and I think the next push down would bring us much closer to the bull trend line around 21200. For now I still don’t have any confidence in the bears to make new lows below 20900.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21000 - 21700
bull case: Bulls bought the dip but it keeps dipping. They failed to get above Friday’s low 21650 and after 2h of trying bulls gave up and we closed at new lows. Bulls now need to keep the bear wedge alive and buy 21400 to test back up to 21500 or 600. Market is respecting the trend lines and 1h ema. So don’t bet on a breakout of either. Wait for it to happen and tag along. Bulls can only turn this neutral with consecutive 1h closes above the 20ema.
Invalidation is below 21300.
bear case: Bears did amazing, which is surprising to me. They have no erased 2 weeks of gains in 3 days. Interesting to say the least. Lower targets are 21200, followed by 21000 and 20940. The bear wedge is valid until broken and I wait for the Globex open to see if bulls buy 21400 or bears want blood. I do think it’s more reasonable to expect the trend lines to hold and chop some up to at least 21500 and getting closer to the 1h ema before we can have a third leg down.
Invalidation is above 21700.
short term: Bearish near the 1h 20ema or upper bear wedge line. Would be amazing to see 21000 this week but for now I still have doubts.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000.
trade of the day: Buying the Globex open obviously and then shorting 21600 once we broke below the 15m ema again at bar 52 or 53.
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/24/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/24/2025
📈21845.50, 21893, 21940.50
📉21704, 21657, 21609
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
How to Use RSI for Buy & Sell Signals! The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that helps traders identify overbought and oversold market conditions. It ranges from 0 to 100, with two key levels:
✅ RSI < 30 → Oversold: The asset is potentially undervalued, indicating a buying opportunity.
🚨 RSI > 70 → Overbought: The asset is potentially overvalued, signaling a potential sell-off.
How to trade it?
- When RSI drops below 30 and then moves back up, it suggests a bullish reversal (see green arrows).
- When RSI goes above 70 and then turns down, it signals a potential downtrend (see red arrows).
How long should you hold your position?
A great tip is to stay in the trade until RSI approaches the opposite extreme. For example:
- If you enter when RSI is below 30, hold until it nears 60-70 for an optimal exit.
- If you sell when RSI is above 70, you can hold a short until it drops near 40-30.
In the chart, you can see how the RSI accurately predicted major turning points in the market!
⚠️ Pro Tip: RSI works best when combined with other indicators like volume or moving averages to confirm signals!
Slight Bearish to Neutral Hi Fellow traders
I'll be starting my regular post of my bias of the market. Using Futures market as a indication of potential strength and weakness of the market.
Bias will be neutral. But i do believe that market should be slightly bearish still on bigger time frame draw. But will really need see the PA and if it respect the Fair Value Gap.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/24/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 21774.50
- PR Low: 21676.75
- NZ Spread: 218.25
No key scheduled economic events
Daily levels updated: pivots and expansion
- Faded back to daily Keltner average cloud
- Auction holding above Friday's close, retraced ~20%
Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM 2/24)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47%
- Session Open ATR: 352.52
- Volume: 36K
- Open Int: 282K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -2.9% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
mnq 24/02(daily/4h/1h)future marketdaily is bullish consolidation
4h is down trend
1 h is down trend
we gen get short in good 1h supply zone.
1)because now mnq is in saturated sold out phase and like to come to exit that phase.
2)when price come to our zone in 1h,trend in 1 and 4 h still is down trend.
3)we dont meet any strong demand at this time that force us to up trend suddenly.
our zone has move out ,break out, fresh, in high curve, in direction of our trend
then short is logical.
Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower as the Consumer Sentiment Index declined. Last Thursday, I mentioned that the weekly chart suggested continued downside potential, and with Friday’s sharp decline, the weekly MACD has once again turned strongly bearish. Since the weekly MACD failed to form a bullish crossover and has now resumed its downward trajectory, this move can be seen as a whipsaw pattern followed by renewed selling pressure.
On the daily chart, the Nasdaq has dropped to the 60-day moving average, and the MACD has crossed below the signal line, triggering a sell signal. However, since Friday’s daily candle alone does not fully confirm the sell signal, today’s price action will be key in determining whether the sell signal is fully confirmed. The market decline was primarily driven by concerns over weaker consumer spending, tariff-related inflation expectations, and broader economic uncertainty. Since a large bearish candle has formed on the daily chart, the market should be approached with a sell-biased strategy. Given the strong resistance zones, selling near the 3-day moving average upon any rebound would be an effective approach.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has dropped sharply, pushing the signal line below the zero level. However, a short-term bounce may occur due to oversold conditions, making it important to watch for early support levels in the pre-market session. A range-bound approach remains favorable in the short term.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed lower, pressured by expectations of increased oil supply from Iraq. On the daily chart, a buy signal appeared on Friday, but as mentioned earlier, it was not fully confirmed. Instead, oil closed lower, leading to a failed bullish signal and renewed downward momentum in the MACD. This shift in momentum suggests that selling pressure is increasing, making it more likely that oil will struggle to sustain a bullish breakout.
On the weekly chart, the MACD has not yet crossed below the signal line, meaning that some rebound potential remains. However, if oil closes the week with a bearish candle, a weekly sell signal could be triggered. The $70 level remains a key support zone. Until $70 is broken, oil should be treated as range-bound. However, if $70 is breached, downside momentum could accelerate, making a sell-biased strategy more favorable.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has dropped below the zero line, while the signal line remains above it. This suggests that some support may still exist near $70, but if the signal line also drops below zero, selling pressure could intensify further. Risk management is crucial for long positions in this environment.
Gold
Gold closed flat, remaining within a range-bound market structure. On the weekly chart, the bullish trend remains intact, but the market is now in a potential correction zone. On the daily chart, the MACD and signal line are nearly converging, making today’s price action critical in determining whether gold will break higher or enter a consolidation phase.
On the 240-minute chart, gold is trading sideways at recent highs, reinforcing the range-bound nature of the market. The MACD failed to maintain bullish momentum and has started turning downward, but since it remains above the zero line, even if gold declines, it is likely to bounce back within the range. However, if the 240-minute MACD falls below zero and the signal line follows, this could trigger a sharp correction following the recent rally. Traders should watch this development closely.
This week, key events include NVIDIA earnings(Wednesday), U.S. GDP report(Thursday), PCE inflation data(Friday). As the week progresses, market volatility is expected to increase, making risk management a top priority.
Wishing you a successful trading week!
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#202508 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Much more neutral again, since we are exactly at the 50% retracement of the recent bull leg. We are in a 4 month trading range and the middle is the worst place to take trades, at least on higher time frames. I do think bears will get follow-through and we will see 21300 or lower next week but we could also have a bounce first. Is this also still a bull trend? Yes. Only below 20600 we are making meaningful lower lows and market would have a chance of testing 20000. If you look at the weekly or monthly chart, there is no doubt that this is still a bull trend until we go below the 2024-08 lows below 17900. These time frames are good to look at on a weekly basis to remind you where we are but your daytrading should not be affected by it too much if at all.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21000 - 22500
bull case: 22k failed and we went down to the 50% retracement. Bulls just have to buy here or we will go down 300-500 points lower early next week. What are the odds that this was another spike and now we strongly move back up again? That’s the question probably everyone is trying to guess. All previous spikes over the past 2 weeks were bought heavily and this could be as well. I have no opinion on who is likely to win this, so I think it’s 50/50, as it’s probably the best answer, given that we are at the most neutral price again. Targets above are 21950 breakout price, 22000 big round number and then likely the high at 22320 or even 22500 for a new ath.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Very strong selling on Friday by the bears. The odds of this happening on an Opex day are low. We are not at the 50% retracement and I have no idea if we get immediate follow-through down or not. Every time I have no bias, I am neutral and expect sideways movement. Since the bears closed the week at the very low, they remain in control until proven otherwise, no matter my neutral stance. If they keep it below the 15m or 1h 20ema, we could just continue down. The next lower targets are 21400 which would close the first gap and then 21200 which is my next bull trend line but that one is a big uncertainty. Below is obviously 21000 and I think the odds are decent we could get there over the course of next week.
Invalidation is above 20900.
short term: Neutral but if bears keep the bounce very shallow and below the 15m or 1h ema, I lean heavily bearish for 21400 or even 21000. The momentum is clearly on the bear side but given that Friday was Opex and some fishy news came out, I’d rather be neutral going into next week. The high was certainly high enough to qualify as another rejection above 22000 and market is free to test lower or even make new lows.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Only removed lines and added potential targets for both sides. Only clear pattern right now are the bull wedges on the weekly/monthly chart.
