NQ: 130th trading session - recapDon't got much to say about today, very uneventful & boring, see y'all tomorrow
NQ1! trade ideas
Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq Future – January 2025The analysis of key levels for the Nasdaq future suggests that the low recorded on January 27, 2025, at 20,763 marks the beginning of a quarterly cycle. If this level holds, it could trigger a sequence of positive daily bars, confirming the bullish structure. However, there are two additional key levels to monitor in order to validate the strength of this trend.
Key Levels to Watch
Primary Support – 20,763
This level represents the cyclical low of the new quarterly cycle.
Holding this level is crucial for maintaining the bullish setup.
Intermediate Support – 20,980 (former structural resistance)
This level corresponds to the structural high of July 11, 2024, and July 24, 2024.
It was a significant resistance in 2024 and now acts as a strategic support.
Holding above this level would confirm that the 2025 market remains above 2024 levels.
50-Period Exponential Moving Average (EMA 50) – 21,346
This dynamic technical level serves as the first warning signal of weakness if breached.
A drop below this level could introduce bearish pressure, jeopardizing the bullish setup.
Operational Conclusions
Maintain a bullish bias as long as the price remains above 20,763.
21,346 (EMA 50) is the first warning level: a break below it could indicate weakening momentum.
20,980 is the key support to confirm that the market is consolidating above the 2024 highs.
The overall outlook remains positive, with a confirmed bullish structure as long as these levels hold. A potential break below 20,763 would compromise the quarterly cycle structure and require a reassessment of the technical scenario.
NQ! Short IdeaHello again, today I present to you my current Idea on the Nasdaq. I want displace below the True Day (Midnight Open) and retrace back into any PD Array above the True Day Open. Once this happens and I see selling pressure building up, then I will enter a Short.
MXMM Short Idea - Quarterly Theory
Praise be to God.
-T-
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/30/25MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/30/25
📈 21748 & 21885.25 (NEXT ZONES: 21807-21917, 22027-22137)
📉 21473.50 & 21336.25 (NEXT ZONES: 21477-21367, 21257-21147)
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(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FOCUS ON ZONES VERSES INDIVIDUAL PRICE LEVELS)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/30/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 21586.25
- PR Low: 21505.75
- NZ Spread: 179.75
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
- GDP
Previous session closed as practically an inside print
- Advertising possibility to close the weekend gap above 21800
- Momentum expected above previous session high, 21700 zone
- Creates psychological liquidity below 21360
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 1/30)
- Weekend Gap: -0.62% (open > 21904)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47%
- Session Open ATR: 410.01
- Volume: 32K
- Open Int: 258K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -3.5% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Nasdaq (March 2025) - FOMC Disappointment This is a good example of why you should not increase the leverage on your trades during times of high impact news because sometimes the complete opposite can happen.
In this review, I will discuss my views on how FOMC shaped the daily candle and what to expect going forward although there was not that much volatility yesterday.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed flat as the market digested the previous day's FOMC decision to hold interest rates and major corporate earnings reports. The strategy of selling at the 5-day moving average proved effective, and despite the FOMC decision and earnings from Tesla and Microsoft, the index remained within a range-bound market. On the daily chart, the MACD is still above the signal line and the zero line, indicating that the buy signal is still intact. However, as there has been no significant volatility, the gap between the indicators remains narrow, maintaining the current range. Since the buy signal is still valid, it would be advantageous to monitor whether the gap-down from January 27 is filled and trade accordingly within the range.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has crossed above the signal line below the zero line and is now consolidating. For the MACD to cross below the signal line, a sharp decline would be necessary, but given the current spread between the MACD and the signal line, such a drop appears unlikely. Instead, if the market continues to consolidate and the MACD and signal line converge, the next move—whether another buying wave or a selling wave—will determine the trend. Since key economic reports, including the GDP release and Apple’s earnings, are due today, it would be best to adopt a range-bound strategy.
Crude Oil
Crude oil faced resistance at $74 and closed lower. On the daily chart, the sell signal remains intact, with prices failing to break above the 5-day moving average and continuing to decline within a downward channel. Prices are currently supported around the $72 level. For a bullish outlook, it would be crucial to see a strong bullish candlestick breaking above the downward channel's upper boundary at around $73.60.
On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and signal line remain below the zero line. While the MACD has crossed above the signal line, the price has not surged, resulting in only a narrow spread. Given that the $72–73 range has historically been a strong support zone, it would be preferable to buy on pullbacks. However, if the price breaks below this range and a sell signal emerges, it will be important to monitor whether the $72 level holds as support.
Gold
Gold closed flat on the daily chart, maintaining a buy signal. The MACD and signal line are gradually converging, but the spread remains sufficient to prevent an immediate shift to a sell signal. If the MACD turns upward, further gains are likely. A key factor to watch is whether the weekly candlestick forms a bullish pattern and the MACD crosses above the signal line. Key resistance levels are at 2800 and 2820.
On the 240-minute chart, the buy signal is still intact, but the spread has narrowed, indicating weaker momentum. The market is range-bound with mixed buying and selling pressure. As long as no sell signal appears on the 240-minute chart, a buy-on-dip strategy is preferable. However, keep in mind that upcoming economic data releases may lead to pre-market consolidation.
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 21470 / 21400 / 21360 / 21285 / 21220
-Sell Levels: 21625 / 21680 / 21770 / 21890
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 72.60 / 72.00 / 71.40 / 70.50
-Sell Levels: 73.40 / 73.85 / 74.40 / 75.00
GOLD - Bullish Market(April)
-Buy Levels: 2793 / 2787 / 2777 / 2773 / 2768
-Sell Levels: 2803 / 2809 / 2813 / 2821
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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NQ potential levels on 1D chartLooking from the perspective of AMD model we are expecting the manipulation below the sellside, eventhough the overall move itself is manipulative which takes out the buyers with every next swing down in the range of the previous post. I think we are about to retest the balanced price range where the liquidity is marked by the trend line. the potential fair price for a significant rebound is the previously formed inefficiency which was respected afterwards as can be researched. In case we break that level down with significant strength.
Potential reversal area for NQThis is the local picture I look at in 4H we have currently respected the old NWOG formed in the end of November, however, there is still sell side and the BPR are located below, which I would rather like to see quickly swept and then price returned back above the NWOG to fill the inefficiencies higher
NQ! Bull FlagA breakout above the flag’s resistance, ideally on increased volume, confirms the pattern and suggests a continuation of the prior uptrend. Traders often use this setup to identify potential entry points, with stop-loss levels placed below the flag’s low and targets set based on the flagpole's height projected from the breakout point. Check the Chart Volume
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/29/25MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/29/25
📈 21910 (NEXT ZONES: 21840-21797, 22052-22011, 22265-22224)
📉 21320 (NEXT ZONES: 21413-21373, 21200-21160, 20987-20947)
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(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FROM 930 OPEN, FIND THE HIGH OR LOW AND PROFIT OFF $200 DIFFERENCE FOR INCOME)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/29/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 21530.50
- PR Low: 21579.00
- NZ Spread: 108.5
Key scheduled economic events:
10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories
14:00 | FOMC Statement
- Fed Interest Rate Decision
14:30 | FOMC Press Conference
Temporary AMP margins increase for expected FOMC afternoon volatility spike
- Nearing still open weekend gap above 21800
- Rare Asian hours vol spike into PR BuZ
Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 1/29)
- Weekend Gap: -0.62% (open > 21904)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47%
- Session Open ATR: 410.16
- Volume: 19K
- Open Int: 266K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -3.8% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
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Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
NASDAQ successfully rebounded and closed higher. Yesterday was a day where selling at the 3-day moving average was possible, and after rebounding to the 3-day line, it faced resistance and closed at that level. The rebound appears to be a recovery from the excessive drop on Monday due to overblown concerns about China's Deepseek.
On the daily chart, the MACD remains above the signal line, maintaining a buy signal, which suggests further attempts to rebound are likely. Additionally, today’s FOMC meeting and major corporate earnings reports will be pivotal in determining whether the downward gap created on Monday will be filled.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is attempting a golden cross after the sharp drop and subsequent rebound. If the golden cross is not confirmed and the index falls again, it may test the double-bottom level, so caution is advised when chasing a buying position.
However, if the golden cross is confirmed, it would be advisable to adopt a buy-on-dip strategy, as buying momentum remains strong. Today’s primary strategy should be selling at the 5-day moving average resistance level, making it advantageous to sell at resistance areas near the 5-day line. With strong upward momentum and potential pre-market consolidation due to economic data announcements, a box-range trading approach would be ideal.
OIL
Oil closed higher, encountering resistance near the $74 level. The daily chart shows that the 240-day moving average acted as support, with a bullish candle forming as oil prepares for another rebound attempt. The MACD still signals a sell trend, but consistent buying efforts could continue.
As mentioned earlier, even if oil rises, it’s likely to face pullbacks at certain levels. On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal has been confirmed, with a double-bottom pattern forming alongside a lower shadow, indicating a favorable buy-on-dip strategy.
If a strong rebound occurs, prices could rise to the 10-day moving average around $75.50. Selling positions should be avoided for now, with a focus on buy-on-dip strategies. Additionally, be mindful of price volatility due to today’s inventory report.
GOLD
Gold closed higher, supported by the 10-day moving average on the daily chart. The MACD and signal line on the daily chart still show separation, and gold has recovered both the 3-day and 5-day moving averages, making a buy-on-dip strategy effective.
For April contracts, it is crucial to see whether gold can break above $2,815 on the weekly chart and form a bullish candle. Be cautious of increased volatility in gold prices resulting from today’s FOMC meeting outcomes.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is on the verge of a golden cross. If gold fails to see additional significant gains, the price could form the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern. If the MACD fails to build further upward momentum and starts to fall, a third wave of selling could occur, so keeping this scenario in mind is advised.
The clear trend will likely be determined after today’s FOMC meeting, so monitoring gold’s movement after the announcement will be key.
■Trading Strategies for Today
NASDAQ - Range-bound Market
-Buy: 21,520 / 21,475 / 21,410 / 21,375 / 21,290
-Sell: 21,610 / 21,700 / 21,770 / 21,900
OIL - Range-bound Market
-Buy: 73.65 / 73.10 / 72.60
-Sell: 74.60 / 75.00 / 75.50 / 76.00
GOLD - Bullish Market(April)
-Buy: 2,791 / 2,787 / 2,783 / 2,775
-Sell: 2,804 / 2,809 / 2,821
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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Nasdaq (March 2025) - FOMC Fireworks! #S1E2Tuesday played out exactly as expected, with the daily timeframe retracing inside of the previous days trading range.
Previous sellside liquidity pool was tagged but a failure to close below the red line gives me the indication that we could see a continuation to the upside, attacking the new week opening gap for this week.
Looking forward to FOMC Wednesday as there is a lot of volatility on offer!
2025-01-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls won the decision again and we are on our way to close the gap to 21900 and likely print 22k again. It would be a huge surprise if the gap would stay open. Tomorrow is FOMC and it could be good for a huge surprise to either side. No matter what, I will be flat going into it. Decent looking bull wedge up now and I expect a better pull-back to maybe the 1h 20ema before we can have more upside tomorrow. Dips should stay above 21400.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21400 - 22000
bull case: Bulls took control again after the nasty bear trap on the US open. They are once again in full control and their next targets are 21700, gap close to 21900 and then obviously 22k. The breakout retest is 21420 and any pull-back should stay above or this could become something else.
Invalidation is below 21400.
bear case: Bears sold the double top 21420 for a decent 200+ point sell-off but bulls were having none of it afterwards. Bears had to give up and we are on our way up again. Best bears can hope for is to scalp 50-100 points on new highs. Bears really have nothing here. Jpow could help but until then I expect market to trade much higher already.
Could this move up become a lower high below 22000 or could the gap to 21900 stay open? Obviously yes but for now the buying is strong and I don’t want to hold swing shorts when bulls are in full control again. No matter how amazing the selling on Monday was.
Invalidation is above 21900.
short term: Bullish on pull-backs. Bears fumbled it again and next target is the gap close to 21900.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-27: High’s are most likely in. Any short with stop 22200 is good. I’d like to see 20000 over the next 2-3 weeks.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the bear trap around 21200 once it turned violently to the upside. Market could not get below 21100 which was a warning to the bears, that we are printing higher lows after higher highs.
NQ: 129th trading session - recapTook a short today 4min into the market open - winning trade.
Although I was "wrong" (again I never set a specific bias) with the assumption of price pushing down further, I was right in my prediction. Price actually pushed down with a lot of momentum, just not far enough for it to actually have been a continuation. But whatever, I shorted, NQ dumped, and a while later it recovered. I took my profit at a 3RR target, as always: Once price hits my 1.5:1RR: I set my SL on breakeven.
Later a good range accumulated, I didn't take any trades tho.
I won't trade the opening tomorrow, I'll watch the aftermath tho.
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/28/25MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/28/25
📈 21558 (NEXT ZONES: 21615)
📉 21182 (NEXT ZONES: 21132, 20993-20920)
(💎 NOT MUCH VOLATILITY, HOWEVER FROM 930 OPEN, FIND THE HIGH OR LOW AND PROFIT OFF $200 DIFFERENCE FOR INCOME EVEN IN UNCERTAIN TIMES)
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/27/25MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade 🎯 for 01/27/25
📈 21750 (NEXT LEVELS: 21865)
📉 21406 (NEXT LEVELS: 21372, 21227)
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
