RTY_F: 1800 for An Hourly Move?Looking for the Russell 2000 bulls to stay resilient at 1800 for a short term hourly move. Euro may support the move as DXY's fall through 105 is helping growth
RTY1! trade ideas
Russell 2000 (RTY, M2K) Low-Timeframe ShortQuick idea here as we look to get back in a groove with analysis/posts after a very light October. Not going to include a lot of elaboration, but we're looking to take advantage of a swing short (price depending) via a low timeframe (5-minute) RTY supply zone (defining candles not pictured here since sub-15-minute charts cannot be posted). If price approaches the zone hot (expanded range candle vs. grinding action), look to take the trade outright upon penetration of the lower bound (1795.4). If RTY stair-steps higher, forming new pockets of demand between current price and supply, consider taking a confirmation entry (price exit from zone). Stop should be placed a bit above the zone's upper bound. Keep in mind round # psych @ 1800. Targets are 2:1 and 5:1 (look for a fall back to origin of CPI breakout). Finally, US stocks have been very bullish as of late, so shorts fly in the face of current momentum. That said, RTY has consistently been the weakest of the 4 US equity indexes, so if you're going to short one, it's probably your best bet. Have to run, but good luck!
Stay tuned b/c a LOT more ideas are coming soon!
Jon @ LionHart Trading
Russell 2000 Futures (RTY) Turning Lower After 3 Waves RallyRussell 2000 Futures (RTY) rally from 10.28.2023 low has ended in 3 waves at the 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension. This suggests that the rally is corrective in nature. Up from 10.28.2023 low, wave A ended at 1779.6. Pullback in wave B ended at 1687.40 with internal subdivision as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave A, wave ((a)) ended at 1727.10 and rally in wave ((b)) ended at 1746.8. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 1687.40 and this completed wave B in higher degree.
The Index then turned higher in wave C. Up from wave B, wave ((i)) ended at 1717.10, and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 1694.5. Index extended higher in wave ((iii)) towards 1824.80 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 1801.60. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 1838.50 which completed wave C of (2) in higher degree. The Index has turned lower in wave (3). Down from wave (2), wave (i) ended at 1799.40 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 1813.50. Index extended lower in wave (iii) towards 1770.50. Expect wave (iv) rally to be followed with wave (v) lower to end wave ((i)). Afterwards, it should rally in wave ((ii)) to correct cycle from 11.16.2023 high in 3, 7, or 11 swing before it resumes lower again.
The Russell11.16.23 I thought I would take a look at the Russell futures because I think there is a reasonable probability trade to short the market with a small stop.... and yet this was a bullish market yesterday. I would have placed the stop very close to my trade entry. I believe the short trade is a higher probability trade but it is a lower reward trade Unless I want to sit around and wait for the market to get to the first target. If the market gets to the first target and starts to reverse and finds buyers...Then I would be Wondering if the market is going to set up to make new highs. There's more to it.... which means you have to follow the price action.
The es and the Russell11.6.23 Both the es and the Russell were good long trades.... but I would be looking for sellers despite the bullish price action of these markets. The es is more bullish than the Russell... but they're different markets in that one has been trending lower and has a 382 correction( the Russell), And the es is behaving with more strength... even though there are reasons why these markets can go lower because of all the financial information and Technical information that we hear about.
Watch for trend line breaks and bullish bounces off surportHave Conferences atleast 3 volume is key in my trading when it comes to a high place of interest like a trend line or a supply or demand zone or even a respected ema . Watch the trend of the day on more then two time frames lines . Watch for test and retest never enter on the first move . Stop loss always and set it and forget if your wrong your wrong control your risk always .. when your up then move stop to break even a very easy way to feel better about your trade and practice . The market is heading to a manager trend will it reject? Or are we heading out to the skys above .. good luck
The Russell and Es indexes on futures11.2.23 8:30 am. This video I start with the ES Which gave us a great reversal. this was a high probability trade because the market simultaneously came to a support area, an extension, And evidence of buyers. This is why you can use small stops. On the other hand when you find markets like this you do not generally want to drag your stop higher because you'll end up getting stopped out far too soon because you're not looking at this market as a swing trader. But as a scalper. This is very easy to do, But you want to work on this because this is when you really make up for a lot of losing trades if you can just stay in a good reversal trade. I spent a little bit of time on the Russell... and ran out of time to discuss the range box on a monthly chart. If you can find good range boxes on higher time frames and then you convert that chart to a daily chart and sometimes a weekly chart this is something you should start looking at if you trade the Russell.
RTY updateLooks to me like a 4 day short squeeze, indicators are not overbought yet. Fed meeting tomorrow.
Thing is, they're pumping garbage stocks right before earnings. There may be opportunity to short garbage on earnings next week.
Russell 2000 (RTY) Soon Will Open Bearish SequenceRussell 2000 (RTY) is close to breaking below 6.16.2022 low at 1640.70. A break below that level will open a bearish sequence from 11.8.2021 peak favoring further downside. Short term Elliott Wave View suggests that cycle from 8.1.2023 high is in progress as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 8.1.2023 high, wave 1 ended at 1832.8 and rally in wave 2 ended at 1934. The Index extended lower in wave 3 towards 1720.7 and rally in wave 4 ended at 1802.70. Wave 5 lower is currently in progress which should complete wave (1) in higher degree. Down from wave 4, wave ((i)) ended at 1724.30 and wave ((ii)) ended at 1792.90. The 45 minutes chart below shows the starting point of wave ((ii)) of 5.
The Index then extended lower in wave ((iii)). Down from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 1772.9 and wave (ii) ended at 1779.3. The Index extended lower in wave (iii) towards 1693.80 and rally in wave (iv) ended at 1709.70. Wave (v) lower ended at 1670.90 which completed wave ((iii)). Rally in wave ((iv)) ended at 1701.82 with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Up from wave ((iii)), wave (a) ended at 1699.70 and pullback in wave (b) ended at 1675.30. Index then extended higher in wave (c) towards 1701.82 which completed wave ((iv)). Index then resumes lower in wave ((v)). While below 1701.82, expect the Index to extend a bit lower to end wave ((v)) of C of (1). Afterwards, Index should rally in wave (2) to correct cycle from 8.1.12023 high before the decline resumes.
RTY UpdateLet an open gap and got way oversold overnight, now it bounced premarket and filled the gap.
Small cap futures green, market is due for a bounce, but I don't think I'm gonna play today. I'm beginning to like cash and sleeping in, the market isn't going on an extended rally.
RTY UpdateRSI now oversold on RTY, ES, and NQ MFI is not oversold yet, and last week MFI stayed oversold and flatlined.
Risk/reward is not there for me to play a bounce, especially now that PCAR earnings pump appears to be over. If anything, I'll short next time I see the 3hr go overbought.
I don't see a market rally happening until after the Fed shutdown, gonna avoid the heartburn and stay cash.
If you're short, you're chasing an oversold condition.
Good luck.
Review of markets10.24.23 6:30 am eastern This video shows the dollar, The Russell, The ES, Tesla. Most of these markets were breaking lower and were easy shorts.... it is possible that they may find some buyers, But these markets left strong sellers that have been controlling the market for the past few weeks. In the last few weeks these markets were easy to short and much more challenging to take long positions.... even though you can do this on a 4-Hour chart without too much difficulty as long as you're careful. It's well known that most traders cannot short... they are afraid of it and they just don't do it. It's really hard to do if you own stock and you want the Hedge your long-term position... and it is expensive because shorting an equity requires payment for the privilege of you borrowing shares from your broker... really the clearing firm. it is much easier to use futures markets in my opinion. And you only need to follow a few markets, and this is a far more efficient way of spending your time. And you'll find almost everything you need on a 4-Hour chart and a daily chart. I chose tesla as a talking point because it shows the problem long-term traders have with equity markets when they were very successful in that market until the markets broke down in general. Some of the easiest ways Of making money is to buy and hold... but buy and hold traders generally don't know how to get out of a market and they don't know how to trade a market when it breaks down. When the markets went a lot lower in 2008... that really wasn't a bear market as I see it because the markets only went down about 30% and then all the corrections lower as the markets were moving higher generally only corrected to the 382... many or most traders trading today have never been in a bear market... until this market. You want to trade the volatility and factor in the gaps.
RTY EOD UpdateWell, RTY and ES RSI hit oversold.
I have no idea what this selloff is about, I'm just gonna stay cash. Might day trade tomorrow if I see something.
Really strange day, Powell didn;t say anything new, and he had a more dovish tone than last time.
RTY UpdateMarket looks like it wants to go up but RTY needs to fill the gap and TSLA is eating shit, lol.
MFI is oversold on ES and RTY, but not NQ. I think one more small down move, but I already went long on PCAR stock for earnings because it bounced off intraday support. Gonna add if it tanks this afternoon.
I think that's all I'm willing to do in this wacked up market, lol. I've made a bunch of money on PCAR stock this year, so I'm willing to risk it on that stock. It usually gets a pre-earnings pump the Friday and Monday before earnings, so you can bail out Monday afternoon if you don;t want the earnings gamble.
RTY_F: Russell forming a Bullish trend?The latest downtrend in the Russell 2000 futures contract chart has expired and a new bullish reversal signal formed here.💹
Don't miss out this low risk buy opportunity in small caps.
Big picture is still not clear given the macro backdrop, but you can trade swings tactically with low risk and high probability of success using insights from Time@Mode like the one I'm sharing here.🧠
Best of luck if you take the trade.🤝
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
RTY UpdateSlept in and missed the fun.
ES gap is almost filled buy RTY has a long ways to go. I told my followers NOT to chase the pump Monday, at least I was right about something, lol. That morning rally yesterday confused me a bit, didn;t short anything.
Small Caps Ultimate Bear ScenarioIn case you're wondering what that red line is.... it's my bear scenario line.
The last time Fed raised rates, small caps tanked. See highlighted area. Rates are higher now then they were back then. Plus RTY broke the blue line, and MFI is high enough on the daily that there is a lot of room down. There's no reason why stocks like PTON or BYND can't go to $1. Is PTON really worth $1.7B at this point?
Not saying this happens, but either way, the open weekend gap needs to fill on RTY so I'm bearish until it does.
#RTY Potential Pitchfork PlayIn this update we review the recent price action in the emini Russell2k futures and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
PAST PERFORMANCE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
RTY UpdateOdd, MFI is overbought but it looks like it wants to melt up until RSI gets overbought for the 4 day short squeeze. There is a gap underneath RTY just like ES, so I expect it to tank after the squeeze.
Looks like money rotating from tech to garbage, lol.
Gonna opt to stay cash, not shorting anything and def not buying garbage stocks.
Russell - Long Good luck to everyone! This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Conduct your own analysis before making trading decisions.
HOW-TO Use the new PB Trade Setup in the MTPredictor ScriptsIn this How-To video, we take a look at how to use the new PB or Pullback Trade Setup in the MTPredictor Invite-only Scripts to uncover potential trade setups. As an example we take a look at a recent Chart of the Russell Index on a 3min Chart.
As you will see from the video, this setup is designed to catch a minor pullback against a previous strong trend. The idea is that it positions you to take advantage as the prior strong trend then resumes. The Target for the Trade is the Typical Wave C WPT (Wave Price Target). More experienced Traders can look to "run" their Trades further by using the ATRStop, if the Market trend is "Strong" (MTPTrend beyond its strength band) as the Market reaches its Target.
Not all Trades are profitable, that is why we use Position Sizing to keep the losses small (all trading approaches have losses).
Remember, MTPredictor is not a "Black Box" system, where all signals should be taken, we only suggest considering trade setups, when there is a clear picture on the Higher time frame charts, this is essential.
Please also remember, that no matter how clear the picture may seem, losses can and always will unfold when trading, that is why Stops are vital. Please keep your losses small, and then look to run your Profits. The aim is, over time, to have Profits that are larger than the losses, which does not mean a high % of winners, just that the winners are larger than the losses over time.
Lastly, please note: this is not a trade recommendation, you should all perform your own Analysis. Losses can and will unfold when Trading, please always use Stops and keep your losses small.
Russell 2000 Analysis Support And Resistance LevelsHere in this video I go over the support and resistance levels of the Russell 2000 and go over why the Russell may be something very interesting to be looking at as it is testing some pretty major levels. I am using a renko chart and very briefly show the candlesticks but overall I go over the powerful levels on the Russell CME_MINI:M2K1! AMEX:IWM RUSSELL:RUT
Can The Russell 2000 (Small Caps) Rally? Small caps have been under pressure this year relative to larger market cap weighted benchmarks. Higher interest rates will remain a headwind for the Russell 2000, and to see more upside, we will need to see interest rate yields come off of their highs.
As of late, we have seen some relief on the longer end of the treasury yield curve, which has provided some support for the Russell. Moving forward, major support and resistance levels will come into play, and we will cover those levels here.
The Russell has built out a perfect head and shoulders pattern, and we can see that after the breakdown of the right shoulder, the Russell eventually found its footing at the 1720 – 1725 level. This will remain a major support level moving forward, and a break and close below is likely to be coupled with higher interest rate yields and more selling pressure.
Major resistance will remain at the 1820 – 1825 level, where the market has failed to get above numerous times. If we can break and close above this level, it is possible we could see more upside momentum, and this momentum is likely to be coupled with a rally in treasuries.
This is a very wide technical range of 100 points (1720 – 1820 ) however, the Russell is one of the most sensitive indices when rates are quick to change direction. It is possible that the Russell would be more range bound until there is confirmation in the direction of the U.S. Economy, and interest rates.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
