The impact of Trump's tariffs on the copper marketBy Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
The copper market is going through a decisive phase, influenced by political and economic factors that could alter its behavior in the coming months. The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency and his reactivation of tariff policies has generated expectations of a new record in the price of the red metal since the beginning of the year. Executives of the copper sector indicated at that time that its value could exceed 13,000 dollars per ton (approximately 404.35 dollars per ounce). One troy ounce is equivalent to 31.1034768 grams; therefore, there are 32.15074657 troy ounces in 1 kg. This means that the value of copper is multiplied by 32.1 times, a level that was already surpassed on Tuesday with its current price at 517 dollars per ounce.
United States accumulates copper while China suffers shortages
Trade tensions have led to a redistribution of global supply. It is estimated that 500,000 tons are being diverted to the U.S., which is drastically reducing stocks in China, the world's largest consumer. This supply imbalance could put further pressure on prices.
Factors driving the rise in copper prices
1. Electrification and renewable energies: The growing adoption of electric vehicles and the expansion of electric infrastructures increase the demand for copper.
2. Production constraints: Chile and Peru, the world's leading producers, face disruptions due to labor disputes, environmental regulations and lower investment in mining infrastructure.
3. U.S. trade policy: Tighter tariffs have encouraged the accumulation of reserves in the U.S. and other countries, further restricting global supply and putting upward pressure on prices.
4. Restrictions on the export of scrap from the EU: The European Union is evaluating the implementation of tariffs on the export of scrap, which could impact the supply of raw material for the production of refined copper. This measure seeks to strengthen the domestic industry and reduce dependence on third countries, but could also affect the global supply of the metal.
5. Geopolitical instability: International conflicts, trade sanctions and changes in central banks' monetary policies influence copper prices. Industrial demand from China continues to be a determining factor in the market equation.
Copper price outlook
In 2021, the metal reached an all-time high of $10,700 per tonne at $505 per ounce. Now, with the combination of growing demand and increasingly tight supply, the market could surpass this level. The evolution of trade policies and China's response will be decisive in its trajectory. Looking at the chart, it reached a new high of $518.45 on Monday. The current price oscillates between $510 and $512, showing an accumulation structure by institutional traders initiated in the last impulse of March 11. The control point (POC) is distant at around $477 per ounce, and the volume distribution shows a third dominance zone near $512. Since March 11, the golden crossover of the moving averages has facilitated bullish expansion, although the 50-average has brushed the 100-average on several occasions. Currently, both averages are in price confluence, which coincides with an RSI that has corrected from 71.84% to 54.40%. This movement could indicate the possibility of a new upward momentum that takes the price above $535.
Impact of tariff measures on the industry.
If Trump ultimately ends up implementing new tariffs on industrial metals, it could drastically alter the flow of global copper trade. Tariffs on imports could incentivize domestic copper mining in the U.S. and raise costs for importers, affecting the competitiveness of manufacturing companies. On the other hand, China may be forced to diversify its sources of supply or develop technological alternatives to reduce its dependence on imported copper.
In addition, restrictions on the export of scrap by the European Union could influence the availability of recycled copper, a key source for industrial production in China and other markets. The EU seeks to reduce the leakage of strategic materials, which could lead to higher prices on the international market for all rare metals and materials.
Conclusion
Copper is at a turning point. The combination of production restrictions, increased global demand and protectionist policies could push its price to record levels. The evolution of the geopolitical and economic context will be key to define the direction of the market in the coming months. Investors and companies in the sector will have to pay close attention to the evolution of trade policies and the response of the main market players in order to anticipate possible movements in copper prices.
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HGS1! trade ideas
Copper Pending Short: Ending of 5-waves in Ending DiagonalTake note that there is a rule breach in this analysis where wave IV is in the price zone of wave I.
Aside from that, I have drawn a 5 waves overlapping each other for wave 5 thus expecting an ending diagonal. The target of $5.22 is from the convergence of 2 Fibonacci extensions. Also, it is near to the resistance trendline. Thus the stop loss is placed above the trendline.
Good luck!
Copper Nears Possible Resistance ZoneCopper faces a potential resistance zone between 5.18 and 5.30, where seven Fibonacci extension targets align with the May 2024 peak. If this level holds, a retracement to 4.984–4.75 is possible. This area is supported by a three-point Fibonacci symmetry and the 34 EMA wave.
COPPER extending a Bullish Leg to the 7-month Resistance. Copper (HG1!) has been trading within a Channel Up since the August 07 2024 Low and the last two days has resumed the uptrend, invalidating the Jan 17 rejection. This suggests that the current rally is the latest technical Bullish Leg and should be extended to the top of the pattern for a Higher High.
Until then however, there is Resistance Zone 1 to consider, which is holding since June 2024, so we will be going for less risk, targeting 4.6550.
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MACD Wobbling, crazyIn the H1 TF, price movements seem unstable, imbalanced impredictable. Just touching previous ATH last year.
MACD indicator wobbling, indicates so many traps entry.
Better stay away for awhile or proper trade strategy and money management.
Anyway, still copper futures like chibai
Copper Is Looking SexyI don't know why but the color of copper is soothing to me. Anyway, today we are looking at Copper which is RED hot for my reasons including seasonality which is coming to an end.
Here are some notes on Copper.
Daily Chart:
+ Top Keltner touch, complex pullback
+ Cycle Low
+ MACD momentum fast angling up (near 0) and slow > 0 (but flat)
+ Rainbow in play
+ price > 200
* Bullish seasonality until 3/6
* Squeeze starting in 195 min
Weekly Chart:
+ Weekly top Keltner touch
+ MACD Up
+ 10sma > 34 ema
+ price > 200
Monthly Chart
+ price > 200
+ 10 sma > 34 ema
+ Monthly squeeze with bullish momentum
+ Cycle low
Extra Notes
* Interestingly enough, copper shows strength in China and by default AUD because of trade.
* Shows strength in global economy, when copper is doing well, the world is usually growing.
#COPPER DEMAND ZONE A demand zone in trading refers to a price area where buying interest is significantly strong, often leading to a potential reversal or continuation of an upward trend. When discussing copper demand zones, we're typically looking at key price levels where buyers are likely to step in, causing the price of copper to bounce or reverse.
Copper Supply ZoneTrading In the Zone!
A copper supply zone in trading refers to a price level or area on a chart where there is a significant concentration of selling pressure, leading to a potential reversal or pause in an upward trend. This concept is commonly used in technical analysis, particularly in supply and demand trading strategies.
Key Characteristics of a Copper Supply Zone:
Price Rejection: The zone is identified by previous price action where the price of copper reversed or stalled after reaching a certain level.
High Volume: The zone often coincides with high trading volume, indicating strong selling interest.
COPPER: Resistance breakout aims for 5.1985.Copper is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 63.919, MACD = 0.127, ADX = 33.191) and having crossed today above the R1 level, it is a healthy sign of bullish continuation. This is the 3rd main bullish wave of the long term Channel Up and every time the two prior crossed above their R1 levels, the extended to a new HH. The natural target is the R2 level (TP = 5.1985).
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High grade copper HG looking bullsihCopper traded on the COMEX looks bullish.
Currently at 3.20 per pound, the chart shows an Eve and Adam bottom forming between 2015 and now. The expected target of this move would be 4.70 which would put the market five cents above its old high set in Feb 2011 of 4.65.
From 4.65 I would expect the market to revisit the 3.30-3.60 region to make a strong bottom for a longer term ascent.
Looking back further on the copper chart, there is a longer term Adam and Eve bottom forming starting in Dec 2008 to present. The target would be 7.365 based off of this longer term pattern.
If copper were to trade up to 4.70 area and come back down to 3.50 area, it would also present an opportunity for an ascending triangle to form with the same target, 7.365, as the Adam and Eve pattern.
With a weakening dollar, look to copper for guidance on inflation going forward.
Elliott Wave View: 5 Swing Sequence in Copper (HG) Favors HigherShort term Elliott Wave in Copper shows 5 swing sequence from 11.14.2024 low, favoring more upside. Up from 11.14.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 4.335 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 4.005. The metal has resumed higher in wave 3. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 4.47 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 4.1835. Internal subdivision of wave ((ii)) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (w) ended at 4.235, wave (x) ended at 4.389, and wave (y) lower ended at 4.184 which completed wave ((ii)) in higher degree.
The metal has resumed higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 4.3535 and pullback in wave ii ended at 4.3065. Wave iii higher ended at 4.5095 and pullback in wave iv ended at 4.411. Wave v higher ended at 4.715 which completed wave (i) in higher degree. Pullback in wave (ii) ended at 4.541. Pair has resumed higher in wave (iii). Near term, as far as pivot at 4.1845 low stays intact, expect dips to find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
Copper possible rebound over Fibonacci resistanceCopper has been moving quite in accordance with Fibonacci (two different traces).
The general trend is bearish, so the most probable outcome is a rebound on the Fibonacci resistance.
We will wait for confirmation - rebound and closed daily candle below the resistance.
Copper New Bullish Move?Hi Traders
We see Copper is about to break a HTF correctional structure.
Right now its still in the correction, so be patient and wait for the breakout and further development
Market Forecast UPDATES! Tuesday, Feb 4thIn this video, we will update the forecasts for the following markets:
ES \ S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC |Gold
SiI | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Update on COPPER Futures: Bull PennantI posted an idea on HG1! COMEX:HG1! last year where I identified a channel that futures were trading in and made a plan to trade the copper index fund AMEX:CPER while it was in the channel and trade the Copper miners ETF AMEX:COPX when it broke out to capture asset appreciation as well as dividends. I got long last March in COPX and have been holding. Price has retracted back to the top of the channel and has formed a Bullish Pennant. I have been adding shares as we reached these prior support levels but now I am increasing my position in expectation of this next breakout.
Weekly Market Forecast Jan 27 - 31stThis is an outlook for the week of Jan 27-31st.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
ES \ S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC |Gold
SiI | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
The indices are still moving higher, as investors are moving money from the USD to the equity markets, riding the Trump Pump. We'll see how long the euphoria will last, and how the market responds to a bevy of policy initiatives and executive orders by the US President.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
