Copper Futures: Have You Seen The Chart?At an inflection point as it risks losing it's 200-day simple moving average. Umpteenth test of the level, which increases downside risk.
Watch your step with this commodity.
HGS1! trade ideas
Copper looking for 3.32 to 3.82 wave Y correctionCopper looking for 3.32 to 3.82 wave Y correction
Previous ABC fall is 80 cents and using that Y target could 3.82 if fall is similar to previous fall of 80 cents... if we have deeper correction say 1.618 retracement of previous move...target would be around 3.32... I will be keeping daily 50 dma as stop loss...
COPPER Buy signalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price is rebounding on the Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Channel Up while the MACD just formed a Bullish Cross.
Target: 4.980 (the 1.236 Fibonacci extension).
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HG1! 1M Comes Copper Futures test
What is HG copper?
Our Copper Futures contract (HG) offers the ability to deliver or take delivery of Grade 1 electrolytic copper cathode in a timely, transparent and efficient fashion at CME Group approved and regulated facilities located throughout the United States.
JICPT| Copper likely to rebound from 11% drop(Range measure)Hello everyone. Copper got my attention of looking for potential long opportunity after dropping by 11% . The reason is as below:
1. Economic recovery(Macro)
2. Price fell from top of range numbered 4 to retest bottom of range numbered 2.
3. solid demand zone with flip structure.
The issue is the red downtrend line. If copper can take that line out, it's likely to challenge previous high.
What do you think? Give a like if you're with me.
Copper 200 DMA againAfter several attempts, we are again above the 200 DMA.
Interest rates movements these last weeks, as well as inflation expectations, were somewhat clumsy with the market changing its view several times (ED futures now indicate 3 hikes in 2022). Along with that and worries over Chinese new policies, no clear trend was able to materialize in Copper.
Now that we've passed Chilean elections, perhaps comes the time to resume uptrend. If the tenacity in staying above the 200 DMA is a sign, it is a new opportunity to go long.
Any downturn under this MMA would infirm hopes again.
All time high break!In my "Copper could go to $8, $20 even" idea published on March 13th I explained I was looking to buy copper, and expected it to go up over more than a year.
I wanted to see the price consolidate over a longer time than what it did and ideally closer to all time high.
It is still possible that it will, just like gold did, after going up significantly above ATH, just like gold did.
I missed out on buying during consolidation but I FOMO'ed on the ATH breakout, I'm a bit mad because I went in with only half size; I have no problem taking bad trades with full size but when I FOMO I take smaller bets even though I keep winning, the margin restrictions do not help also to be fair, once again thank you useless regulators.
In the long term as I said in previous ideas, Copper $8 easy, even $20. If Yellen & the FED follow the example of Rudolf Havenstein copper $20,000,000 why not 😀
How does the CME limit up work when there is hyperinflation? Or strong inflation and strong price appreciation?
NOW is the time to ask this question, it's like with negative Oil prices, you had to think about it BEFORE the events, not AFTER.
Prices could get frozen. We are far from this happening, it will not happen overnight and implied volatility does not simple go from 0 to 100 overnight.
For now we keep an eye on volatility and when it starts getting extreme we look for answers. And we never go all in so even if prices get frozen all our capital won't be.
With Oil I was relieved to see the CME made an announcement that prices could go negative, days before it did. I checked before buying (I was trying to take advantage of the contango).
What happens when prices keep going up is not clear, but if and when volatility starts increasing dramatically the CME and maybe our brokers will let us know.
Remember Oil volatility increased very progressively.
The second question is in the short term, meaning the next couple of weeks or even months, where could the price be heading?
Will it just continue higher and higher or will it do a spike as it's doing now, then have a big correction around ATH?
To help answer this question we can look at other commodities, first gold.
But copper is not gold, it is an industrial metal, used for real, no one is accumulating copper as a store of value.
So next let's take a look at lumber which everyone knows has been going and going and going.
Lumber: retest, but only after going ridiculously high. I copper did this... I'd be happy.
We can look at a couple more examples, the price action is repetitive.
And what best to compare to copper than copper itself?
The price before the 2005-2008 copper bull run was choppy, and it stayed choppy for a while after going past all time high.
It's logical and obvious. Participants do not magically go from uncertain to mega bullish overnight, and the public (nobs) do not simply all "hear about copper" AND buy overnight.
Everyone I think knows about Bitcoin, most of the public heard about it progressively over september-december 2017, mostly the last 2 months.
Some day someone might have heard from a colleague "hey have you heard about this Bitcoin thing?", it's progressive not instantaneous.
And then the public, "mainstreet", joined Bitcoin from late 2017 to early 2019, so over a 1 and a half year period.
The price of copper was vertical before passing all time high. So I expect it to continue on the same trajectory. Simple. Just like Lumber last year.
It's funny to compare copper and lumber, when Lumber past ATH in 2020 it did a doji on the daily chart, with the body in the middle, and copper just had the exact same candle on ATH last week on the 4 hour chart.
Lumber is a MACHINE which has been offering the rich a crazy risk to reward.
Most of us are poor plebes that cannot afford to buy a full lot of lumber (worth $100K-$200K you have to multiply the price by 110) with a risk of $10,000 and potentially much more on a gap. Plus most retail brokers do not even offer lumber.
But we can buy copper mini or even micro lots. Which brings us to the third question. Where to buy?
We already started to answer this question and looked at some examples.
In reality I see only 2 ways to buy (be it spot or a call):
- On a retest of ATH
- FOMO, for example on a 1 hour red candle
There is nothing in between for me, if the price reverses then I would expect it to go all the way down to ATH (implied volatility, support and all).
Considering how the price has been behaving I'd expect something similar to lumber daily chart but on the 4 hour chart.
I would buy any inside bar for example. Possibly even any 1 hour red candle. And as it goes up keep buying more.
Copper could go to $8, $20 evenPushing the price up:
- High demand for EVS, renewable energy production, the Green New Deal, means copper production is below demand and expected to be in shortage for years
- Stimulus spending and inflation of industrial goods
- Producers cannot increase supply fast enough, examples: Freeport CEO "It will take 7-8 years to get new production to the market", "Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolian super mine) is set to bring a further 480,000 tonnes of copper into the market from 2028"
www.mining.com
www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk
Stopping (or slowing) the price from going up:
- Traders taking profit (short term)
- An end to all the renewable projects
- A total collapse of civilization?
This is what happened with the previous price explosion in the 2000s
As the price consolidates around ATH we might want to bet on the price going up up up in usd terms
I'd just go for the DEC 2022 contract, or a DEC 2022 call:
There is a discount on that contract too (backwardation).
At a price of $4 1 contract = $100,000. A 10% stop is a risk of $10,000.
So maybe we'll just take short term trades on the way up. Unless we all become millionaires in a few months with Cryptos?
There is an e-mini for copper but no one trades that, I don't even know if I have access to this and where/what broker? Plus I don't see DEC 22 :(
www.cmegroup.com
Remember Copper? Time to buy (not advice)Hello. I talked about Copper back in March, and then in May, ideas linked below.
It has been 6 months, and after patiently waiting well here we are.
From a "George Soros investment tips" article:
"Short term investing, it must be stressed, is not like day trading. Day trading is really kind of a myth. You can’t just sit at home, follow stock trends and expect to turn a profit from one day to the next. Short term means waiting for months to expect any return on your investment."
Well I did wait 6 months. George Soros waits to buy for months, then he buys, waits for weeks, and then his gains happen over a few days. This is more what I'd expect. Seems like it always works this way.
Don't have much to add about the price going up, now is just the time to buy for me, not much has changed.
Wyckoff spring? Upthrust? Something something. Doesn't matter.
In the short term there was some FUD about China demand which helped create the down movement (typical).
In the medium term USD goes down, commodities go up, maybe energy makes it worse, green transition demands lots of material...
There is a lot we can read about copper, well a bit, not a lot compared to Oil or Bitcoin but still, enough. They talk much about the risk, it could not go up and so on. Great, noob retail gamblers, hedge fund managers, industrials and other hedgers are being careful, wait and see. Best to wait and see, because of the risk. But me? I want the risk, someone has to take it. Yes please give me the risk that's my job. Not for hedgers or gamblers. I'm as close as it gets to being stopped or winning without a greedy entry that would cause me to always miss out. Top inflexion point. Here if it goes to ~$5 I think I'll be making 10 times what I'd lose if stopped. I'm here to enter at the maximum risk, maximum "we don't know let's wait and see", I'm here to take hits.
Once there is certainty we'll probably be close to the top, and there might be a big violent correction with the gamblers snatching profits, also of course the miners want to sell, then the hedge funds that want certainty will be looking to get in on that correction. Not sure what I will do, probably weak hands once I'm at a high multiple of my risk. Probably just take another hit though.
Copper: Descending Channel...A Buy SignalCopper is testing a strong support area.
The downward movement descended in the form of a descending channel.
Given that the main trend is very strong, we can expect the price to move above the channel again.
From there we have to see again for another sell opportunity.
Targets:
4.6300
4.7400
Thank you and Good Luck!
Elliott Wave View: Copper (HG) Looks to Extend HigherShort Term view in Copper suggests the rally from September 21 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from September 21 low, wave ((i)) ended at 4.3175 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 4.0545. The metal then extends higher in wave ((iii)) as another 5 waves in lesser degree. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 4.3955 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 4.3050. The metal extends higher in wave (iii) towards 4.781, wave (iv) ended at 4.7025, and wave (v) of ((iii)) ended at 4.823.
Pullback in wave ((iv)) is proposed complete at 4.537 as a double three structure. However, the metal still needs to break above wave ((iii)) at 4.823 to rule out a double correction. Down from wave ((iii)), wave (w) ended at 4.5935, wave (x) ended at 4.7575, and wave (y) ended at 4.5370. This completed wave ((iv)) in higher degree. Up from there, the metal should end wave (i) of ((v)) soon with 1 more push higher. It should then pullback in wave (ii) before the rally resumes. Near term, while pullback stays above 4.537, and more importantly above 4.309, expect the metal to extend higher within wave ((v)).
New trading Strategy upgrade - CopperHi traders, this is my personal trading idea only. Please give an AGREE/ LIKE, my trading strategy is Price Auction - using Chart only, your comments are highly welcome. My chaos drawing is not to predict and guess the further, it is my plan where we are on the chart and how we shall trade on what we see. Trade well & Good luck guys.
