Can $ALB Triple Without Lithium Prices Hitting All-Time Highs?🧠 TL;DR
Albemarle ( NYSE:ALB ), a global lithium heavyweight, has seen its stock price collapse over 70% from its 2022 highs, closely tracking the decline in lithium spot prices. With lithium carbonate plunging from ~$80,000/ton to under $15,000/ton, many investors assume a rebound in the commodity is a precondition for a meaningful recovery in $ALB.
But what if that assumption is wrong?
This post explores whether Albemarle can stage a powerful comeback even if lithium prices remain far below their peak. Once lithium bottoms—potentially soon—investors can begin extrapolating annual demand growth and embed those expectations into the share price, setting the stage for a valuation rerating.
The headline chart tracks the long-term price relationship between Albemarle and lithium carbonate, normalized and plotted on a logarithmic scale. It shows the synchronized peaks of 2022, the ensuing crash, and where that correlation may have decoupled.
While the lithium price collapse has been severe, NYSE:ALB has arguably overcorrected — potentially pricing in a long-term depression in lithium that may never materialize.
🏭 Revenue, Net Income, and Lithium
This chart juxtaposes Albemarle's trailing revenue and net income against spot lithium prices. Despite a sharp fall in the commodity, the company posted two successive quarters of profitability, and revenue remains well above pre-boom levels.
This resilience suggests:
Multi-year pricing contracts offer insulation from spot volatility
Cost structure remains profitable even at current prices
Demand tailwinds (EVs, grid storage) are still pushing through
📊 Negative Forward P/E, Positive Earnings, and Discount to NAV
While forward P/E metrics have dipped into negative territory, this doesn’t tell the full story. The company delivered back-to-back profitable quarters, and the current share price reflects a significant discount to estimated net asset value.
The market is currently punishing ALB based on trailing pessimism and collapsing sentiment, rather than forward fundamentals. When lithium prices stabilize, even at mid-cycle levels, investors may reprice ALB based on future earnings potential and hard assets—not backward-looking assumptions.
🔍 Key Takeaways
🔋 Demand Remains Strong
EVs, grid storage, and electrification trends are not slowing. Lithium demand is projected to more than triple by 2030. Even modest demand growth off the current base will stretch supply chains, especially if new projects are delayed.
🏗️ Albemarle’s Structural Edge
With a relatively low cost of production and long-term contracts in place, ALB is positioned to ride through the downturn. The company has already demonstrated profitability at today's prices.
📉 Valuation Compression = Opportunity
At current levels, the stock appears to price in a scenario of sustained low lithium prices and declining demand. But the company’s hard assets, cost advantage, and future demand curve suggest a different reality.
🧠 Final Thought
Once lithium prices bottom—maybe relatively soon—investors can begin to extrapolate the rate of annual growth and embed those expectations into the share price, potentially triggering a sharp re-rating before spot prices ever return to their highs.
