Sit on hands! Wait for Gold to reveal its move!Letting monday play out. We should get a better, clear move on Tuesday after price has moved to establish a low for the week. not trying to be to early to the party so we wait for now.
MMMicro Gold Futures
3,370.8USD / APZD
+6.8+0.20%
As of today at 05:38 GMT
USD / APZ
No trades
MGC1! trade ideas
GOLD - WEEKLY SUMMARY 10.3-14.3 / FORECAST🏆 GOLD – 3rd week of the new base cycle (15-20+ weeks). The previous cycle lasted 15 weeks. This may have been the shortest correction to a base cycle low in gold’s history. The reason lies in retrograde Venus, which strongly impacts currencies and, in turn, gold. This year, retrograde Venus crashed the dollar, amplifying gold’s bullish momentum.
In my February 23 post, I wrote:
"The next extreme forecast is March 3 – the beginning of the retrograde Venus period, which I mentioned in early December. I cautiously assume that March 3 could mark the start of a new base cycle in gold from one of the listed support levels."
👉 I also did not rule out the start of a new cycle in the last post. By then, our long position from the March 3 extreme forecast had already reached breakeven. This extreme forecast reversed gold upward from the extreme forecast level of October 28 (2850 on current futures).
⚠️ Next extreme forecasts for gold: March 17 and March 24.
Shorting Gold!Gold has been on a TEAR through 2025. Overextended in ATH territory and more expensive than ever before in history. Logically, we should expect a return to historically normal (still expensive) prices.
Daily chart is showing 3/3 sell signals
1. Price below 9 period MA
2. RSI bearish fanning beautifully from overbought levels
3. Average Daily Range expanding with volatility
I'm aggressively watching for shorts on Gold, Silver, and Copper in the weeks ahead. I've outlined 3 possible entries IF we're lucky enough to see some kind of relief from last weeks selloff. Should price proceed to fall, preparing smaller time frame short trades. I strongly believe we will see 2800. Strategy is invalidated if price breaches ATH's
Use Buy The Dip Like a LynchWhile we can’t say for certain that Merrill Lynch specifically uses VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) in their strategies, one thing is clear: they certainly rely on sophisticated statistical tools and data-driven insights to inform their investment decisions. Merrill Lynch, known for its expertise and successful track record, employs a range of techniques to navigate market fluctuations and identify profitable opportunities.
In the fast-paced world of trading, every decision counts. One strategy that has stood the test of time is Buy the Dip (BTD). This approach involves buying assets after they’ve experienced a temporary drop, anticipating that the price will bounce back 📉➡️📈. However, timing the dip correctly can be challenging without accurate data and predictive tools.
This article explores how to enhance your Buy the Dip predictions using OHLC Range Map and 4 VWAPs set to Century on TradingView.
What is the Buy the Dip Strategy? 🤔
The Buy the Dip (BTD) strategy is simple yet effective. Traders buy an asset after its price has fallen, believing that the dip is temporary and the price will soon rise again 📉➡️📈. The challenge, however, is knowing when the dip is truly an opportunity rather than the start of a longer-term downtrend.
This is where data-driven insights come into play. Rather than relying solely on intuition, having the right tools can make all the difference. With the OHLC Range Map, traders can gain a clearer understanding of price action, which helps identify whether a dip is worth buying 💰.
Strategies for Predicting Buy the Dip Levels 📍
Spot the Dip Using 4 VWAPS set to Century
Spot the Dip Using OHLC Range Map
1. Spot the Dip Using 4 VWAPS set to Century 🎯
Load 4 VWAPs on the chart, and configure them as follow:
1st VWAP: Source - Open, Period - Century
2st VWAP: Source - High, Period - Century
3rd VWAP: Source - Low, Period - Century
4th VWAP: Source - Close, Period - Century
When the price approaches key support or resistance zones, such as VWAP bands, particularly for well-established assets like ES, NQ, BTC, NVDA, AAPL, and others, there's a high probability of price reversal.
By combining this with price action analysis, you can identify precise entry points for a position with greater accuracy.
2. Spot the Dip Using OHLC Range Map 👀
The OHLC Range Map is a powerful statistical tool designed to plot key Manipulation (M) and Distribution levels over a specific time period. By visualizing these levels, traders can gain insights into market behavior and potential price movements.
For example, when analyzing the ES chart, we can observe that the bearish distribution level has already been reached for the next 12 months. This suggests that the market may be poised for a reversal, with the expectation of higher prices in the near future. By identifying these critical levels, traders can anticipate market trends and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Key Takeaways 🔍📊
Buy the Dip (BTD): The BTD strategy involves buying assets after a temporary price drop, expecting a price rebound.
Enhancing BTD Predictions: Using OHLC Range Map and 4 VWAPs on TradingView improves the accuracy of Buy the Dip predictions.
Spotting the Dip with 4 VWAPs: Configuring 4 VWAPs (Open, High, Low, Close) on a chart helps identify key support and resistance zones for potential price reversals.
Using the OHLC Range Map: The OHLC Range Map helps pinpoint Manipulation and Distribution levels, aiding in market trend anticipation and timing.
Combining Tools for Precision: Integrating the OHLC Range Map and VWAPs with price action analysis allows for more accurate Buy the Dip entry points.
GOLD FUTURES: SUPER SIDEWAYS ACTION. TRADERS DEATH VALLEYGold appears to be forming a bullish flag pattern, consolidating before a potential breakout toward $3,000. Institutional shorting activity has been detected ahead of this key level, which could indicate strategic positioning or an attempt to suppress price momentum. This movement also aligns with broader macroeconomic sentiment, suggesting that Trump’s policies may be perceived as favorable for the U.S. dollar, potentially influencing gold’s price action.
The market remains in a sideways phase, awaiting further confirmation of direction.
Job Jolts Data 3/11/25COMEX_MINI:MGC1! us Job Jolts
-This print is from January when Trump took office, so there may be a higher probability that the markets may not react to this print.
Im looking for if we get a stronger print then it will be stronger dollar and stronger equities and if is a lower print weaker dollar and weaker equites, but since I closed before news I will wait for a break of structure, I trade mostly gold I will be patient and wait for the right oppurtunity.
/GC Breakdown of Range - Trading PlanContext:
Daily - Sell
4H - Sell
The market broke out the range for the previous 3 days. There appears to be a lower high made on the HTF daily so market is clearly in a downtrend for gold now. Shorts are more likely to pay. The daily closed beneath 2903 4H Pivot and new supply has entered at 2918.
2904 - Looking to fade any buying going into this level. Price must be firmly underneath this level for shorts. Target 2880 area.
A scenario could play out where there has been deviation beneath the range. Then 2904 would be a level to long. However, give the HTF structure this is not something that I would prefer trade.
2880 - watch for acceptance and wait for MSS in 5m/15m to enter into trade. The long trade isn’t ideal but there may still be juice to squeeze. Target back at 2903. However, I’m not too confident on this level holding given the HTF bearishness.
If the market blows past level, look to sell any pullbacks into the level. Target 2885.
No Demand and Wyckoff VSA Upthrust in Downtrend ExplainedIn this short educational video, Author and Fund Manager, Gavin Holmes, explains the key Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis trade set ups called "No Demand After Selling" and "Upthrust after selling confirmed" using Trade To Win for TradingView Pro.
The example is the NQ Nasdaq futures but this set up works in all markets and multiple timeframes.
Amid Price Uncertainty, Gold Straddle Paves the PathYellow metal prices have soared. It has been setting several new all-time highs with futures trading just shy of the USD 3,000/oz level. However, gold has struggled to breach past the crucial mark despite multiple attempts.
Some data points suggest that the rally in gold might be losing steam even though fundamental demand drivers remain intact.
A nuanced position is required at times like this. Options are tailored to help portfolio managers to position shrewdly in such dicey situations.
GEOPOLITICAL RISK IS PERSISTENTLY ELEVATED IN THE NEW WORLD ORDER
The Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) remains above one hundred since 2022 which reflects sustained global uncertainty driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions. This trend has persisted for years, with recent tariff-related uncertainty adding fuel to this fire.
Data Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty
Gold, as a safe haven asset, benefits from these conditions. However, the recent bond selloff has driven Treasury rates higher which could potentially reduce demand for gold as it is a non-yielding asset.
CENTRAL BANKS ARE LOADING ON RISING GLOBAL TRADE UNCERTAINTIES
Central banks are resuming gold purchases, with January showing an uptick, albeit below the 2024 average. The accelerating pace could signal further momentum, particularly amid rising global trade uncertainty.
Data Source: WGC
China resumed gold buying in November 2024 following a six-month hiatus. China was one of the largest buyers in 2023 and a repeat of that in 2025 will see a sharp demand spike.
LARGE GOLD FLOWS INTO THE US
The large financial institutions which serve as counterparties in the futures market have been importing significant quantities of physical gold to the US. The recent flows have surpassed levels seen during COVID pandemic.
Physical imports have been driven by fears of a tariff on gold imports. However, the pace of imports has slowed down and is starting to plateau.
Looking back at 2020, when similar conditions arose, prices remained stagnant after the sharp rally driven by physical gold imports. The risk of a repeating pattern is even more potent given the strong resistance at the USD 3,000/oz level. A strong driver may be required to allow prices to cross this threshold.
Chart Source: WGC
Another factor contributing to the temporary physical supply shock is the refining process required before gold reaches the U.S.
The physical gold reserves held in London for Good Delivery are the 400-oz bars, which must be refined into 1-kilo bars for CME delivery. This process requires an intermediate stop in Switzerland, adding delays that exacerbate supply constraints.
However, as the additional refined metals reach the U.S. in the coming weeks, supply is expected to normalize, potentially putting downward pressure on prices.
Chart Source: WGC
Other supply stress indicators are easing. Gold leasing rates, which reflect the cost of borrowing for physical use, recently surged above 5%, with near-term borrowing costs rising sharply. Leasing rates have returned to normal, albeit slightly elevated.
TECHNICAL SIGNALS POINT TO STRONG MOMENTUM ENCOUNTERING RESISTANCE
The summary below suggests a bullish stance in gold but prices are encountering resistance. Over the past month, prices have faced strong resistance at the USD 3,000 level despite a strongly bullish sentiment.
The resistance formed after a stunning rally which pushed gold into overbought territory, a correction at this stage is expected.
Should momentum fade, gold prices may continue to consolidate between present levels and the 100-day moving average.
Gold futures prices formed a death-cross on 5th March 2025 which may fuel a near term price correction.
GOLD VOLATILITY IS NOT LOW BUT CAN RISE HIGHER IF CONDITIONS TURNS TENSE
Gold Volatility as measured by CME’s Gold CVol printed a high of 50.13 on 18th March 2020 and a low of 8.18 on 3rd May 2019.
Presently hovering at 16.35, the implied volatility in gold is not too low but below average with the potential to spike higher should geopolitical or other shocks rock the market.
Source: CME CVol
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Fundamentals remain intact and could intensify if tariff and/or geopolitical tensions peak. That said, the phenomenal gold rally is starting to lose shine as it encounters strong resistance with death cross forming on 5th March 2025.
Supply shocks that fueled the rally in Feb are now fading.
Equity risks are elevated with expensive S&P 500 P/E multiples. Geopolitical and trade risk remain tense. These conditions support a further bullish position in gold.
With prices expected to swing either way, portfolio managers are best positioned to have a convex position that gains from sharp moves in either direction.
To express this ambivalent view on the path ahead for gold prices, portfolio managers can utilize CME Micro Gold Options to establish a long straddle (combination of long put & long call) that gains from (a) deep pull back in prices (puts gain in value), or (b) sharp rally (calls deliver the gains), and (c) implied volatility expansion (where both puts & calls gain in value).
Conversely, this trade will incur losses if prices remain flat and if volatility shrinks.
The pay-off of the hypothetical long straddle set up using CME Micro Gold Options June 2025 contract expiring on 27th May 2025 is illustrated below.
The long call at a strike of 2,945 will cost USD 84.9 per lot and the long put at the same strike will cost USD 86.9 per lot adding up to USD 171.80 per lot in total premiums. The long straddle will generate positive returns at expiry if the underlying futures prices are (a) above the upper break even point of USD 3,116.80/oz, or (b) below the lower break even point of USD 2,732.20/oz.
Source: QuikStrike Strategy Simulator
If the underlying futures prices stay within the break-even points, this straddle is exposed to a maximum loss of USD 171.80/lot representing the total premium. Happy Investing.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Gold 05-08 long, pullback continue to longGold, last Friday's non-farm payrolls did not give a clear direction, and continued to fluctuate within a large range. The key pressure above remained at the 30 line, while the support below continued to be accompanied by constant shocks, and the lows continued to rise. However, the range has not been broken, and the daily moving average system is also concentrated here. Near the position, the lower mid-rail position and the short-term moving average position have also continued to move upward, providing effective support to the bulls. In the short term, we will also maintain above this position and continue to wait for long positions. With the long-term sideways trading in the range, we currently need more patience to wait for the later breakthrough and continue to follow up, and the hour The line is also expected to form an upward triangle consolidation interval. Once it continues to break through in the later period, the amplitude can be imagined. Moreover, the daily line also closed in the form of a cross star with a negative line on Friday, and the upper and lower top and bottom positions of this position are also the key support and pressure points in the later period. Therefore, we will first maintain a long position near the lower support of 2900 and wait, with the target around 20-30. If it breaks upward, it can still look up to around 50. If it retreats below 2900 for a long time, this position is basically equivalent to the 5-day line position of the weekly line. Once it breaks down, we need to consider adjusting our thinking.
3.10 Gold is still bearish todayAlthough the non-agricultural data on Friday was significantly bullish for gold, the daily pressure level has not been broken for three consecutive days. Today's idea is still to short when the daily pressure level ranges from 2919.50 to 2930, or to short directly at 2928.50.
Support and pressure levels of gold in various cycles:
Gold weekly support level 2715.00 area, gold daily pressure level 2919 to 2930 range, gold 4-hour support level 2904.00 area
Today's suggestion: short gold in the 2910.50 area, stop loss 2920, take profit 2890
Or short the 2920 range if the small cycle falls below the support level and rebounds to the pressure level
GC - Golden Rocketship To The U-MLHWe got on the Rocket-Ship earlier and took profit.
If you're still in with a position, or if you can manage to get in with a decent Risk/Reward, you may want to aim for the U-MLH.
The Stars look good and profits are twinkling §8-)
If the 1/4 line is cracked, we will see a follow-through.
GOLD | XAUUSD Weekly Market Forecast: Mar 10-14 In this video, we will analyze the GOLD Futures. We'll determine the bias for the upcoming week, and look for the best potential setups.
Gold has consolidated for the last half of the previous week. Trading in a ranging market is not recommended! But waiting until there is an obvious sweep of the high or low liquidity pools can give us an indication which side the market will break the consolidation. Patience and a watchful eye will allow us to take advantage of the momentous opportunity.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GOLD - WEEKLY SUMMARY 3.3-7.3 / FORECAST🏆 GOLD – 17th week of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks). As expected, the pivot forecast on March 3 reversed gold upward from the extreme forecast level of October 28 (2850 on current futures). A new base cycle cannot be ruled out, though technical confirmation is lacking. The usual cycle length for gold is closer to 20 weeks, so we remain in the final phase, and anything is possible—traders must react accordingly.
👉 Pivot forecast trade on February 24 yielded a $3K–$5K per contract move into retrograde Venus on March 3—congrats to those who entered, a solid trade.
A long position was opened at the March 3 extreme forecast, which is now at breakeven.
⚠️ Next extreme forecast: March 17—coinciding with the start of retrograde Mercury.
Gold Futures (COMEX) - 1H Chart Technical Analysis1. Price Action & Trend Analysis
The current price is $2,917.7, showing a slight decline of -0.02%.
The chart reflects a sideways consolidation phase, as seen within the highlighted blue rectangular range.
A support zone is forming around $2,900 - $2,910, while resistance appears near $2,930 - $2,940.
There are two possible price projections:
Bullish Scenario (Red Projection): If price sustains above the Point of Control (POC: $2,927.8), it could move upwards toward $2,950 - $2,980.
Bearish Scenario (Blue Projection): If price fails to hold $2,910, further downside toward $2,870 - $2,850 is likely.
2. Volume Profile & Point of Control (POC)
POC: $2,927.8 is the area with the highest traded volume, acting as a key resistance level.
Volume Analysis:
Last 60 bars show up volume (295.541K) < down volume (243.149K), suggesting bearish dominance with 15.47% more selling pressure.
If price remains below POC, a bearish breakdown is possible.
3. Support & Resistance Levels
Immediate Resistance: $2,927 - $2,930 (POC level)
Next Resistance: $2,950 - $2,980 (Projected upside)
Immediate Support: $2,910 - $2,900 (Lower range)
Key Support Zone: $2,870 - $2,850 (Bearish target if breakdown occurs)
4. Trend Channels & Market Structure
Two projected channels are present:
Bullish Channel (Red) suggests an upward breakout could lead to $2,950 - $2,980.
Bearish Channel (Blue) shows a breakdown could target $2,870 - $2,850.
5. Trading Strategy Suggestions
Bullish Bias:
A breakout above $2,930 - $2,940 could push price toward $2,950 - $2,980.
Buy if price sustains above POC ($2,927.8) with a stop-loss below $2,910.
Bearish Bias:
A breakdown below $2,910 could trigger a drop to $2,870 - $2,850.
Sell if price fails at $2,927.8 and breaks below $2,910, with a stop-loss above $2,930.
Conclusion
POC ($2,927.8) is the key level to watch for direction.
If price stays below POC, expect further bearish movement.
A breakout above $2,930 could trigger bullish continuation.
The volume analysis favors bears slightly, but confirmation is needed.
Gold Futures (COMEX) - 1H Trade Setup & Risk Management
Since the market is in consolidation near the Point of Control (POC: $2,927.8), we will set up both bullish and bearish trade scenarios based on price action.
📈 Bullish Trade Setup (Breakout Above $2,930 - $2,940)
Entry:
Buy above $2,932 - $2,935 (Confirmation of breakout & retest).
Wait for a strong candle close above resistance ($2,930) with increasing volume.
Target Levels:
Target 1: $2,950
Target 2: $2,970
Target 3: $2,980
Stop-Loss:
Place SL below $2,910 (Strong support level).
Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR):
Target 1: ~1:2
Target 2: ~1:3
Target 3: ~1:4
📉 Bearish Trade Setup (Breakdown Below $2,910)
Entry:
Sell below $2,907 - $2,905 after a clear breakdown with strong volume.
Ideally, wait for a retest of $2,910 as resistance before shorting.
Target Levels:
Target 1: $2,880
Target 2: $2,870
Target 3: $2,850
Stop-Loss:
Place SL above $2,930 (Key resistance level & POC).
Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR):
Target 1: ~1:2
Target 2: ~1:3
Target 3: ~1:4
🔹 Risk Management Tips
✅ Trade only after confirmation (Breakout or breakdown with volume).
✅ Risk per trade: Keep it 1-2% of your capital.
✅ Avoid trading inside the range ($2,910 - $2,930) unless there's a strong move.
✅ Use trailing stop-loss to secure profits once price moves in favor.
🔥 Final Thoughts
If price holds above POC ($2,927.8) → Expect bullish move toward $2,950 - $2,980.
If price rejects POC & breaks $2,910, expect bearish drop to $2,870 - $2,850.
Volume favors bears slightly, but confirmation is key before taking trades.
Bullish Movement in hidingThe Gold chart has a lot of info in display.If you go with the most current structure, you will see an (M) formation first,then a Bullish Flag and when you zoom out you notice a bigger structure of an Inverse Head and Shoulders(IHnS).
So basically, there should be a short term sell to complete 90% of the M before moving upwards. This would mean placing a reminder at 2895.3 for the reversal of the M.
As for the Bullish Flag it should be at 2904.0 but this can lead to a stop loss hunt if your SL
isnt big enough to anticipate a wick all the way to 2892.0 or slitely further.
Finally, the as for the Inverse Head and Shoulders(IHnS), the best entry would be at 2895.3
