MHG1! trade ideas
Detailed Elliot Wave Analysis of Copper with Predictions
The recent rally in Copper prices sure feels like a wave 3. Volume is great. In wave 3 according to RN Elliot is usually the most powerful wave in a trend. Prices rise quickly and corrections are very short lived and shallow. Anyone looking to get in on a pullback will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1. This is where we are at currently at 1.618. Looks to me this is the End of wave 3. Anyone looking to get in should wait for wave 4 to play out which will provide a very good risk reward trade. And according to RN Elliot research Wave 5 is the largest in the commodities.
Note - If wave 4 Monthly closed anywhere in the price range of wave 1 this idea is invalid
This is my preferred count of Elliot wave Analysis on Copper. It’s a logarithmic chart. So we had a 15.5 years long Ending Diagonal which ended with a explosive breakout. Followed by Double Combo WXY. W was an Expanded Flat with C Wave going deep testing the breakout point of the Diagonal. And then X wave correction in three waves marked abc. And then the y wave which is the larger trend finished higher than W which is unusual case. I have given the subwave count of wave 1.
Subwave count of wave 3 :
Wave 1 finished at median line of pitchfork
Wave 2 was a running flat correction
Wave 3 almost kissed the 1.0 line of the pitchfork
Wave 4 correction was a symmetrical triangle broke out in the direction of B wave. It also comply with guide of alteration.
And looks like we my have just ended subwave 5 and Main wave 3 as you can see in the chart it has made a lower low on daily timeframe
Thank you for reading
Will appreciate your feedback
Copper Starting to Look Weaker Rather Than StrongerSupply entered the market in February evidenced by the close at approx 3/4 and confirmed by March's bar - a down bar of similar volume closing slightly above the halfway point of February's bar. March's bar was approximately only half the spread of February's bar indicating that there wasn't good ease of movement to the downside. The close in the bottom third of the bar also indicated that buyers were still present.
April confirmed this fact with a widespread upbar on slightly reduced volume closing close to the top of the bar. The spread of the bar although being widespread was still less than that of February, and the close did not provide much gain over February's high indicating that although buyers were present they were having to exert far more effort to markup prices.
This was confirmed by May's bar with a reduced spread, increased volume and close at the midpoint indicating both a reduced ease of movement to the upside and supply entering the market.
🏛COPPER SWING ANALYSIS|LONG🚀
🏛COPPER is trading in an uptrend in a rising channel
And as you can see on the chart number 1
The metal broke the pervious all time high with ease on the daily
But then retraced back below the level
While staying inside the rising channel
All of the above paints a mixed picture
But until the channel gets broken,I will remain bullish
But further growth will depend on the coppers ability to fix itself above the key level
If it fails to do so, we will see a bearish breakout eventually
And the price will go down to the nearest support
LONG🚀
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BEWARE IMPORTANT COPPER PRICE LEVEL - HG1! - COPPER - DAILYThank you for your likes and comments! Really appreciated! This is an idea about Copper price, not a financial advice.
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The HG1! Copper Futures have been continuously rising... almost a year.
We realized that summer is coming and that this market have been beating all the selling power trying to bring it down of slower it>
How long is it going to last?
The blue lines represent the channel that the price is following. Being at the top of this channel and seeing a possible strong signal of a pullback, the probability of seeing the market profile change has risen.
The volume involved where huge but will it again beat it and keep going up further?
The next step down is probably at the dotted red horizontal line. Some other "super volumes" interventions happened in that past at that price level.
For a day traders, this is probably something to keep an eye on> For a longer term trader, lowering the exposition is probably smart at this price level. Reentering step by step after this level is passed or when the deep happens.
Price action on #Copper $HG The narrative around copper is very compelling.
1) $5T of Government spending in the next 10 years for renewable energy development
2) Electric cars
3) Miners underinvestment in recent years
What this says to me is the simple fundamentals from miners...limited supply would be enough to extend this commodity bull cycle.
Beyond that...we have car manufacturers making bold moves to have a majority of their fleets electric within the next 10 years.
European and California carbon credits markets are becoming more developed...producing incentives for companies to move towards greener technologies. Whether you agree with the politics of it or not...it is happening.
And massive government spending on renewable energy.
What does all this green stuff have to do with copper?
All these need copper...and lots of it!
With just experiences a 50% retracement from the May 21st high of 4.5815 and made a double top with divergent RSI this morning.
Zooming in we can see some impulsive buying around the $4.5 area.
The long term trend in copper looks very promising.
Could it go lower? Of course...but today's price action has me watching very closely.
HG needs a significant correction before next leg up. Risk/reward in short and medium term is not playing in your favour.
Copper has been extremely overextended in last 12 months. Current up wave was huge but I think we need to see a correction.
Looking at a weekly bars and although new commodity/metals super-cycle has theoretically just begun but we should see a significant declines and profit taking before next leg up.
If inflation fears will materialize, copper, just like most of the metals should see much higher prices in a long term. But for now if you want to build your position for next 5-10y, wait for correction. My take on copper based on HG futures chart.
