I Cracked The Bearish Code on Copper Using COTCopper is setup for sells based on fundamental underlying conditions.
We also see confirmations from accumulation measurements, seasonals & cycle analysis.
MHGF2026 trade ideas
COPPER The 1D MA50 is the key.Last time we looked at Copper (HG1!) was on January 24 (see chart below) giving a buy signal that easily hit our 4.6550 Target:
This time the market is in front of a critical moment. The 2025 pattern has been a Channel Up, which last Wednesday reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Up. As long as the 2025 pattern holds, the recent pull-back is a buy opportunity targeting 5.3745.
If the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks however, we expect a quick dive, rebound re-test and rejection, similar to July 05 2024. In that case, we will target the bottom of the 1-year Channel Up at 4.150.
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Copper possible rebound over Fibonacci resistanceCopper has been moving quite in accordance with Fibonacci (two different traces).
The general trend is bearish, so the most probable outcome is a rebound on the Fibonacci resistance.
We will wait for confirmation - rebound and closed daily candle below the resistance.
Copper Bounce? $HG1! at Key Demand Zone!Back at a strong demand level on COMEX:HG1! (Copper futures). The key invalidation is a 4-hour close below 3.92, so I'll be watching closely to manually close.
I'm looking for a potential bounce from here, and if the weekly candle closes bullish, I may consider this a reversal setup. The confluence between the weekly support and the current demand zone gives me confidence to take the trade.
If the move fails, my next level to watch is 3.7 for another potential entry.
Let’s see if COMEX:HG1! behaves this time.
Copper's Grip: Stronger Than Oil's?Is the U.S. economy poised for a red metal revolution? The escalating demand for copper, fueled by the global transition to clean energy, the proliferation of electric vehicles, and the modernization of critical infrastructure, suggests a shifting economic landscape where copper's significance may soon eclipse oil. This vital metal, essential for everything from renewable power systems to advanced electronics, is becoming increasingly central to U.S. economic prosperity. Its unique properties and expanding applications in high-growth sectors position it as a linchpin for future development, potentially rendering it more crucial than traditional energy sources in the years to come. This sentiment is echoed by recent market activity, with copper prices hitting a new record high, reaching $5.3740 per lb. on the COMEX. This surge has widened the price gap between New York and London to approximately $1,700 a tonne, signaling strong U.S. demand.
However, this burgeoning importance faces a looming threat: the potential imposition of U.S. tariffs on copper imports. Framed under the guise of national security concerns, these tariffs could trigger significant economic repercussions. By increasing the cost of imported copper, a vital component for numerous domestic industries, tariffs risk inflating production costs, raising consumer prices, and straining international trade relationships. The anticipation of these tariffs has already caused market volatility, with major traders at a Financial Times commodities summit in Switzerland predicting copper could reach $12,000 a tonne this year. Kostas Bintas from Mercuria noted the current "tightness" in the copper market due to substantial imports heading to the U.S. in anticipation of tariffs, which some analysts expect sooner than previously anticipated.
Ultimately, the future trajectory of the U.S. economy will be heavily influenced by the availability and affordability of copper. Current market trends reveal surging prices driven by robust global demand and constrained supply, a situation that could be further exacerbated by trade barriers. Traders are also anticipating increased industrial demand as major economies like the U.S. and EU upgrade their electricity grids, further supporting the bullish outlook. Aline Carnizelo of Frontier Commodities is among the experts forecasting a $12,000 price target. However, Graeme Train from Trafigura cautioned that the global economy remains "a little fragile," highlighting potential risks to sustained high demand. As the world continues its march towards electrification and technological advancement, copper's role will only intensify. Whether the U.S. navigates this new era with policies that ensure a smooth and cost-effective supply of this essential metal or whether protectionist measures inadvertently hinder progress remains a critical question for the nation's economic future.
Copper Pending Short: Ending of 5-waves in Ending DiagonalTake note that there is a rule breach in this analysis where wave IV is in the price zone of wave I.
Aside from that, I have drawn a 5 waves overlapping each other for wave 5 thus expecting an ending diagonal. The target of $5.22 is from the convergence of 2 Fibonacci extensions. Also, it is near to the resistance trendline. Thus the stop loss is placed above the trendline.
Good luck!
Copper is red hot right now. Here’s whyCopper’s COMEX price hit a new high on 26th March making the red metal red hot right now. The first three months of 2025 have seen industrial metals make noticeable gains with the Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex up 10.55% year to date1. Copper’s gains, however, stand out for numerous reasons.
Tariffs
The additional premium of COMEX prices over the London Metal Exchange (LME) prices reflects aggressive buying by US traders importing copper in anticipation of a possible 25% tariff on copper imports. This speculation has been fuelled by President Trump last month ordering a probe into the threat to national security from the imports of copper. As aluminium imports were also recently subjected to tariffs, markets are speculating that copper might be next.
This rush has triggered a shift in global flows, with metal moving out of LME warehouses and into US Comex facilities, where copper is held on a “duty paid” basis to avoid future levies. As traders front-run potential policy changes, this behaviour is tightening global supply and fuelling price gains, adding to a market already under pressure from rising demand and a looming supply squeeze.
Demand
China has given an additional boost to copper prices having announced a new action plan to boost domestic consumption by raising household incomes. The stimulus is seen as a positive signal for copper demand, especially as retail sales have already shown stronger-than-expected growth early in the year. China has also set itself a GDP growth target of 5% for 2025, and so far this year, its manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has remained in expansionary territory — a sign that the economy is holding steady. With momentum building across consumption and manufacturing, copper is getting a fresh tailwind despite lingering weakness in the property sector.
Further support for industrial metals, including copper, has come from Germany’s recently unveiled €1 trillion infrastructure and defence spending plan — a move that will inevitably drive greater demand for base metals.
Supply
Supply tightness in the copper market is being driven by several structural and emerging challenges. Exceptionally low processing fees—caused by an oversupply of smelting capacity, particularly in China—have placed financial strain on global smelters, prompting companies like Glencore to halt operations at its facility in the Philippines. Looking ahead, Indonesia’s proposal to shift from a flat 5% copper mining royalty to a progressive rate of 10–17% risks discouraging future production growth. These supply-side pressures come as the International Copper Study Group reported a slight global copper deficit in January 2025. While a similar shortfall at the start of 2024 eventually turned into a surplus, this time the combination of weakening smelting economics, policy headwinds, and solid demand could make the current deficit more persistent and impactful.
Several major copper miners have recently downgraded their production estimates for 2025, adding further pressure to an already tight market. Glencore suspended output at its Altonorte smelter in Chile2, while Freeport-McMoRan delayed refined copper sales from its Manyar smelter in Indonesia due to a fire3. Anglo American expects lower output from its Chilean operations amid maintenance and water challenges, and First Quantum Minerals faces reduced grades and scheduled downtime4. These disruptions are likely to tighten global copper concentrate supply, potentially widening the market’s supply-demand imbalance just as demand continues to strengthen.
Sources:
1 Source: Bloomberg, based on total return index as of 28 March 2025.
2 Reuters, March 26, 2025
3 Reuters, October 16, 2024
4 Metal.com. February 14, 2025
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research, or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees, or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The impact of Trump's tariffs on the copper marketBy Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
The copper market is going through a decisive phase, influenced by political and economic factors that could alter its behavior in the coming months. The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency and his reactivation of tariff policies has generated expectations of a new record in the price of the red metal since the beginning of the year. Executives of the copper sector indicated at that time that its value could exceed 13,000 dollars per ton (approximately 404.35 dollars per ounce). One troy ounce is equivalent to 31.1034768 grams; therefore, there are 32.15074657 troy ounces in 1 kg. This means that the value of copper is multiplied by 32.1 times, a level that was already surpassed on Tuesday with its current price at 517 dollars per ounce.
United States accumulates copper while China suffers shortages
Trade tensions have led to a redistribution of global supply. It is estimated that 500,000 tons are being diverted to the U.S., which is drastically reducing stocks in China, the world's largest consumer. This supply imbalance could put further pressure on prices.
Factors driving the rise in copper prices
1. Electrification and renewable energies: The growing adoption of electric vehicles and the expansion of electric infrastructures increase the demand for copper.
2. Production constraints: Chile and Peru, the world's leading producers, face disruptions due to labor disputes, environmental regulations and lower investment in mining infrastructure.
3. U.S. trade policy: Tighter tariffs have encouraged the accumulation of reserves in the U.S. and other countries, further restricting global supply and putting upward pressure on prices.
4. Restrictions on the export of scrap from the EU: The European Union is evaluating the implementation of tariffs on the export of scrap, which could impact the supply of raw material for the production of refined copper. This measure seeks to strengthen the domestic industry and reduce dependence on third countries, but could also affect the global supply of the metal.
5. Geopolitical instability: International conflicts, trade sanctions and changes in central banks' monetary policies influence copper prices. Industrial demand from China continues to be a determining factor in the market equation.
Copper price outlook
In 2021, the metal reached an all-time high of $10,700 per tonne at $505 per ounce. Now, with the combination of growing demand and increasingly tight supply, the market could surpass this level. The evolution of trade policies and China's response will be decisive in its trajectory. Looking at the chart, it reached a new high of $518.45 on Monday. The current price oscillates between $510 and $512, showing an accumulation structure by institutional traders initiated in the last impulse of March 11. The control point (POC) is distant at around $477 per ounce, and the volume distribution shows a third dominance zone near $512. Since March 11, the golden crossover of the moving averages has facilitated bullish expansion, although the 50-average has brushed the 100-average on several occasions. Currently, both averages are in price confluence, which coincides with an RSI that has corrected from 71.84% to 54.40%. This movement could indicate the possibility of a new upward momentum that takes the price above $535.
Impact of tariff measures on the industry.
If Trump ultimately ends up implementing new tariffs on industrial metals, it could drastically alter the flow of global copper trade. Tariffs on imports could incentivize domestic copper mining in the U.S. and raise costs for importers, affecting the competitiveness of manufacturing companies. On the other hand, China may be forced to diversify its sources of supply or develop technological alternatives to reduce its dependence on imported copper.
In addition, restrictions on the export of scrap by the European Union could influence the availability of recycled copper, a key source for industrial production in China and other markets. The EU seeks to reduce the leakage of strategic materials, which could lead to higher prices on the international market for all rare metals and materials.
Conclusion
Copper is at a turning point. The combination of production restrictions, increased global demand and protectionist policies could push its price to record levels. The evolution of the geopolitical and economic context will be key to define the direction of the market in the coming months. Investors and companies in the sector will have to pay close attention to the evolution of trade policies and the response of the main market players in order to anticipate possible movements in copper prices.
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Copper Nears Possible Resistance ZoneCopper faces a potential resistance zone between 5.18 and 5.30, where seven Fibonacci extension targets align with the May 2024 peak. If this level holds, a retracement to 4.984–4.75 is possible. This area is supported by a three-point Fibonacci symmetry and the 34 EMA wave.
MACD Wobbling, crazyIn the H1 TF, price movements seem unstable, imbalanced impredictable. Just touching previous ATH last year.
MACD indicator wobbling, indicates so many traps entry.
Better stay away for awhile or proper trade strategy and money management.
Anyway, still copper futures like chibai
Copper Is Looking SexyI don't know why but the color of copper is soothing to me. Anyway, today we are looking at Copper which is RED hot for my reasons including seasonality which is coming to an end.
Here are some notes on Copper.
Daily Chart:
+ Top Keltner touch, complex pullback
+ Cycle Low
+ MACD momentum fast angling up (near 0) and slow > 0 (but flat)
+ Rainbow in play
+ price > 200
* Bullish seasonality until 3/6
* Squeeze starting in 195 min
Weekly Chart:
+ Weekly top Keltner touch
+ MACD Up
+ 10sma > 34 ema
+ price > 200
Monthly Chart
+ price > 200
+ 10 sma > 34 ema
+ Monthly squeeze with bullish momentum
+ Cycle low
Extra Notes
* Interestingly enough, copper shows strength in China and by default AUD because of trade.
* Shows strength in global economy, when copper is doing well, the world is usually growing.
#COPPER DEMAND ZONE A demand zone in trading refers to a price area where buying interest is significantly strong, often leading to a potential reversal or continuation of an upward trend. When discussing copper demand zones, we're typically looking at key price levels where buyers are likely to step in, causing the price of copper to bounce or reverse.
Copper Supply ZoneTrading In the Zone!
A copper supply zone in trading refers to a price level or area on a chart where there is a significant concentration of selling pressure, leading to a potential reversal or pause in an upward trend. This concept is commonly used in technical analysis, particularly in supply and demand trading strategies.
Key Characteristics of a Copper Supply Zone:
Price Rejection: The zone is identified by previous price action where the price of copper reversed or stalled after reaching a certain level.
High Volume: The zone often coincides with high trading volume, indicating strong selling interest.
COPPER: Resistance breakout aims for 5.1985.Copper is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 63.919, MACD = 0.127, ADX = 33.191) and having crossed today above the R1 level, it is a healthy sign of bullish continuation. This is the 3rd main bullish wave of the long term Channel Up and every time the two prior crossed above their R1 levels, the extended to a new HH. The natural target is the R2 level (TP = 5.1985).
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High grade copper HG looking bullsihCopper traded on the COMEX looks bullish.
Currently at 3.20 per pound, the chart shows an Eve and Adam bottom forming between 2015 and now. The expected target of this move would be 4.70 which would put the market five cents above its old high set in Feb 2011 of 4.65.
From 4.65 I would expect the market to revisit the 3.30-3.60 region to make a strong bottom for a longer term ascent.
Looking back further on the copper chart, there is a longer term Adam and Eve bottom forming starting in Dec 2008 to present. The target would be 7.365 based off of this longer term pattern.
If copper were to trade up to 4.70 area and come back down to 3.50 area, it would also present an opportunity for an ascending triangle to form with the same target, 7.365, as the Adam and Eve pattern.
With a weakening dollar, look to copper for guidance on inflation going forward.
Elliott Wave View: 5 Swing Sequence in Copper (HG) Favors HigherShort term Elliott Wave in Copper shows 5 swing sequence from 11.14.2024 low, favoring more upside. Up from 11.14.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 4.335 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 4.005. The metal has resumed higher in wave 3. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 4.47 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 4.1835. Internal subdivision of wave ((ii)) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (w) ended at 4.235, wave (x) ended at 4.389, and wave (y) lower ended at 4.184 which completed wave ((ii)) in higher degree.
The metal has resumed higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 4.3535 and pullback in wave ii ended at 4.3065. Wave iii higher ended at 4.5095 and pullback in wave iv ended at 4.411. Wave v higher ended at 4.715 which completed wave (i) in higher degree. Pullback in wave (ii) ended at 4.541. Pair has resumed higher in wave (iii). Near term, as far as pivot at 4.1845 low stays intact, expect dips to find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
