Copper Trading The CorrectionIn this update we review the recent price action in the Copper futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
MHG1! trade ideas
Metals Copper idea (05/09/2022)Copper futures
The rise of the metal depends on the 3.1315 support point to achieve the metal’s decline to end the correction in wave 2. before expecting the bullish rise again, and the decline may reach 3.3425 prices or it may extend to 3.2480 and may have already started to rise, but this depends on the support point at 3.3645 prices
Metals Copper idea (01/09/2022)Copper futures
The rise of the metal depends on the support point 3.1315 to achieve the bullish movement, and we expect the metal to decline to end the correction in wave 2 before completing the rise again, and the decline may reach 3.3450 prices or it may extend to 3.2510
COPPER FUTURES (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance :3.5785
Pivot: 3.4160
Support : 3.2760
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price breaking the trendline and moving below ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that the price will drop to the pivot at 3.4160 where the swing low support, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 161.8% fibonacci extension are. Once there is downside confirmation that price has broken pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to 1st support at 3.2760 where the pullback support and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 3.5785 where the pullback resistance is.
Fundamentals: No Major News
Dr Copper .. rev s-h-s targets $400 to catch up with S+P On it own, copper is near completion of a rev s-h-s targeting $400 area, and that may be enough technical justification to go long here, hoping for the imminent break out.
Look at it vs S+P and you see there is already a lot more optimism building in the (US) equity markets and I guess that makes sense, as China is facing great difficulties and Europe is equally challenged by extreme energy prices and geo political instability. Obviously, thanks to President Biden, we are seeing the US pass hugely important legislation on energy use transition.
I would say, prices are there to be respected and copper is certainly testing the last of the eco-Bears out there.
Maybe give it a few more $ to the upside to see that neck line breaking for confirmation. Incomplete s-h-s are typically quite treacherous but it seems to me there is good fundamentals behind this too.
Metals Copper idea (29/08/2022)Copper futures
The rise of the metal depends on the support point 3.1315 to achieve the bullish movement, and we expect the metal to decline to end the correction in wave 2 before completing the rise again, and the decline may reach 3.3450 prices or it may extend to 3.2510
Copper OutlookFirstly, historical trends on Copper price are extremely important to understand. As we can see from the chart, Copper has been in an ascending channel with an 8% trend angle since 1988. In March 2020, a well-developed bullish triangle ended a decade of corrective action. Corrective waves of the same degree are more closely related to each other than impulses are and this can clearly be observed here. In addition, both primary corrective waves (2 & 4) lasted for nearly a similar period, the 2nd correction with a flat ABC structure lasted for 12 years (1989-2001) while the 4th correction (2006-2010) nearly lasted14 years.
There are five waves in a major movement that can be identified. Completion of the fourth implies that the fifth impulsive wave is now underway and this simply gives an early signal that Copper prices could be pointing towards amazing highs. The intermediate count is a lower degree illustrating a possible completion of the second correction in a lower degree and this is always an amazing sight to see since the next wave (3) of 5, may be equal to, or 1.618 times the length of (1) in 5, cannot be the shortest wave and is usually steeper than the first wave.
As a result of the anticipated thrust, we may see an overthrow from the main ascending channel over the next few years, driving prices to $7.80/lb or at least $6.69/lb (1.618 Fib retracement level). A confirmation level is highlighted in chart at $4.88/lb.
Disclaimer: The information provided here is only for educational purposes and should NOT be taken as investment advice.
Copper remains defiantFollowing up on earlier heads up on copper.
Battling here (hourly) with the 38.2% Fibo retracement but it also, possibly, seems to be building on an I-shs. Somewhat remarkable given the context of risk markets. Next hurdle is test of the 50% Fibo at 3.85 but the size of that I-shs suggests we may be in for a test of 4.25 (close to 75% retracement)
Sell setupThe narrative: There has been a lot of talk about inflation and a china reopening but coppers recent collapse indicates something more ominous may be brewing.
The model-
Sell: 3.6525 or higher
Stop: 3.7200
The Ingenuity Trading Model is a Geometric Hidden Markov Model with specific inputs related to Price, Time, Volume , and Volatility. The model attempts to predict local minimums and maximums (reversals) on a daily and weekly basis... stay curious
Metals Copper idea (22/08/2022) Copper futures.
The rise of the metal depends on the 3.1315 support point to achieve the bullish movement, and we expect the metal to rise in the near term and also in the long term, it may rise from the current prices and the second wave has ended or the decline continues to the 61% level at prices of 3.3440 and the second wave ends there
Copper Futures (M6E1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance : 3.6500
Pivot: 3.5315
Support : 3.4115
Preferred Case: On the H4, with the price breaking the ascending trendline and ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 3.5315, which is in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection and 61.8% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 3.4115, where the 50% fibonacci retracement and swing low are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price could rise to the 1st resistance at 3.6500, where the pullback resistance is.
Fundamentals: The copper price fell as the market worries about demand in China surfaced due to weak economic data and a firmer dollar. Meanwhile, Chinese property developers sharply cut investment in July, while new construction starts suffered their biggest fall in nearly a decade.
Copper Futures (M6E1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance : 3.6500
Pivot: 3.5315
Support : 3.4115
Preferred Case: On the H4, with the price breaking the ascending trendline and ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 3.5315, which is in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection and 61.8% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 3.4115, where the 50% fibonacci retracement and swing low are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price could rise to the 1st resistance at 3.6500, where the pullback resistance is.
Fundamentals: The copper price fell as the market worries about demand in China surfaced due to weak economic data and a firmer dollar. Meanwhile, Chinese property developers sharply cut investment in July, while new construction starts suffered their biggest fall in nearly a decade.
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