Entering a long position in Gold at 2909Gold is at a key support level, and I’m expecting it to hold today. Going long on GC futures around the 2909 area.
QO1! trade ideas
MASSIVE Bull Run Pending for Gold!!!Been looking for this drop! Waiting for a great entry for a bullish swing. Price looks like it might have made lows right at a H4 Gap but there is a larger one lower that I want to wait and see if they go for. I'm just not interested in a Long until I see price sweep the recent lows first.
Tracking Crisis with This Ratio – US Markets vs GoldThese are the 3 major crisis over the last 25 years. The dot com, 08 and the recent 9% inflation crisis.
Before each crisis get into its full swing, I have observed there was a surge in gold.
In this tutorial, I will share:
1) Why a surge in gold before each crisis?
2) What are the key variables that we should be looking out for this year? and
3) I hope I don’t sound too ambitious in discussing how to time this move?
E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Ticker: NQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $5.00
Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Gold's Crossroads – Dip Before the $3K Breakout? ⚖️ Gold's Crossroads – Dip Before the $3K Breakout? 🤔📉
Gold has almost hit the $3,000 mark—but not quite. 🚀 While many are ultra-bullish, let’s take a step back and consider the potential for a pullback before any new highs.
Gold is expensive, and even my jeweler friend admits it’s becoming more of a store of value than a commodity for luxury. That brings us to a key question: Is a drop coming first?
🔄 Two Possible Scenarios:
1️⃣ Pullback First (More Likely) – Gold could drop toward $2,794, or even deeper to $2,575, where the all-time trendline support sits. A cooling-off period makes sense, especially after such an extended rally. 📉
2️⃣ Breakout to New Highs – If buying pressure holds, a clean push above $3K could send gold toward $3,294 - $3,600, and even EUROTLX:4K later in the cycle. 🚀
🔍 The Fort Knox Question 🤯
There’s growing speculation about the $400 billion in gold reserves at Fort Knox. If something unexpected is uncovered, could that fuel a major gold rally? Or will Bitcoin, the digital gold, start to steal some of its shine?
It’s a fascinating time for gold traders. While the long-term outlook remains bullish, a dip before liftoff seems like the logical play. Let’s stay sharp. ⚡📊
P.S. Gold has risen even with the USD remaining expensive and interest rates still high—which is not the norm. Could it be that we see gold detach from its historical correlations and trade in a completely new paradigm? 🤔
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Gold's Resilience: A Bounce Back from Key Support Demand ZoneGold has rallied off a key demand area of support as the US Dollar peaked and then retraced. This precious metal is currently navigating challenges stemming from forecasts regarding US interest rates and ongoing economic policies tied to the Trump administration.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the US economy is in "remarkably good" shape, which has bolstered the Dollar while putting downward pressure on Gold. However, analysis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that smart money remains positioned on the long side, suggesting that there is still potential for upward movement in Gold.
Despite its recent performance, Gold appears to be in a relatively oversold position, supported by favorable seasonal trends that could lead to a bullish outlook. The current demand area presents a crucial opportunity for Gold to retrace and gain momentum once again, making it an interesting point of observation for traders looking to capitalize on potential price recovery.
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XAUUSD Analysis & Projection This Week (Feb 24 2025-Feb 28 2025)Last week, XAUUSD reached a new All-Time High but got swept, as the weekly candle failed to close at its peak. On the H1 timeframe, the Order Block has been mitigated (refer to the attached chart).
For this week's setup, my bias is towards a retracement into the Order Block (not FVG) before a significant drop (DUMP). I anticipate a clearer price movement around the release of the New Home Sales (January) data.
GC1! "The Gold" Metal Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑💰🐱👤🐱🏍
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the GC1! "The Gold" Metal Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise to Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 2935.0 (swing Trade Basis) Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 2820.0 (or) Escape Before the Target
Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
GC1! "The Gold" Metal Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors.
💠 Fundamental Analysis
The GC1 contract is influenced by global economic trends, monetary policies, and commodity market fluctuations. Central banks' cautious approach to interest rates and inflation management impacts gold prices.
💠 Macroeconomic Analysis
GDP Growth Rate: Global economic growth slows down, with the US GDP growth rate at 3.3% in Q4.
Inflation Rate: Inflation trends show moderation, with the US inflation rate at 1.0% annualized.
Employment and Labor Market: The US job market remains solid, with 353,000 jobs added in January.
💠 COT Data Analysis
Institutional Traders: 55% long, 45% short.
Retail Traders: 52% short, 48% long.
Large Banks: 57% long, 43% short.
💠 Market Sentimental Analysis
Market Sentiment: 40% bullish, 60% bearish.
Trader Sentiment: 29% long, 71% short.
💠 Market Sentiment by Trader Type
- Institutional Traders: 60% bullish, 40% bearish
- Hedge Funds: 55% bearish, 45% bullish
- Retail Traders: 55% bullish, 45% bearish
💠 Positioning Data Analysis
Bullish Trend: 45% likely.
Bearish Trend: 55% likely.
💠 Overall Outlook
GC1 prices may fluctuate due to central banks' monetary policies, inflation trends, and geopolitical tensions. Investors are cautiously optimistic, with a focus on technology and innovation-driven sectors.
Key Factors Influencing GC1 Prices
Monetary Policy Adjustments: Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
Inflation Trends: Global inflation rates.
Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions and commodity market fluctuations.
Technology Sector Resilience: Growth potential in AI and semiconductor fields.
Cryptocurrency Market Volatility: Bitcoin's impact on traditional markets.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
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GOLD - WEEKLY SUMMARY 17.2-21.2 / FORECAST🏆 GOLD – 15th week of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks). A very mature cycle with a bearish setup on the daily chart. The new high on the February 11 pivot forecast has held for a week. Based on cycle timing, this pivot forecast may mark the top of the current base cycle. However, strong support remains at the October 28 extreme forecast level (2850-2830 on the current futures contract). Additional support comes from the broken double top at the retrograde Mercury level from November 25 (2780 on the current futures contract).
⚠️ Next pivot forecast: February 24. Next extreme forecast: March 3 – the beginning of the retrograde Venus period, which I mentioned in early December. I cautiously assume that March 3 may mark the start of a new base cycle for gold from one of the support levels mentioned above.
GOLD, is it possible time to sell? Hello everyone! There is a high likelihood that gold may decline from its current level. The 2800 mark is a historical high and a critical level. Will the bulls be able to break through it immediately?
From a long-term wave perspective, the price of gold may currently be in corrective wave 4, which is likely not yet complete, as the time targets have not been reached. The RSI on the daily chart is near the overbought zone and is trending downward, while volumes have been declining for four consecutive sessions. Additionally, according to the CFTC report, speculative long positions have reached the peak levels of October 2024, when gold prices dropped, leading to profit-taking.
Taking all this into account, I believe the bulls currently lack sufficient strength to continue the trend, and some cooling is needed.
From a wave analysis standpoint, a triangle formation is possible, followed by gold entering wave ((C)) with a target in the range of 2660-2640.
It is important to exercise caution. For a more confident entry into a position, it would be preferable to see a false breakout of the level, which has not occurred yet. This should be kept in mind.
micro gold(daily-4h-1h)future 21/02daily up
4h bulish consolidation
1h down
rely on daily up trend based on news and people psychology
1h demand is strong, move out, break out, one candle, mix session Tokyo and Sydney, good volume on profile, on moving 50 and trend 4h.
when price come to it only 4h trend Chang to down trend and its only bad sign of it, but till this point daily is up then we can rely on up trend of daily and for strength of 1h demand buy it.
for changing 4 h trend in this area enter with confirmation based on your style(put buy stop when price go 50 percent to zone or based price action and change of structure in 15 min).
Bullish MGC1! Trade Idea If you're looking for a bullish gold trade idea after a sweep of the lows into support, the concept you're working with would generally be a form of market manipulation where prices briefly dip below key support levels before reversing to the upside. Here's how you could approach it
Equity Markets Lagging the Precious Metals
Equity indices slipped today as they are looking to retest all time high levels for the ES and the NQ. Traders saw economic data released today including a higher than expected initial jobless claims number along with a lower than expected Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing number. As the equity markets slipped, the precious metals complex saw gains today with Gold, Silver, and Copper all in positive territory.
As the week wraps up, traders can look ahead to the existing home sales number along with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI tomorrow to add some volatility to the market. The CME Fed Watch Tool is currently indicating that rates will again be unchanged for the March meeting, and then a 43.6% chance of a rate cut of 25 basis points at the June meeting. These expectations can change as the year progresses based on different employment and inflation data and will help give a better indication of the strength of the equity and precious metal markets.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Tracking Crisis with Stocks/Gold RatioGold Surges with Three Major Crises
Over the past 25 years, we have witnessed three significant financial crises: the Dot-Com Bubble, the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the recent 9% inflation crisis. In each of these events, a distinct pattern emerged—gold surged before the crisis reached its full intensity.
Historically, gold's price has experienced notable gains before economic downturns:
• Dot-Com Bubble: +34% surge
• 2008 Financial Crisis: +89% surge
• Inflation Crisis (2022): +24% surge
Currently, gold has surged 83% from its trough in November 2022. Given this historical correlation, could we be on the verge of another financial crisis?
Why Are Central Banks Stockpiling Gold?
This current gold rally bears similarities to past surges but also has a crucial distinction. While demand for gold remains strong, this time around, central banks are leading the charge in purchasing gold at an unprecedented rate since 2022.
Gold serves a dual function:
1. Inflation Hedge – A safeguard against inflation.
2. Currency Hedge – Protection against currency devaluation.
Central banks' aggressive gold acquisitions suggest expectations of prolonged inflation and currency instability. As fiat currencies weaken, inflationary pressures mount, reinforcing gold’s attractiveness as a safe haven asset.
Fundamental Indicators Paint a Cautionary Picture
A deeper dive into key economic indicators suggests a challenging outlook. Here are some red flags:
• Treasury Bonds in a Downtrend – Indicating a loss of confidence in long-term debt
securities.
• Interest Rates Remain High – Despite inflation cooling from 9% to 3%, borrowing
costs remain significantly higher than pre-2022 levels. Elevated interest rates place
pressure on businesses and, eventually, stock prices.
• Inflation Remains Stubborn – The lowest recorded inflation since the peak was 2.4%,
but it has now ticked back up to 3%. With ongoing tariff escalations, inflation could
reignite.
These fundamental factors indicate that financial markets remain vulnerable to shocks, reinforcing the case for cautious positioning.
The Technical Outlook: A Bullish Trend Still Holds
Despite fundamental concerns, technical analysis suggests that the current AI-driven market rally, which began after the introduction of ChatGPT, remains intact. A strong uptrend line connecting all major troughs continues to act as a support level.
Timing the Bear with the Crisis
The bond market is already signaling distress. If equity markets break below this well-established uptrend line, my strategy will shift dramatically. Instead of looking for buying opportunities on dips, I will pivot to selling on strengths, anticipating a market downturn.
My Trading Strategy: Still Buying on Dips
I have provided a daily chart with updated trendlines, marking key support and resistance levels. My trading approach will be guided by these levels to manage risk effectively.
Preferred Instruments: Outright futures and call options.
Market Outlook: Cautiously bullish.
While economic conditions warrant vigilance, technical indicators suggest that the bullish trend remains intact—until proven otherwise. Happy trading!
Please see the following disclaimer and information that you may find useful:
E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Ticker: NQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $5.00
Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• My mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
Trading competition: www.tradingview.com
Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
New update for Gold Futures.**Gold Futures: A Comprehensive Update**
Hey everyone! It's been a while since my last post, and there's been a lot happening in the gold market. Let's take a closer look at the current state of gold futures and what's driving the market right now.
**Price Trends**
Gold prices have been trading around **$2,900** per ounce, struggling to break above this level. The price has been relatively stable, but there's a lot of speculation about where it might head next.
**Market Drivers**
Several factors are influencing gold prices at the moment:
**US-Russia Talks**
The ongoing discussions between the US and Russia regarding the war in Ukraine are causing some uncertainty. Any significant developments could impact gold prices as investors look for safe-haven assets.
**Federal Reserve Policies**
Comments from Fed officials about inflation and interest rates are also affecting the market. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman mentioned that rising asset prices may have hampered progress on inflation. This kind of news can make investors nervous and drive them towards gold.
**US Dollar Strength**
The US Dollar has been rebounding, which typically puts downward pressure on gold prices. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can dampen demand.
**Technical Analysis**
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around **68**, suggesting a lack of fresh impetus. If sellers enter the market, the price could test the February low of **$2,864**. This level is crucial as a break below it could lead to further downside.
**Upcoming Events**
There are a few key events to keep an eye on:
**Fed Minutes**
The release of the Fed’s January meeting minutes could provide insights into future policy directions. This will be closely watched by market participants.
**US Economic Data**
Reports like Non-Farm Payroll and Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be key indicators to watch. These reports can give us a better understanding of the US economy and influence Fed policy decisions.
**Claims About Trump and Musk Auditing Fort Knox Gold Reserves**
Donald Trump and Elon Musk have indeed raised concerns about the gold reserves at Fort Knox. Trump has publicly stated that he wants to ensure the gold is still there, and Musk has echoed these sentiments on social media. However, it's important to note that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has confirmed that the gold reserves are audited annually and that all the gold is present and accounted for.
**Gold Bar with Silver Allegations**
There have been rumors circulating online about a gold bar with silver found at Fort Knox, but there is no verified evidence to support this claim. The U.S. Mint and other official sources have not reported any such discovery. It's likely that this is just another conspiracy theory without any factual basis.
**Conclusion**
While it's always good to question and seek transparency, the claims about Trump and Musk auditing Fort Knox and finding a gold bar with silver seem to lack credible evidence. The official stance is that the gold reserves are well-documented and secure.
GOLD Set to make new Highs before the week ClosesI was looking for a bigger pullback but we didnt get it. The way price is moving and based on the FOMC news I think the pull back is over and price is ready to continue bullish. We just came into the killzone and things look like they are lining up. Trailing stop along the way.
gold futur(daily-4h-1h)daily is up
4 hours and 1 hour is up but in correction
gold comes down to strong 1h demand
in this area trend of daikly and 4 hour and 1 hour is still intact
due to the power of daily uptrend and strong of demand zone in one our that can break previous swing and excellent move out buy with target 1to 2 is logical
