Gold Bias 11/26/2024
Gold will go down after news, price will manipulate upwards then accumulate and then take out buy side liquidity then go short right as this occurs. Thanks ICT
QO1! trade ideas
Gold plunges as Trump 'trumps' seasonalsLast week I revealed in a video of my scepticism gold would tracks its seasonality into December , given its outperformance earlier in the year and the hunch that Trump 2.0 would likely to overshadow typical flows. And Trump's US Treasury Secretary cabinet pick has done just that.
Monday's price action should serve as a stark reminder that seasonality has taken a back seat with its prominent bearish engulfing day and most bearish candle in four years. And there could be further losses ahead.
The daily chart shows the drop from its all-time high (ATH) came in three waves, which suggests it is the beginning of a larger ABC retracement. Assuming Monday's engulfing candle was the end of wave B, a 100% projection (wave equality) could see gold fall to ~2460.
note that the daily low found support around a high-volume node (HVN) and weekly S1 pivot point. A bullish divergence is also forming on the 1-hour RSI (2) to suggest a bounce.
Bears could seek to fade into retracement within Monday's range to try and increase the reward to risk ratio.
MS
2024-11-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - Neutral. In my weekly outlook I gave the pullback target 2650 and we got 2616. 2600 is the absolut lowest this should go or bulls are in trouble. Best would be to stay above 2620 and then I expect Tuesday or Wednesday another leg up. My target was 2866 but the pullback was much deeper than expected so my upper target is also coming down some. 2800 is still on the table. Will only think about getting bearish below 2540.
comment : Will make this quick today. Two paths I think are valid. First one is from my weekly outlook where today was the B from the ABC. C could lead to 2800+. Alternativ is continuation of this triangle for some time. What I don’t see happening is bears breaking below 2500 and continuing down. Bulls would do best to keep this above 2600 and reverse latest from there. Selling is certainly strong enough again to expect more of it.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2550 - 2800
bull case: Bulls see this as a 50% retracement of the recent climactic buying from last week. If they allow it to retest 2580 or lower, odds rise that we will continue sideways instead of higher above 2730. 2630 is the worst place to trade, given the current structure. So look for longs only on very strong momentum and a second buy signal or near 2560 again.
Invalidation is below 2540.
bear case : Bears are printing much better bear bars than bulls do bull bars and on increased volume at that. They want a to retest 2540 and maybe 2500. If they can get it, I doubt many bulls would continue to expect 2800 or even higher prices. Interesting day tomorrow to see where we will go from here.
Invalidation is above 2720.
short term: Neutral. 50% retracement of recent bull leg is 2630, so don’t trade around that price.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: Likely to close 2024 above 2800 but I do think the recent selling was the first hint that we will transition into a trading range soon.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling anywhere was good.
Gold Set to Rally: Key Insights and Price Levels for Next WeekRecent Performance: Gold has shown remarkable resilience recently as it
navigates geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning the Russia-Ukraine
conflict. Despite experiencing a slight downward adjustment of approximately
1.14% this month, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains intact. It has
outperformed silver, indicating strong demand even in the face of market
volatility and sell-offs. Concerns regarding gold miners' performance have
also emerged, but the overall bullish trend persists amid rising fears of
economic slowdown and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
- Key Insights: Investors should closely watch gold as it continues to reflect a
robust safe-haven sentiment. The interplay of geopolitical risks and the
outlook for central bank policies are critical in shaping gold's trajectory.
Analysts are increasingly optimistic about gold's potential to reach the
$3,000 mark, positioning it as a key asset in today's volatile financial
landscape. Maintaining focus on support levels around $2,550-$2,580 will be
essential for identifying buying opportunities.
- Expert Analysis: Market sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, with experts
projecting upward movement for gold in the coming months, primarily driven
by heightened geopolitical tensions and increasing demand for hedging
against economic instability. Potential volatility from a strengthening U.S.
dollar looms, but it is expected that uplifts in geopolitical risk will
drive gold’s intrinsic value higher. Analyst projections suggest that if
gold breaches immediate resistance levels near $2,800-$2,900, it could mark
the beginning of a stronger rally.
- Sentiment Analysis: Current sentiment: 70.0 Last week: 0 Change: 70.0 Total
mentions: 196
- Price Targets: Next week targets: T1: $2,800 T2: $2,900 Stop levels: S1:
$2,580 S2: $2,550
- News Impact: Recent escalations in Ukraine’s military actions have contributed
to heightened volatility in the market, influencing not just gold prices but
also equity markets. Positive projections from financial institutions like
Goldman Sachs indicate cautious optimism regarding market growth.
Additionally, expected central bank interest rate cuts could further elevate
gold’s appeal, reinforcing its status as a key asset amid economic
uncertainty. Investors should remain alert as geopolitical developments
unfold, impacting overall market dynamics.
Timeframes and Correlations in Multi-Asset Markets1. Introduction
Understanding correlations across timeframes is essential for traders and investors managing diverse portfolios. Correlations measure how closely the price movements of two assets align, revealing valuable insights into market relationships. However, these relationships often vary based on the timeframe analyzed, with daily, weekly, and monthly perspectives capturing unique dynamics.
This article delves into how correlations evolve across timeframes, explores their underlying drivers, and examines real-world examples involving multi-asset instruments such as equities, bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. By focusing on these key timeframes, traders can identify meaningful trends, manage risks, and make better-informed decisions.
2. Timeframe Aggregation Effect
Correlations vary significantly depending on the aggregation level of data:
Daily Timeframe: Reflects short-term price movements dominated by noise and intraday volatility. Daily correlations often show weaker relationships as asset prices react to idiosyncratic or local factors.
Weekly Timeframe: Aggregates daily movements, smoothing out noise and capturing medium-term relationships. Correlations tend to increase as patterns emerge over several days.
Monthly Timeframe: Represents long-term trends influenced by macroeconomic factors, smoothing out daily and weekly fluctuations. At this level, correlations reflect systemic relationships driven by broader forces like interest rates, inflation, or global risk sentiment.
Example: The correlation between ES (S&P 500 Futures) and BTC (Bitcoin Futures) may appear weak on a daily timeframe due to high BTC volatility. However, their monthly correlation might strengthen, aligning during broader risk-on periods fueled by Federal Reserve easing cycles.
3. Smoothing of Volatility Across Timeframes
Shorter timeframes tend to exhibit lower correlations due to the dominance of short-term volatility and market noise. These random fluctuations often obscure deeper, more structural relationships. As the timeframe extends, volatility smooths out, revealing clearer correlations between assets.
Example:
ZN (10-Year Treasuries) and GC (Gold Futures) exhibit a weaker correlation on a daily basis because they react differently to intraday events. However, over monthly timeframes, their correlation strengthens due to shared drivers like inflation expectations and central bank policies.
By aggregating data over weeks or months, traders can focus on meaningful relationships rather than being misled by short-term market randomness.
4. Market Dynamics at Different Frequencies
Market drivers vary depending on the asset type and the timeframe analyzed. While short-term correlations often reflect immediate market reactions, longer-term correlations align with broader economic forces:
Equities (ES - S&P 500 Futures): Correlations with other assets are driven by growth expectations, earnings reports, and investor sentiment. These factors fluctuate daily but align more strongly with macroeconomic trends over longer timeframes.
Cryptocurrencies (BTC - Bitcoin Futures): Highly speculative and volatile in the short term, BTC exhibits weak daily correlations with traditional assets. However, its monthly correlations can strengthen with risk-on/risk-off sentiment, particularly in liquidity-driven environments.
Safe-Havens (ZN - Treasuries and GC - Gold Futures): On daily timeframes, these assets may respond differently to specific events. Over weeks or months, correlations align more closely due to shared reactions to systemic risk factors like interest rates or geopolitical tensions.
Example: During periods of market stress, ZN and GC may show stronger weekly or monthly correlations as investors seek safe-haven assets. Conversely, daily correlations might be weak as each asset responds to its unique set of triggers.
5. Case Studies
To illustrate the impact of timeframes on correlations, let’s analyze a few key asset relationships:
o BTC (Bitcoin Futures) and ES (S&P 500 Futures):
Daily: The correlation is typically weak (around 0.28) due to BTC’s high volatility and idiosyncratic behavior.
Weekly/Monthly: During periods of broad market optimism, BTC and ES may align more closely (0.41), reflecting shared exposure to investor risk appetite.
o ZN (10-Year Treasuries) and GC (Gold Futures):
Daily: These assets often show weak or moderate correlation (around 0.39), depending on intraday drivers.
Weekly/Monthly: An improved correlation (0.41) emerges due to their mutual role as hedges against inflation and monetary uncertainty.
o 6J (Japanese Yen Futures) and ZN (10-Year Treasuries):
Daily: Correlation moderate (around 0.53).
Weekly/Monthly: Correlation strengthens (0.74) as both assets reflect broader safe-haven sentiment, particularly during periods of global economic uncertainty.
These case studies demonstrate how timeframe selection impacts the interpretation of correlations and highlights the importance of analyzing relationships within the appropriate context.
6. Conclusion
Correlations are not static; they evolve based on the timeframe and underlying market drivers. Short-term correlations often reflect noise and idiosyncratic volatility, while longer-term correlations align with structural trends and macroeconomic factors. By understanding how correlations change across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes, traders can identify meaningful relationships and build more resilient strategies.
The aggregation of timeframes also reveals diversification opportunities and risk factors that may not be apparent in shorter-term analyses. With this knowledge, market participants can better align their portfolios with prevailing market conditions, adapting their strategies to maximize performance and mitigate risk.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
#202447 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold futures: I was bullish last Sunday and boi did that pay but now is not the time to buy into this climax. Market is way overdue for a pullback but I would not try to pick the top here. Only longs for me on this but only after we have seen some sideways to down movement. Buying is strong enough to expect a second leg up, which could bring us to 2900. I do think it is highly likely that we close this year above 2800.
Quote from last week:
comment: Market took 48 days to gain the 10% we now lost in 14. This selling is climactic and thus unsustainable. We will soon see a bigger bounce, if not a complete reversal to 2800 again. On the daily chart it looks nasty but on the weekly chart tis but a scratch. Bears closed all but one open bull gap and technically just retested the breakout price for the previous bull leg. This selling is strong enough to seriously doubt much higher prices than 2800. What I do expect is some bounce and more sideways movement between 2600-2800 before we could test lower prices (2300-2400) next year. For now it’s too early to go long, since market has not found a credible bottom yet but since market has not traded much below the weekly 20ema for a year. Swing longs with stop 2480ish are very reasonable.
comment: Market overdid it a bit with the selling and since Monday there are no bears to be found. Measured move up gives us 2866 and if we reach that, 2900 is probably given. You can’t think bearish at all until we reach 2800 again. 5 very strong bull bars closing at the highs. Can’t get any stronger for the bulls. Right now we went from overbought to oversold to overbought. Some pullback is expected and it will likely be a great buying opportunity.
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels: 2500 - 2900
bull case: Can you buy the highs at 2700 and hope for a 6th consecutive bullish day? I would not. Only interested in buying this on pullbacks but I due think it’s bullish and nothing else. Will likely close 2024 above 2800 if not 2900. Next target for the bulls is 2750, followed by 2800. Dip can go as low as 2650 but below I would get more cautious.
Invalidation is below 2650.
bear case: Bears gave up on Monday. No argument for them at all here and I won’t make much up. Can only see more selling pressure coming back around 2800. I expect any pullback to be bought.
Invalidation is above 2750.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral until bulls claim 2630 again. 2540 just has to hold or if we spike down to 2500 we would have to see huge buying or this will flush down more. Bears are in full control until market trades above the 4h ema again.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2570 and now we are at 2712. Perfect. Hope you made some or at least did not short the lows.
short term: Max bullish if we stay above 2650. 2800 is my expectation and 2900 possible.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: Likely to close 2024 above 2800 but I do think the recent selling was the first hint that we will transition into a trading range soon.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added two legged correction (ABC)
HTF Daily/4Hr Key Levels on we could see Mitigated this week...?COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life: -Muhammad Ali
Hope all is well. Here in this short video I have displayed my insight or outlook so be it on GOLD's HTF's Daily/4HR. I have learned to remove much of the distraction off the charts and solely focus on my Daily/4Hr Key levels and wait for Mitigation Alerts.... This weekend I focused solely on better understanding HTF External Structure vs Sub structure.... From the Daily/4Hr TF perspective my question of the Day is, 'Who has the stronger hand?' this will determine where price is headed and give me my best directional bias for the day as an intraday trader. Being that my execution TF is based off the 5m.
From Basic Skill to Professional Dominance is where were headed...!! -500KTrey🏁
Micro Gold Futures
The price of Micro Gold Futures has generally been increasing since the start of 2024, but there have been some pullbacks. Recently, the price recovered after a sharp pullback and is moving towards resistance at previous high prices.
Support is around $2,600, which aligns with the lower Bollinger Band and a previous consolidation zone.
Resistance is near $2,800, which aligns with the upper Bollinger Band and prior highs.
Recent candlestick patterns are bullish and suggest a recovery. This is further supported by increasing momentum.
There isn't a clear reversal pattern yet, but you should watch for resistance near $2,800.
If the price goes over $2,800 with strong volume, the uptrend may continue.
If the price is rejected or a reversal pattern forms near $2,800, the price may pull back towards the moving average or lower Bollinger Band.
Weekly Forex Forecast Nov. 25-28th: GOLD Resumes Bullish Trend.After three bearish Weekly candles, safehaven seekers pushed the prices past the previous weekly high with a strong close. Will this continue next week? I suspect it will. The Monthly and Weekly TFs show bullishness, and indicate the bearishness was short term.
That said, I am prepared to sell if the entry function presents itself at the current -FVG price is contacting. This price level is in the premium of the trading range, making it a great area to look for a short. But it is counter-trend, so a reasonable profit target is in order.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Commodities: Safeguarding Your Wealth in Uncertain TimesInvesting in Commodities: A Comprehensive Guide
In the quest for a balanced investment portfolio, commodities emerge as a crucial component, contributing to diversification and risk management. Commodities refer to raw materials or primary agricultural products traded globally, ranging from oil and gold to corn and wheat. Their unique characteristics offer investors opportunities to safeguard their assets and potentially profit during economic fluctuations, making them an essential element in mitigating risks associated with stock and bond markets.
At their core, commodities are fundamental materials employed in the production of goods and services, acting as a foundation for the global economy. These assets can be traded, bought, or sold, with their market value primarily driven by supply and demand dynamics. Unlike equities or fixed-income instruments, which represent ownership stakes or debt commitments, commodities are tangible resources that investors can physically possess or leverage for financial gain.
The primary allure of commodities lies in their potential to hedge against inflation and enhance portfolio diversification. Their often independent price movements compared to traditional asset classes, like stocks and bonds, make them valuable during times of economic uncertainty. For instance, when inflation rises, the prices of commodities frequently increase, preserving investor purchasing power and protecting against currency devaluation.
Commodities can be broadly classified into two categories:
- Hard Commodities: This group includes energy resources such as oil and natural gas, as well as metals like gold, silver, and platinum.
- Soft Commodities: These encompass agricultural products like wheat, corn, and coffee, along with livestock such as cattle and hogs.
By diversifying investments across both categories, investors can tap into various market trends and opportunities, whether it’s responding to geopolitical events affecting oil prices or poor harvests leading to increases in agricultural commodity costs.
Investing in commodities can take several forms, each with distinct characteristics and associated risks. Here are the main avenues available to investors:
- Direct Purchase
Buying physical commodities—like gold bars or silver coins—allows investors to own tangible assets. This method provides a straightforward hedge against inflation but comes with challenges in terms of storage and security, particularly for significant investments.
- Futures Contracts
Futures contracts are agreements to buy or sell a specified quantity of a commodity at a predetermined price on a future date. While futures trading can yield high returns due to leverage, it also poses substantial risks, requiring a thorough understanding of market dynamics and careful management.
- Commodity ETFs
Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) that track the prices of individual commodities or a basket of them offer a more passive investment option. These funds provide liquidity and diversification without the need for physical ownership or the complexities of futures trading.
- Commodity Stocks
Rather than investing directly in commodities, one can consider buying shares of companies engaged in the production of commodities, such as mining firms or oil companies. This strategy allows investors to benefit indirectly from commodity price movements while also receiving dividends.
- Contracts for Difference (CFDs)
CFDs are agreements that enable investors to speculate on commodity price movements without owning the underlying assets. This trading method is well-suited for experienced investors looking to capitalize on short-term market fluctuations but comes with amplified risks due to leverage.
Gold Futures Monthly Chart from 1975
- Hedge Against Inflation
Commodities are often viewed as a safe haven during inflationary periods. As general prices rise, so too do commodity values, making them an effective strategy for preserving purchasing power.
- Portfolio Diversification
Incorporating commodities into an investment strategy can enhance diversification. They generally exhibit low or negative correlations with stocks and bonds, helping to cushion portfolios against market downturns.
- Cyclical Performance
Commodities typically respond to economic cycles, performing well during times of growth when demand increases. Conversely, they may benefit from investor behavior during market instability, particularly in the case of precious metals.
- Supply and Demand Insights
Investors can leverage the fundamental principles of supply and demand to identify profitable investment opportunities. For instance, seasonal changes or geopolitical disruptions may create market imbalances affecting commodity prices.
While the potential rewards of commodity investing are considerable, the associated risks warrant careful consideration:
- Price Volatility
Commodity markets can be highly volatile. Investors may face sharp price swings, influenced by speculation, macroeconomic trends, or unexpected changes in supply and demand, which can lead to significant financial losses.
- Geopolitical Instability
Conflicts and political events can disrupt commodity supply chains, spurring unexpected price changes. For example, sanctions on oil-exporting countries can impact global supply and drive up prices.
- Environmental Changes
Natural events, including droughts and extreme weather, significantly impact agricultural commodities, while environmental regulations can affect energy-related assets. These factors introduce unpredictability and risk into commodity investments.
Silver Futures Monthly Chart from 1975
Interested in exploring commodity investments? Here’s a step-by-step guide to help navigate this investment landscape:
- Evaluate Your Risk Appetite
Before you commence commodity trading, assess your risk tolerance. If you prefer stable investments, consider allocating funds to less volatile commodities or diversified commodity ETFs. Conversely, if you’re open to high-risk scenarios, explore potential opportunities in more volatile markets.
- Select the Right Commodities
Research and identify commodities that align with your financial goals. For instance, gold may serve as a hedge against inflation, while industrial metals may thrive during economic growth phases.
- Determine Your Investment Method
Choose from various investment methods, whether direct purchases, futures, ETFs, stocks, or CFDs. Each approach carries its risk/reward profile, so it’s paramount to select one that suits your investment strategy.
Cocoa Futures Monthly Chart from 1980
Looking ahead to 2024 and beyond, several trends will shape the landscape of commodity investing:
- Transition to Green Energy
The ongoing shift toward renewable energy is poised to affect traditional fossil fuels, especially oil. As nations aim to reduce carbon footprints, the demand for oil may taper, albeit gradually, while renewable energy commodities like lithium and cobalt gain momentum.
- Emerging Markets Demand
Countries in rapid industrialization, particularly in Asia, are expected to drive demand for industrial metals. Investors should keep a close watch on these markets as they become increasingly vital players in the global commodity landscape.
- Rising Interest in Renewable Commodities
As the world gravitates toward sustainable practices, the demand for renewable commodities essential for electric vehicles and clean energy technologies is anticipated to surge. This shift presents exciting investment opportunities aligned with the growing push for decarbonization.
Copper Futures Monthly Chart from 1988
In conclusion, investing in commodities presents both opportunities and challenges. For those looking to diversify their portfolios and hedge against inflation, commodities can be an attractive option. However, the inherent volatility and unique risks make it crucial for investors to carefully consider their financial objectives and risk tolerance.
By staying informed about market trends, employing sound strategies, and understanding the dynamics of both supply and demand, investors can navigate the complex world of commodities to potentially achieve long-term success. Embracing this asset class effectively entails a proactive approach, ensuring alignment with broader investment goals in an ever-evolving financial landscape.
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long on golf
Trade Type: Long (Buy)
Market: MGC1
Timeframe: 15 min
Setup:
I am entering a long position based on a bullish pin bar pattern formed
Entry:
Trade Reasoning: This trade is based on a confluence of factors that suggest a potential bullish trend. The price is finding support near a key level, the RSI shows no overbought conditions, and the MACD shows an increasing bullish momentum. We are also approaching a breakout of a range, making this a good risk-to-reward opportunity.
2024-11-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - Bullish target was met with 2650 and now it’s big decision time. Bear trend line and daily 20ema was hit. By Friday we will know which way market wants to go. Expecting sideways to down tomorrow but everything below 2600 would surprise me.
comment : Very bullish week so far to potentially big resistance. My preferred path is a two legged correction and we are in the A of it. Market has to pull back soon but if bulls get above 2660, we will see 2700 soon. Last thing I want to do this week is looking for shorts in this.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2620 - 2700
bull case: Bulls are in control again. They now only need a strong close above the daily ema to make the last bears run for the exits. Can they get it before a pullback? I doubt that. Not much more magic to it. Big bull trend is still valid but the peak euphoria is over and we will likely see more bearish legs in between since bears made big money previous 2 weeks.
Invalidation is below 2600.
bear case: Bears who sold late are trapped, they need a pullback to get out of their position. They are at 3 very important prices. Breakout retest is around 2650-2660, daily ema is here and the 50% retracement is at 2672. If these are not good enough for the market to pull back to 2600 or lower, nothing will.
Invalidation is above 2670.
short term : Neutral. Expecting a pullback and then another big rally to at least 2750.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-17: Tough call for the rest of the year. If I had to guess I’d say that we rally to 2800 again before year end, just so we can sell off beginning of 2024 but it’s pure guesswork as of now.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying 2625, which market tried for 3 hours to close a 15m bar below and could not. Buying it was good for 350 ticks.
GOLD & SILVER Attempt To Break Higher - Moving Into EEP #3Gold and Silver attempt to break upward, moving away from the larger EPP Phase #2 (consolidation/FLAGGING) setup.
If my research is correct, we'll see a very strong rally setting up in Gold/Silver over the next 2-4+ hours - likely see GOLD rallying up to $2720+ and SILVER rallying up to $32.50-$33.
Get ready. This could be a very strong rally phase targeting new all-time highs over the next 15+ days.
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Is it possible for gold prices to reach $5000?Is it possible for gold prices to reach $5000?
Gold reached $2,600 an ounce on Monday, recovering after a week of record declines in 2021 as the U.S. dollar stabilized. The latest U.S. data show that retail sales rose more than expected in October, revealing the strength of the economy.
Last week, comments by some Federal Reserve officials added uncertainty about possible rate cuts and their timing. At the moment, markets estimate about a 65 percent probability of a 25 percent rate cut in December.
Investors now focus on upcoming statements by other Fed policymakers during this week, hoping to get clearer indications of the direction of interest rates in the United States in the coming months.
After the Republican candidate's victory in the presidential election, investors rushed to Wall Street to put their money in various assets, such as stocks (SP500) and Bitcoin (BTC-USD), which has soared to an impressive 90,000.
However, there seems to have been one asset that did not benefit from this celebration: gold (XAUUSD). The price of spot gold (XAUUSD) fell by 6.44 percent. This decrease can be attributed to the fact that gold-usually considered a safe haven asset-is not particularly attractive when Trump's tax cut and tariff policies promise to stimulate the Wall Street stock market.
Currently, the market seems unconcerned about U.S. credit risk. If excessive fiscal deficits or loss of independence were a real
Gold prices have fallen significantly recently, but we expect a stop to this trend soon. Our target of $2850 in the short term remains valid.
There are several options for investing in gold. One can opt for a euro ETF to protect against currency risk or choose a dollar ETF. Another interesting alternative is to buy a share in a gold mining company.
One of the most interesting sectors is gold mining, particularly NEWMONT(NEM). Currently, Newmont's value is significantly underestimated at $45 per share, considering the scenario of a significant increase in the price of gold by 2025. With its vast gold reserves, low production costs, solid balance sheet, and high dividend yield, we believe the current price is an excellent entry point for investors.
Based on the company's historically low P/E ratio, we suggest that there may be a 50 percent discount to its potential long-term value, with a price target between $90-100 per share over the next 18-24 months.
The recent election has only confirmed my concerns about a dramatic increase in inflation rates next year. This will put a strain on foreign investors, international central banks, hedge funds and other large investors who will be looking for safe hedging.
In addition, as demand for and supply of gold (and also silver and platinum) grows and dwindles, the precious metal will be increasingly in demand as a “store of value” and “safe currency,” likely driving prices well above $3,000 an ounce in 2024.
During Trump's first term, which ran from January 2017 to January 2021, investors who owned gold and Newmont stocks reaped significant benefits.
With tax cuts, the Fed's growth in money printing, and the adoption of trade tariffs, the perfect combination to encourage safe gold-related investments has repeated itself. And this scenario could well repeat itself in the future.
At the geopolitical level, current tensions in the Middle East and the escalating conflict between Ukraine and Russia could lead to an increase in safe-haven assets, providing further support for the gold price. In addition, with the continued risk of conflict between Taiwan and China, gold prices could exceed $4,000.
Profit Like a Pro: Leveraging Wyckoff Market Phases for Gold Unlock the secrets of successful gold trading by understanding Wyckoff Market Phases. Learn how to identify Markup and Markdown phases, analyze volume trends, and use moving averages to time your trades like a pro. Perfect for traders aiming to optimize entries and exits in the gold market!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-19 : Top Resistance PatternToday's Pattern plays into the Anomaly Event I believe will continue to play out over the next 15+ trading days.
Today's Top Resistance pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will move higher, attempting to find a peak, then roll downward into a decidedly bearish type fo trend.
My analysis continues to suggest a price Anomaly event is likely. I believe this event could be related to a financial or hard-asset type of devaluation event (a mini-crisis).
As of right now, we need to see how today plays out related to price trends. I would be cautious of a rollover to the downside throughout trading today for the SPY/QQQ.
Gold & Silver already moving into a very strong #3 rally phase - attempting to find the new consolidation range (forming the #3 of the EPP pattern).
Bitcoin has moved into a moderate bullish trend - but could still roll downward very strongly. Stay very cautious of this moderate upward trend until we get a more confirmed breakaway above the Ultimate High.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
