[Daily Bias] Gold - Wed 08282024 - Continue RallyThere's a high likelihood of a continued rally today if the HVN and VAH levels hold. However, if they don't, the price may remain within the previous value area and move sideways
QO1! trade ideas
Mcx Gold currently at risk on fallMcx Gold currently at risk on fall,as resistance appears here on top.which form a double top n now market may react it as fall.
Overall if market breaks this resistance ,it may go way beyond above 73000-74000+
Or else below Resistance (72200-72600),market will fall towards 70000.
GOLD - Rockin' Higher (MACRO BULLISH!!!!)From a macro perspective, the bullish trend has just been confirmed. With the current worldwide uncertainty regarding monetary policies, the wars going on and the political conflicts people tend to swift towards safe havens like gold since their store of value does not deteriorate in an economic crisis, it's always on demand and easily convertible. History doesn’t repeat itself but it certainly rhymes.
We have two active Time at Mode weekly bullish trends.
First trend expires mid September with the highest target of $2,900.
Second trend expires in November with the highest target of $3,100.
Combining both short and longer term trends, we could easily expect price continuation toward $3,000's by the end of the year.
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Bulls bought the first pullback and I expect bears to try again. Market went sideways which shows strength by the bulls to keep it above 2500. Next week will be important because so far the highest monthly close was 2472 and a monthly close above 2500 would confirm the breakout again. Bears need consecutive bear bars below 2500 and bulls a daily close above 2550. Neutral going into next week.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls got a new ath but the highest monthly close so far was 2473 and there is no reason to expect a huge breakout above 2550 with follow through. If it happens, hopp along but odds favor the bears for another reversal like so many times in the last 4 months. No matter how you interpret the patterns on the chart, all favor a reversal and betting on a breakout after 4 months of trading range price action is a losing strategy in the long run. I am neutral and wait for bears to show strength but will join the bulls on a strong breakout above 2550.
comment : Did we learn anything from a sideways week? We have a bullish pattern and a technical textbook pullback a bit above the ema. Bulls bought it and that is bullish. But only a break above 2570 is confirmation. Resistance is always that until it breaks, no matter how strong you think the trend is/looks/feels and this trend inside a 5 month trading range is not strong so far. Bulls are trying the breakout and the monthly close will be the most important for them. If they manage their first close above 2500, it would be a confirmation and buy signal going into September. What could be a potential target above? Since the trading range was mostly between 2300 - 2500ish, we can do a measured move up and that would bring us to the ballpark around 2700.
current market cycle: trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months —unchanged
key levels: 2400 - 2550
bull case: Bulls raised their odds of this breakout being real last week. Next week is their do or die moment for this. It’s either break above 2550 and get a daily close above or fail again and trade back down to the lower bull wedge or even 2300. I do think 2540-2570 is a dead zone for trading long. If we get near 2520-2530 I consider buying but not above. Odds currently favor the bulls slightly.
Invalidation is below 2500.
bear case: Nothing changed for the bears. Either stop the bulls below 2570 or give up for 2600 and potentially 2700 over the next weeks. Bears need a 1h close below 2500 badly. That’s it. If you are short Gold right now, don’t come to me hoping for bear porn. I’m long past that phase in Gold. Do I still think this is overvalued and can crash below 2000 again? Bet. Will this save your underwater shorts? Hell naw. Get out now or latest at 2571.
Invalidation is above 2571.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral until bears come around or strong break above 2550. If bears build good selling pressure, I want a retest of 2500 first and lower i look for 2470.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2537 and now we are at 2546. Bulls got above 2550 but big rejections only. Neutral outlook was perfect since we closed 9 points above last week.
short term: Exactly the same as last week. Bears had a pullback and bulls bought it. Inherently bullish but only if bulls can break above 2570.
Neutral until bears come around or strong break above 2570. If bears build good selling pressure, I want a retest of 2500 first and lower i look for 2470.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Added bull wedge trend line and measured move target #1.
Wyckoff VSA/SMI Result - Accumulation Stages 3 and 4 CompleteIn this short short follow up video produced by Author of "Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money", Gavin Holmes, we follow on from yesterdays video of Gold demonstrating how Smart Money accumulate an instrument based on Supply and Demand, Cause and Effect and Effort Vs Result. We see accumulation phases 1,2,3, and 4 completed with 5 on its way.
Smart Money Indicator confirms all the Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis set ups for long positions.
Soybean oil gold8. 23.24 it's very early in the morning so I'm going to make this as short as I can so I can go back to bed which is why I'm writing this very large sentence because you need to write enough stuff or this won't upload. the soybean oil is still a long trade even though it corrected 50% it looks like it's going to go higher and in the video I show you on the daily chart where it really has to go before you see an acceleration higher.... but it's a decent trade and just keep your stop below the bottom and give the market some time to move higher at the very worst if he gets stopped out it's a small loss.... but generally with patterns like this you don't want to drag your stop higher because they'll just take you out of noise and then you lose the opportunity. gold could have been a very profitable trade..... actually a number of Trades using a 4-hour chart and following how the market moves. I think the necessary psychology to look at patterns like this and to make relatively short but profitable trades is that you can't be committed to just one side of the market or the other. The market trades from buyers to sellers and sellers to buyers. It's easy to get trapped in your trades because you think you want to be a buyer and then your brain basically reduces the . when you sellers to adversaries because you just don't want to run into sellers if you're long.
Strategic Moves by Institutional Buyers Signal Bullish ProspectsGold commenced 2024 on a strong footing, exhibiting significant upward momentum during the first quarter. The accumulation phase initiated by institutional buyers stretched from January to mid-February, beginning at the S3 support level of $2,075 per troy ounce. The upward movement propelled gold prices to the R5 resistance level of $2,503 per ounce by the second week of April, marking the onset of the second quarter. This peak prompted profit-taking, stabilizing the price within a range between $2,365 and $2,503 per ounce.
Throughout this period, it appears that institutional buyers were actively building positions, likely in anticipation of driving prices higher. This strategic positioning is evident from the price consolidation between the R3 and R4 resistance levels for nearly five weeks during the third quarter. The persistence of prices within this range underlines a robust buying interest.
A critical breakout occurred when prices surpassed the R4 level at $2,503, which had previously acted as a formidable resistance point for several months. This breakout is a strong indication of continued dominance by institutional buyers in the gold market. Currently, with prices holding above the R4 level, the market is poised to target the R5 level at $2,605 for the third quarter, with potential for further ascension in Q4 of 2024.
Given these dynamics, traders are advised to capitalize on any pullbacks towards the R4 level, as these dips present favorable buying opportunities within a bullish gold market framework.
2024-08-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - Bears created a pullback but could not even touch 2500. It’s a little less bullish as of now because the bull trend line broke but market is still above 2500 and the daily 20ema so odds favor another the bulls. If bears create follow through below 2500, I turn bearish for 2450 or lower.
comment: Neutral again at 2520 because we are right above the bull trend line from early August and near 2500, which is huge support for now. Odds favor the bulls to test the upper bear trend line around 2540 again. If bears manage to go into the weekend below 2500, this bull leg is most likely over again and we will test back to 2450 or lower.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2500 - 2570
bull case: Bulls still see this above 2500 and inside a trading range at the highs. They are trading above the daily ema and the bull trend line is still valid. I do think the bears will not fight them for 2500 on the first try, so odds favor the bulls to stay inside the current expanding triangle and test back to the upper trend line around 2540. A weekly close above 2540 would be max bullish.
Invalidation is below 2490.
bear case: Bears finally produced more selling pressure and closed at the lows. Whenever bears printed consecutive bear bars above 2500 over the past 4 months, market was not able to hold above and sold off again. Bears expecting this time to be the same, despite the new ath. They want a reversal to 2400 and their target for tomorrow is a close below 2500.
Invalidation is above 2550.
short term: Neutral between 2500-2520, bullish above and bearish below.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling below bar 8 was decent. Stop had to be above bar 3. Market held below the 1h ema and there was decent selling pressure before.
Gold Wash-out Low after Flag Apex. Need To See $2540+ On Close.Watch this video if you are trading gold. With a perfect Flag formation and a deep washout-low rotation, we need to see Gold rally back up to near $2540 to reach the Apex level again.
Any continued price weakness will show Gold may be attempting a deeper pullback after reaching $2570.
I believe Gold will settle very well into the end of the day. Possibly even reaching $2550+.
But, this is news-driven. This move is related to the geopolitical events taking place in Taiwan and other areas of the world.
Buckle up. Gold wants to move above $2602 - but it will be a struggle from now on.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Oil gold8.22.24 in this video I talk about oil which is a reversal pattern to go long but I would be looking for it to possibly reverse and create a significant possibility of the market moving lower. to clarify this I think the market is a long trade for oil but I would be looking for specific patterns that I described in the video which would change my strategy and favor the short side of the market. gold made an all-time high and I stated at that time that the market is likely to reverse and go lower because of that 2 bar reversal but I was concerned that it was very likely for the market to range and you need to trade arranging Market differently than a trending Market. in addition you're asking for trouble if you're going to Short a market at the all-time high because the markets show the buyers at the all-time high and so if the market continues higher you can lose a lot of money. on the other hand markets like this normally range for a while and when a market is ranging you treated differently than a trending Market and this is a way for you to trade the market as a ranging market and not a trending Market and you use the upper and lower margin of the range box to look for buyers or sellers which I described in the video. much of the time when you use a range box you expect that it will transition and go higher or lower by the range of the initial box. if you can't think in terms of range boxes and distinguish them as being different from a trend it makes it very hard to handle markets like gold that made an all-time high. in many ways looking for the range box which is exactly what happened it gives you time to make a trade decision without rushing and without impulsively making trading decisions that are ill conceived and likely to cause damage to your account.
Gold futures: possible path to $3k - down then upIt looks like wave 3 is about to reach its climax soon as EWO indicator shows Bearish divergence with the rising price.
Wave 4 down could drop to the valley of smaller wave 4 around $2,285 and touch the downside of very beautiful uptrend. It should stay above the top of wave 1 at $2,085 otherwise the wave count could be invalidated.
Wave 5 in commodities is usually extended, $3k target doesn't look impossible though.
This is a Volume Spread Analysis Wyckoff Spring - Bullish Gold In this ten minute video, Author of "Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money" and Fund Manager, Gavin Holmes, explains the Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis trade set up for a bullish run called "Wyckoff Spring, Test, Accumulation phase one". This is combined with the Price and Volume indicators called "Smart Money Indicator" or SMI which analyzes just price action and volume, where Wyckoff VSA analyzes volume, price spread or range on the bar but most importantly the closing price on that bar with confirmation shown on the close of the very next price bar. Gavin's book is available on www.amazon.com by typing in the search engine either Gavin's name, Gavin Holmes or the book title "Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money".
We wish You all at TradingView Good Fortune and Constant profits.
With best wishes,
The TradeGuider Trading Team
This is Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis for TradingView - Buying In this short video, Author of "Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money" explains the importance of volume and price analysis. This example shows a Volume Spread Analysis trade set up called "Potential Professional Buying"followed by "A Test in a Rising Market". The example used is of Gold, and the same set up happened in the spot and futures contracts simultaneously.
We use our Wyckoff VSA plug in for TradingView that was recently launched and we will be posting weekly charts for you to follow. Here at TradeGuider, the company that developed the plug in for TradingView, we do not use any mathematical formulas, but instead use the analysis of Supply and Demand, Case and Effect and Effort vs Result measured by the volume on the price bar, the high and low of that price bar (referred to in Europe as the spread and in the US and Canada as the range).
Below is a more detailed explanation of the Wyckoff VSA System. Sorry its a bit long but it is important if you follow us that You understand the underlying logic for the trade. This system works in all markets and timeframes, including stocks, futures, FOREX (Yes you read right, we get tick volume through TradingView for FOREX and it is extremely powerful.).
This is Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis for TradingView developed by the Inventor of Volume Spread Analysis, Tom Williams, and his protégé, Gavin Holmes, who has now taken over the responsibility for teaching this method to thousands of traders and investors worldwide.
Most traders are aware of the two widely known approaches used to analyse a market- fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Many different methods can be used in each approach, but generally speaking fundamental analysis is concerned with the question of why something in the market will happen, and technical analysis attempts to answer the question of when something will happen.
Volume Spread Analysis, however, is a third approach to analysing any market. It combines the best of both fundamental and technical analysis into a singular approach that answers both questions of 'why' and 'when' simultaneously.
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) methodology takes a multi-dimensional approach to analysing the market, and looks at the relationship between price, spread or range, and volume. VSA is a proprietary market analysis method conceived by veteran trader, Tom Williams, who was a highly successful member of a professional trading syndicate in the 1960s and also the creator of TradeGuider Systems. (www.tradeguider.com)
The VSA method works particularly well at highlighting the imbalances of Supply and Demand.
VSA builds on the pioneering work of Richard D Wyckoff, a famous 1920's trader. He based his trading decisions on supply and demand in the markets and how they are inextricably linked to professional activity - 'Smart Money' trading (Wyckoff's principles are still taught at the Golden Gate University in San Francisco). In any business where there is money involved and profits to make, there are professionals. Doctors are collectively known as professionals, but they specialize in certain areas of medicine. The financial markets are no different. The financial markets have professionals that specialize in certain instruments as well: stocks, grains, FOREX, etc. The activity of these professional operators, and more important, their true intentions, are clearly shown on a price chart if the trader knows how to read them. Volume is the major indicator for the professional trader.
Volume Spread Analysis seeks to establish the cause of price movements, and from the cause, predict the future direction of prices. The ‘cause’ is quite simply the imbalance between Supply and Demand in the market, which is created by the activity of professional operators. It is the close study of the reactions of these specialists, market makers, professionals, or “Smart Money‘’which will enlighten you to future market behaviour.
VSA looks at the interrelationship between three variables on the chart in order to determine the balance of supply and demand as well as the probable near term direction of the market. These variables are the amount of volume on a price bar, the price spread or range of that bar (do not confuse this with the bid/ask spread), and the closing price on the spread of that bar. For the correct analysis of volume, one needs to realize that the recorded volume information contains only half of the meaning required to arrive at a correct analysis. The other half of the meaning is found in the price range. Volume always indicates the amount of activity going on and the corresponding price spread shows the price movement on that volume.
The effect is either a bullish or bearish move according to the prevailing market conditions. The ‘Smart Money’ operating in the markets are very much aware of the emotions that drive YOU, and the uninformed traders or investors, in your trading.
Why do the members of the self-regulated Exchanges around the world like to keep true volume information away from you as far as possible? The reason is because they know how important it is in analysing a market! The significance and importance of volume appears little understood by most non-professional traders. Perhaps this is because there is very little information and limited teaching available on this vital part of technical analysis. To use a chart without volume data is similar to buying an automobile without a gasoline tank.
Where volume is dealt with in other forms of technical analysis, it is often viewed in isolation, or averaged in some way across an extended timeframe. Analysing volume, or price for that matter, is something that cannot be broken down into simple mathematical formulae. This is one of the reasons why there are so many technical indicators; some formulas work best for cyclic markets, some formulas are better for volatile situations, whilst others are better when prices are trending.
Some technical indicators attempt to combine volume and price movements together. This is a better way, but rest assured that this approach has its limitations too, because at times the market will go up on high volume, but can do exactly the same thing on low volume. Prices can suddenly go sideways, or even fall off, on exactly the same volume. So, there are obviously other factors at work.
Price and volume are intimately linked, and the interrelationship is a complex one, which is the reason Volume Spread Analysis was developed in the first place.
The History of the Wyckoff Method and TradeGuider
Volume Spread Analysis was previously known as Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis and has been in existence for over 20 years. Driven by an artificial intelligence engine, the TradeGuider SMART VSA System is unique and is capable of analysing any liquid market in any time frame by extracting the information it needs in order to indicate imbalances of Supply and Demand evident in a chart. In doing so, TradeGuider is able to graphically exhibit the essential dynamics of market movement.
As mentioned earlier, this is not a new concept. Tom Williams, the inventor of VSA, is a former syndicate trader. He observed that the markets were being manipulated and that the key to unlocking the truth lay in the relationship shown in the Volume, the Spread of the bar, and its Closing Price.
Tom spent many years studying the concepts of Richard D Wyckoff, a renowned trader during the 1920’s and 1930’s. Richard Wyckoff wrote several books about trading the Markets, and he eventually created the Stock Market Institute in Phoenix, Arizona. At its core, Wyckoff’s work is based on the analysis of trading ranges and determining when the stocks are in basing, markdown, distribution, or mark-up phases. Incorporated into these phases are ongoing shifts between ‘weak hands’, or public ownership, and ‘the composite operator’, now commonly known as “Smart Money”.
When Tom Williams went back to Beverly Hills in the early 1980’s, he began to investigate the possibility of computerizing the system he had learned as a syndicate trader- and so began the evolution of Volume Spread Analysis (VSA). With the assistance of an experienced computer programmer, Tom carefully studied thousands of charts to recognize the obvious patterns that were left when professional operators, or Smart Money, were active. This technique, although simple in concept, took several years to write and is now taught as a methodology in combination with software known as TradeGuider.
Soybean oil gold8 20 24 in this video we talked about the new high on gold and the argument that this may be a reversal pattern based on ABCD patterns. I also talked about the importance of looking at higher time frames to find clues that the market might do something that you would otherwise Miss. we also talked about soybean oil which I believe will trade higher and I wanted to tell you how that pattern looks and I wanted to discuss about how the buyers and the sellers affect the market and how this affects how the market accelerates. I also decided to talk about patterns that can allow you to trade a little more frequently but can allow you to take profits before you give back some of the profits and not just that how you can scale in and out and take advantage of certain patterns if you're willing to trade with a little bit more frequency.... which is a lot harder to do because of the stress, but it's a way of generating profits and managing risk through scaling techniques. there are a lot of ways to scale but I showed you simple patterns the way I would look at them whether or not I decide to scale. I've talked about scaling many times over the past 6 years or so when I was more active with the videos.
