A Little Indicator is Flashing-One that few Know ofI discuss the GP ratio and how t predicts changes in the market environment and consequent downturns
QO1! trade ideas
Let's go LONG this week & STRIKE GOLD for the HOUSE!!!COMEX:GC1!
" A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." -Jackie Robinson
As we head into the 2nd trading week of the New Year I hope everyone has a HIGH SET Goal that they want to achieve. Let's be strategic in our goals and make sure we put forth rightful action that will get us the results we desire. In this sport we play there is no Reward without RISK... So let's get down to business on what exactly were looking for this week to STRIKE GOLD for the HOUSE to benefit...
Confluence Profile 500K (Expectational Order-Flow + PA) 15-20pt STOP / 60-100pt Target
Key info; On average GOLD runs for 240pts LONG or SHORT during NY session 5am-2pm PST.
Our Playbook: We cut 240 in Half = 120pts as our new GOAL to catch for the DAY (Intra Day)
Pillar 1) HTF EOF "Market Direction" In which direction are we headed? Who has the stronger hand?
Currently Buyers have the stronger hand on the HTF's Daily & 4Hr. We just broke above the Daily Swing EQ Level ($2696.5) and have officially entered the Daily Supply Zone ($2719.0).
**** Scenario LONG #1) Now this is my Narrative to go LONG if and when price has a slight reaction out of the Supply Zone and sellers push GOLD down towards Daily Swing EQ Level ($2696.5) I will then head to the Order Flow Footprint Chart to watch very very closely if buyers start to change the expectation of orders from bear flow to bull flow from the Key Level ($2696.5). OR
**** Scenario LONG #2) If sellers remain dominant and push price lower past EQ Level my next target will be 4Hr Sub. X Level ($2681.0). I will then head to the Order Flow Footprint Chart to watch very very closely if buyers start to change the expectation of orders from bear flow to bull flow from the Key Level ($2681.0). Or
**** Scenario LONG #3) Sellers remain Dominant and push price past EQ level & 4Hr Sub X. Level and come to mitigate the HTF Daily Demand Zone below ($2664.0). I will then head to the Order Flow Footprint Chart to watch very very closely if buyers start to change the expectation of orders from bear flow to bull flow from the Key Level ($2664.0).
Once we get our Confluence Profile 500K to flow in symmetry together; HTF Mitigation w LTF Entry Confirmation / Order Flow Footprint + PA we then will enter our positions INTRA DAY....
Key Note: LTF Pro Trend is LONG & LTF Counter Trend is SHORT.... Either way is Profit!! Done correctly at the right time & price. I will keep update as more date in the PA develops throughout the week.
Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well Abundance awaits us." -500KTrey
#202501 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold futures: Neutral but slightly bearish if bears get follow through on Monday. Market tested the 50% of the last leg down and found more sellers than buyers. Bulls now have 3 pushed up which went nowhere as of now. We also closed right at the daily 20ema so this is as neutral as it gets. If bulls get a daily close above 2680, we can continue to 2700 and below 2650 I expect more downside to 2600/2620.
comment: Likely more neutral than anything else. 50% retracement of recent bear leg is 2680 and market stopped there on Friday. We have more room to the upside inside this bigger triangle.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2620 - 2720
bull case: Bulls want a retest of 2700 but they have tried 3 times now and price went nowhere. Friday could have been a retest of the breakout but bulls would need a very strong reversal on Monday to confirm that. Bulls don’t have much until they get above 2680 and then the upside could be limited to 2700. No matter how you put it, this is not strong buying by the bulls and nothing to get excited about.
Invalidation is below 2600.
bear case: Bears sold every new high at made money for 3 weeks now. They also fail to make lower lows and that is why we are in a bigger triangle with bad follow-through after every decent bull/bear bar. I think Friday was strong enough to expect a bit more downside but where do you put your stop? 2680? Very high probability market will retest it or go above before it turns again. Most bears would like to short closer to 2700.
Invalidation is above 2730.
short term: Neutral inside given range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
#202502 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: I want to be bearish with a stop 2761 but so far bears have not done enough. Market is still above the 1h 20ema and until we have consecutive closes below, I won’t take shorts. My bear trend line is good and market showed the expected reaction there but the risk of another test of 2735 is too high to take early shorts. Bulls also closed above 2710, which is pretty bullish but I would never buy so close to a big bear trend line. Downside potential is about 100 points while upside is most likely limited to 2761, so r:r is clearly on the bear side.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2620 - 2761
bull case: Strongly bullish week and despite having many tails above the bull bars, we are only going up. Bulls want to break above the bear trend line and test 2761 again. Gold has been in a trading range 2560 - 2761 for more than 2 months and betting on a breakout is low probability. Bulls are buying this on momentum but once that is gone, they likely have to cover and try lower again. If bulls want 2800 bad, we would stay above 2700 and continue upwards. I currently see this 50/50 for both sides.
Invalidation is below 2670.
bear case: Bears tried on Friday but bulls got a big bullish reversal bar and closed above 2700. Best bears could do right now is to turn the market neutral around 2700 before they can try to sell this down again. Bulls are in full control and bears have not done much since beginning of 2025. First target for the bears is to stop the market from making new highs and staying below the 2024-12 high at 2761. Next target down would be 2680 and a 4h close below the 20ema, which has not happened since last Monday.
Invalidation is above 2761.
short term: Neutral around 2700. Bullish above 2740 for 2761 or higher and bearish only below 2650. Market most likely needs more sideways movement before we can go down.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
$GOLD & $SILVER BullishGold and silver on the monthly chart exhibited SMT and mitigation of a PDA in the discounted region, signaling a potential MMBM, which was later confirmed on the daily chart. As a result, we maintain a bullish bias for these assets, considering they may be targeting the external liquidity of the monthly chart as the final objective. However, it is worth noting that the price might correct beforehand, returning to the discount region on the daily chart to seek internal liquidity and build momentum to reach the monthly chart's final liquidity target.
Gold Update: Sideways Consolidation ^ $2,800 => $2,400-$2,500Gold futures follow the path posted earlier (see related).
It dropped quickly and deeply within a correction to hit the $2,542 mark.
Next was a strong rebound that stalled just above $2.7k
Then we saw a series of zigzags that shaped a small consolidation
All of this indicates of the sideways consolidation pattern which implies the
box type flat correction with top and bottom of the range defined by all-time high ($2,802)
and the valley at $2,542. The height of the range is around 300 bucks.
Next step for the price to retest or only touch the all-time high,
further we might face another drop to retest the valley of $2,542 or even lower
to touch the bottom of the bullish channel. Another downside target is at 38.2% Fib at $2,400.
After that, the consolidation could be over and the bullish trend to resume with new impulse.
Gold's cautious gains might be a sucker-punch for bullsWhile I suspect gold will outperform in 2025, I am suspicious of these early-year gains during low-liquidity trade. Taking market positioning into account, I assess the weekly trend structure alongside areas for bulls to seek potential shots on the daily and 4-hour timeframes.
MS
GC starts falling again mid-month upon retest of @ 2716 Once GC price reaches the green line @ 2716 which happens in the middle of this month, on or very close to Thursday 16 January, GC price will start falling again.
This is due to the relationship between Venus and Mercury in the sky, which is generating a retest of that price level.
COMEX:GC1!
2025-01-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - Neutral. Higher highs and higher lows but bulls are barely advancing the price. We have still not touched 2700 and even if we get there, I think we find more sellers than buyers and continue sideways in a bigger range. Every new high is sold and bulls will only try so many times before they give up. Bears need lower lows below 2660, bulls want 2700 and bulls are still favored for now but only on pull-backs.
comment: 4 pushes up now and selling new highs has been profitable for 3 weeks. 2700 is the absolute max I can see this touching but I’d much rather sell new highs than looking for longs on this.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2560 - 2700
bull case: Bulls want 2700 next but I doubt they will get much higher than that. That view has not changed over the past 2 weeks. They are fine as long as they are making higher lows and higher highs but they will only try so many times before we see a bigger pullback. Structure-wise bulls do not have much going for them and neither the bears. Market is in an upwards trending trading range and you should not over analyze it.
Invalidation is below 2640.
bear case: Pullbacks are getting bigger but bulls buy it all and bears can’t get follow-through selling after a decent spike. The spike is likely someone big dumping huge positions but it doesn’t matter. I expect more sellers to come into this once we get closer to 2700. First target for bears is a break of the trend line on the 1h tf and a new low below 2650. Closing the week at or below 2650 would be good for bears because that’s where we closed last week and my neutral price for now.
Invalidation is above 2710.
short term: Bearish at new highs (at or above 2680) but market is in a trending trading range. Don’t swing for the fences on shorts.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting close to 2680 was good for the past 5 days.
Gold possible Set ups for this weekSo as of right now this is what I'm seeing for possible play's. We have an uptrend but its hitting an area were we need to see a break or this is going to be the place were we start breaking down & making lower lows. We will see what the market gives us. This pair moves really good during Asian Session & London Session.
Gold’s Next Move: Upward Momentum Building at Key SupportGold is reacting exceptionally well to the Fork.
It has not opened and closed below the L-MLH within a single bar, which eliminates any immediate downside expectations.
Instead, we observe a condensed, slanted trading range or coil, indicating that price is being gradually pressed to the upside.
In my previous post about Gold, I anticipated a rocket-like breakout. Since then, price has simply moved down to the L-MLH, finding support there. This price action, coupled with the ongoing upward pressure, confirms my analysis—albeit slightly delayed.
As NQ and S&P approach their respective targets, as outlined in my other analysis, I expect Gold to start moving upward, with targets at the CL and U-MLH.
20pt Stop / 5R Run... Well Done!COMEX:GC1!
"In order to be successful in life you have to learn how to do something so well that the dead, the living, or the unborn could not to do any better." -Dr. MLK Jr.
Self-explanatory... 'Confluence Profile 500K' (Expectational Order Flow + PA) 20pt Stop / 5R Run... 1OOpt Target w/ a 20pt STOP. Covering Todays NY HIGH... #APBTG On to the next 1. #BHM500K
If Daily Supply Fails let's be strategic & Target 4Hr HIGH LONG!COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
"In order to be successful in life you have to learn how to do something so well that the dead, the living, or the unborn could not to do any better." -Dr. MLK Jr.
Here on the Daily TF market opened up and we are currently trading underneath Daily Resistance/ Daily Supply Zone ($2661.4). Now this is my "Confluence Profile 500K" Playbook System to go LONG;
Pillar 1) HTF EOF 'Market Direction' Who has the stronger more dominant hand?
Now everyone's perception is different and that is totally fine. In my personal opinion we are still Pro Trend Bullish. I believe we are caught in the middle of a current HTF Market Correction however LONG TERM I still see GOLD pumping towards $3K. 4Hr TF we are also Pro Trend Bullish lining up directly with the Daily TF. We also have more confirmation being that the 4HR High ($2656.0) was taken out with bar closures / strong aggression to the upside from aggressive buyers lifting the offer deep into the HTF Daily SUPPLY ZONE. So now my PILLAR 1) HTF BIAS has been made. Pro Trend LONG & Counter Trend SHORT.)
Pillar 2) HTF Mitigation leads to LTF Order Flow Entry Confirmation.
Let's wait for a 15m Bar closure above Daily Resistance Level ($2661.4) for our 1'st official signal LONG. If and when we can get this to play out in PA I will keep close update on the next steps in the Playbook.
Before I head off, family I have to say; NOTHING and I repeat NOTHING in the market is set in stone. We play probability & adaptability to market conditions. Let's be skilled. Let's be patient. Let's be focused. Developing a stronger system that performs exceedingly well over time. Continued Success to you all...
Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well Abundance awaits us." -500KTrey
GOLD ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS: 07 JAN, 2025©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-Master.
Wave (ii)-orange may have finished and wave (iii)-orange is pushing lower, aiming for the nearest target around 2,608.4.
While price must remain below 2,681.0 to maintain this view.
On the other hand, the alternative scenario ALT (less likely), suggests that wave ((b))-navy in another development has completed, and wave ((c))-navy will move higher. A push above 2,681.0 would indicate this.
Gold: trend analysis and price targetsCOMEX:GC1! has been very bullish in the last year, up to the record high at 2.800.
Currently the bullish trend seems to have stopped, as demonstrated by the symmetrical triangle configuration that developed starting from october 2024 and still on formation. Inside this consolidation phase , the point and figure analysis shows a double bottom sell signal (2.620 break). This signal is actually a weak one and its main indication is to underweight for those currently long and want to protect themselves from a possible bear market. The new buy-entry level is set at 2.760 .
For those who want to follow this weak sell signal nonetheless, maybe looking for an aggressive counter-trend trade in anticipation of a bear market, it is possible to go short with target price set at 2.460 and stop loss at 2.760. A more ambitious target can be set at 2.360.
