observebearish trend and a break out from the trendline,expecting more volune that pay push the market further down.
DAXEUR trade ideas
Weekly Technical AnalaysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods
Phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below)
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
Analysis
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Germany 40
Germany 40 remains bullish but is still in a correction phase, trading at 19,185, slightly below the VWAP (20) level of 19,243 after showing weakness recently. Support sits at 18,942.6, with resistance at 19,545. The RSI is at 48, indicating moderate momentum as the index attempts to regain strength within its broader uptrend.
UK 100
The UK 100 index holds a neutral trend with increased potential for a breakdown. It continues to underperform compared to other global indices. The price at 8,073 is below the VWAP (20) of 8,146. Support is positioned at 8,006, and resistance at 8,285. An RSI of 38 reflects sluggish conditions as the index tests critical support levels within its range.
Wall Street
Wall Street remains bullish but has moved into a correction phase, trading at 43,343, marginally above the VWAP (20) of 43,341. Support is at 41,211, while resistance lies at 44,809.3. The RSI at 54 shows strong momentum but signals potential consolidation before further advances.
Brent Crude
Brent Crude continues in a neutral consolidation phase, trading at 7123, below the VWAP (20) of 7289. Support is at 6973, with resistance at 7605. The RSI of 41 suggests soft but stable momentum, as the commodity remains range-bound with no significant directional bias.
Gold
Gold exhibits bullish tendencies overall but is in a sharp correction phase. The price is at 2,590, below the VWAP (20) of 2,681, and approaching the support level of 2,525.8. Resistance is at 2,836. The RSI at 37 reflects new bearish sentiment, marking a significant shift after months of bullish momentum.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD remains in a bearish, impulsive trend, trading at 1.0570, well below the VWAP (20) of 1.07395. Support is nearby at 1.0469, with resistance much higher at 1.1009. The RSI at 32 indicates strong downward pressure, signalling limited potential for bullish reversals in the near term.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD is neutral in a consolidation phase, trading at 1.2622, below the VWAP (20) of 1.28701. Support sits at 1.25384, and resistance is at 1.3156. With an RSI of 29.10, the pair shows increasing bearish momentum within its consolidation range, now approaching oversold territory.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY remains bullish in an impulsive phase, trading at 154.7, above the VWAP (20) of 153.451. Support is set at 150.952, while resistance lies at 155.95. The RSI at 59.29 reflects continued bullish momentum within its uptrend, with room to move higher before hitting overbought levels.
GER40 Likely Short at the order blockGER40 is currently consolidating near resistance at 19250, with signs of weakening bullish momentum. A pullback to 19100 - 18950 could offer buying opportunities, while failure to break above resistance at 19250 may provide shorting opportunities.
Elliott Wave View on DAX Looking for Larger Degree CorrectionShort Term Elliott Wave View in DAX suggests rally to 19670 ended wave ((3)). Wave ((4)) pullback is currently in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((3)), wave (i) ended at 19451.7 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 19591.5. Wave (iii) lower ended at 19368.69 and wave (iv) rally ended at 19468.6. Final wave (v) lower ended at 19330.1 which completed wave ((a)). Rally in wave ((b)) ended at 19643.12 with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Up from wave ((a)), wave (a) ended at 19555.45 and wave (b) ended at 19399.16. Wave (c) higher ended at 19643.12 which completed wave ((b)) in higher degree.
Wave ((c)) lower ended at 19004.97 which completed wave W in higher degree. Up from wave W, wave ((a)) rally ended at 19297.6 and wave ((b)) ended at 19104.59. Wave ((c)) higher ended at 19563.97 which completed wave X in higher degree. Index has turned lower in wave Y with internal subdivision as a zigzag structure. Down from wave X, wave ((a)) ended at 19007.88. Wave ((b)) rally ended at 19456.9 and Index has turned lower. Near term, as far as pivot at 19669.9 high stays intact, expect Index to extend lower.
Trend shifted to downside Possible sell positionGermany 40 Sell Possession
Price broke the 4H BOS recently moving towards downside
CHoCH happens after price sweeps Internal Support line
Possible Sell possession at Recent Order block + Liquidity + Fib Retracement at 0.79 (Golden Zone)
After executing the trade I'll breakeven my trade at 50% of TP
#202446 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax xetra: Neutral. Market dipped below previous support bears could not close at the lows and market reversed to trade back above the big number 19000. Bears had a great setup with the head & shoulders and it failed. If bulls can get above 19350 again, many bears will probably give up and only try again above 19500. Daily close below 19000 will probably be the death signal for prices above and we go down to 18000. I still don’t know if we print 18000 before 20000 but I do think we will see both prices this year.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bears failed at 19000 which keeps 20000 alive and it’s more likely that we continue sideways than a break to the downside. Above 19600 I would favor the bulls to get it to a new ath and potentially to 20000. Wednesday was the most important day last week and I would join either side above or below that bar. Otherwise there is currently no deeper meaning of this trading range near the ath.
comment : Another week where I can’t make up new stuff. Bears dipped below 19000 and again but could not close below it even once. Market is in balance around 19200-19300 and until we have a daily close below 19000 or above 19400, we will continue to oscillate around that range. It’s maybe slightly more bearish because we have closed 4 consecutive days below the daily 20ema.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18800 - 20000
bull case: Bulls kept the market above 19000 but they fail too much against 19300. If the market can’t close above 19300 early next week, I think many bulls could give up on the chase for higher prices. Bulls do not have many arguments as of now, besides keeping it above 19000.
Invalidation is a daily close below 19000.
bear case: Bears are reasonably strong to prevent higher prices but since they can not close below 19000, we are moving sideways inside the range. I have no idea which side will show strength first next week. I do think it’s 50/50 for both sides and I would only join if it’s clear who is in control again. As a bear, I don’t think one can hold short if market goes above 19300 again.
Invalidation is above 19300.
outlook last week:
short term : Neutral 19000 - 19700, bullish above for 20000. I do think the triangle could play out some more and I am currently more willing to buy below 19200 than to short 19600.
→ Last Sunday we traded 19215 and now we are at 19210. 5 points on the week. Outlooks do not get any better.
short term: Neutral 19000 - 19300, bullish above for 19600 or higher. Daily close below 19000 is worst case for bulls because there is no more support until 18200.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Highlighted the bull flag but nothing else.
DE40, DAX SHORTLooking at the German DAX index, I am convinced about taking a short position. Over the next few days, I expect it to drop to 18250. What reinforces my view is the head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. On the American index, some cooling off would also be welcome. I will try to keep this trade updated. Of course, this is just my personal market perspective.
Potential bearish move.The Dax rose and stabilised under the 19400, as it is a key resistance from the higher timeframes. The index may find bearish momentum after not stablising above this mark, targeting potential support barriers below. Alternatively, massive bearish volume may increase if price action further stabilises under 19k.
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?DAX40 (DE40) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the pullback support.
Pivot: 19,194.43
1st Support: 19,038.61
1st Resistance: 19,346.88
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DAX D1 | Potential rebound off overlap supportDAX (GER30) has reacted off an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 18,947.26 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 18,670.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 19,446.80 which is a pullback resistance.
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1-hr Germany 40: Down Trend Persists The Germany 40 index is currently in a short-term downtrend, as observed on the 1-hour time frame. This bearish movement is confirmed by a classic technical signal known as the Death Cross, where the 20-period moving average has crossed below the 60-period moving average. This crossover is a strong indicator of weakening momentum. At the moment, the price is consolidating near the immediate resistance level, which aligns with the 23% Fibonacci retracement. A temporary increase in buying pressure could push the index higher, potentially reaching 19,100 (38% Fibonacci level) or even 19,180 (50% Fibonacci level). These higher resistance zones may offer better opportunities for sellers looking to capitalize on the broader downtrend and initiate new short positions, aiming to align with the prevailing bearish sentiment.
Downward pressureAfter intially bouncing from the 19000 barrier yesterday, the index pushed upward but the momentum was not strong enough leading to price action declining further down. As price action developed, it broke 19000 and now seems to be stabilising below this mark. As long as price is below 19000, the Dax is in search of support.
GER40: Head and Shoulders Pattern Signals Bearish MovementGER40: Head and Shoulders Pattern Signals Bearish Movement
GER40 has completed a head and shoulders pattern, indicating a potential bearish movement soon.
Yesterday, the price broke down from the neckline of the pattern, signaling a significant increase in bearish momentum.
If the price remains below the neckline in the coming days, the odds of a bearish movement will increase even more. GER40 could easily reach 18,700 and 18,300 after the prolonged bullish wave.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
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DAX may have topped alreadySince mid-August, the German index has risen nicely, gaining 2,000 points, or around 10%. However, at the end of October, the GER30 broke below its rising trendline, suggesting a potential top.
Currently, the price is consolidating within a range, and a break below 19,000 could indicate a future decline. Key support levels are at 18,300, followed by 17,300.
If you expect the index to stay below 20,000, selling rallies around 19,300 could be a viable strategy.
Heading into pullback resistance?DAX40 (DE40) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 19,198.60
1st Support: 18,949.40
1st Resistance: 19,439.34
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Upside momentumThe Dax continues to bounce back from the 19000 barrier, as it is a key support from the higher timeframes. The index may find bullish momentum after not stablising below this mark. A break the immediate resistance barriers, may be essential to look for shorts, if the index remains below 19400-19600.
