Weekly Analysis Video: GBPUSD and EURUSDHello Traders,
In this video, I present my ideas on GBPUSD and EURUSD.
After a week of waiting, we now have a clean intent on GBPUSD.
Find out on this video.
Thanks and cheers
USXUSD trade ideas
DXY │ S&P500 │NAS100 │GOLDFUNDAMENTAL, SENTIMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of DXY and its implication on the correlated instruments noted in the title.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Indicators:
1. Stock Market: The market is near its highest point (6118 vs. a high of 6130), indicating positive investor sentiment.
2. Unemployment Rate: At 4%, it's relatively low and shows stability compared to the previous month (4.1%), which suggests a healthy labor market.
3. Business Confidence and PMI: Business Confidence (50.9) and Manufacturing PMI (51.2) are above 50, indicating economic expansion.
4. Current Account to GDP: Improved from -3.8% to -3%, indicating a slightly better external position.
Bearish Indicators:
1. GDP Growth: Both the quarterly (2.3%) and annual growth rates (2.5%) have declined, signaling a slowing economy.
2. Non-Farm Payrolls: Significant drop from 307K to 143K, suggesting weakening job creation.
3. Inflation: Increased from 2.9% to 3% with a MoM rise of 0.5%, indicating growing inflationary pressures.
4. Balance of Trade and Current Account: The trade deficit widened from -78.94 to -98.43 USD Billion, and the current account deficit worsened, showing external sector weakness.
5. Government Budget Deficit: Increased from -5.4% to -6.2% of GDP, reflecting fiscal strain.
6. Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales: Consumer Confidence fell to 67.8 from 71.1, and Retail Sales dropped by -0.9%, suggesting weaker consumer spending.
Overall Sentiment: Bearish
Despite some positive indicators like the stock market's strength and a stable labor market, the slowdown in GDP growth, weak payroll data, rising inflation, worsening trade balance, and declining consumer confidence suggest a cautious outlook. The economy appears to be losing momentum, leading to a bearish sentiment overall.
SENTIMENTAL ANALYSIS
Large spec commercial traders are particularly bearish against the dollar ( Commitment of Traders (COT) Analysis for USD Index (ICE Futures U.S.) )
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
1. DXY
2. S&P500
3. NAS100
4. GOLD
DXY Long into Zero Issuance WindowThe DXY was hammered when bad economic data came in last week. It also took a hit when a 30-year bond auction rallied the long bond, and caused yields to drop.
This move of dropping also occurred as the Treasury issued bills almost every day of the month, but now there's a window where no bonds will be auctioned until Tuesday.
The chart structure shows a falling wedge consolidation which bounced from the bottom, and this is a key level which resulted in a pivot going back to November 2023.
If DXY can solidify a support where there used to be resistance, this could add confidence to a further swing upward.
USD Under Pressure: Impact Retail Sales and Trade TensionsThe U.S. dollar faces another challenging session, with the DXY index dropping 0.4% in the end-of-week session and posting a weekly decline of 1.4%, bringing the greenback to levels unseen since early December. This performance is largely attributed to disappointing January retail sales data and trade tensions stemming from the potential implementation of more “meticulous” tariffs than initially expected, some of which may not take effect until April.
Retail sales, one of the key indicators of U.S. consumer strength, fell 0.9% month-over-month in January, significantly below the -0.1% expected by analysts. This marks the sharpest contraction since March 2023, reflecting the impact of adverse weather conditions and specific factors such as the Los Angeles wildfires. Sectors such as sporting goods, vehicles and parts, and e-commerce experienced the largest declines. This deterioration in domestic demand is further reinforced by the drop in “core” sales for GDP calculations—which exclude food, automobiles, building materials, and gasoline—coming in at -0.8%.
In terms of monetary policy, this data supports the likelihood of a second rate cut in 2025. Futures markets are now pricing in approximately 38 basis points of easing before year-end, a notable adjustment from the 26 basis points anticipated just the day before. The scale of this market revision reflects the relative shift in the economic outlook following weak consumer data. Naturally, this expectation of lower returns on dollar-denominated assets, with the U.S. Treasury yield falling 6 basis points to 4.47%, exerts downward pressure on the U.S. currency.
Looking at the short- and medium-term outlook, the dollar’s performance will continue to be shaped by the evolution of trade tensions. The recent executive order signed by President Donald Trump includes the adoption of “reciprocal tariffs”, though the final scope of these measures remains uncertain. If the administration continues to adopt a “surgical” approach to counter what it considers unfair trade imbalances, the market may find further reasons to dismiss the scenario of a stronger greenback. Should this bearish trend for the USD persist, the next key level for the DXY index is around 105. The dollar’s trajectory will depend both on expectations for additional Fed rate cuts and tariff decisions, both of which will be critical in shaping the next few months.
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DXY Feb 10 to 14 weeks analysis DXY
Feb 10 to 14 weeks analysis
Weekly Price has dropped past the .50 level, seeking key sell stops, completing its rebalance of a BISI from dec.
Fridays candle body breaks institutional structure order flow. Note how on Thursday prices reaction on the .50 level in the current trading range and energetically displaces to below the .618 and how Friday continues that trend to the .70 level.
Note how Price spent a lot of time at the 50 on this range and has swept sell stops.
Note that Price is in a double discount on the daily and hourly.
Note how Price has predominately working the lower half of the HFT FVG since Dec 18.
Note that Price has taken all sell stops but the two remaining since Dec 6 low.
Feb 17 to 21 ideas
This week we could see price retraces to rebalance Thursdays inefficiently delivered price as a shot term idea. There could be a raid on stops at the noted equal highs before bearing lower, as an idea for the week.
However if we are in fact bearing it will gravitate to the Daily BISI and noted sell stops-short and long term targets.
This week I want to focus on what liquidity is taken and when. TIME AND PRICE. I have been studying before the market and making a projection and EXCEPTING it to play out. That strategy while informative is creating a habit of inflexibility to me not being dynamic and flexible.
I want to be adaptable to what the tape is reading and create a day plan from there.
Weekly FOREX Forecast Feb 17-21This is an outlook for the week of Feb 17-21st.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
JPY, USDJPY
The USD Index ran the previous weekly low Friday, capping off another bearish week. With the USD weakening on mixed fundamental news, its currency counterparts are taking advantage of the opportunity to outperform the USD.
Look for the majors to potentially move higher vs the USD this week.
Be mindful there is a lot of red folder news items coming up for the week ahead, to include FOMC on Wednesday.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
DOLLARThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a measure of the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies: the Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), British Pound (GBP), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Swedish Krona (SEK), and Swiss Franc (CHF)1. Created in 1973 by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the DXY serves as a benchmark for evaluating the USD's performance
The DXY is a reliable gauge for measuring the strength of the U.S. dollar. An increasing DXY value indicates a strengthening U.S. dollar against other currencies in the index, while a decreasing value suggests a weakening U.S. dollar.
just for educational purpose,do your own research..
SHORT! US Dollar.....For nowUSD is in a clear wave 2 down for many reasons.
- Tariffs speculation
- Inflation data higher than expected
- US M2 money supply increase
- US manufacturing output drops and Retail sales drop
Moreover, the dollar for now is bearish until reversals in the aforementioned list of causes for its recent decline. Primarily, look for the FED to hold off on any future rate cuts until later in the year. Treasury Yields(Bond Sell off) rising recently is an indication that the market does not expect any FED rate cuts happening anytime soon. This could spur demand for the US Dollar as other Central Banks globally look to continue to cut rates (i.e. ECB and BOE).
[4H] DXY - Mid-Term Analysis Under Donald TrumpThe U.S. dollar experienced heightened volatility on the day of Donald Trump’s hypothetical inauguration for a second term as president, reflecting market uncertainty around his policy agenda. Below is an analysis of potential drivers for the dollar’s trajectory, incorporating short-term dynamics and longer-term risks:
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1. Tariffs, Inflation, and the Fed’s Response
A renewed push for reciprocal—and potentially universal (due to practicality)—tariffs could disrupt global trade flows, raising import costs for U.S. businesses and consumers. Coupled with an already tight labor market, these pressures could accelerate inflation. Elevated input costs (e.g., raw materials, manufactured goods) might manifest in key metrics like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as early as Q2 2024 (March-May), particularly if supply chains face renewed bottlenecks.
In this scenario, the Federal Reserve —which remains staunchly data-dependent—could respond with rate hikes to anchor inflation expectations. Higher interest rates would likely bolster the dollar’s appeal in the near term, attracting foreign capital seeking yield advantages in U.S. Treasuries or other dollar-denominated assets. Markets may price in this hawkish pivot ahead of official Fed action, amplifying short-term dollar strength.
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2. Safe-Haven Demand Amid Geopolitical Risks
Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric (e.g., targeting China, the EU, or emerging markets) risks sparking retaliatory measures, reviving fears of a global trade war. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty could drive investors toward traditional safe-haven assets, including the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds. This dynamic would likely support the DXY (Dollar Index) in the short term, particularly if equity markets react negatively to protectionist policies.
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3. Long-Term Risks: Economic Slowdown and Eroded Confidence
While tariffs and inflation may initially buoy the dollar, their prolonged implementation could backfire. Sticky or increased inflation combined with higher borrowing costs (from Fed hikes) might dampen consumer spending, corporate investment, and GDP growth. Simultaneously, trade barriers could shrink export opportunities for U.S. industries, exacerbating economic headwinds.
Over a multi-year horizon, these factors could undermine confidence in the dollar’s stability, especially if deficits widen or growth stagnates ( stagflation risks ). Markets are forward-looking, however, and may begin discounting these risks earlier—potentially as soon as late 2024—if trade tensions escalate or growth indicators falter.
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Conclusion: Volatility as the Only Certainty
The dollar’s path will hinge on the speed and scale of policy implementation, the Fed’s reaction function, and global market sentiment. While short-term strength is plausible due to rate hike expectations and safe-haven flows, structural risks loom on the horizon. Trump’s unpredictable policymaking style adds layers of uncertainty, suggesting the dollar could face a turbulent, news-driven cycle. Investors should brace for whipsaw moves in the DXY, with tactical opportunities in the near term countered by longer-term macroeconomic vulnerabilities.
Key Watchpoints: CPI prints (Q2 2024), Fed meeting language, trade negotiation timelines, and global central bank responses to U.S. protectionism.
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This analysis balances immediate catalysts with structural shifts, acknowledging the dollar’s role as both a haven and a victim of its own policy successes.
DXY Will Go Down! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
DXY is going down and
The index made a bearish
Breakout of the key level
Of 107.400 and the breakout
Is confirmed so we are
Now bearish biased and
We will be expecting a
Further bearish move down
Sell!
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