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USXUSD trade ideas

Principle of predictionThe Principle of Prediction – How We Are Prediction Machines "Every action we take is based on a prediction—whether we realize it or not. Mastery comes from refining those predictions through data and analysis." 🔍 Understanding the Principle of Prediction - The human brain is wired for prediction. Every decision we make—whether in trading, business, or life—is an attempt to anticipate an outcome. - Prediction is about stability. Our ability to predict future events determines how well we adapt to uncertainty, manage risk, and maintain control. - The role of data and analysis: While intuition plays a role, true mastery comes from combining biological instinct with structured data-driven refinement. 📊 The Chart & Its Meaning - The chart illustrates how patterns emerge over time, reinforcing the idea that recognizing, testing, and refining these patterns enhances predictive accuracy. - Human Perception vs. Statistical Reality: - Our intuition is often biased—we see what we expect to see. - Data analysis acts as a corrective lens , aligning perception with objective reality. - Performance Optimization: - Stability in decision-making is achieved when human prediction aligns with statistical probability. - Tracking and refining pattern recognition improves predictive power over time. 🧠 Key Takeaways ✅ Prediction is survival. The better we predict, the more control we exert over uncertainty. ✅ Data refines intuition. Without measurement, prediction is just an educated guess. ✅ Mastering prediction = mastering stability. Stability isn’t found in avoiding risk, but in learning to predict and manage it effectively. 💡 The First of The Seven Principles This establishes The Principle of Prediction as the foundation of stability. - In future annotations, we can progressively introduce the next principles in a way that naturally builds on this concept. - Each principle will connect back to scientific reasoning, human needs, and performance optimization.
TVC:DXYEducation
by SERVER_SEVEN
Monday CLS, KL OB Midpoint, Model 1Monday CLS, KL OB Midpoint, Model 1 you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion. What is CLS? This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are smart money of the all markets. CLS operates in the specific times which will give you huge advantage and precisions to you entries. Focus on that. Its accuracy is amazing. Good luck and I hope this educational post helps to become better trader “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave FX Hunter ⚔
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by David_Perk
3
Levels discussed during livestream 3rd Feb 20253rd Feb 2025 DXY: If price stays above 109.30, could see it trade up to 110, beyond that 111 NZDUSD: Sell 0.5530 SL 25 TP 60 AUDUSD: Sell 0.6080 SL 30 TP 80 GBPUSD: Sell 1.2230 SL 40 TP 120 (hesitation at 1.2164) EURUSD: Sell 1.0160 SL 50 TP 150 USDJPY: Buy 156 SL 35 TP 70 EURJPY: Sell 159.40 SL 50 TP 100 GBPJPY: Sell 191.70 SL 50 TP 110 USDCHF: Wait and look for reaction at 0.92 resistance level USDCAD: Sell 1.4655 SL 50 TP 100 XAUUSD: Look for reaction at 2790 resistance (break upwards to 2812 on recessionary/reinflation/trade war fear) or reject down on DXY strength (inverse relationship)
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
USD Driving on Tariff DramaThe Dollar put in a massive move to start the week but already a large portion of that has been pared back. On a longer-term basis, it was support at prior resistance last week that held the lows, around the 107.35 level that came in to mark the highs in 2023. The next major focal point on tariffs is Europe and given the outsized 57.6% allocation of the Euro in the DXY quote, that could have a large push point in the US Dollar. In DXY, the 110.00 level is key resistance and bulls haven't been able to do much above that price yet. Bigger picture, if sellers can sink the pair back below 106.50, then mean reversion setups come back on the radar and that would likely couple with a EUR/USD push back towards a 1.0700-1.0800 area, and USD/CAD back towards 1.4000 or lower. - JS
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
Tariffs and Gold: A Trade War’s Golden Ripple EffectTariffs, especially those involving major economies like the U.S. and China, can impact gold prices by influencing inflation, economic growth, and market uncertainty. If tariffs lead to trade wars, economic slowdowns, or higher consumer prices, investors may seek gold as a hedge against inflation and economic instability, driving prices up. Conversely, if tariffs strengthen a country’s economy by protecting domestic industries and boosting confidence in the local currency, gold prices may decline as investors favor riskier assets. The overall effect depends on how tariffs influence global economic conditions and investor sentiment.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by KeN-WeNzEl
top is in for the dxygm, this idea has been in the works for years, ever since we topped out 3 years ago. there has been quite a bit of variations of this idea, but this one right here has been my primary idea for a very long time. initially i imagined the dxy coming up to 111-113 before topping out, and i reckon it still can, but the worst is behind us, relatively speaking. --- if my count here is correct, the dxy will begin extending down into wave c into the last days of 2025 where a major low will be put in place . this will create a hyper-parabolic bull phase for risk assets, in conjunction with declining rates. --- if you've been waiting for a signal to buy alts this is your signal. 🌙 --- ps. view my private idea from last year via: 🌙
TVC:DXYShort
by notoriousbids
DXY Analysis & ConsiderationsOverall Trend & Context: Long-Term Uptrend: The DXY exhibits a clear uptrend from late 2023, indicating persistent USD strength. Key Levels: Resistance Zone (109.50 - 110.00): This zone has proven a challenge for the DXY to break decisively. A sustained break above this level is crucial for further upside. Support Zone (107.00 - 108.00): This zone has provided support during pullbacks. EMAs (25, 50, 100, 200 - 4-Hour Chart): The DXY is trading above all EMAs, a bullish sign. The 25 EMA is acting as dynamic support, and a bullish crossover (25 above 50) has occurred. Potential Scenarios & Probabilities: Bullish Breakout (High Probability) : The bullish EMA alignment favor an upside breakout above 110.00. Increased volume would confirm this scenario. Pullback to Support/EMAs (Medium Probability) : A pullback towards the support line or the 25 EMA (around 108.80 - 109.00) is plausible, especially given the overbought RSI. This could offer a good long entry opportunity. Breakdown Below Support (Low - Medium Probability) : A break below the support line and the EMAs would weaken the bullish outlook and could lead to a deeper correction. Trading Considerations: xxxUSD pairs - If the dollar goes up we should look for short positions. USDxxx pairs - If Dollar goes up we can look for long positions. A pullback to the support zones or the 25 EMA could offer a lower-risk long entry, provided these levels hold and there is sufficient demand on the USDxxx pair you're trading. (technicals should always be prioritized) Consider placing stop-loss orders below key support/demand levels to manage risk. Look for increased volume during breakouts or bounces off support to strengthen signals. Watch for bearish divergence on the RSI as a potential bearish warning sign on the DXY. Geopolitical Factors: De-dollarization Efforts: Some countries are exploring alternatives to the US dollar for trade and reserves. While this is a long-term trend, any significant announcements or actions could impact the dollar's value.   Sanctions and Trade Policies: US sanctions and trade policies can influence the dollar's strength, particularly against the currencies of targeted countries. The US imposed tariffs are creating ripples right now. Let's quickly look at what 'tariffs' are - By now you should all know about the US imposed tariffs on several major trading partners including China, Canada and Mexico (and that they've retaliated with their own tariffs on US goods). What does this all mean? In the US any goods that are imported from Canada for example, will now cost more to the general public. To put it simply, the US is now charging a "handlers fee" and that will increase the overall price. These tariffs are intended to encourage these countries to change their trade practices. The tariffs have disrupted global supply chains, increased costs for businesses, and created uncertainty. Make no mistake, this is without a doubt, a trade war. Potential Impacts on the US Dollar: Positive Impact: Safe-haven demand: Increased global economic uncertainty due to the trade war could drive investors towards the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, increasing demand and its value. People will flock to the take no s#it protocols implemented by the Trump administration. Reduced imports: If tariffs lead to a significant decrease in US imports, there could be less demand for foreign currencies to purchase those imports, indirectly increasing demand for USD. This means that trade conducted by the US will increase the overall Dollar output - thus making it seem more valuable. (If we assume the Trump administration is playing petty games, we're badly misinformed, we should assume that these are well calculated risks) Negative Impact: Reduced US exports: Tariffs can make US goods less competitive, leading to a decrease in exports. This can reduce foreign demand for USD, as fewer foreign buyers need dollars to purchase US goods. Economic slowdown: The trade war could negatively impact economic growth in the US and globally. A slowdown in the US economy could make the dollar less attractive to investors. Retaliatory tariffs: If other countries retaliate with their own tariffs on US goods, it can further dampen US exports and reduce demand for the dollar. Trade Wars and Uncertainty: The uncertainty and potential for escalation associated with trade wars can negatively impact investor confidence and lead to a flight to safety. While the USD is often seen as a safe haven, extreme uncertainty could lead investors to seek other safe-haven assets or reduce their overall exposure to USD (Right now Gold is something you should be looking into as a trader and investor). Final Notes: The technical picture is strong and does favour a breakout. But the geopolitical risks reduce the probability. Be prepared for fundamentals to override technicals in the short term. Given the heightened risks, traders should be cautious and wait for clear confirmation signals before taking positions. Closely follow news related to the debt ceiling, economic data, and geopolitical events. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
TVC:DXYLong
by Apexfx_Alpha
DXY Will Move Higher! Buy! Please, check our technical outlook for DXY. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 108.497. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 109.050 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
1Q2025 update pre-January NFPsThis idea is a follow up on my previous DXY idea attached below. I predicted the DXY to pullback at the start of the year and for the support level between 106.9 and 107.4 to hold its ground upon this pullback. The 50-day MA currently at 107.8 is now the main support level to hold and a failed break below this level will be an early indication of another 5-wave impulse higher towards the September 2022 high at 114.8 in the 1Q2025. The announcement over the weekend of Trumps 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada plus the 10% import levies imposed on China has sent the DXY straight up towards the current yearly high at 110.1 in the early morning trade which in dollar positive. In terms of US treasuries and the US government's debt burden, President Trump has to somehow create demand for the US treasuries and a persistent inflation environment forces investors to demand a higher yield on their treasuries. I believe Trump will create this US treasury demand by sucking dollars back into the US via his trade tariffs and suspension of foreign aid to other countries (essentially allowing the dollar milkshake theory to playout). The dollar may however get too strong for Trump's likening since a stronger dollar makes goods from the US more expensive while making foreign goods cheaper for the US which will only further exacerbate the US trade deficit. Trump essentially needs a weaker dollar to turn the US into an exporting manufacturing country, "making America great again" but I see the effect of his policies being dollar positive? Perhaps Trump will negotiate a Plaza accord 2.0 to systematically devalue the dollar...
TVC:DXYLong
by Goose96
DXY Dive Incoming? Watch the Liquidity Zones!From the higher timeframe perspective, DXY is currently hovering within a key monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG), marked in red. This zone serves as a critical point of interest and could dictate the next directional bias for the dollar. Key Observations: Current FVG Zone: -Price is consolidating within the monthly FVG. A close below this zone would provide stronger confirmation of a bearish move targeting lower liquidity levels. Bearish Bias: -The recent price action indicates weakness as sellside liquidity (SSL) is beginning to show signs of attraction. -The presence of significant sellside liquidity targets below, including: -105.411 (Weekly SSL - Sweep) -103.370 (Weekly SSL - Next Zone) -100.215 (Major Daily SSL Zone) Messy Market Conditions: -Due to fluctuating macroeconomic factors, including USD news events, we may observe temporary rallies or retracements. However, these are likely to form lower highs before continuing the descent. Confirmation Levels: -Bearish Confirmation: A daily or weekly close below the monthly FVG would solidify the bearish case, signaling that sellside liquidity at 105.411 and lower levels are likely next. -Bullish Risk: If the current FVG holds as support and price pushes higher, we could see an attempt to retest higher zones (e.g., 109.535) before resuming downside momentum. Conclusion: The expectation is for DXY to drop towards sellside liquidity levels at 105.411, 103.370, and potentially as low as 100.215. However, traders should await a clean confirmation (such as a close below the monthly FVG) to validate the move. DYOR (Do Your Own Research) and trade safely amidst potential market volatility! Let me know if you'd like any refinements!
TVC:DXYShort
by INSIDER_INTEL
Potential bullish rise?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 107.49 1st Support 106.47 1st Resistance: 109.64 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
Dollar Index - End of January AnalysisJune 2022 was the last time we witnessed a major bullish run reaching into macro imbalances @ 110. Donald Trump was elected in November 2024 and ever since, we have witnessed a similar run, in which Dollar punished those who were short based on market trend and sentiment at the time. Many long term traders saw 106 as ‘safe’ price point to place their buystops but the market had other plans… As the algorithm repriced higher upto 106, it became a self fulfilling prophecy where more buy stops were triggered increasing the likelihood of a low resistance liquidity run. Highs for the month is 110.176 Lows for the month is 107.969 Bearish bias negated if I see a candle body closure above the monthly highs and CE of 6 month sellside imbalance.
TVC:DXYShort
by LegendSince