VIX vs Autofib StrategyAutofib seems to do bad for the VIX index on red market days. As always, none of this is investment or financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and research.
VIX trade ideas
VIX has topped for now. Markets to rip higher soonThe VIX has touched the upper resistance and will reverse soon. VIX going down means markets will go higher.
IMO, we won't have more major downside until October / November.
The Fear Index and Geopolitical TensionsIn an era marked by geopolitical tensions and economic volatility, the fear index emerges as a crucial tool for traders seeking to navigate turbulent markets. This article delves into the historical significance of the fear index, exploring pivotal moments like the Cuban Missile Crisis, the 1973 Oil Crisis, and the 2008 Financial Crisis. By understanding how investor psychology and market sentiment intertwine with the fear index, traders can gain a competitive edge.
In today's world, marked by unprecedented geopolitical tensions, understanding the fear index has never been more crucial. As global conflicts escalate, the fear index provides essential insights into market sentiment and helps risk managers navigate through these turbulent times.
A Geopolitical Powder Keg
We are witnessing a convergence of significant geopolitical events:
Russo-Ukrainian Conflict: Ongoing hostilities have far-reaching implications for global stability.
Middle Eastern Volatility: Potential for a full-scale war involving major powers like Israel, the U.S., and Iran.
Sino-Taiwanese Tensions: Threats of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan with severe repercussions for the semiconductor industry and global economy.
Pro-Palestinian Protests: These could escalate into widespread violence, further destabilizing the political and economic landscape.
The Role of the Fear Index
The fear index, often measured by market volatility, acts as a barometer of investor sentiment in the face of these geopolitical risks. By closely monitoring the fear index, risk managers can gain early warnings of market disruptions and develop strategies to mitigate potential crises.
Historical Context
Historical precedents show how the fear index responds to geopolitical tensions:
Cuban Missile Crisis (1962): Stock markets plummeted due to heightened anxiety, underscoring the impact of geopolitical events on market sentiment.
1973 Oil Crisis: The Arab-Israeli War and subsequent oil embargo led to global economic downturns, reflecting the fear index's potential spike during such crises.
9/11 Attacks: The fear index surged as markets reacted to the unprecedented nature of the terrorist attacks.
2008 Financial Crisis: Global financial instability caused a dramatic increase in the fear index, providing early warnings of the impending market collapse.
COVID-19 Pandemic: The pandemic's economic halt saw the fear index spike, signaling early disruptions.
Methodologies for Calculation
Understanding how the fear index is calculated enhances its utility:
Volatility Indexes (e.g., VIX): Measure implied market volatility.
Sentiment Analysis: Assess sentiment through news and social media.
Investor Behavior Metrics: Analyze options trading and margin debt levels.
Combining these approaches offers a comprehensive view of market fear in response to geopolitical tensions.
The Psychological Impact
Investor behavior during geopolitical crises is influenced by:
Loss Aversion: Heightened sensitivity to potential losses.
Herd Mentality: Following the crowd amplifies reactions.
Availability Heuristic: Overestimating the probability of easily recalled events.
Strategic Applications
Risk managers must adopt a holistic approach, integrating the fear index with geopolitical and economic data to develop robust contingency plans. While the fear index can't predict crises' exact timing or magnitude, it provides valuable early warnings to prepare for potential disruptions.
Conclusion
The fear index is indispensable for navigating today's geopolitically charged environment. By monitoring market sentiment and identifying emerging trends, you can protect your investments from unforeseen events and build resilience. Embrace the insights offered by the fear index to stay ahead in these volatile times.
#VIX prediction for next weekAs can be seen, the price appears to be completing a triangle pattern, which could be interpreted as wave 2 or wave b. Either way, we could expect another rally to complete wave 3 or c.
This analysis is triggered once the price breaks above the previous high, and any bearish retracement could be a buying opportunity.
Let me know if you would like me to publish an analysis in a lower timeframe on this chart to take advantage of this rally.
VIX 20 years Later !What will fuel this next Bull Market?
#AI and exponential gains in productivity seem like a fair bet.
The technology won't manifest properly in the next few years of course.
But the speculation and new companies will.
20 years ago we saw the trendline of the #VIX break
coming out of 9/11 and right around the time of the Iraq war
Military spending, Lowering of rates, a Housing boom , and the rise of Google and culminating in the iphone.
Seems eerily similar to the current #macro environment
$VIX Volmageddon TVC:VIX is bouncing at the moment, on the 15 minute chart, which is my favorite time frame to trade anything on. I'm really liking the volatility lately. Flirting with the top monthly trend line, but holding support into this curl up. Tuesday's FOMC could be the catalyst. See daily and monthly charts posted prior.
$VIX Volmageddon On the daily chart, TVC:VIX is in great shape, even though it's down ~11% today. SP:SPX AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ etc. are building into that right shoulder of what appears to be a head and shoulders. So I expected TVC:VIX to be crushed into it. Obviously if the H&S patterns play out, TVC:VIX should spike.
There's a strange repeating pattern in the VIX (angles)make of this what you will but I've noticed the VIX has a repeating pattern that follows a repeating pattern. that white trendline you see is the exact same angle in every iteration. I think we may be repeating a yellow box pattern of lower volatility for the next 1-2 years. What do you think about this?
VIX SP500: BAT and SHARK possibleVIX SP500: BAT and SHARK possible
possibility of a harmonic figure "shark" and "bat" which would bring the price to the levels indicated on the chart.
In addition there is a divergence on the R.O.C and the RSI.
monitor the Fibonaccio and Ichimoku levels as well as the exponential moving averages 50 and 200
VIX Resistance TestI usually prefer to use VX or UVXY for analysis, but VIX can have its uses as well. Today it rejected nicely on a retest of a trendline it had broken below earlier in the year. This supports my idea of this being a bottom for NQ, but it can go hard the other way. Critical spot here for the future of NQ and semiconductors.
VIX neutralMost probably from how i have been treating the US stocks over the years, we are looking foward to consolidation for few then at the break of the compression we will be looking at the stocks plunging
This is just an outlook will only going to work on them once the sentiments have been proven
$VIX likely falters some time later this yearTVC:VIX analysis
Weekly the VIX showed a doji last week. This showed a sign of possible of reversal. However, it has sputtered this week.
Daily shows that weakness a bit better.
We got the bump we expected but IMO the VIX EVENTUALLY, later in the year, falters.
SP:SPX looks kind of dazed as well.
CBOE:VXN AMEX:VXX
$VIX 's strong chart indicates an incoming volatility#vix volatility index chart made double bottom and W bounced. The bullish movement will likely continue even more while the chart made bullish flag in lower time frame.
Also recent days #dxy dollar index chart made a bullish breakout and while VIX and TVC:DXY are both getting stronger, this will not likely be good for #btc #altcoins #stocks etc. I think something is cooking... Better not to be over greedy. Not financial advice.
