6N HL MTR from demand areaPossible range trade, and best case MM Up
- Target range top
- Target 2 Range width up
- Target 3 Trend leg up
FCNUH2025 trade ideas
Possible Expanding Triangle - New Zealand DollarA possible expanding triangle setup on the 4hour of the NZD. Assuming the US Dollar continues with strength we could possibly see a D wave to around 0.60470 for NZD.
Wave A represents 38.2% of the last downtrend wave in expanding triangle.
Wave B represents 1.272% of wave A in expanding triangle.
Wave C represents 1.272% of wave B in expanding triangle.
Wave D represents 1.272% of wave C in expanding triangle
Wave E represents 1.272% of wave D in expanding triangle.
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What’s ahead for the dollar?As the year draws to a close, it's an opportune time to evaluate the potential trajectory of the dollar going forward.
From a broader perspective, we anticipate a regime shift for the dollar in 2024, potentially marking significant turning points for the major dollar pairs. Notably, since the 1990s, each instance when real rates crossed the 1% threshold, the dollar experienced an average sustained fall of approximately 18% over around 340 days. The combination of aggressive hikes and lower inflation has now pushed real rates clearly above the 1% mark, but the dollar’s reaction thus far has been rather muted when considering the past 3 reactions.
This observation aligns with our cyclical analysis of the dollar. Historically, the dollar index has demonstrated a recurring cycle of approximately 3.5 years, often bottoming out at the end of most cycles.
Furthermore, the dollar index has recently dipped below the crucial 103 resistance level, a significant benchmark since the 1990s.
In light of a potential weaker dollar in 2024, we're exploring various strategic positions. At present, the NZDUSD pair, in particular, stands out due to its compelling technical setup and policy divergence.
Currently both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are testing their 3-year resistance levels.
Given the current inflation and interest rate scenarios, we find the NZDUSD pair more appealing. New Zealand's inflation rate remains relatively high compared to the US, while their policy rates are almost identical. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained its hawkish stance in the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting, whereas the Federal Reserve has begun hinting at possible rate cuts in 2024. Such divergence in policy should favor the NZDUSD pair as rate differentials shift towards the NZD.
Hence, considering the weaker outlook for the Dollar in 2024, combined with the technical setup in the NZDUSD's price action and the emerging policy divergence, we lean bullish on the NZDUSD. To express this view, we can go long the CME New Zealand Dollar Futures at the current price level of 0.6247, take profit at 0.6800 and stop at 0.6050. Each 0.00005-point move is 5 USD.
With that, we wrap up our last piece for 2023. We wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
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NZDUSDNZDUSD is ready to Sell. Every good setup is most probable trade not 100%. Always use money Management.
NZDFinancial Losses: Trading in the Forex market carries the risk of financial loss. It's important to carefully assess your financial situation and only invest funds that you can afford to lose without affecting your lifestyle or essential financial obligations.
NZD Futures NASDAQ:NZD futures retracted to 618 and looks as if it will make a long slide down.
Daily support level 0.60100 🎯
Safe to short NASDAQ:NZD currency pairs this week.
Short New Zealand DollarThe last COT index signal was bearish. The saisonality show a strong bearish trend for the next weeks. Addtionally, the price was rejecte twice in the red resistane box. Next support expected at 0.62.
SL: 0.6601
Target 1: 0.62
Target 2: ~0.58 (suppot by red trendline)
RR (Target 2): 1.7
NEW ZELAND DOLLAR FUTURES (6N1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance :0.61615
Pivot: 0.60565
Support : 0.60050
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below descending trendline and ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 0.60565, where the current price is to the 1st support at 0.60050, where the 78.6% fibonacci projection is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 0.61615, where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and previous swing low is.
Fundamentals: the Monetary Base y/y is out today, showing -2.4%, which is lower than forecasted and previous data.
NEW ZELAND DOLLAR FUTURES (6N1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance :0.61615
Pivot: 0.60565
Support : 0.60050
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below descending trendline and ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 0.60565, where the current price is to the 1st support at 0.60050, where the 78.6% fibonacci projection is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 0.61615, where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and previous swing low is.
Fundamentals: the Monetary Base y/y is out today, showing -2.4%, which is lower than forecasted and previous data.
NEW ZELAND DOLLAR FUTURES (6N1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance :0.61615
Pivot: 0.60565
Support : 0.60050
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below descending trendline and ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 0.60565, where the current price is to the 1st support at 0.60050, where the 78.6% fibonacci projection is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 0.61615, where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and previous swing low is.
Fundamentals: the Monetary Base y/y is out today, showing -2.4%, which is lower than forecasted and previous data.
New Zealand Dollar Futures (6N1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.63840
Pivot: 0.63205
Support : 0.62485
Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving within an ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 0.63205 where the swing high resistance, 127.2% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are. Once there is upside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 0.63840 where the swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci projection , 161.8% fibonacci extension and 127.2% fibonacci extension are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 0.62485 where the overlap support is.
Fundamentals: Due to the lower economic activity, we have a bearish view on New Zealand Dollars. We'll need to exercise caution for this setup because our fundamentals and technicals are not completely aligned.
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR FUTURES (6N1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.63185
Pivot: 0.62470
Support : 0.61850
Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving within an ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 0.62470 where the overlap support is to the 1st resistance at 0.63185 where the swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 127.2% fibonacci extension are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 0.61850 where the overlap support, 50% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.
Fundamentals: No Major News
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR FUTURES (6N1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.63185
Pivot: 0.62470
Support : 0.61850
Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving within an ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 0.62470 where the overlap support is to the 1st resistance at 0.63185 where the swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 127.2% fibonacci extension are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 0.61850 where the overlap support, 50% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.
Fundamentals: No Major News
New Zealand Dollar Futures (6N1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.63185
Pivot: 0.62505
Support : 0.61850
Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving within an ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 0.62505 where the overlap resistance is. Once there is upside confirmation that price has broken the pivot , we would expect bullish momentum to carry prices to 1st resistance at 0.63185 where the swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement , 61.8% fibonacci projection and 161.8% fibonacci extension are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 0.61850 where the overlap support and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.
Fundamentals: No Major News
New Zealand Dollar Futures (6N1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.63185
Pivot: 0.62505
Support : 0.61850
Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving within an ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 0.62505 where the overlap resistance is. Once there is upside confirmation that price has broken the pivot , we would expect bullish momentum to carry prices to 1st resistance at 0.63185 where the swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement , 61.8% fibonacci projection and 161.8% fibonacci extension are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 0.61850 where the overlap support and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.
Fundamentals: No Major News
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR FUTURES (6N1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 0.62475
Pivot: 0.61855
Support : 0.61190
Preferred Case: On the H1, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and within the descending channel , we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 0.61855 in line with the pullback resistance, 78.6% fibonacci projection , 61.8% fibonacci projection and 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 0.61190 where the 127.2% fibonacci extension and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.62475 where the swing high resistance and 127.2% fibonacci extension are.
Fundamentals: No Major News
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR FUTURES (6N1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 0.62475
Pivot: 0.61855
Support : 0.61190
Preferred Case: On the H1, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and within the descending channel , we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 0.61855 in line with the pullback resistance, 78.6% fibonacci projection, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 0.61190 where the 127.2% fibonacci extension and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.62475 where the swing high resistance and 127.2% fibonacci extension are.
Fundamentals: No Major News
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR FUTURES (6N1!), H1 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.63190
Pivot: 0.62480
Support : 0.61865
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud and has broken through the descending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 0.62480 in line with the swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement . Once we have upside confirmation that price has broken past pivot , we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to the 1st resistance at 0.63190 where the swing high resistance and 161.8% fibonacci extension are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may drop to the 1st support level at 0.61865 in line with the pullback support and 61.8% fibonacci projection .
Fundamentals: No Major News
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR FUTURES (6N1!), H1 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.63190
Pivot: 0.62480
Support : 0.61865
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud and has broken through the descending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 0.62480 in line with the swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement. Once we have upside confirmation that price has broken past pivot, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to the 1st resistance at 0.63190 where the swing high resistance and 161.8% fibonacci extension are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may drop to the 1st support level at 0.61865 in line with the pullback support and 61.8% fibonacci projection .
Fundamentals: No Major News
