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FDXS1! trade ideas

DAX Take 1 Part 2 – Reloaded but not yet good to goThe first time, we saw the DAX poke the 1/4 line. This was followed by several attempts (distribution by the big players), and from that point on, it headed south and the DAX rolled down the hill. Currently, it looks very similar. I’m watching and observing the break of the trend barrier very closely, even on smaller timeframes than the daily. The profit targets are indicated by the red arrows. After the break of the thick white centerline, a strong retest of the CL could be in store. My main target would then be the red centerline. Since the markets are behaving completely irrationally, I’ll need more “breathing room” in the trade and will handle this trade using long-dated LEAP options. ...poor little guy §8-)
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
2025-06-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: When in doubt, zoom out. Market is leaving gaps below and daily bar closed at the high (at least for futures). Bulls will likely get another spike above 24430 to run the stops but I don’t know if they can get more. Buying above 24200 is there but lackluster but that’s still enough for the bulls because bears are not doing anything, so do not look for shorts. I think we are days away from the top but it’s a rough guess. current market cycle: broad bull channel key levels: 23700 - 24500 bull case: Bulls remain in control. There are making higher highs and higher lows. That’s all you need to understand about the current price action. Do not sell this unless you are really really good at reversals. The easy money is buying pullbacks. Do that until we make lower lows. Next targets are 24430 and then 24500. Invalidation is below 24130. bear case: Even if bears get below 24130, we have another trend line around 24000 and for now we can not expect bears to just appear. They will likely need an event or market has to spend more time building a credible top before we can reverse. Invalidation is above 24550. short term: Neutral. Bulls remain in full control but buying up here is just too easy to get trapped and I will rather wait. 24500 is the next obvious target. I think it’s more likely we are in a trading range 23700 -24500 than getting another strong move above 24500. medium-long term from 2025-05-25: My rough guess from early May was down over the summer and up into year end. POTUS certainly helped with the 50% tariffs. I need to see market reaction next week and if there is no 180° reversal until Friday, they will become reality the week after and dax should do 20-30% down over the next months. Markets were not positioned for any risk what so ever. Now we got the atomic trade bomb. trade of the day: Long overnight or EU session for 24400. The short from 24371 was not obvious nor easy to take. Also went much further than I expected it to go. Buying the double bottom 24160 was the second best trade. Market found not acceptance below the 1h 20ema and it was also the Globex low.
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by priceactiontds
2025-04-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: We will likely have a big breakout tomorrow or Wednesday. Right now I still favor the bears since we are in a bear trend but if we print 21701, it’s over and market is neutral again on higher time frames. Today’s high 21266 is not the best stop for shorts but if we just continue down from US close, it will have to do. current market cycle: trading range or continuation of the bear trend - answer will be given on Tuesday key levels: 19000 - 22000 yeah. no typo. bull case: Bulls want to stay above the 4h 20ema and break above the closest bear trend line from 22350. If they print a higher high tomorrow, we could gain enough momentum by shorts covering that we test 21500 and the next bear trend line that started this bear trend a month ago close to the ath. Bears have not printed one good bear bar on the 4h chart since Thursday after EU close. That increases the odds for the bulls somewhat but still have my doubts. Invalidation is below 21000. bear case: Bears need to make lower highs below 21226 and lower lows below 20900 early tomorrow or bulls will continue higher and bears have to cover. We are near two very important trend lines and they either hold or we go much higher again. We have been on a broad bull channel since Thursday and market has not moved up that much given the volatility the days before. Tough guesses tbh but I will continue to look for trades only near the extremes and on good momentum. Invalidation is above 21300. short term: Neutral. Mabye a bit bearish if we get decent selling going early tomorrow. 20900 - 21226 is the current range and we will likely break out of it tomorrow. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the globex gap close or the double bottom 20900. Why? Because every time market dipped below 20970 today, we rallied back up.
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by priceactiontds
#202522 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: Max bearishness last Friday but markets refuse to go down and take tariff risks at face value. Q2 earnings will tell the story so buckle up. Earnings season kicks off in about 3 weeks. Until then the next big event will be in 8 days when 50% EU tariffs may or may not come into play. Until then I don’t expect a big move to the downside, since bears tried couple of times but market refuses to go down. The big upper channel line runs up to 25000 and that is the next obvious big target. For bears it’s a break below the bull wedge and retesting 23300. current market cycle: bull wedge and on the weekly tf it’s a broad bull channel and we are at the very top key levels for next week: 23000 - 25000 bull case: 25000 is the next big round number but I highly doubt we get there. I was wrong last week and until we leave bear gaps behind us, bulls are favored for everything because the reality is that buying every dip has been profitable for months now. Bulls have to keep printing higher lows though. Invalidation is below 23300. bear case: I doubt we have much more upside in store but we could very well spike to 25000 before we can expect more bulls to stop buying every dip. Bears get spikes and zero follow-through, which leads to many bear traps. Scalping both sides was fine the past 2 weeks but bears have to take quick profits or they vanish quickly. Bears need a daily close below 23300 for more downside and until then, swing shorts are account destroyers. We need a big gap down which does not close to stop the BTFD crowd. So if we get a decent one next week and market only corrects sideways, that will be the trigger for more selling. Invalidation is above 24500. short term: Neutral. Scalping both sides but I will only turn full bear with an open bear gap and a daily close below 23300. medium-long term from 2025-05-25: My rough guess from early May was down over the summer and up into year end. POTUS certainly helped with the 50% tariffs. Markets were not positioned for any risk what so ever. Now we got the atomic trade bomb. This view has not changed, just the time horizon which aligns better with Q2 earnings and my expectation that we will see the tariff madness coming through. Markets can ignore risks for longer than you can maintain your account but that does not change the reality and if you think this tariff war has a happy ending, you have not paid attention to anyone but the US government or their echo chamber.
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by priceactiontds
2025-05-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Higher highs and higher lows. Focus on the easy trades. Can only get bearish with consecutive 15m or 1h bars below 24000 and for now that is unlikely. Bulls bought 24000 the whole week so look for longs. current market cycle: broad bull channel key levels: 23000 - 24500 bull case: As long as the bull gap 23700 - 23900 stays open, I would only look for longs. 24500 is the next obvious target and it’s not impossible that markets do a complete meltup tomorrow. Structure is a clear bull channel until we print below 24000. Invalidation is below 23900. bear case: Bears need something below 24000 again, that means lower lows. Right now bulls remain in full control and I doubt we can go from daily new ath to a big reversal down. I got nothing for the bears here. Invalidation is above 24550. short term: Neutral but would only trade long until we see much better selling pressure and prices below 24000. medium-long term from 2025-05-25: My rough guess from early May was down over the summer and up into year end. POTUS certainly helped with the 50% tariffs. I need to see market reaction next week and if there is no 180° reversal until Friday, they will become reality the week after and dax should do 20-30% down over the next months. Markets were not positioned for any risk what so ever. Now we got the atomic trade bomb. trade of the day: Short since the bull trap on the open but I did not take it. I thought chances of a reversal were too high for me. I was wrong but that’s ok.
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by priceactiontds
2025-05-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Back where we started on Friday and I do think one more big leg down will finally be enough for the persistent btfd crowd to scale it down a bit. So far it has been profitable and that’s why bears need a big gap that does not close or otherwise we just continue sideways to up. Bulls need to get trapped for this to end. current market cycle: broad bull channel key levels: 23000 - 24300 bull case: Watch the 1h 20ema tomorrow. If we stay above, we can make another ath and it’s possible we see more upside above 24200. Since all my bull targets are met and I have no interest in buying this, I won’t be your guide in looking for longs here. I think buying above 24000, while we wait for 50% tariffs to the US, qualifies for most stupid the trade of the year. I’m happy for you if you make money on any side though. Invalidation is below 23300. bear case: Even if tariffs won’t be 50% and only 10%, it would still mean less business for everyone. Markets are not pricing the risks right and are begging to get rug pulled. Only a couple times a year markets are so miss-aligned with reality that in hindsight you feel unwell for not risking more. Having said that, now is not the time to short. We need way more selling pressure again. Wait for big bears to appear. Below 23900 we could see a test of 23800 but it will likely be an easy trap for bears so only take it if we either move very strongly down or if we move down over a long time without any decent bounce up. Invalidation is above 24300. short term: Neutral. Sitting on hands until bulls run for the exits and big bears come out. medium-long term from 2025-05-25: My rough guess from early May was down over the summer and up into year end. POTUS certainly helped with the 50% tariffs. I need to see market reaction next week and if there is no 180° reversal until Friday, they will become reality the week after and dax should do 20-30% down over the next months. Markets were not positioned for any risk what so ever. Now we got the atomic trade bomb. trade of the day: Long since Globex open. Tough.
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by priceactiontds
#202521 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: tl;dr covered it. I would be really surprised if we see 24000 again over the next days, if not months. If there is no 180° reversal from orange face next week, this is a de-facto embargo and we will see new lows over the summer. current market cycle: trading range and very broad bull channel on the weekly time frame key levels for next week: 22000 - 24000 bull case: My base assumption is that we have started a new bear trend on Friday and any pullback will be a lower high. The higher bulls can get it, the better and weaker the trend will be. On Friday they could not hit the 50% retracement and if bears are strong, market will not trade above 23750 for the next weeks/months. If bulls can get above it, their next target would be the breakout retest 23900. Above 24000 means I am wrong about my thesis and market is doing something else, which will likely be a trading range 23000 - 243000. Invalidation is below 22900. bear case: Last Sunday I only wanted to short this but bears did not do enough until then. Friday changed it and I am in full bear mode if Monday goes well for the bears. Clear invalidation above 24000 and if bulls do not get it, shorts with stop new ath are reasonable. Donald gave the gift to bears, now I want to see some carnage. Market held above the daily 20ema but likely only due to the climactic selling, bears happy for any profit for such a long time and algos buying the first touch of the ema. Next targets for bears are the obvious round number 23000 and then closing the big gap down to 22600 and yes, I absolutely think we can get there next week. Invalidation is above 24000. short term: Neutral until bears show me some follow-through and not letting the bulls out with anything above 23800/23900. We need a big open bear gap and then we can see some bull slaughter. medium-long term from 2025-05-25: My rough guess from early May was down over the summer and up into year end. POTUS certainly helped with the 50% tariffs. I need to see market reaction next week and if there is no 180° reversal until Friday, they will become reality the week after and dax should do 20-30% down over the next months. Markets were not positioned for any risk what so ever. Now we got the atomic trade bomb.
EShort
by priceactiontds
2025-05-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Quick stuff. Daily new ath means bulls are doing more than bears so don’t look for shorts. Today’s selling was a start but we need a clean lower high before one can look for decent short setups. I think anything above 24300 would make me physically sick. current market cycle: broad bull channel key levels: 23000 - 24300 bull case: Sideways above 24000 is peak bullishness and as long as we stay above 23750, bulls are fine. Below we test down to the bull trend line which is not far below that and only below 23400 things are getting more spicy for bulls. Invalidation is below 23300. bear case: I will spend more time in this section once we have a daily close below 23400. Before that, it’s most likely a pullback that bulls will buy. Odds are heavily against bears so don’t make your life tough. Long term shorts if you can hold through 24500 or higher are fine. Next 10-20% will be made to the downside, zero doubt about it. Only matter is timing. Invalidation is above 24300. short term: Neutral. Pullbacks will likely be good long opportunities until we see bigger selling pressure. Bulls in full control but I will not buy the highs. Nothing changed. medium-long term from 2025-05-11: So here is my very rough guess about the next months. This short squeeze is clearly overdone and global macro stuff has most likely already deteriorated a great deal. Down to 20000 over the next weeks and form a big trading range. Up through October-Year end. Zero thought about a new bull trend above 24000 or that we have seen the lows for either 2025 or 2026. Good question is always, “How would you allocate 100k right now?”. 50% short dax, 25% of it levered/options and with the rest I would scalp. trade of the day: Buying the bear trap below yesterday’s low was amazing and so was short 24200. Both buying and selling pressure were so great that market did not run stops above or below the extremes.
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by priceactiontds
2025-05-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls finally got their retest and a higher high. Now is decision time. Can we do another leg up or is this a bull trap and we finally reverse for a deeper pullback over the next days? I heavily favor the latter but for now bears are nowhere to be seen and until then, looking for shorts is suicide. 24300 could be the potential next target if we continue in the bull channel on the 1h chart. current market cycle: broad bull channel key levels: 23000 - 24300 bull case: Bulls got 24000 and we are in a perfect channel upwards. Trade it until broken. I will only scalp this and if we break above this channel or go beyond 24300, it will be without me. Invalidation is below 23300. bear case: I see the odds of this becoming a late bull trap greater than another leg up but so far, bears are doing nothing, so do not look for shorts. Only below 23700 is the current channel broken and we test 23600 next. Below that, 23400 would be next but we closed at the highs and thinking about anything below 23700 is senseless for now. Invalidation is above 24130. short term: Neutral. Pullbacks will likely be good long opportunities until we see bigger selling pressure. Bulls in full control but I will not buy the highs. medium-long term from 2025-05-11: So here is my very rough guess about the next months. This short squeeze is clearly overdone and global macro stuff has most likely already deteriorated a great deal. Down to 20000 over the next weeks and form a big trading range. Up through October-Year end. Zero thought about a new bull trend above 24000 or that we have seen the lows for either 2025 or 2026. Good question is always, “How would you allocate 100k right now?”. 50% short dax, 25% of it levered/options and with the rest I would scalp. trade of the day: Buying Friday’s low at 23788 and hold at least for gap close. The move up was strong enough to continue to hold and market has printed 6 consecutive 1h bull bars.
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by priceactiontds
#202520 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: We are only about 300 points higher than the previous week but market printed the obvious big round number and Friday we had the retest, which did not quite get there but close is always close enough. We are seeing somewhat of an increase in selling pressure but it’s not enough. current market cycle: trading range and very broad bull channel on the weekly time frame key levels for next week: 23000 - 24000 bull case: Best for bulls would be to go sideways and not let market fall below 23400. That’s pretty much all I can come up with for the bulls. Can we go much above 24000? We can but I can not see it happening. If we go higher, it will be without me. I am only interested in seeing an increase in selling pressure and looking for a good short entry. I give bulls 2-3 more days in trying to print 24000 again and if they fail 1-2 more times, they will give up and we can test back down to 23000. It would still be the most bullish outcome if we continue to range between 23000 and 24000. Invalidation is below 22900. bear case: I only want to short this but bears are not doing enough for me to consider it. I hate being early because it correlates big time with being wrong. My line in the sand would be a daily close below 23000 and the daily 20ema. Until bears get that, odds heavily favor the bulls to buy any pullback. So for now, not much to do as a bear. For this year I still expect at least 20000 to get hit again. So if you would force me to give an answer, I would short this with a stop 24600 and wait until we hit 20000 again. If we go into a recession, I would likely hold for lower. Invalidation is above 24100. short term: Neutral. I wait for clear topping signals and more selling pressure. Long scalps against support if bulls want 24000. Same as last week. medium-long term from 2025-05-11: So here is my very rough guess about the next months. This short squeeze is clearly overdone and global macro stuff has most likely already deteriorated a great deal. Down to 20000 over the next weeks/months and form a big trading range. Up through October-Year end. Zero thought about a new bull trend above 24000. We most likely have not seen the lows for either 2025 or 2026. Good question is always, “How would you allocate 100k right now?” 50% short dax, 25% of it levered/options and with the rest I would scalp.
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by priceactiontds
2025-05-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Higher highs and higher lows compared to Tuesday. We are in a triangle and market is refusing to print below 23500. I do think we will see a big move tomorrow. What I don’t think is that we will close Friday at an extreme. If we get to 24000 again, I am very inclined to look to fade it again. Can we close this week below 23000? I gighly doubt that as well. current market cycle: broad bull channel or trading range - doesn’t matter since you trade them the same key levels: 23000 - 24100 bull case: Bulls want 24000 again and I think 23500 is the place where they are happy to scale in. Bears will likely give up tomorrow, if we move above 23650 since they tried 3 times since Monday and market is refusing to go lower. I still think bulls will likely not get much more than 24000. Every time we are in a form of a triangle, I will not write much since market is in balance around it’s midpoint and you should not interpret more into it than it is. We are in a clear bull trend and this sideways correction is better for bulls than bears, since sideways is acceptance and it means bears are not making much money. Invalidation is below 23300. bear case: Bears can not expect 23500 to break all of a sudden tomorrow. If anything, most have to cover if we go above 23650 because we could do 23750 or higher. I don’t have much for the bears. If they somehow break below 23440, it would open up the possibility of 23000 but for now it’s very unlikely. Invalidation is above 24100. short term: Neutral but rather looking for longs than shorts. Clear support 23500 and everyone expects at least a double top or more. medium-long term from 2025-05-11: So here is my very rough guess about the next months. This short squeeze is clearly overdone and global macro stuff has most likely already deteriorated a great deal. Down to 20000 over the next weeks and form a big trading range. Up through October-Year end. Zero thought about a new bull trend above 24000 or that we have seen the lows for either 2025 or 2026. Good question is always, “How would you allocate 100k right now?”. 50% short dax, 25% of it levered/options and with the rest I would scalp. trade of the day: Shorting above 23700 has been profitable all week but I expect it to fail either tomorrow or Friday. Market poked enough at it, that the chance of a breakout above is too big for me to continue to fade against that price.
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by priceactiontds
2025-05-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: If you are a bull and longed anything last week and market hit your 24000 target today, you either took profits at the top and were happy about it or you watched them burn. Now what should we expect when the market hits 24000 the next time? Will bulls willingly hold through another pullback, knowing that it could be 500+ points deep again? I highly doubt that. Usually markets reach their targets and spend more time there or overshoot some to run more stops. Today we did not see any of that, which makes me think this could very well be the exhaustive end of the move → exhaustion gap. current market cycle: broad bull channel or trading range - doesn’t matter since you trade them the same key levels: 22000 - 24100 bull case: Bulls need to find acceptance above 23700 and go sideways here. Another strong move below 23500 would mean the bull trend line is broken for good and market could test lower in search of bigger support. I don’t have any targets above 24000 for the bulls and since the pullback was that deep, I am having a hard time believing we could do anything much higher than 24100. With today’s price action, I expect bulls to retest 24000 and maybe some, just to run stops but I do think most bulls will take profits there and bears will short it aggressively again, since it was so profitable today. Invalidation is below 23300. bear case: Bears did good in closing the gap down to 23588, making this an exhaustion gap. They will likely short again above 23800 since it has been profitable all day. Only a very strong move above 24100+ would force more bears to cover and we could accelerate up. Therefor sideways 23000 - 24000 is my expect price action for this week. Could bears push it down further because we have Opex? No idea and you should never try to ask why markets are doing something because you will never know the answer. Below 23400 I expect 23000 to come fast. Invalidation is above 24100. short term: Neutral. 23000 - 24000 is the range I see for the next days or even weeks, until we get better selling pressure. Trade the bull channel until it’s clearly broken. medium-long term from 2025-05-11: So here is my very rough guess about the next months. This short squeeze is clearly overdone and global macro stuff has most likely already deteriorated a great deal. Down to 20000 over the next weeks and form a big trading range. Up through October-Year end. Zero thought about a new bull trend above 24000 or that we have seen the lows for either 2025 or 2026. Good question is always, “How would you allocate 100k right now?”. 50% short dax, 25% of it levered/options and with the rest I would scalp. trade of the day: Long Globex open was the obvious trade but shorting 24000 was the even better one. I did not think the short was obvious and I took too long to realize it’s strength and then my risk was bigger than I was comfortable with, so I let it go down without me. I caught another long afterwards for 120+ points.
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by priceactiontds
#202519 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: Bull targets are met and we have 4 legs up. 5 even if you count the spikes at the lows. We can do higher but what are the odds? Market is overdue for correction again and given that we easily could do -20% from here, it will be a tough summer. Technically it’s still just bullish but I would not buy up here. Macro-schmackro-wise it’s reasonable to assume that most companies with any US/CN business are worse off than they were before “liberation day”. So my take on this is still a house of cards ready to be blown away by the next small breeze. current market cycle: trading range key levels for next week: 22600 - 24000 bull case: 5 Consecutive bull weeks now. If you buy into this at the high, only God may help you. 24000 is the obvious target and it’s a coin flip if bulls can get it. What would make me turn bull? Nothing. Even if bulls print 24400, I would expect it to crash down in less than 2 weeks. Invalidation is below 22900. bear case: Two very small pullbacks last week and bulls bought it. Market is refusing to go down and we are still making higher highs. Nothing for the bears here until bulls are clearly exhausted and want out. Market turns more neutral with a daily close below 23000 and I think bearish only below 22600. Invalidation is above 24100. short term: Neutral. I wait for clear topping signals and more selling pressure. Long scalps against support if bulls want 24000. medium-long term from 2025-05-11: So here is my very rough guess about the next months. This short squeeze is clearly overdone and global macro stuff has most likely already deteriorated a great deal. Down to 20000 over the next weeks and form a big trading range. Up through October-Year end. Zero thought about a new bull trend above 24000 or that we have seen the lows for either 2025 or 2026. Good question is always, “How would you allocate 100k right now?”. 50% short dax, 25% of it levered/options and with the rest I would scalp.
E
by priceactiontds
2025-05-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Triangle as in other markets, will likely do a strong move tomorrow or Friday. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21000 - 24000 bull case: Bulls see this as a shallow/sideways pullback at the highs and want continuation for a new ath. They are trading far above the daily 20ema and the volume is picking up again. Yesterday bulls bought a big pullback but failed to make higher highs today, so they are likely disappointed. I don’t think many bulls want to stay long when we fail to make higher highs but rather wait for another pullback. So either they get the new ath tomorrow, or risk of running stops below 22979 increases. Invalidation is below 23300. bear case: Bears tried two times now to push the market lower and failed. If we make higher highs again, they will most likely give up and wait to see how high this can go before they short again. Only below 22979 will bears do some damage to the bull case and we could maybe see an acceleration down. For now bears are to weak to print lower lows but bulls are also weak, which is the reason why we printed a triangle. Probably best to do nothing and wait for the strong next move. Invalidation is above 23550. short term: Neutral. Below 23000 I favor the bears and above 23400 we are likly going for 23550 and if that won’t hold, we could do 24000. Markets keep ignoring bad news, so the path of least resistance is likely still up but it’s a guess and nothing you should trade on. Trade whats in front of you and not what you think the market should do. Right now it’s in a tight range waiting for the next impulse. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is over. My rough guess for now is that we will stay inside this trading range 19000 - 24000 for much longer or until economic data becomes the excrementshow I expect it to become over the next months. trade of the day: Shorting EU open and holding for 23200, which was around prior support.
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by priceactiontds
2025-05-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Historic rally we are witnessing. This move is as unlikely, climactic and overdone as can be. Yet we only move higher. Can’t short this yet. Bulls in full control, don’t fight it. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21000 - 24000 bull case: Bulls will likely go for 24000 over the next days. Since no bears are around, try to find any decent pullback to long until it stops working. I think bulls should keep this above the 1h 20ema or we might test down to the bigger trend line around 23000. Invalidation is below 23300. bear case: Bears need consecutive closes below the 1h 20ema. Simple as that. Then they can test the big bull trend line around 23000. Unless we get a huge news bomb bear surprise, this will most likely continue higher or at least the next bigger pullback gets bought. Bears are not making money at all, so don’t try to be the hero bear. Invalidation is above 23550. short term: Neutral. Will only long on a pullback to 15m or 1h 20ema and if market refuses to go down, as it did today with the 15m 20ema. I will become bearish below 23000 but only after market retested the highs and printed a credible top. A big bear news could change that but for now it’s unlikely. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is over. My rough guess for now is that we will stay inside this trading range 19000 - 24000 for much longer or until economic data becomes the shitshow I expect it to become over the next months. trade of the day: Buying near the 15m 20ema.
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by priceactiontds
#202518 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: No one knows if this will be a lower high or a new ath. It does not matter. Buying up here is bad no matter how you look at it. Sure it can be good for a scalp but any bull stop is far away. Until bears start closing gaps, bulls remain in full control. Make no mistake, this is one of those instances where economic reality and market is so far apart that you will look back in hindsight for not going bigger on the shorts once it turns. Can become easily the trade of the year. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19000 - 24000 bull case: Another strong breakout by the bulls on Friday. We are in a clear third leg which could get us to 24000 or become a lower high, you never know in advance. Move is on low volume and climactic that once this turns, it will most likely be violent. There are no reasons for bulls to be up here except a short squeeze. So naturally I doubt we could go much above 24000 if we get there at all. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears still have nothing. No selling pressure what so ever, so path of least resistance is up. The first pullback will likely be bought but that depends on how deep it is and if we get one at all. Bears know this is as very tight and unsustainable bull channel up but that does not matter because market already made 22% from the lows. Which by itself is beyond insane. I do think bears need bad news to ignite the selling. We could easily stay another couple of weeks up here before it turns again. Invalidation is above 24100. short term: Neutral. Getting bullish after this parabolic buy climax is moronic but we are not seeing any selling pressure, so I will just sit on hands. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is over. My rough guess for now is that we will stay inside this trading range 19000 - 24000 for much longer or until economic data becomes the excrementshow I expect it to become over the next months
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by priceactiontds
2025-04-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Still favoring doing a lower high print but we are close enough to 23000 that market can go higher. No more obvious resistance. A big maybe is the bear gap up to 23050 but that’s a gamble I am not willing to take. Today should have marked the start of the reversal with the huge bear spike but the bull reversal was beyond my comprehension. Can turn bear only below 22300 but I don’t need to long this either. Will only look for shorts on this, that’s why it’s full bear mode from here on. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21000 - 24000 bull case: Bulls printed a higher April high and closed the month at the highs, which is a strong buy signal going into Friday and next week. The bull trend line from 19000 is valid until broken but the move up is so climactic and in a tight channel, that it’s tough to buy the highs but until bears trap late bulls and get follow-through after a sell spike, bulls are in BTFD mode and it continues to be profitable. Invalidation is below 21300. bear case: Bears don’t have much. Today could have been the final flag and we top out soon but we will only know once we drop below 22300 and continue down. For me this is a clear 3 legs up now and I have zero interest in buying up here. Big economies are most likely already in recessions and I think Q1 2025 will be the last decent quarter this year and from here on it’s downhill. Hard. Next big bucks will be made to the down side. Invalidation is above 23100. short term: Neutral. Could do 23000 or not. Today was end of month and I will wait and see what the us markets do tomorrow. Dax will be closed. Expecting a huge reversal any day now. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not. trade of the day: Selling 22700, decent double top and was good for 300 points down. Had to be mentally flexible and not try to hold short while market did a v-reversal. I fought it too much today.
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by priceactiontds
#202517 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: This is a short squeeze and very little could concinve me otherwise. Does it matter? No. We are going higher and until bears print a big bear bar again, bulls remain in full control. 8 Consecutive daily bull bars is always something special. Above 22700 there is no reason not to go for 24000. current market cycle: Trading range - bull trend on the 1h tf key levels: 21500 - 24000 bull case: Big breakout on Wednesday with follow-through. Bulls want to go above the start of the panic selling down at 22735ish. If they do, I doubt there will be much resistance until we print a new ath and even then the first pullback will likely be bought again. The volume is atrocious compared to the selling weeks but that is unimportant. Market is going higher, low volume or not. Stops are not dependent on volume. Below 21900 most bulls will likely think the squeeze is over and secure profits. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears last hope is that prior support turned resistance and we stay below 22700. How likely is that? Given that we have not seen a red daily close for 2 weeks, very very unlikely. What would change my mind? Daily big bear bar closing on it’s low below 21900. Nothing else. We have a clear bull trend line and until that is clearly broken, bulls remain in full control. I do think this is a gift to late bulls who did not sell yet. If I had long term longs, I’d thank the lord for a second opportunity to exit them. We will see lower lows below 19000 this year. Zero doubt. 22700 short term: Neutral. Bullish above 22700 for 24000 and bearish only below 21900 on very strong momentum. Bears have turned this bearish again only with a break of the bull trend line and gap close to 21400. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is over. We could still print a lower high below 23000 and go down to 19000 or lower but that would rather be a very shallow broad bear channel. Yes, it can be shallow due to marginally lower highs and lower lows but broad because the range is huge. Can we go much below 19000 this year? Only with a deep recession. We could already be in one but for now it’s unlikely. US tariffs will duck excrements up but it will take more time to manifest.
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by priceactiontds
2025-04-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls in full control, next target is the Globex to 22535 or 22586 on the daily chart. Volume is atrocious and we are in a global trade war but hey, let’s go for another ath I guess. This will crash down to 19000 and lower again, zero doubt in my mind. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21000 - 23000 bull case: Bulls want 22535 or 22586 next. Above that there is no reason not to go for 24000. Nothing more to say about this tbh. Measured move from the lows to spike high is 24375 and yes, I think it’s beyond insane and yes I also think we could get there over next days. Invalidation is below 21700. bear case: Bears need prices below 21780. Simple as that. They are not doing anything right now but any decently bad news could get us there. If they print 21780, it only means something if they then close the Global gap to 21674. So far away and unlikely that we get a strong bear trend tomorrow. Market will probably need to range first before we could maybe sell again. Invalidation is above 22600. short term: Neutral. Having a hard time believing we can do another bull trend up tomorrow. I expect sideways into the weekend. Anything below 21800 is a bear surprise to me medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the bear trap 21900, betting on a higher low and that the big globex gap stays open. I traded it horribly and went long way too late but it was still enough to went green on the day.
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by priceactiontds
2025-04-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bullish. I want to believe that the market can not go above 21700 but 5 consecutive daily bull bars say duck yo puts. Above 21700 no more resistance until 22000. If bulls fail, down we go to likely another higher low above 21250. Everything below 21200 is a big bear surprise. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20000 - 22000 bull case: Bulls are heavily favored if they break above 21700. There is no more resistance then, since we would then be making higher highs and today we closed above the daily 20ema. 21480 must hold, otherwise this was a bull trap and we could continue to range between 21000 - 21700. Measured move up from today is exactly 20000. Invalidation is below 21470. bear case: Bears not doing enough and even bad news could not get follow-through selling going. Above 21700 last bears have to cover because we will likely go for 22000 again. If they somehow manage to get below 21470, this continues inside the current trading range 21000 - 21700. Bears can still argue that even the 5 consecutive daily bull bars happened but bulls are not advancing much and they can not close a daily bar above 21500. EU close was 21439. So very low probability that 21700 will hold and we go down again. Invalidation is above 21700. short term: Neutral. Want to lean bullish but I won’t buy into big previous resistance. Above 700 on good momentum I’m long for 22000. Shorts only below 21470. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long the breakout above 21365. Clear breakout with immediate follow-through. 15m tf or higher was way better to trade than lower ones.
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by priceactiontds
#202516 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral but below 21300 really bearish if the selling is decent. I do think we saw a double top bear flag past 2 weeks and are going down from here. Invalidation is clear, above 21700 I am wrong and this could go much higher because it likely means that bears are giving up. Below 21300 I expect 21000 to be hit and if a news bomb helps, much lower again. Market now failed 2 weeks at the prior upper bull trend line from 2023-05, 50% retracement for this bear trend and the daily 20ema. 3 big reasons why this will likely continue to be resistance. current market cycle: bear trend but very likely that we have seen the lows and have transitioned to a trading range - will have a definitive answer next week. key levels: 19000 - 21700 bull case: Decently bullish week but 21500 was and still is huge resistance. Bulls could not close anything above it and since they tried for 3 days staight, chances for them are not high that we will get the breakout above next week. Until bears can make lower lows below 21100, bulls are in control of this, since they have printed 3 consecutive bullish days and we are up 12% from the lows. Their only target now is to close a strong 1h bar above 21700 and then I think the last bears will cover and this goes straight to 22000. Invalidation is below 21100. bear case: Bears are keeping this a lower high but if market continues to poke at 21700, eventually it will break and more bears will cover. Bears have the 3 big arguments on their side: 50% retracement held, daily 20ema held and we have not made higher highs and so this could very well just be a giant bear flag ready to break down over the next days. Volume was atrocious last week, compared to the 2 prior weeks and next week we will likely seen a big move again. For now there are no positive news for the bulls and the trade war is in full swing. Even if we go above 21700, my base case is a revisit of 19000 or lower for the year. Invalidation is above 21605. short term: Neutral. Breakout is imminent and right now I very slightly favor the bears but market is currently more neutral than anything else. Bullish above 21700 and bearish below 21300. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not.
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by priceactiontds
2025-04-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market does not have much more room inside the current structure. I’m favoring a huge bear trend tomorrow but until we strongly close a 1h bar below 21100, that bias does not make much sense. Lower highs and higher lows. Wait for the breakout. current market cycle: trading range or continuation of the bear trend - answer will be given on Thursday(?), maybe. Wasn’t given on Tu/We as expected, so let’s see what tomorrow brings key levels: 19000 - 22000 bull case: Bulls still above the 4h 20ema but too weak to print 21500. They are making higher lows but tomorrow, one side will most likely give up and I still favor the bears. Bulls could do the print above 21500 and retest 21700 then, if we go strongly above, we would see a short squeeze for the ages. Below 21100 bulls have to pray 21000 holds or we could go much lower to 20700 or even lower. Invalidation is below 21000. bear case: Bears need lower lows below 21100 and most certainly can not let the market get above 21500. That sum’s it up nicely I’d say. I have doubts we can close this week far from 21000. So shorts above 21300 with stop 21500 are still decent. Invalidation is above 21500. short term: Neutral. Bearish above 21300. No longs from me. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting 21500. Perfect double top.
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by priceactiontds