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Micro-DAX Futures

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FDXS1! trade ideas

Weekly Analysis 29th Nov - 4th Dec - horizon after Black FridayFriday's Black Friday introduced significant valuations also on the markets and we met with large anomalies also from the perspective of the Option flow, which we automatically analyze with our software. While we observe a strong directional movement already during the Globex session, it is not worth fighting the trend and it is much safer to try to join it wisely. Anyway, the Gamma Intraday strategy assumes that in the event of breaking the extreme level, we do not fight the trend but try to join the movement. Gamma -1 was broken in the markets during the Overnight / Globex session. From a medium-term perspective, it's worth going back to the Virgin VPOC levels to assess the potential for moves. The market will try to retest them, the only question is when it will happen. Let's look at the situation on the main instruments: DAX - a clear downward trend that was deepened during Friday's session. The price is close to the 14946 level, so it should be retested sooner rather than later. The remaining Virgin VPOC levels are above the current price, showing upside potential on the German index - starting at 15,909 with a potential to 16,158. S & P500 - Friday's panic on the American stock market may only be the beginning of the sell-off. It has been known for a long time that the FED has been pumping sky-high amounts of money for a long time, which causes continuous increases in the S & P500. From the Virgin VPOCs perspective, there is a lot of potential for declines through 4471.50, 4310.25 and ending at 4234.25. This does not negate long-term gains, but it is definitely worth keeping an eye on the downside opportunities. Gold - despite declines in the main stock exchange indices, we would expect gold to increase significantly in line with the inverse correlation. However, we saw a moderate drop in price on Friday's session and only the end showed the demand entry. Relatively close is the 1763 level, one of the Virgin VPOCs below the current gold price (at the time of writing). The growth potential of Gold looks much more interesting due to Virgin VPOC points at 1817.2 through 1863, 1875.7 with potential at 1885.2 Crude oil - a clear discount on "black gold" on Black Friday, which will surely please drivers at gas stations;) From the perspective of potential, there is a lot of room for growth, with the price reaching 81.37 and 84.22.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by skyline-trader
Short FDAX 15950I was asked to give more meaningful descriptions. You know I am just an engineer and usually in my mailing lists I just write ‘long 100’ and at exit ‘flat 120’ without any explanation at all. Most signals are time critical so writing explanations would cost the costumers money. But I will try to give you a better understanding. My signals are generated by automated trading systems. So I often have to go into the source code to figure out what was the deciding factor for the signal. The systems generate about 10 to 20 signals a day so debugging can easily become a full time job. But in this case it was pretty simple to sort out what overruled the rivaling factors. It was a chart pattern that my colleagues and I named in german “hängender Schwanz”. I don’t know the exact translation but it means that the candlesticks show a period of preludium, followed by calmness with small candles in a clear trend, followed by a climax with high volume , a calm eye of the storm, followed by uncertainty, a reversion to a gradually falling slope and then an inversion into the opposite direction while repeating the whole move with reversed signs but some important differences. YM 35000+ was the eye of the storm. YM 34000 to 35000 was the uncertainty and now we flow into the inversion. FDAX is dominated by YM, so the same applies here adjusted by local factors like currency, time zone, monetary policy etc. The next few days into autumn will let us know if this is just a minor correction or a move over some month. During the first days of October we saw small rebounds. In November until today we saw a decoupling between Europe and the U.S. due to exchange rates and central bank policy. In the last couple of days this delta shrank again. Today we see the Thanks Giving Party, that can last until monday.
EShort
by FDAXtrading
Short FDAX 16020I was asked to give more meaningful descriptions. You know I am just an engineer and usually in my mailing lists I just write ‘long 100’ and at exit ‘flat 120’ without any explanation at all. Most signals are time critical so writing explanations would cost the costumers money. But I will try to give you a better understanding. My signals are generated by automated trading systems. So I often have to go into the source code to figure out what was the deciding factor for the signal. The systems generate about 10 to 20 signals a day so debugging can easily become a full time job. But in this case it was pretty simple to sort out what overruled the rivaling factors. It was a chart pattern that my colleagues and I named in german “hängender Schwanz”. I don’t know the exact translation but it means that the candlesticks show a period of preludium, followed by calmness with small candles in a clear trend, followed by a climax with high volume , a calm eye of the storm, followed by uncertainty, a reversion to a gradually falling slope and then an inversion into the opposite direction while repeating the whole move with reversed signs but some important differences. YM 35000+ was the eye of the storm. YM 34000 to 35000 was the uncertainty and now we flow into the inversion. FDAX is dominated by YM, so the same applies here adjusted by local factors like currency, time zone, monetary policy etc. The next few days into autumn will let us know if this is just a minor correction or a move over some month. During the first days of October we saw small rebounds. In November until today we saw a decoupling between Europe and the U.S. due to exchange rates and central bank policy. In the last couple of days this delta shrank again. Short FDAX 16020
EShort
by FDAXtrading
1
DAX on beginning of new week - based on Options Flow (Gamma)Going to the right, DAX tests investors' nerves and endurance. What can the beginning of a new week bring to us? Overall, we are high in the context (which does not in any way negate further increases for the sake of clarity!). Below the current price level, we have several Virgin VPOC levels, which even extend to the region of 15,200. But the only thing is that EVERY time the index will return there. Not necessarily now;) In the context of Intraday trading, breaking the Gamma +0.25 level determined automatically based on the Options market - gives the opportunity to play a Long with a target of up to Gamma +0.5. We play it carefully because of Dax's trailblazing in such high places. The exit to Gamma +0.5, because as you already know from previous analyzes, this is a very strong Intraday resistance level. Similar to playing Short as a mirror image of the described move - after Gamma -0.25 goes down, there is an opportunity for Short. Target is Gamma -0.5 (again - strong Intraday support level), but this time we are watching whether there will be a price reaction and a rebound - another opportunity for Long as the Gamma -0.5 level is in the volume zone determined automatically by VSA Scanner. According to the Gamma strategy - a bounce from Gamma -0.5 most often ends statistically at the Pivot level. Another trading opportunity is a price breakdown at the level determined automatically - Extreme Low of Day (determined from the Options and Volatility market) with the target at the extreme Gamma -1. Here, we also expect a price reaction and a position reversal in Long, where the presence of the volume zone (determined by the VSA Scanner) is an additional strengthening of the signal strength. The Options Market helps forecast movements that are yet to come in derivatives (including Futures Contracts). Therefore, it is a powerful weapon in the Trader's arsenal and is available to everyone;)
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by skyline-trader