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4SMCI trade ideas

SMCI Bull run overWe ended the fifth impulsive wave a lot higher and the ongoing collapse is nowhere near ending. The bull market is well and truly over for SMCI. Trade the charts, not the news. I did bring this to your attention 3 weeks before the news of potential accounting fraud became apparent. I did warn bag holders not to buy the dip - look my related post. Instead I got hate and dislikes for my post. It's like people don't want to hear the truth. Don't love anything that won't love you back, speculative assets included. The truth is that risk management is key to preserving wealth. I was against buying the dip, there is a potential long trade to be had at way lower levels. However, in light of the accounting issues this company is in deep trouble and people are fighting to get to the exit door. Not financial advice, just my thoughts. Do what's best for you, if you want to buy the dip then good luck to you.
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by NoFOMO_
4
SMCI $60 EASY THEN MUCH MORE.. READ THE IDEA. pls.... SMCI IS THE ONE I AM BETTING WILL POP THE MOST. The delays in filling are nothing more than growing pains. Read this report entirely, so that you get the idea. MSCI fundamentals are as strong as ever. The rest is secondary, it is sales and revenue all that matters, the delays have been explained. The endorsement is NVDA, the super star of companies. The Hindenburg Report ruffled feathers, the feathers of limelight seekers at the SEC, the 3 minutes of fame. A nothing burger in the end. Meanwhile, what a gift. Finally a lotto ticket with great odds. SMCI Super Micro - regulatory filing this and that, what maters is how good their products are and how much they have sold. The answers to these to premises, is a lot. And a lot means return on investment. The delay filling is likely the product of extreme difficulty in reporting compliance. Did you know this same issue is facing thousands of companies around the world. It seems that the global IQ has declined, hehe, no no for real, and number crunchers need to be extremely analytical, the things is that analyticals make much more in other professions, and what is left is deficient. I know full well that SMCI will file what it needs to file, but I also know their products are second to none, and that means caching for the shares. The background and preamble: Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) is delaying its filing of the annual 10-K report due to several issues: Internal Control Assessment: SMCI has stated that additional time is needed for management to complete its assessment of the design and operating effectiveness of its internal controls over financial reporting as of June 30, 2024 Accounting and Financial Reporting Concerns: A report by Hindenburg Research alleged accounting manipulation, including premature revenue recognition and undisclosed related-party transactions. These allegations have raised concerns about the company's financial practices and contributed to the delay Regulatory and Legal Scrutiny: The delay has attracted regulatory attention, including a non-compliance notice from Nasdaq, which requires SMCI to file the report or submit a compliance plan within 60 days from the notice date. Additionally, there is an ongoing investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice into the company These factors have collectively contributed to SMCI's decision to delay filing its annual report. Key Dates Original due date: August 29, 2024 Non-compliance notice date: September 17, 2024 60-day deadline: Approximately November 16, 2024 (60 days from the notice date) Maximum potential extension: Approximately February 25, 2025 (180 days from the original due date). SMCI Potential Accounting Issues The delay comes amid allegations of accounting irregularities: On August 27, 2024, short-seller Hindenburg Research published a report accusing SMCI of "glaring accounting red flags" and engaging in a "fraudulent revenue recognition scheme" Hindenburg claimed SMCI was prematurely recording revenue for equipment that could not be delivered or installed, and booking revenue for faulty or incomplete products I beleive that SMCI is growing so fast, and that massive growth ia generating issues in the process, issues that many companies face, however, in the case of SMCI considering Hindenburgs Opportunistic take on markets, saw SMCI and NVDA at a fractal pivot point and the took advantage, however, as SMCI is an illiquid stock, especially before the split, they had to put another bullet to tranquilize the herd and now cause it to come back and buy all the shares bach much faster giving them no change to adjust. Like what just happened to tesla for example. All these accusations lead to ..... Regulatory Scrutiny. Regulatory Scrutiny The filing delay has attracted regulatory attention: SMCI received a notification from Nasdaq on September 17, 2024 stating that the company is not in compliance with Nasdaq listing rule 5250(c)(1), which requires timely filing of periodic reports with the SEC On September 26, 2024, it was reported that the U.S. Department of Justice had initiated an investigation into the company So here is where we are.... SMCI is the working partner for NVDA and Charles Liang seems like a smart man. The SMCI servers sell super well. I beleved SMCI is a super clean entity, and that they will comply with fillings, but what is much more relevant to me is cash made, and cash made with SMCI seems huge.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by imcnf5c4ff
18
10/30/24 - $smci - Quick comment on mkt implications10/30/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:SMCI Quick comment on mkt implications - trick, no treat for smci so here's the treat ex. scmi... - an nvda top 5 customer has implications for nvda that probably keep it in a short-term holding period (upside "capped" vs. other mag 7 that report e.g. meta and msft - beats - tonight) - there is SO much demand for nvda chips that even if a top 5 drops out, u guys realize msft, meta, amzn, googl, elon... will take 100% of that demand - so what happens here is that the mkt will probably "overly" reward a meta or msft beat bc the flows/ implications of index higher rotate less incrementally to nvda and chips (even tho you should be buying tsm, avgo as well as nvda)... and to the mega/ googl/ msft complex. this means index higher. thought it's important to mention. V
NASDAQ:SMCI
by VROCKSTAR
2
Incoming 40% correction for Super Micro Computer, Inc.On the above 4 day chart price action has rallied 270% since January. And 3000% !!! since June 2022. It is somewhat unfortunate to see so many long ideas at the moment. Motley Fool June 30th: “1 Top Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock to Buy Before It Soars 70%, According to Loop Capital” “Loop Capital thinks Supermicro is going to $1,500” Madness. Why bearish? Broken market structure. It is very clear to see, price action has broken the last higher low AND confirmed it as resistance. You can see this more clearly on the daily chart below. Double top bearish divergence. On the 3 week chart below price action prints a RSI lower high (red arrows) with a higher high in price action. On this time frame an important trend shift is indicated. Is it possible price action continues to rise? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww 1 day broken market structure 3 week bearish divergence
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by without_worries
51
SMCI due for a run?With earnings roughly 24 hours away, SMCI could be worth a watch. They will often drop around earnings and then put on a nice run, but with the RSI and MACD both looking like they are at a reasonable area as well as the crazy ongoing demand for chips SMCI might be worth a watch. I'll probably take a punt on it, but with a super tight stop loss in case it heads downwards. Could use a conditional buy order to enter on a turn-around trail. eg if it goes up x% then buy. Either way, looks like some upside if they can sort out their issues.
NASDAQ:SMCI
by zAngus
5
Earnings In 2 WeeksI think this one could run - 1. Looks like we about to get a buy rating on the weekly prior to earnings. 2. The volumne gap goes all the way up to $75 3. Open gaps up around $51, $66, and $85. 4. Looks like an inverse head and shoulders. 5. Will start slowly adding lotto calls 6. 11/06/2024 after market ER? 7. Perhaps they fix their 10k filing 8. Short squeeze imminent? 9. I would love it to get to $40-$44 before buying (may start adding this week despite) Lemme know what you think - GLTA.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by sonidofranko
4
Riding the AI WaveSuper Micro Computer is building strong bullish momentum, with a gap forming at the $45.00 level. A break through the $67.10 resistance level would confirm further upward movement, pushing the stock toward the daily resistance at $101.40, and eventually the weekly resistance at $122.45. With a favorable 6.21 risk-to-reward ratio, this trade offers a compelling opportunity to capture significant upside while maintaining a stop-loss at $35.70 to manage risk. As the demand for high-performance computing, AI, and cloud infrastructure continues to grow, SMCI’s leadership in these sectors strengthens its bullish case. The company’s consistent innovation in server and data center solutions positions it well to capture future growth, supporting its trajectory toward the $122.45 target. NASDAQ:SMCI
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by The_Trading_Mechanic
9
SMCI at a Critical Support: Will Buyers Return?In the daily time frame, SMCI is approaching a key support zone, highlighted in green. This area previously acted as strong resistance, with several attempts to break above it. Although the price hasn’t returned to this zone yet, I believe once it does, buyers could step in again. This level has proven significant before, and if the price revisits this support, it could present a potential buying opportunity. Keep an eye on this zone, as it may signal a shift in momentum if buyers come back. This version reflects that the price hasn’t yet revisited the support zone.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by WaveRiders2
SMCI: Stock Split with Chart UpdateSMCI had a stock split, so I have to update this chart. Light Fundamental: It is a stock called SMCI (or Super Mico Computer). It is a US company that makes super powerful computers and servers. The world needs servers to help run things like big websites, apps, and AI. The stock price fell by half. So, it is selling at a discount for what it is really worth. So, it is a good chance to buy it. Technicals: Gartley-like pattern diagonal support engulfing bullish pattern with d3 volume and volume confirmation a-b-c completion at a 78.2% fib pullback Entry is above the weekly engulfing bullish candle at 475.44. Target is, tentatively, 1500. Note: preparing for either an election rally or a Christmas rally in stocks
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by Rocketman
Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Time to buy in after a -70% drop!Since our first analysis a while ago, we've been inching closer and closer to our target area on $SMCI. Since then, we've seen a price drop of 40%, which is far from irrelevant, with the stock retracing nearly 70% from its peak. We're witnessing a clear and recurring pattern here—what we call the "staircase to hell." Each push to a level has been met with rejection, which is exactly why we see a buying opportunity forming. We are now making our first bid here as a market entry. This is intended to be a swing trade that we plan to carry into 2025, with a target of reaching previous highs again. Therefore, we're not worried about getting a "perfect" entry within 1-2% but instead setting a DCA bid a bit lower for an optimal position if NASDAQ:SMCI comes down further. Below the market entry, there's an important Fibonacci cluster that combines the 200% target of Wave C, the 78.6% retracement of Wave (2), and a target for Wave ((v)), all aligning well. With these multiple levels coinciding, there's a strong possibility we will see the price reach this zone. If so, we’ll place another bid to buy more shares. If NASDAQ:SMCI manages to flip the first resistance, we expect it to move up quickly. As we always say, patience is the key to successful swing trading—don’t let greed or fear cloud your decisions 🤝.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by freeguy_by_wmc
10
SUPERMICRO. BUY WHEN THERE'S BLOOD IN THE STREETS.The worse the market - the greater the opportunity to profit it gives. This seems to be the credo of contrarian, or counter investing. Nathan Rothschild, a 19th-century British financier and member of the Rothschild banking family, is credited with saying: “The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.” Whether or not Rothschild actually uttered this famous line, it reveals an important truth about betting against market psychology. When prices are falling and markets are shaky, bold contrarian investing can yield big returns. Key Takeaways 👉 Contrarian investing is a strategy that goes against prevailing market trends or sentiment. 👉 The idea is that markets are subject to herd behavior, fueled by fear and greed, which causes markets to periodically overprice or underprice. 👉 “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful,” said Warren Buffett. This phrase embodies a similar philosophy, perhaps just in a slightly more succinct form. Historically, market panics can be a great opportunity for cheap investing. Most d̶u̶m̶b̶a̶s̶s̶ ̶ people want to have ONLY WINNERS in their portfolios, but as Warren Buffett warned, “In the stock market, you pay a very high price for a happy consensus.” In other words, if the crowd is unanimous in agreeing on an investment decision, it’s probably NOT A GOOD ONE. Going Against the dumbass Crowd Contrarians, as the name suggests, try to do the opposite of the crowd. They get excited when a good company’s stock price drops sharply and unfairly. They swim against the tide and assume that the market is usually wrong at both extreme lows and highs. The more prices fluctuate, the more delusional they think the rest of the market is. Contrarian investors believe that people say the market is going up when and why they are fully invested and have no further buying power. At that point, the market is peaking and should be going down. When people predict a decline, they are already sold out, and at that point, the market can only go up. For this reason, contrarian thinking is great for figuring out whether a particular stock has actually bottomed. Bad times build wealth 😬 Contrarian investors have historically made their best investments during times of market turmoil. During the 1987 crash (also known as Black Monday), the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the US fell 22% in one day. 😬 During the 1973–74 bear market, the market lost 45% in about 22 months. 😬 The September 11, 2001 attacks also caused the market to fall significantly. I AM CERTAINLY NOT AN ADVOCATE OF VIOLANCE But the list of facts goes on and on. And these were the times when contrarians found their best investments. 😬 The 1973–1974 bear market gave Warren Buffett the opportunity to buy a stake in the Washington Post Company, an investment that subsequently rose more than 100 times its purchase price. That’s before dividends. Buffett said at the time that he was buying the company’s shares at a deep discount, as evidenced by the fact that the company could “sell (the Post’s) assets to any of 10 buyers for at least $400 million, probably considerably more.” more." Meanwhile, the Washington Post's market cap at the time was just $80 million. In 2013, the company was sold to Amazon CEO and founder Jeff Bezos for $250 million in cash. 😬 After the 9/11 attacks, the world stopped moving for a while. Let's say you were investing in Boeing (BA), one of the world's largest commercial aircraft makers, during that time. Boeing's stock bottomed out just a year after 9/11, but since then, it has more than quadrupled in the next five years. Clearly, while 9/11 may have temporarily soured market sentiment on the airline industry, those who had done their research and were willing to bet on Boeing's survival were well rewarded. 😬 Sir John Templeton ran the Templeton Growth Fund from 1954 to 1992, when he sold it. For every $10,000 invested, into an A-share fund in 1954 would have grown to $2 million by 1992 with dividends reinvested, or an annual return of about 14.5%. Templeton was a pioneer of international investing. He was also a serious contrarian investor, buying into countries and companies when, according to his principle, they reached their "POINT OF MAX. PESSIMISM." Four years later, he sold the stock for a huge profit. The Risks of Contrarian Investing While the most famous contrarian investors bet big money, went against the grain, and succeeded, they also did a lot of research to make sure the crowd was wrong. So when a stock takes a big dive, it doesn't prompt the contrarian to place an immediate buy order, but to figure out what caused the stock to fall and whether the price drop is justified. Knowing which distressed stocks to buy and sell once the company recovers is a major concern for contrarian investors. This can lead to stocks that deliver much higher returns than usual. However, being overly optimistic about hyped stocks can have the opposite effect. Final Points. 👉 While each of these successful contrarian investors has their own strategy for evaluating potential investments, they all have one thing in common: they let the market give them deals instead of chasing them. 👉 What's next for Supermicro stock? Who knows, who knows.. It's very individual and depends on what you're looking for... opportunity or denial. 👉 The current 6-month return on investment in Supermicro stock is -58.44% - a pretty rare occurrence for SMCI. This has never happened before.. even in times of WFC, Covid-19 or smth else. Indeed, several times 6-months returns were quite negative for SMCI. Then Supermicro shares doubled or even tripled in price in just several next years. What principle and style of investing do you adhere to?! Please share your comments and feedback in the box below! 👇👇
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by Pandorra
SMCI: Are we back in business??Super Micro Computer just broke over the LH 1 trendline holding since July 15th and is about to turn bullish again on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.296, MACD = -2.380, ADX = 24.033). Coming off a double bottom (DB), the only resistance left before the bullish trend is resumed, is the 1D MA50 (untested since July 17th). The 1D RSI already made its breakout over its own R level. When the 1D MA50 breaks, target the LH2 trendline (TP = 78.00). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by InvestingScope
1