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EURUSD trade ideas

EURUSD:ECB lifts its cards, neutral rate at 2%.By Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst The European Central Bank has stopped playing the guessing game and has officially revealed its “best-kept secret” : the neutral interest rate for the euro zone stands at around 2%, with a range of between 1.75% and 2.25%. This figure, which has been the subject of speculation for years, now marks the way forward for monetary policy in an environment where investors, and especially EURUSD traders, are seeking clarity amid volatility. For those who follow the markets closely, this announcement is key. The neutral rate is that level at which monetary policy exerts neither expansionary nor restrictive effect on the economy. At the current 2.75% after the last cut, the ECB statement makes it clear that, if economic conditions hold, the process of cuts will close in the summer at around 2%. This would imply three additional 25 basis point cuts over the next few meetings, which in our view is a firm step towards normalization. Philip Lane, the ECB's chief economist, has previously stated that the debate on the neutral rate is becoming less relevant as rates approach a level at which they no longer hold back growth. In an environment of low inflation - with the target achievable in the summer - the central bank focuses on what is really necessary to sustain growth without overheating the economy. Luis de Guindos, for his part, has reiterated that although the concept of the neutral rate is very useful from an analytical point of view, in practice the ECB relies on other metrics, such as the bank survey, to set the price of money. Christine Lagarde, always at the center of ECB communication, helped dispel uncertainty by raising expectations of cuts, pointing out that the current path of monetary policy clearly points to a 2% floor by the summer. This clarity is especially valuable for traders, as it allows us to adjust our investment strategies in the EURUSD and fixed income markets. This data is a beacon of stability for the Euro. An environment in which rates are expected to converge to 2% suggests a potential revaluation of the Euro against the dollar, as investors move towards assets that offer a margin of stability. The projection of a more robust EURUSD is in line with the expectation that, from summer onwards, the ECB will stop cutting and stabilize at that neutral level, which could reshape the dynamics of capital flows in the eurozone. On the other hand, from a macro point of view, this decision reinforces the idea that the ECB is confident in the European economy's ability to achieve a balance between growth and inflation. Traders should note that in a scenario of rate stability at 2%, the euro is likely to benefit from a more predictable environment, which in turn would positively affect cross-border trade and investment. Technical Analysis Looking at the chart, the EURUSD has been in a downtrend that diverted it to a low of $1.01766 on January 13, currently facing a range that positions it between this low and a ceiling of $1.05327. Currently trading at $1.03048, the POC zone is located in the area of $1.05 per euro. Looking at the pressure of the last few days, the RSI is currently oversold at 45.23%. The 3 smoothed averages reinforce the idea of a price sideways movement in a price zone that coincides with that of January 15 and can be seen on the chart. The current pressure seems to have been contained and has generated a strong resistance in the $1.03 area. Therefore, the data is consistent with a possible bullish bounce in the previously mentioned direction. Employing Fibbonacci, the price is below the 38.20% of the last strong retracement that pushed the price to lows, so there is plenty of room left until reaching the 61.80% ($1.04094) which is slightly above the checkpoint area. In summary, the ECB's announcement not only clears up doubts, but also sets a clear framework for the near future: the rate cutting cycle is expected to conclude in the summer, leaving rates at a neutral 2% level. For the EURUSD and for markets in general, this is a sign of stability that will undoubtedly influence investment decisions and trading strategies in the coming months. With the clarity offered today by the ECB, it is time to adjust positions and prepare strategies for a horizon of greater certainty. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Long
by ActivTrades
GpPa Model / EUR/USD Dynamic Limit Order Long EntryGpPa Analysis / Entry Justification under the GpPa Model *The Analysis is the same as the conservative and dynamic entry* The main entry is conservative, so, the analysis remains beside this part: A long entry can be considered at the strong minimum, but I'll not go too far with the SL or TP. It can be used as a hedge if you're holding a position that performs well as the US Dollar does (like Magnificent 7 or other shorts in x/USD currency). Beside that, I'll consider this position the riskier of all. 1. Liquidity a. Liquidity Related to Structure The price’s liquidity is distributed within a relatively narrow range, marked by several highs and lows and a false manipulative bias (indicated as internal liquidity in a lighter color). This liquidity distribution suggests a long-term and mid-term bearish trend (notably from the M3 and M1 timeframes backward) that has weakened in the short term, evolving into a chaotic structure. b. Liquidity Related to Directionality The diagonal liquidity—responsible for driving the price to manipulate highs and lows—is more pronounced at the highs. However, the directional bias appears to favor mitigating the lows. c. Decision Regarding Liquidity Recent price action indicates the development of a retracement. This retracement could either continue the bearish trend or lead to a range-bound structure due to an exhausted bearish trend. 2. Trajectory / Direction (Structure) a. Coefficient of Trajectory, Direction, and Validation (-41.20%; -58.80%) 19.10% These coefficients confirm the signals derived from the liquidity analysis. While the price shows a clear long-term and mid-term bearish trend, the opposing validation factor may indicate an exhaustion of the retracement—or even of the trend itself—thus reinforcing the possibility of a range-bound market. 3. Entries a. Conservative Entry The VWAP is placed alongside an additional FRVP at the major fractal preceding the M1 structure to define a conservative entry. Once positioned, this setup confirms the bearish character and the established range, allowing the identification of a high-probability entry at the manipulated high. This entry is validated by: - Long-term volume - A high-probability VWAP zone for shorts within the range - A long-term order block (M1) i. Coefficients of the Conservative Entry - Fractal Quality Coefficient: 50.00% - Entry Quality Coefficient: -19.82% - Entry Probability: -50.00% - Stop Loss Probability: -100.00% - Take Profit Probability: -50.00% The entry is highly likely to be mitigated over the long term, with the conservative analysis expiring on March 25, 2025. Although the quality is decent, it is not optimal since the evaluation was based solely on the VWAP. The Stop Loss is set at 2 ATR from the last manipulated high (calculated from the median of the data) and is strongly protected by volume, two highs, two order blocks, and the VWAP level. This setup reflects an extremely optimistic scenario for the euro, which does not fully align with recent fundamental news—suggesting that a significant move would be necessary to breach this level. The Take Profit should be seen not as a final objective but rather as a target for partial profit-taking and for moving the stop to breakeven once the objective is reached. 4. Other Comments - The price is currently in a zone that attracts little interest from swing traders. As of February 10, 2025, the price is in a well-developed retracement, which discourages taking shorts lightly. - A long trade might be considered at the manipulated minimum below the structure; however, given the euro’s recent fundamentals and the prevailing long-term and mid-term bearish trend, such a trade should only be executed with carefully adjusted Stop Loss and Take Profit levels. Do you like my analysis? Follow me on social media: thewayofrichie Let's trade, Richie
Long
by ricardo_ndns
EURUSD will Grow to TopHi traders what do you think about EURUSD suggestion in comments. EUR/USD Price looking we're noticing a gap that's almost filled. now Price will Grow To Top. Gaps can often act as key levels, Gap is nearing completion. Gaps typically get filled but now the price will break to the resistance. Resistance we're suggesting that once the gap is filled, the price could face resistance at higher levels. we’ve identified two targets First Target: 1.04550 2nd Target 1.05220. if you like this analysis please support my work and fallow thanks for Love.
Long
by FxJennefir
EUR/USD - Bearish Bias🔹 4H Timeframe: • Still in a bearish structure → Major sell confirmations. • Took out buy-side liquidity (BSL) and inducement (IDM) before mitigating a supply zone → Bearish intent remains. 🔹 30M Timeframe: • Bearish structure confirmed, but price is forming a range inside the bearish structure. • This range has built a bullish structure, likely a manipulation move to strike supply before continuing down. • Took out SSL & IDM within the bullish structure → Tapped a bullish order block inside the range. 🔹 5M Timeframe: • Waiting for a flip entry → CHoCH break of major LH + liquidity sweep before entry. • Plan: If 5M confirms CHoCH + sweep + order block retest, I’ll enter for a continuation downward. 🎯 Target: Next major low inside the 4H bearish structure. 🛑 Invalidation: If price flips structure fully bullish and holds above supply zones. Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
Bearish drop?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.0520 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that line sup with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension. Stop loss: 1.0576 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 1.0458 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
EURUSD 17-21 Feb 2025 W8 - Weekly Analysis -EU ZEW - US FOMC/PMIThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 17-21 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment Weekly Chart AnalysisDaily Chart Analysis4H Chart AnalysisEconomic Events for the WeekRelated PostsLatest Weekly Analysis Market Sentiment Inflation Data Mix U.S. CPI and PPI came in hotter than expected, signaling lingering inflation pressures. However, softer underlying PPI components linked to the Fed’s preferred PCE metric raised hopes for a moderation in inflation next week. Fed Policy Expectations Investors are cautiously optimistic about potential Fed rate cuts later in 2025, despite the Fed’s current "wait-and-see" stance. A softer PCE report next week could solidify bets on easing monetary policy, supporting risk assets like the Euro. Trump’s Tariff Strategy Markets dismissed Trump’s reciprocal tariff threats as negotiation tactics rather than a prelude to a trade war. Investors expect delays in implementation, reducing immediate fears of economic disruption. Geopolitical Optimism Progress in Ukraine-Russia peace talks (e.g., territory swap discussions) eased global risk aversion, weakening the USD’s safe-haven appeal. Reduced geopolitical tensions benefit the Eurozone economy, indirectly lifting the Euro. Central Bank Divergence The ECB may cut rates further in 2025, but improving Eurozone data and reduced trade-war risks provide short-term EUR support. The Fed’s cautious tone limits USD upside, creating a balanced tug-of-war. Short-Term Bias Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation. Key Risks: A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness. Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks. This balance of factors suggests choppy but upward-leaning trading for EUR/USD. Weekly Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹Internal Bearish 🔹In Swing Discount 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS) 3️⃣ 🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase. 🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicated that the liquidity was enough as per previous weeks analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS. 🔹Price pulled back after the Bullish CHoCH to the Weekly Demand formed and showed reaction after volatile week. 🔹With the previous week solid Bullish close, the Demand did hold and there is a high probability that price could continue Bullish to facilitate the INT structure pullback phase. 🔹If price to continue Bullish, price will be targeting the liquidity above Dec 2024, INT Structure EQ (50%) at 1.06933 to target the Weekly Supply in premium before continuing down to target the Weak INT Low. 🔹Expectations is for price to continue Bullish if it managed to break 1.05333 27 Jan High to facilitate the INT structure pullback. Daily Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone. 3️⃣ 🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone. 🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low. 🔹Price failed for the 2nd time to close below the Weak INT Low after mitigating the Daily Demand formed from the failure to close below the Weak INT Low which triggered aggressive Bullish reaction and mitigating the Daily Supply Zone formed from the recent Bearish CHoCH. 🔹After Supply mitigation, price continued Bearish following the Bearish INT Structure continuation phase. 🔹Previous week I mentioned “if the Daily formed a Bullish CHoCH (Currently above the recent mitigated Supply) this will shift my outlook to the Weekly Scenario of a deep pullback of the Weekly INT Structure to at least the Structure EQ (50%). MTF required to shift Bullish to confirm”. And with that happened I’d shifted to Bullish expectation and there is expectations of a deep pullback within the Daily Bearish INT structure. 🔹The expected targets for the current bullish move is 1st to sweep the liquidity above the equal highs (17 Dec & 27 Jan) 2nd Break of the Strong INT High to facilitate the Daily Bearish Swing pullback and the Weekly Bearish INT pullback. 🔹Currently Supply is failing and Demand is holding confirms the short-term Bullish scenario and setting my expectations for continuing Bullish. Price could pullback to the recent Daily Demand before continuing Bullish. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play. 🔹Price swept Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish to target the Weak 4H Swing High to facilitate to the Daily and Weekly expected Bullish move. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
Euro Gains Ground on Ukraine Peace TalksThe EUR/USD traded at $1.04 on Thursday, gaining 0.1% for the day after rebounding from earlier declines. The euro found support amid optimism over a potential peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, spurred by encouraging progress in diplomatic discussions. Despite rising U.S. Treasury yields strengthening the dollar, the euro remained steady. U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations, tempering hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts. While the dollar stays relatively strong, the euro’s stability suggests it could hold firm against the greenback. Moving forward, U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical events will be key factors influencing EUR/USD. From a technical standpoint, the first resistance level is at 1.0460, with further resistance at 1.0515 and 1.0600 if the price breaks higher. On the downside, initial support is at 1.0350, followed by additional levels at 1.0275 and 1.0220.
by zForexcom
EURUSD Selling OpportunitiesDaily swing Structure = Bearish Daily Internal Structure = Bearish Narrative We are pro-trend which means sell EURUSD. All structures are in alignment. 4Hrs Swing structure = Bullish Internal Structure = Bearish What we can observe is that daily swing, daily internal and 4hrs internal are all in alignment. We now know that the demand zones created as the market was in the pullback phase are reaction points and that the supply zones should hold if the bearish internal trend is to hold. Given the 2 facts, we should continue selling Targeting the internal weak low as the low hanging fruit. Also, it is important to note that we are creating some sorta supply chain, which further cements idea of a strong selling pressure coming into the market. So any pullback into the marked supply orderblock should give us a chance for entry.
Short
by DagemFxStudio
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance level of 1.03609.Colleagues, the situation on the markets is quite complicated. Now we are witnessing a period of complex combined corrections and lengthening waves. But it is also possible to analyze it. At the moment I expect the big gap to close and reach the resistance level of 1.03609. We all know that gaps usually close. This will be a correction in wave “2”. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Long
by Hellena_Trade
9
EUR/USD: Trump's Tariffs Impact Euro: Time for a Bounce?The EUR/USD pair kicked off the new trading week with a resounding bearish tone, plummeting to its lowest level since mid-January below 1.0210. Despite its oversold condition in the short term, investors continue to exercise caution in the Euro, fearing the lingering impact of US President Donald Trump's tariff threats. Over the weekend, Trump's administration announced sweeping trade tariffs on key allies and competitors alike. The tariffs, which range from 10% to 25%, are set to apply to imports from Mexico, Canada, China, and potentially the European Union. When questioned by reporters on Sunday about the prospect of imposing tariffs on European imports, Trump remained coy about the details, merely stating that it would happen, but without specifying timing or severity. This uncertain environment has instilled fear among market participants, causing the EUR/USD to decline sharply. However, as we navigate the complex landscape of global trade tensions, we believe that a short-term retracement is imminent. This potential correction could be sparked by investors seeking to reassess their positions and capitalize on any temporary relief from the recent downtrend. A Weekend Gap Opportunity In the near term, our primary focus is on the weekend gap that formed between 1.0170 and 1.0218. This gap represents a critical level that EUR/USD must fill to restore equilibrium in the market. If price action were to bounce from this gap, it could create a lucrative trading opportunity for traders looking to profit from a short-term recovery. Given the extreme bearishness surrounding the EUR, a retracement could be achievable if the market decides to close the weekend gap. While this may seem modest by some standards, any trading opportunity that arises from the EUR/USD's oversold condition is worth exploring. Conclusion As the EUR/USD pair continues to grapple with uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff threats, we expect a short-term retracement to emerge in the coming trading sessions. This potential correction could provide a window of opportunity for traders to capitalize on the weekend gap, potentially leading to a temporary bounce. While the long-term implications of these trade tensions remain unclear, our focus remains on the immediate market conditions. As the EUR/USD navigates this complex landscape, we remain poised to take advantage of any opportunities that arise from the market's natural oscillations. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/USD – Bullish Wave & Invalidation ZoneEUR/USD – Bullish Wave & Invalidation Zone 🚀 Hello traders! 👋 This is an updated Elliott Wave analysis for the EUR/USD market. Based on the weakness of DXY, I am sharing an aggressive bullish idea. However, if the price fails to break key levels and forms a corrective structure, it could indicate USD strength, leading to a bearish reversal. 🔹 Bullish Scenario (Aggressive Idea) If the market confirms bullish price action and breaks out of the top channel, we can anticipate a wave C impulse, targeting 1.12523 (first range) and potentially 1.19160 (extended range). 🔹 Conservative Approach A confirmed breakout with price action alongside a corrective structure will strengthen this scenario. Historically, in Wave A, we saw two 1-2 setups before a third-wave impulse, and history may repeat itself. 🔻 Key Invalidation Level: $1.01763 If the price fails to break resistance and moves downward, this analysis will be invalidated, signaling USD strength and a bearish market shift. 💬 What’s your view on this scenario? Let’s discuss in the comments! 👇
Long
by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP
2