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Euro / U.S. Dollar

1.13671USDR
−0.00025−0.02%
As of today at 05:21 GMT
USD
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EURUSD trade ideas

Story behind EURUSD chart and US10Y and DE10Y risk premiumLet’s have a look at the Currency and Bond markets today after an eventful last few weeks in both markets. After Moody’s downgrade of the US Gov bonds the markets look seemingly quiet. There has been no sudden spike in the US10Y. But it makes lot of sense to look beneath the hood and compare the Bond and the currency markets. Today we are looking into the 2 largest currency pairs, i.e. FX:EURUSD and the largest bond markets i.e. US10Y and German 10Y. It is astounding to observe how the Fib retracement levels from the peak and troughs in the FX:EURUSD and TVC:US10 - TVC:DE10Y charts coincide. Both indicators at @ 0.618 Fib levels. As anyone would expect when the FX:EURUSD makes new highs the diff between TVC:US10Y and TVC:DE10Y hits new highs as investors long the FX:EURUSD chart and in that way hedge the risk in the TVC:US10Y without going short TVC:US10Y which will then adversely affect the investors portfolio. Institutional investors have been unwinding the long position in the TVC:US10Y by going long EUR, YEN and CHF in the currency markets without explicitly selling the US10Y. Going back to the charts, what can we expect in the medium to long term? In my expectation both the charts can reach 0.786 Fib level and subsequently the 1.0 Levels. This will take the FX:EURUSD from 1.13 to 1.18 by the end of 2025 and then to our long-term target of 1.25. If those levels hold onto in the currency markets, then the risk premium of TVC:US10Y over TVC:DE10Y which is denoted in the chart by TVC:US10Y - TVC:DE10Y will go from 1.9% to 2.1% and then top out at 2.3%. May be this is the way USD will lose some of its market share as world reserve currency status. Verdict: USD Reserve currency status weakening. Buoyant FX:EURUSD marching towards 1.25. TVC:US10Y - TVC:DE10Y can reach 2.3%.
Long
by RabishankarBiswal
What's your view ( scenerio 1 or 2 ) --- 📈 EUR/USD Weekly Chart – Wave 4 in Progress? Wave 3 looks complete and price is now hovering in a key correction zone, hinting at the start of Wave 4. Two possible paths are unfolding: 🔴 Scenario 1: Shallow Wave 4 correction → breakout to Wave 5, targeting 1.16667 and beyond. 🔵 Scenario 2: Deeper Wave 4 correction → retest of demand zone near 1.08, followed by a strong Wave 5 rally. 🧠 Elliott Wave traders, it’s time to stay sharp! The reaction near the mid-box and support zone could define the next major move for the Euro. 💬 What’s your bias here — is this the start of Wave 5 or a fakeout before a deeper drop? Comment your view 👇 #EURUSD #ElliottWave #ForexWeekly #GreenFireForex #WaveAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #SupplyAndDemand ---
by Greenfireforex
EURUSD – Technical rebound, but bearish pressure still loomsAfter a sharp drop to the support zone around 1.12255, EURUSD has made a mild recovery and is now retesting the 1.13360 resistance area – which aligns with both the 34 and 89 EMAs. This confluence zone could trigger renewed selling pressure if price fails to break above. The 3-hour chart shows a zigzag-like recovery forming, but each new high is still lower than the previous one – indicating that the downtrend remains intact. If EURUSD continues to struggle at this resistance, it is likely to reverse and retest the 1.11910 support area. On the news front, markets are awaiting CPI data from both the Eurozone and the U.S. this week. If U.S. inflation comes in higher than expected, the dollar may continue to strengthen – increasing short-term downside pressure on EURUSD.
Short
by Rocky_trade_
Market next target 🔍 Original Analysis Summary Resistance Zone: Around 1.1360 Support Zone: Same level after breakout (suggesting a breakout and retest pattern) Target: Around 1.1450 after breakout --- 🚫 Disruption Points 1. False Breakout Risk What could happen: Price might break the resistance briefly and then fall back below it. Why: Lack of volume or confirmation, or a market maker trap to gather liquidity above the resistance zone. Disruption: Instead of forming new support, it could become a bull trap leading to a sharp reversal. 2. Fundamental Risk What could happen: Unexpected U.S. or Eurozone economic data (like NFP, CPI, or ECB/Fed announcements) may shift sentiment suddenly. Why: The image shows upcoming news events (flag icons), which could induce volatility. Disruption: The news might push EUR/USD sharply down even if a breakout occurs. 3. Bearish Divergence (if applicable) What could happen: If RSI or MACD were included, they might show divergence while price is rising. Why: Divergence typically precedes reversals. Disruption: This would undermine the bullish breakout thesis.
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals
EURUSD Structural Analysis | Curve Breakout to Key Reversal Zone🔍 Structure Analysis: The EURUSD pair has been exhibiting classic smart money behavior following a reaccumulation phase beneath a curved resistance structure. This curve acted as a dynamic liquidity ceiling, engineered to trap breakout traders during early sessions and encourage early shorts — only to be invalidated later by institutional momentum. What we now see is a clean structural breakout, a shift in market sentiment, and a precision drive toward premium liquidity zones, where we expect reactions from institutional orders or profit-taking. 📐 Technical Breakdown: 🔹 1. Curved Resistance Breakout (Trend Manipulation Layer) The curve represents a multi-touch descending resistance line that was gradually compressing price. Multiple rejections created a false sense of bearish continuation, but in reality, smart money was accumulating positions under the curve. The final breakout was impulsive and occurred on elevated volume, breaking both the curve and a short-term bearish structure. 🔹 2. Bullish Market Structure Confirmation Higher highs and higher lows are now clearly established. After the curve break, the price pulled back slightly, respecting the new trendline support — a sign of retest behavior and continuation. The previous internal structure break was confirmed after a key swing high was violated, flipping the order flow to bullish. 🔹 3. SR Interchange + QFL Demand Zone The 1.11800–1.12200 zone held firm during the retracement, previously acting as a strong resistance and now a support flip. This zone coincides with a QFL-style accumulation base — a concept based on sudden dips into support where big orders are filled before sharp reversals. Wick rejections and candle closes show strong interest by buyers. 🔹 4. Trendline & Structure Alignment A clean ascending trendline is acting as dynamic support. Each touch on the trendline has been followed by bullish expansion — another indication of institutional order flow support. This trendline also aligns with internal FVGs (Fair Value Gaps), offering more confluence. 🔹 5. Liquidity Magnet: Next Major Zone The next key area is marked around 1.15500–1.15750, which is a previous structural high, order block, and likely liquidity pool for pending sell-side orders. This area is expected to act as a magnet, pulling price toward it before a potential reversal or redistribution phase begins. 📊 Trade Management Plan: Parameter Details Bias Bullish (Short-Term to Mid-Term) Entry Zones Retest of trendline or minor FVGs TP1 1.14500 (interim supply) TP2 (Main) 1.15500–1.15750 (major liquidity zone) SL Below 1.11800 (invalidates bullish idea) RR Target 1:2.5 to 1:3 depending on entry precision 🧠 Concepts Applied: Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Break of Structure (BOS) & Change of Character (CHOCH) Curve Manipulation / Compression SR Flip (Support-Resistance Interchange) QFL (Quasimodo Failure Level) Trendline + FVG Confluence Liquidity Pool Targeting Volume Expansion Breakout Confirmation 🛎️ Watchlist Notes & Trade Expectations: Expect short-term pullbacks into the 1.13000–1.13200 zone for liquidity re-tests. Watch for reaction or sweep near 1.15500 — this is where short-term sellers may enter, and institutions may offload. If price holds above the trendline and consolidates near the high, a continuation leg to even higher targets (1.16500) is possible — depending on macro conditions. ✅ Conclusion: This EURUSD setup is a high-probability opportunity shaped by smart money behavior and deep structural context. The combination of the curve breakout, trendline strength, and liquidity targeting provides a clear roadmap for execution and management. Use this analysis as a framework — always confirm with price action and risk management aligned with your personal strategy.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
EURUSD May 30 Failed tradesEURUSD May 30 Failed trades Logic coming into today was Price would reach for equal highs liquidity, which I tried to trade wasting valuable mental capital on a swing with a small pip reward. I went long for equal highs not once but twice, anticipating to then short for the London sentiment *21:00 entry anticipating a long to equal highs risk to reward was 15 pips I suspected a swing to the higher high at price 1.13923 target *Came back on me stopped me out Embarrassed to write this out and yet lets go! *20:21 super revenge trade on my idea so low brow move same thing longed at a stupid time and got stopped out after it took session liquidity, and rolled over Broke rules *never buy in a premium *only trade macro times *suppress the urge to revenge trade *always trade after liquidity is taken Notes for failed sells I took that were poorly executed London Macro 2:00 entry with a 5 pip stop loss-stopped out 2:15 entry with a larger stop loss and came back again *Lack of trust in my bias after a dismal morning adding to over analyzing *Broke my rule of1 to 2 trades a day *If I would have taken the time to just review the morning cross reference DXY/GBP and had faith that my logic was correct both 1:45 and 2:45 provided entries *I witness the value of getting in early and yet when its right there I freeze *Focus on sound logic to reframe your confidence *stick to bias and follow through *Your idea played out and you were too eager and excited to trade-learn to calm and stay focused *small stop loss were employed, if I would have stuck to my bias in Asia and London today would have been a large success *greed in the morning captured me with wanting both swings-1 swing at a time *fear of more loss prevented a larger stop loss which at 2 macro would have held me in the trade
by LeanLena
EURUSD: weekly overviewTake FOMC meeting under observation, the US GDP is also a really important news. The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones. Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray. You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confrimation and ETC. SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings. TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels. ******************************************************************* Role of different zones: GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them. RED: Just Short trades allowed on them. BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them. WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
Long
by AliSignals
EUR/USD Drifts Lower as Dollar ReboundsEUR/USD is struggling to hold onto Thursday’s rebound from the 1.1200 region—its lowest in nearly 10 days—and trades with a slight bearish bias in Friday’s Asian session. The pair is hovering near the mid-1.1300s, down around 0.15% on the day. The US Dollar regained some ground due to renewed safe-haven demand after a federal appeals court reinstated former President Trump’s broad trade tariffs, injecting fresh uncertainty into the markets. However, the dollar’s momentum remains limited by concerns over the US fiscal outlook and expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2025. The euro finds partial support as Trump postponed tariffs on EU imports. Market focus now shifts to the upcoming US PCE inflation data, which may influence Fed policy expectations, followed by next Thursday’s ECB meeting for further direction. Resistance is seen at 1.1400, with higher levels at 1.1460 and 1.1500. Support is located at 1.1300, followed by 1.1260 and 1.1210.
by ChartMage
EURUSD Buy- look for buy when price pull back to discount level - refine entry with smaller SL for better RR, if your strategy allow A Message To Traders: I’ll be sharing high-quality trade setups for a period time. No bullshit, no fluff, no complicated nonsense — just real, actionable forecast the algorithm is executing. If you’re struggling with trading and desperate for better results, follow my posts closely. Check out my previously posted setups and forecasts — you’ll be amazed by the high accuracy of the results. "I Found the Code. I Trust the Algo. Believe Me, That’s It."
Long
by Vincent-DA
#AN003 News of the Week and Impact on Forex Hello, I am Forex trader Andrea Russo, and today I present to you a detailed analysis of the most important news of the week (26–29 May 2025) and their real impact on the Forex market, with strategic observations to immediately include in your trading plan. In this article we will examine the 7 most significant macroeconomic and geopolitical events that have affected the main currency pairs, evaluating the effect on USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD and emerging currencies. Everything is filtered according to the SwipeUP v9 Elite FX model, based on institutional data, real sentiment and candle-by-candle simulations. 📌 1. USA: Court stops Trump Tariffs One of the most relevant news of the week comes from the United States: a federal court has blocked the application of Donald Trump's trade tariffs, declaring them illegitimate. This event has caused an immediate reaction in the currency markets. 🔍 Forex Impact: The US Dollar (USD) had an initial technical bounce, but then lost strength in the European session. Pairs such as EUR/USD and USD/JPY showed strong reactivity. EUR/USD was rejected from 1.1250, while USD/JPY found support. 📊 Strategic Implications: Risk perceptions on the greenback are rising. Interest in alternative safe haven currencies such as gold and the Swiss franc is growing. 📌 2. US Q1 GDP Downward US Q1 GDP was revised down from -0.1% to -0.2%, confirming a mild economic contraction. 🔍 Forex Impact: The dollar lost momentum, reinforcing the narrative of a possible rate cut. EUR/USD could consolidate above 1.1200 ahead of stronger EU PMI data. 📊 Key Pairs: EUR/USD long on confirmation of 1.1200 support. Possible breakout on AUD/USD if US data continues to disappoint. 📌 3. US Inventories and Oil Rebound: CAD on the Boost US crude inventories fell more than expected, and WTI price is back above $79. 🔍 FX Impact: CAD strengthens on fundamental and intermarket basis. Potential short on USD/CAD with target area 1.3550. 📌 4. UK: Very Strong Data and Resilient GBP UK macro data surprised to the upside: services PMI and core inflation stable, supporting the British pound. 🔍 Forex Impact: GBP/USD above 1.2700 with room for expansion. EUR/GBP rejected by 0.8600: potential for bearish continuation. 📌 5. Forex Options Expirations and Expected Volatility Thursday and Friday are crowded with large option expirations, which can act as price magnets. 📍 Levels to Watch: EUR/USD: 1.1200 and 1.1250 → potential for spikes or rejections. USD/JPY: 145.00 → technical and options confluence. AUD/USD: 0.6650 key zone with volumes in compression. 📊 Trading advice: avoid new entries near option levels without confirmation of real breakout. 📌 6. Nvidia and US Tech Rally: Anti-Yen Effect Nvidia’s results have boosted the entire US tech sector, causing a wave of risk-on. 🔍 Impact on FX: JPY and CHF weak on low interest in safe-haven assets. Great setups on AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, EUR/CHF long. 📌 7. China: PMI Above 50, Support for AUD/NZD Chinese manufacturing PMI data has returned above 50, signaling expansion. 🔍 Impact on FX: AUD and NZD find technical and macro support. Watch out for AUD/CHF, where macro divergences could generate a bearish reversal. 🧠 Forex Trading Strategy for the Next Week ✅ Strong Currencies: CAD (oil + risk-on sentiment) GBP (macro data + technical momentum) EUR (resilience on USD and supports held) ❌ Weak Currencies: USD (negative GDP, political uncertainty) JPY (no safe haven demand) AUD (potentially vulnerable on risk-on downside)
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Market next move 🔻 Disruption Scenarios: 1. Resistance Zone at Target Level The marked "Target" could coincide with a strong resistance level from a previous high. Price may reject this level again, forming a double top or bearish reversal candlestick pattern (e.g., shooting star or bearish engulfing). 2. Volume Divergence The recent uptrend shows a slight drop in buying volume. If price increases while volume decreases, it signals a potential exhaustion of bullish momentum. 3. Upcoming News Events (Fundamentals) The chart shows several upcoming economic events (news icons). Any negative surprise from U.S. data or positive Eurozone data could reverse the trend sharply. For example, better-than-expected U.S. employment data could strengthen the USD, pushing EUR/USD down. 4. Overbought Condition If we add an RSI (Relative Strength Index) or Stochastic oscillator, the price might already be in the overbought zone, suggesting a correction is due. 5. Fake Breakout Trap If the price hits the “Target” but then fails to close above it, it could be a bull trap, triggering short positions and leading to a sharp sell-off.
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals
EURUSD tested the Support line 1.12265 👀Possible scenario: The euro (EUR) dropped 0.32% on May 29, marking its third straight loss, after a U.S. court ruled Trump's reciprocal tariffs unlawful—beyond just the original plaintiffs. The decision, expected to be appealed, adds fresh uncertainty to U.S. trade policy and investor sentiment. Markets are also watching the U.S. Senate, where Trump’s tax and spending plan faces pushback. Meanwhile, the Fed’s latest minutes showed a cautious stance, citing inflation risks and possible rising unemployment—hinting at a delicate policy balance ahead. Focus now shifts to key U.S. data due May 29 at 12:30 p.m. UTC—GDP and jobless claims. Strong numbers could delay Fed rate cuts, pushing EUR/USD below 1.1180. Weak data may lift the euro above 1.1300. ✅Support and Resistance Levels Now, the support level is located at 1.12265. Resistance level is located at 1.14220.
by MaxOnMarkets
Euro Weakens Near 1.1240 Amid Economic ReleasesEUR/USD extended its decline for a third straight session, trading near 1.1240 during Thursday’s Asian hours. Market attention is now turning to key upcoming U.S. economic releases, including Q1 Annualized GDP, quarterly PCE Prices, and weekly Jobless Claims. The U.S. dollar gained strength following a federal court decision on Wednesday, which blocked former President Trump’s attempt to enforce "Liberation Day" tariffs, ruling the measure unconstitutional and beyond presidential authority, according to a Manhattan court panel. The key resistance is located at 1.1290 and the first support stands at 1.1200.
by ChartMage
EURUSD PLAN – Is the Rebound Just a Pause Before the Drop? EURUSD PLAN – Is the Rebound Just a Pause Before the Drop? | All Eyes on PCE 📊 MACRO OUTLOOK: Following the latest FOMC meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, but maintained a hawkish tone. Chair Powell reiterated that inflation remains too sticky to consider rate cuts in the near term. Markets now await this week’s US PCE data — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — which could provide the next major catalyst for USD strength or weakness. On the Euro side, weak consumer confidence and tepid growth have strengthened expectations for an ECB rate cut in June. This divergence in monetary policy is weighing on the Euro, as the Dollar finds new demand amid global risk recalibration. 📉 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (H1): EURUSD has broken down from recent highs near 1.1412 and is now forming a bearish retracement pattern. Price has broken below the 89-EMA and 200-EMA, signaling bearish structure. Current price action suggests a temporary bounce from the 1.1260–1.1280 support zone (Fibo 38.2%–50%), but the broader trend remains bearish. Fibonacci retracement from recent swing lows highlights 1.1338 and 1.1372 as key resistance levels to watch. 🔑 KEY TECHNICAL ZONES: Resistance Zones: • 1.1313 – Minor intraday level (Fibo 0.5) • 1.1338 – EMA confluence + former structure • 1.1372 – Major rejection zone (previous distribution top) Support Zones: • 1.1280 – 1.1260 – Current support bounce area • 1.1220 – Key liquidity sweep zone 🧭 TRADE STRATEGY: Scenario A – Sell the Pullback: • Wait for a rebound into the 1.1313 – 1.1338 zone • Enter SELL if bearish rejection forms • SL: 1.1376 • TP: 1.1280 → 1.1260 → 1.1220 Scenario B – Invalid Breakout: • If price breaks above 1.1372 with momentum, this plan is invalidated — wait for a confirmed breakout retest. Scenario C – Reactive Buy Scalp: • If price shows strong rejection from 1.1260 again, scalpers may consider a temporary BUY back toward 1.1300–1.1310 • This is high-risk and counter-trend. ⚠️ STRATEGIC NOTES: EURUSD remains in a bearish bias until major resistance levels are broken. With PCE data approaching, volatility is likely. Trade setups should be based on confirmation signals and managed tightly as macro data can shift momentum rapidly.
Long
by MMFlowTrading