EURUSD – Signs of Weakness, Risk of Trendline BreakEURUSD is showing signs of weakness after a strong rejection at the 1.16300 resistance zone — a level that previously acted as a distribution area. Despite a brief rebound driven by mixed PMI data, the Euro failed to maintain its momentum and is now turning lower.
If price breaks below the support zone around 1.15400 — which aligns with both the trendline and an old FVG — a deeper decline toward the 1.15000 level could be triggered. Continued failure to surpass the 1.16300 resistance would further strengthen the corrective pressure.
On the fundamental side, expectations for the ECB to hold rates steady and weaker-than-expected Eurozone data are dampening the Euro’s outlook. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains firm on safe-haven demand, with upcoming US GDP and Core PCE data likely to drive short-term direction.
EURUSD trade ideas
EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart (OANDA)4-hour price movement of the Euro/U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) currency pair from OANDA, covering the period from June 19 to July 11, 2025. The current exchange rate is 1.16787, reflecting a 0.16% increase (+0.00189). The chart highlights a recent upward trend, with a notable price range between 1.15990 and 1.17335, and includes candlestick patterns and a highlighted resistance zone.
Clear enough?we see a long push with displacement on the H1 that leaves behind a confluence between an Order Block and an Imbalance, up above there is an imbalance that also has a cconfluence with the senitive zone represented from the buyside liquidity of the previous range.
I currently want to see price head down there to start searching for an entry.
If anyone has questions feel free to ask.
EURUSD Wave Analysis – 25 June 2025
- EURUSD broke resistance level 1.1575
- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1800
EURUSD currency pair recently broke the resistance level 1.1575 , which is the former monthly high from the middle of April.
The breakout of the resistance level 1.1575 continues the active short-term impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of May.
Given the strong daily uptrend, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.1800, which intersects with the daily up channel from May.
EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart Analysis (ONDA)Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate over a 4-hour interval, sourced from ONDA. The current rate is 1.16177, reflecting a 0.08% increase (+0.00093). The chart highlights a recent upward trend, with a resistance level around 1.16746 and a support zone between 1.15439 and 1.16000, as indicated by the shaded areas. The time frame covers late June to early July 2025.
EURUSD Set To Fall! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for EURUSD is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.1521
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 1.1496
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSD broke the Resistance level 1.16100 👀 Possible scenario:
The euro rose 0.1% on June 24, nearing 1.16250 and hitting a 2.5-year high of 1.16410, as the U.S. dollar softened following soft remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and weak U.S. data. Powell warned that tariffs may boost inflation this summer but signaled openness to rate cuts if economic risks grow.
U.S. consumer confidence fell unexpectedly in June, fueling concerns about a slowing job market and economy. This boosted expectations for a July Fed rate cut, now seen at 18%, and supported the euro as traders weighed diverging Fed-ECB policy paths. Traders now see an 18% chance of a July cut, boosting the euro amid diverging Fed-ECB outlooks.
✅ Support and Resistance Levels
Now, the support level is located at 1.14535
Resistance level is located at 1.16330
Short trade
4Hr TF overview
🔻 Trade Journal Entry – Sell-side Trade
📍 Pair: EURUSD
📅 Date: Wednesday, June 25, 2025 (You wrote June 15th — adjusted to match your current date sequence)
🕒 Time: 5:00 AM (London Session AM)
⏱ Time Frame: 4 Hour
📉 Direction: Sell-side
📊 Trade Breakdown:
Metric Value
Entry Price 1.16072
Profit Level 1.14888 (−1.02%)
Stop Loss 1.16244 (+0.15%)
Risk-Reward
Ratio 6.88 1
🧠 Context / Trade Notes:
4HR Premium Entry from Bearish OB:
Trade executed at the upper end of the internal range, where price tapped into a high-probability bearish order block.
London AM Stop-Hunt:
Price swept a prior London session high before rejecting, indicative of engineered liquidity and smart money distribution.
Break of Structure & Momentum Confirmation:
Following the sweep, price broke internal structure to the downside, confirming bearish intent.
Can it Reach New Highs as USD Weakens?EUR/USD: Euro's Resilience Holds Strong – Can it Reach New Highs as USD Weakens?
🌍 Macro Landscape: EUR/USD Rides Risk-On Sentiment and Fed Cut Hopes
The Euro (EUR) is showing significant strength, maintaining its position near a three-year high against the US Dollar (USD). This resilience is largely fueled by a moderately positive risk appetite in the market.
Simultaneously, the US Dollar is facing considerable downward pressure. This weakness stems from recent weaker-than-expected economic data from the United States and increasing market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to implement interest rate cuts. If US economic indicators continue to soften, it could solidify the case for earlier Fed rate cuts, further undermining the USD and potentially boosting EUR/USD.
🏦 Central Bank Policy: Diverging Paths for ECB and Fed
Federal Reserve (Fed): The market is increasingly pricing in the likelihood of Fed interest rate cuts. Weaker US data strengthens this narrative, as the Fed might be compelled to ease monetary policy to support economic growth. This dovish outlook for the Fed is a key driver of USD weakness.
European Central Bank (ECB): While the provided information focuses on the EUR's strength due to broader market sentiment and USD weakness, the ECB's more measured approach to monetary policy compared to the Fed's potential easing can create a favorable interest rate differential for the Euro, attracting capital flows.
This divergence in central bank policy expectations—with the Fed leaning towards cuts and the ECB maintaining a more cautious stance—creates a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair.
🌐 Capital Flows: Money Favors Euro Amidst USD Softness
Global capital flow models suggest that funds are increasingly moving towards assets perceived as offering better relative value or stability. As US yields become less attractive due to anticipated Fed rate cuts, capital may flow out of USD-denominated assets.
This outflow from the USD naturally benefits currencies like the Euro, especially given its current positive momentum driven by a moderate risk-on environment. The re-pricing of Fed policy risk directly influences these capital movements, contributing to the upward trajectory of EUR/USD.
📊 Technical Structure (H4 Chart Analysis): EUR/USD Eyes Key Resistance Levels
Based on the provided EUR/USD H4 chart:
Uptrend intact: The pair continues to exhibit a positive trend, characterized by higher lows and higher highs within an ascending channel.
Key Resistance Levels:
Initial Resistance: 1.16330. This level aligns with recent highs and the top of the minor channel. A break above this suggests further bullish momentum.
Major Resistance Zone: 1.17031. This is indicated as a significant resistance area, potentially a long-term target or a reversal point. A break here would confirm strong bullish conviction.
Key Support Levels:
Immediate Support: 1.15470. This level has acted as a support point, aligning with the EMA 200 and a Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential bounce area.
Strong Support Zone: 1.15249. This zone represents a robust demand area, aligning with previous price action and serving as a crucial level for bulls to defend.
Moving Averages (EMA 13-34-89-200): The price is trading above the short-term and long-term EMAs, suggesting strong bullish momentum. The EMAs are fanning out and showing a bullish alignment, reinforcing the uptrend.
Projected Price Action: The chart suggests that the price might retrace towards the 1.15470 or 1.15249 support zones before resuming its upward trajectory towards the 1.16330 and potentially 1.17031 resistance levels.
🎯 Trade Strategy Recommendations:
Scenario 1 – BUY the Dip:
Entry: Look for bullish confirmation around 1.15470 - 1.15249.
Stop-Loss: Below 1.15100 (or a level below the 1.15249 support for risk management).
Take-Profit:
TP1: 1.15600
TP2: 1.15800
TP3: 1.16000
TP4: 1.16200
TP5: 1.16330 (Targeting the immediate resistance)
TP6: 1.16500
TP7: 1.16800
TP8: 1.17031 (Targeting the major resistance)
Scenario 2 – SELL the Rally (Counter-trend/Reversal):
Entry: Look for bearish confirmation around 1.16330 - 1.16400 or higher near 1.17031.
Stop-Loss: Above 1.16500 (or above 1.17100 if selling at higher resistance).
Take-Profit:
TP1: 1.16200
TP2: 1.16000
TP3: 1.15800
TP4: 1.15600
TP5: 1.15470 (Targeting the immediate support)
TP6: 1.15249 (Targeting the strong support zone)
⚠️ Key Events to Watch:
Upcoming US Economic Data: Any further weak data could solidify Fed rate cut expectations and weigh on the USD.
ECB Official Statements: Comments from ECB members on inflation or monetary policy could impact EUR's strength.
Global Risk Sentiment: A continued moderate risk-on environment will generally support the EUR against the USD.
Trade smart and stay informed! Wishing everyone a successful trading day!
EURUSD - Looking to the upside retest of SupplyLooking to the upside, first lets get that push to lower level of liquidity swing then a push to the upside. Only on bullish confirmation at our highlighted level. I think we have one more retest before catching a potential short (pullback) on the larger time frame. Long term target for EURUSD is 1.200.
EUR/USD Nears 1.1620 Before Powell’s TestimonyEUR/USD edged up to 1.1615 in early European trading on Wednesday, supported by improved risk sentiment after Israel and Iran signaled an end to their air conflict. The truce, backed by pressure from President Trump, increased appetite for risk assets, favoring the euro over the dollar.
All eyes are now on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who reiterated on Tuesday that monetary policy will remain data-driven. However, comments from Kansas City Fed President Schmid hinted at caution due to tariff-driven inflation. While markets expect a rate cut in September, July odds have edged slightly higher.
Resistance is at 1.1630, while support is at 1.1530.
Sell EURUSDI'm analyzing EURUSD, and on the 4-hour timeframe, the overall market is in an uptrend. In the 1-hour timeframe, a minor downtrend has been broken, and the price looks like it is showing reversal pattern and if the market breaks that reversal trend then I will look for sell till that red line.
If the market run as per my analysis then I will look for buy along with overall trend after sell.
EURUSD High Probability H4 LongTrend is up
Stop loss behind solid support level
We expect market to continue upwards, especially if go down to the support level
Can create another entry pending order exactly on support which would give 6:1 RR
We enter now in case market doesn't reach support and continues to target
EUR/USD Buy EUR/USD pull-back long
Buy-limit at 1.1460
Stop-loss at 1.1395
Take-profit 1 at 1.1560 – when this first target is reached, move the stop to breakeven
Take-profit 2 at 1.1630
Condition: keep the order active only while the daily candle continues to close at or above 1.1445.
Expiry: if the order hasn’t been filled after five full trading days, cancel it and reassess.