EURUSD H4 Short IdeaAccording to the analysis on this instrument we expect the price to fall from a strong level. But we enter the market after price confirmation.
EURUSD_TOM trade ideas
EURUSD Will it follow Trump's 1st Term??The EURUSD pair made a market bottom on January 13 2025 and in recent trade, it has been consolidating above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Interestingly enough, this is so far similar to the price action that preceded and followed Trump's 1st Term.
A 1D Death Cross took the market from the November 2016 elections to the January 2017 bottom. After a 1D RSI Double Top and Resistance rejection, the pair dropped again below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but recovered to reach the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) in end of March 2017 and initiate an aggressive Channel Up that peaked on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the September 2016 High.
If EURUSD continues to replicate Trump's Year 1 of his 1st Term, it is possible to see the price reach 1.19000 by the end of 2025, although of course we can't rely solely on repetitive patterns, but have to go along macro reports and policies one at a time.
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Clear Sign for short-tradeThe price chart has clearly established a robust resistance level, showing no signs of breaking through again. As a result, the price is likely to breach the first trendline in the near term, entering an accumulation phase. During this phase, the price is expected to consolidate for some time before eventually breaking the second trendline. This breakout will likely trigger a downward movement, potentially driving the price toward the 1.013 level by mid-March.
EUR/USD Trend and Trading Strategy for the Beginning of the WeekEUR/USD news:
🔆The EUR/USD pair gains positive momentum at the start of the new week, reaching a near one-month high around the 1.0525-1.0530 range during the Asian session, driven by renewed selling pressure on the US dollar (USD).
🔆Heading into the weekend, the USD struggled following weaker-than-expected economic data, including the final Michigan Confidence Index, Home Sales, and the US S&P Services PMI, which recorded its first contraction in 25 months.
🔆Additionally, the conservative party’s victory in the German election strengthens the euro, providing further support to the pair.
Personal opinion:
🔆EUR/USD will continue to increase due to positive news from the EU. And the weakness of the USD is inevitable when the uncertainties about tariffs and the instability of the US federal bureaucracy are still complicated
Technical analysis:
🔆Based on important resistance - support and Fibonacci levels combined with trend lines to come up with a reasonable strategy
Plan:
🔆 Price Zone Setup:
👉Buy EUR/USD 1.050x– 1.048x
❌SL: 1.0430 | ✅TP: 1.0550– 1.0600 – 1.0650
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Euro / U.S. Dollar
Hello Dear Traders
Euro Analysis
Based on the DXY analysis, which is bullish, I present to you the updated analysis for the Euro. I have identified the suitable selling area on the 1-hour timeframe. We are in a downward structure on the 4-hour timeframe, while the minor 1-hour chart is bullish. By obtaining confirmation from the 1-hour chart—validated by breaking the CHoCH—we can utilize this area of the Secret Order Block (1H) for entering a sell position.
Again, in the selling area, a 5-minute confirmation can help us optimize our entry into the trade.
First Support: 1.04494
1-Hour Liquidity: 1.03731
Potential Suitable Buying Area: 1.02720, which I will update once the price reaches this level.
Thank you for your support and companionship, dear friends.
Wishing you all success!
Fereydoon Bahrami
A retail trader in the Wall Street Trading Centre (Forex)
Risk Disclosure:
Trading in the Forex market is risky due to high price volatility. This analysis is solely my personal opinion and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own research. You are responsible for any profits or losses resulting from this analysis.
EUR/USD: Navigating Supply Zones and Future TrendsThis morning, the EUR/USD pair opened at 1.05279, experiencing an initial push before retreating to around 1.04700. As I draft this analysis, the market is exhibiting a rejection spike, indicating volatile trading conditions. Currently, the price is lingering within a supply zone established last week, where we witnessed a notable bearish impulse followed by a sharp bullish reversal leading us to our present levels.
In the absence of significant macroeconomic updates or policy news to influence the currency markets, we will be closely observing any developments surrounding tariffs and the US's stance on European security as they unfold this week.
Additionally, the upcoming PCE inflation figures from the United States, scheduled for release on Friday, will be under the scrutinization of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials, as usual.
Our outlook remains robust, as we anticipate a potential bearish trend in the market. The current price resides within a supply area, supported by the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which indicates a bullish sentiment among retail traders. Furthermore, our forecasting indicators suggest a looming bearish trend, consistent with patterns observed over the past decade during this timeframe. We are positioning ourselves for a bearish week ahead.
✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
EURO LIFTS POST-GERMAN VOTE—BUT USD BITES BACKEURO LIFTS POST-GERMAN VOTE—BUT USD BITES BACK FX:EURUSD
(1/9)
Good morning, Tradingview Fam! Germany’s election—Merz and CDU on top—gave the euro a quick jolt, up 0.44% to $1.0507 📈🔥. Markets dig the stability vibe, but it’s fading fast—let’s unpack this tussle! 🚀
(2/9) – ELECTION SPARK
• Euro Bump: Hit $1.0530 overnight—election cheer 💥
• Markets: DAX futures up 1.2%, EUROSTOXX 50 +0.66% 📊
• Fade: Now at $1.0480—USD’s flexing back
Brief lift—stability’s sweet, but not sticky!
(3/9) – TECH TELLTALE
• Resistance: $1.0500-1.0510 wall holds firm 🌍
• Support: $1.0470 pivot, then $1.0440 if it slips 🚗
• Charts: Double top whispers at $1.0530 🌟
Traders on X see a retreat—bearish juice brewing?
(4/9) – USD PUSHBACK
• Jobless Claims: Weak last week, USD softened a tad 📉
• Fed: No rush to cut—rates steady, Nvidia looms
• Muscle: Dollar’s clawing back—ballast holds
AMEX:USD ’s got grit—euro’s nudge ain’t enough! 🌍
(5/9) – RISKS IN PLAY
• Volatility: PMI data, Nvidia earnings stir the pot ⚠️
• Sentiment: X split—liquidity grab or bear turn? 🏛️
• Levels: Below $1.0470 opens $1.0390 risk 📉
Quick sprint—can euro keep the pace?
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Election Lift: CDU win sparks euro hope 🌟
• Markets: European futures pop—optimism flows 🔍
• Cash: $1.0530 peak shows buyer guts 🚦
Euro’s got some spark—briefly lit!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: $1.0510 cap, USD fights back 💸
• Opportunities: PMI beats could push $1.0600 🌍
Will euro dodge the dollar’s jab?
(8/9) – Euro’s election bump—what’s your call?
1️⃣ Bullish—Stability wins out.
2️⃣ Neutral—Blip, not a trend.
3️⃣ Bearish—USD takes the ring.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
Euro spiked to $1.0507 on Germany’s vote—CDU’s steady hand 🌍🪙. Now $1.0480—USD’s got claws. Resistance bites, downside looms—blip or bust?
EURUSD DUMP Easily anticipating a lock for high of week. If not, I will cove to .055
Rapid 1.2.3 (i) (ii) (iii) on Monday's open running straight to previous week highs before bearish ChoCh, BOS and change in market structure.
LO premarket move anticipating to control risk with SL to BE targeting equilibrium or 50% retracement to open the week
***Unfortunately price is currently trading above VWAP. A strong high volume move across is required to validate the move***
-YungEmsi
EUR to push higher
Let's start with the daily TF:
We've been in a downward channel for a while now and price seem to try and break out of it to the upside now.
Adding to that we also have some equal highs above that haven't been touched for a while now and you can expect that liquidity to be grabbed.
Note how that level correspond exactly to the weekly R1 pivot point as well. You can expect some resistance once we reach that level.
4h:
Here we can see the price delivery has been very efficient on the way up, leaving but one small imbalance
We have a clear bullish hidden divergence on RSI as well and equal highs sitting just above the previous swing high.
We're about to enter a previous support/resistance zone which coincide perfectly with the imbalance left yesterday during the push up which looks like the perfect long setup entry to play the continuation long. (which correspond to the 50% retracement from the previous swing low)
5min for entry:
Following the HTF analysis and looking at the 5min for entry, we can see that yesterday's R1 pivot correspond to the 79% retracement from the last low before the big push up that didn't give any proper pullback since. It's also at the S/R seen on HTF
Entry at that level would be ideal with a SL below S1 pivot and targeting at least the low hanging fruit at the equal highs for a first TP.
As always make sure you only trade what you CAN lose and use proper stop loss to avoid any big losses. Nothing is never certain, it's just a game of stacking probability in your favor.
EUR/USD BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
Bearish trend on EUR/USD, defined by the red colour of the last week candle combined with the fact the pair is overbought based on the BB upper band proximity, makes me expect a bearish rebound from the resistance line above and a retest of the local target below at 1.024.
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EURUSD Swing trade idea update 24/-2/2025EURUSD saw a 48-pip spike to 1.05308 but is failing to break higher, possibly forming a double top. Given USD volatility, I’m waiting for a daily close below Friday’s low for added confirmation of longer-term sells to at least 1.02700. Watching price action closely.
Lingrid | EURUSD opportunity to GO Long from SUPPORT zoneFX:EURUSD market made a false breakout above the previous weekly high, but ultimately, the price closed above that level. It then tested the January high area, which resulted in a pullback. Currently, the price is rolling back toward the Friday low, where it may find support. There’s a good chance that the price may form a range around these levels before the breakout. Overall, I expect the price to rebound from the support level and the channel border, continuing to make higher highs toward the 1.06000 resistance. My goal is resistance zone around 1.05550
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
EUR/USD Chart Analysis: Exchange Rate Hits Highest LevelEUR/USD Chart Analysis: Exchange Rate Hits Highest Level Since Early February
The EUR/USD chart shows the euro rising above its previous February peak of 1.05155, set on the 14th.
On one hand, the euro's strength is driven by Germany’s national elections over the weekend, where the opposition conservatives, led by Friedrich Merz, secured victory as expected. Investors are now focused on how quickly Merz’s party can form a coalition government to implement much-needed economic reforms.
On the other hand, the US dollar index has fallen to its lowest level since mid-December.
According to Reuters, the dollar’s weakness is influenced by:
→ Shifting market perceptions of its value amid Trump’s tariff policies in global trade.
→ Declining US Treasury yields due to expectations of further Fed rate cuts in 2025.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Chart
Price movements form an upward channel (marked in blue), but the red arrow highlights bearish activity near resistance levels at:
→ The yearly high around 1.05333.
→ The median line of the channel.
Given the lower liquidity at the start of trading, the initial breakout above the psychological 1.05000 level may have been false. Potential bearish pressure could push EUR/USD towards a support zone, including:
→ The 1.0400 level.
→ The lower boundary of a broader channel (marked in orange).
If bulls intend to maintain their February momentum, signs of buying activity may emerge near the lower boundary of the blue channel.
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EURUSD: holds steady above 1.0400 amid US tariff threatsEUR/USD holds steady above 1.0450 in the European trading hours on Thursday. Broad US Dollar underperformance supports the pair. However, tariff threats from US President Donald Trump and geopolitical tension might cap its upside. US data and Fedspeak remains in focus.
EUR/USD Technical Overview
Technically, the bullish outlook of EUR/USD remains intact as the major pair holds above the key 100-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is located below the midline, near 42.85, suggesting that further downside cannot be ruled out.
The first upside barrier for EUR/USD emerges near 1.0461, the high of February 19. The key resistance level to watch is the 1.0500-1.0505 zone, representing the psychological level and the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. A decisive break above this level will see a rally to 1.0533, the high of January 27.
EURUSD / LONG / 19.02.25⬆️ BUY EUR/USD 19.02.25
💰 Entry: $1.04324
🎯 Goal: $1.05333
⛔️ Stop: $1.04190
Entry reasons:
1) OSOK:
— Week minimum was set on tuesday and price is moving to weekly open level with 15m bullish structure.
— Month minimum was set at the first weekly of month and price is above monthly open level.
2) Eliott waves:
— 1D: ABCDE
— 4H: 1-2, wave 3 is forming.
3) Range:
— Price is inside bullish weekly range
— Price is inside bullish daily range (correction, 38-50%)
4) Addition arguments:
— Testing of big cluster
— Divergence (1h)
— Downtrend is not confirmed by volumes (low effort and result).
Therefore, it's manipulate to create swing point on wednesday.
Goal is previous weekly high: $1.05333
Trading Signans for EUR/USD sell below 1.05280The upcoming week is filled with important fundamental events, which puts the EUR/USD pair at a critical juncture -it could either move toward the 5th figure range or descend to the 3rd figure range. Last week, the EUR/USD recorded a high of 1.0507 and a low of 1.0401, closing on Friday at 1.0461, which is essentially in the middle of this price range. This outcome reflects the indecision among both buyers and sellers in the EUR/USD market.
EURO German electionThe Euro’s strength compared to the British Pound (GBP) often comes down to a mix of economic fundamentals, market sentiment, and geopolitical factors. Think of it like this: the Eurozone and the UK are two neighbors with very different stories. The Eurozone, despite its challenges, has often been seen as a more stable and unified bloc, especially during times of global uncertainty. Investors tend to flock to the Euro as a "safe haven" currency when things get rocky, partly because it’s backed by a larger economy and the European Central Bank (ECB) has historically maintained a relatively hawkish stance on inflation, which can boost confidence in the currency.
On the other hand, the GBP has had its fair share of turbulence, especially in recent years. Brexit, for instance, was a major shake-up for the UK economy, creating uncertainty around trade, investment, and growth prospects. While the UK has shown resilience, the lingering effects of Brexit, combined with political instability and concerns about slower economic growth, have sometimes weighed on the Pound. Additionally, the Bank of England (BoE) has occasionally been perceived as more cautious in its monetary policy compared to the ECB, which can make the Pound less attractive to investors seeking higher returns.
Of course, currency markets are incredibly dynamic, and the relationship between the Euro and GBP can shift based on short-term factors like interest rate decisions, inflation data, or even global risk appetite. But overall, the Euro’s strength often reflects its role as a cornerstone of the global economy, while the Pound’s struggles sometimes highlight the unique challenges faced by the UK. It’s like comparing two siblings—one might seem more steady, while the other is still finding its footing after a big life change.
THE UK ELECTION
Ah, the recent UK election definitely adds an interesting layer to the Euro-GBP dynamic! Elections always bring a wave of uncertainty, and this one was no exception. With Labour securing a decisive victory, there’s a sense of political stability after years of Conservative-led turmoil, particularly around Brexit and the economic fallout that followed. Markets generally like stability, so in the short term, this could be a positive for the Pound. However, the real test will be how the new government handles the UK’s economic challenges—things like sluggish growth, high public debt, and the cost-of-living crisis.
That said, the Euro’s strength isn’t just about what’s happening in the UK. The Eurozone has its own set of challenges, but it’s often seen as a more predictable and resilient bloc, especially when the UK is going through a transitional phase like this. Investors might be cautiously optimistic about the Pound under the new Labour government, but they’re also keeping a close eye on whether the promised reforms and fiscal policies will actually deliver growth. If the UK economy shows signs of a strong recovery, the Pound could gain ground. But for now, the Euro’s strength seems to reflect a broader confidence in the Eurozone’s ability to weather global storms, even as the UK is still navigating its post-Brexit and post-election landscape.
In a way, it’s like the Euro is the steady, experienced player on the field, while the Pound is the talented but unpredictable teammate trying to find its rhythm after a rough patch. The election might be a step in the right direction for the UK, but it’ll take time to see if it translates into long-term strength for the Pound.
