ASX 200 ~ Daily Swing Chart (Sept-Oct)CAPITALCOM:AU200 chart mapping/analysis for med-long term swing trades.
AUS200 trade ideas
AUS200 HARMONICS LONGI have a long after, that i discovered this beautiful kind of Harmonics, what swept the liq.grab. Main goal is to reach POC
ASX 200 Index: Bullish Momentum Gains Ground After 4-DayIntroduction:
After a four-day downward trend, the ASX 200 Index is showing signs of a bullish resurgence. In this article, we will analyze the recent price action, key technical indicators, and the potential factors driving the market as it attempts to break out of a crucial resistance level.
Breaking the Red Streak:
Following four consecutive days of declines, the ASX 200 Index has finally made an impressive upward move, finding strong support at the previous week's low price. This reversal has ignited hope among traders and investors, as it marks a crucial shift in sentiment. The next challenge on the horizon is the previous week's midpoint, currently positioned at 7239. Interestingly, this level coincides with several key moving averages, including the MA 50, MA 100, and MA 200. By this point, the MA 20 should ideally have already been surpassed, signifying further bullish momentum.
Overcoming Resistance:
Despite the recent gains, the market still faces a formidable obstacle in the form of an overhead trendline acting as resistance. However, the current setup suggests that this could be the moment when this resistance is successfully breached. The week ahead is expected to bring a deluge of economic news, which could act as a catalyst, increasing market volatility. This potential uptick in volatility is reflected in the Average True Range (ATR) indicator, which has started to point upward, indicating a potential new higher high.
RSI and Momentum:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is another critical indicator that has caught our attention. It exhibits a clear change in direction, now pointing upward. Importantly, the RSI is still some distance away from its overhead trendline resistance, leaving room for further bullish momentum to develop.
Zooming Out:
Taking a broader perspective by examining the weekly chart of the XJO, it appears that we may be in the midst of a Wyckoff accumulation phase, preparing for a breakout in Phase D. Confirmation of this pattern would come with the breakout of its macro channel. However, it's crucial to approach this potential breakout cautiously, taking things day by day and week by week, considering the evolving market dynamics.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, the ASX 200 Index has shown promising signs of recovery after a four-day decline. The recent breakout above the previous week's low, coupled with the convergence of key moving averages, suggests that the bullish momentum may continue. Traders should keep a close eye on the overhead trendline resistance and the impact of upcoming economic news on market volatility. The RSI and ATR indicators also provide valuable insights into the potential direction of the market. As we monitor these developments, it's important to remain cautious and vigilant in navigating the ever-changing landscape of the ASX 200 Index.
Will ASX find buyers at market?ASX200 - 24h expiry
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
We are trading at overbought extremes.
A lower correction is expected.
The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher.
We look to Buy at 7410 (stop at 7370)
Our profit targets will be 7510 and 7540
Resistance: 7600 / 7800 / 7910
Support: 7400 / 7315 / 7200
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
ASX macro analysis"ASX 200 Analysis and Outlook
We hold the view that the ASX 200 has been in a bull market since October 2022. Currently, we find ourselves in an accumulation phase, although we remain cautious and withhold confirmation of higher prices until we witness a decisive break above the 7313 price level.
Key Observations:
1. **Optimism Amidst Recent Close**: While last week's closing performance was not the most favorable, there are discernible signs of optimism. The ASX 200 (XJO) managed to close above a robust support level, sparking optimism that the upcoming week may usher in a gradual move to higher levels.
2. **Moving Averages Analysis**: In the previous week, we observed a breakdown below the MA 20 and MA 50, with the index managing to cling to the MA 100 level by a slim margin. A bullish reclaiming of these moving averages could pave the way for a favorable macro outlook. Our belief is that we could potentially reach new all-time highs (ATH) before the year's end. It's noteworthy that the current channel top has already rejected price on three occasions, and the fourth attempt could prove to be the breakthrough.
3. **Key Price Level at 7220**: Should the index close above the 7220 mark, this could establish a highly bullish outlook in the near term.
4. **RSI Insights**: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been displaying higher lows, and we do not anticipate a change in this trend at this juncture.
Summary:
In summary, our analysis indicates that the ASX 200 is undergoing an accumulation phase within an overarching bull market that commenced in October 2022. While we exercise caution and await a decisive move above 7313 to confirm higher prices, recent performance suggests a positive tone. Reclaiming the crucial moving averages and closing above the 7220 level could set the stage for a robust bullish outlook. We maintain optimism about the potential for the ASX 200 to reach new all-time highs before the conclusion of this year. It's important to stay vigilant and adapt to evolving market conditions."
Please note that market dynamics can change, so it's advisable to stay updated with the latest developments and adjust your trading strategy accordingly.
ASX200 to continue in the downward move?ASX200 - 24h expiry
Price action looks to be forming a top.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the high.
This is negative for sentiment and the downtrend has potential to return.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 7165 level.
We look to Sell at 7165 (stop at 7195)
Our profit targets will be 7025 and 7005
Resistance: 7150 / 7195 / 7245
Support: 7090 / 7000 / 6825
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
AU200AU200 is approaching a prime area in which we may see some opportunities to get short on this pair. We have an area of liquidity sitting above the ray line in which we may wick to.
What I will be looking for here is price to break above the ray line, push back below on the H1 timeframe, followed by a continuation on the M15 for a risk entry.
AU200 Short-Med Term OutlookAnticipating short-term bounce to fill gaps, re-test 23.6% Fib zone & create opportunities for Short positions.
Selling 'should' re-commence in September to test lower range re: parallel channel, in-line with Market Seasonality.
Over-extension into Golden Fib Range could signal warning of more extreme market capitulation (~6400).
Depends on break-outs either side of current indecision candle/price action, TBC.
ASXAUD - Sideways Trade PlanAlthough, a bullish divergence has formed on the RSI. There is strong resistance on R1 and good support on S1 which is keeping the movement within the range. We may set pending orders for buy and sell stop and on trigger manage the trade accordingly.
$XJO, promising future aheadCharting is really in the eyes of beholder, there is no fix rule to say how the price must comform to our opinions/preferences.
1. i will start the charting with a channel where the past 3 years of price movement being localizing around the MEDIAN line of the channel.
This charting is so macro that whatever event in the past and future have been factored in
I foresee (in my own humble opinion) that in next 6-12 months, ASX 200 index will be able to break above the resistance of around 7645 to propel higher in the upper section of the channel resistance
Next immediate target in 2-4 years will be around 8845.
*and i have to factored in the potential flash crash to wash up the weak bull in short term before it springs back up
Next Chart will show another way of drawing my channel
