AUS200 trade ideas
AUS200 - Major selloff expectedG'day Traders and Investors,
Note: Before reading this, I would like to declare that this is not a financial advice, I am not financial advisor. Any mentioned information is for education and entertainment purposes only and based on my trading and investing strategy. . I may or may not act according to this analysis.
AUS200 extended gain continuedly from the last few weeks during August reporting Season since Investors are so hyped with company's profit and dividend. However, expecting major selloff once profit has been declared and dividend received. In addition, with the fall of US market SPX500, NASDAQ100, DOW30.
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Cheers!
Jimmy
POTENTIAL 20% DUMP ON THE CARDS FOR XJO Calling a major top and new leg down starting tomorrow.
All the stars have aligned, perfectly positioned short (August 18th expiry - solid black vertical line) on Friday 4 points from the top (pink horizontal line).
Couldn't be happier with this bet. If it breaks down weak resistance at 6763 in a few days then we're off to the races! If it reverses and confirms itself I will close out my puts for a modest win and wait 2 weeks. If it reverses it may reach 7011 and then BOOM, down! I doubt it though.
Some big fish, likely a Hedge Fund, agreed with me though filling an order in the queue for 350 contracts for $3.4 million. If it pulls off for them they are looking at a gain of $1.8 million profit for 3 weeks work..Oh how the other half live!
By that time any rally will have definitely run out of steam, I'll reposition and have another crack at the September expiry. I will go as far as saying that we will then see my contention validated 100% without question for the monster 20-22% dump . At the moment I would give an 80% confidence rating for this dump that the cascade in price action begins tomorrow.
Interestingly the 6851 level we just passed last week was the Blow Off Top reached in the XJO at the peak of the Market (Nov 2007) prior to the biggest dump in modern history , the Housing induced Credit Crisis of 2008. How's them Apples..?
The Markets can only bear so much "Fed pivot" fantasy talk until Wall st & CNBC analysts wake up, smell the economic coffee and any notion of a Market bottom being in and the Fed Put riding to the rescue this time will be dispelled as the absolute QE Hopium bunk that it is!
If the Fed and/or the RBA takes that dangerously irresponsible/economically unthinkable path and capitulates or even relents on taming the WILD inflation here and across the World then you know "they" are DELIBERATELY trying to collapse the Real Economy and we NEED to prepare for HYPERINFLATION . This will facilitate widespread acceptance of the Totalitarian CBDC's and usher in The Great Reset which is a fancy way of saying a digitally enabled Global Communist Police State. Prepare NOW!
God bless and all the breasts!
xxCM
AUS200 on a tear - how much longer can it continue? The Australian 200 stock index continues to move higher, despite weakness in the states. A fiscal boost from China could be helping to spur the high risk index higher. Weaker Aussie employment data could also lead to a less aggressive RBA.
From a technical perspective, price is nearing a key resistance level at the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the 200-day SMA. The RSI is in overbought territory and price is more than 5% above its 50-day SMA, which called a top previously. 7.3k is the level to watch for an upside breakout, while a rejection and roll over would bring the 7k and 50% Fibonacci level into play.
ASX200 looking to breakout? ASX200 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 6985 (stop at 6906)
6980 continues to hold back the bears. The lack of interest is a concern for bears. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Further upside is expected.
Our profit targets will be 7157 and 7200
Resistance: 7160 / 7300 / 7630
Support: 6980 / 6800 / 6425
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OZ index fresh break ?Caveat Emptor / will there be a successful break ? who knows
:: Delicate. know your limit
:: manage own garden
>> It can be looong week to go. we shall respect prices either way.
#know your waiting period
#know your limit
#know your reasoning for entry - not comfortable with candle signal/no entry
Improve your think flow = improve on profitability.
All the best.
Not a guru.
From my land of sunshine, Malaysia.
ASX200 - Double Gartley'sOANDA:AU200AUD is setting up for another Gartley sell pattern.
This time we have the choice of 2 to choose from.
The first one comes in at 6730 the smaller pattern.
The second would see it going up into the 12th of July which would give it equal time and price.
These come on the back of the previous Gartley sell at 7297.
Its great when patterns line up one after the other.
I hope this helps. Enjoy the day.👍👍
THE WRITINGS ON THE WALLThe attached Chart is a revised and simplified version of my previous post that maps out the course of what I think will happen to the ASX S&P 200: XJO until this Bear Market hits an ultimate bottom.
To my horror, we just had what looks to be a fakeout to the downside of a very conspicuous Bear Pennant on Friday, followed by a suspiciously 'firm' green print today. I haven't seen the volumes yet as that info wont be available till tomorrow as an annoying feature of the piss poor, yet super expensive data provided by the ASX. Whilst the Market searches for a bottom I'd expect there will be confusing and contradictory signals amongst heightened volatility as par for the Course anyway.
Having liquidated most of my positions early last week I am aghast that there are now rumours circulating that the Fed might ease off the Inflation killing pedal (eeek!), hence the reason for this retarded Market's momentary optimism:
After a manipulated 9.1% CPI which vastly understates the true picture on the street and a PPI at 11% (!!!) , Jerome please, say it aint so..? As whatever you do the over paid geniuses at the RBA will dutifully follow your lead like demented puppy dogs with not a brain cell amongst them.
Give me Recession over Hyperinflation any day of the week and twice on Sundays! Where as the former is just a severe "go slow" for the entire Economy, the latter means complete and utter Societal collapse and the violence and political chaos that accompanies such a catastrophe. Pray that we don't get Hyperinflation. I have lived through 2 recessions in my lifetime, and granted I was much younger in the 70's and 90's, but I don't remember them as being particularly, extraordinarily difficult times..Hyperinflation? Well we all know how that ends.
Anyway, basing one's investment decisions on the insane monetary policies of the ultimate Socialist Control Device in the hope of Govt funny money riding to the rescue of one's portfolio is just slightly unreasonable and frankly CRAZY!...but hey, in #clownworld anything goes! An investor can only use their own logic to make Portfolio decisions otherwise investing really is no less gambling than a game of Roulette.
As such I'm putting the confusing, nascent breakout of the Bear Pennant down to Options expiry in the US on Friday causing a short squeeze, the swirling rumours of a dovish Fed epiphany and an over exuberant dip buying mentality that was conditioned into the Market post the Central Bank Puts that were executed after the COVID Crash to manipulate Markets to ATH's across the Planet over the last two years.
Sticking to my guns on the basis of rationality and logic (or maybe stubborn cognitive dissonance), the above Chart has one major change from the previous post and that is the inclusion of a major Bear Market Rally which I believe will come after the next leg down. I dont have any Puts in but I would hate to be wrong and it rallies from here having sold some positions last week at a decent loss.
Anyway, end of the day it doesn't really matter..."in the long run, we're all dead."
All the breasts and God Bless.
xxCM
ASX200 4H, could we see a new test of 6715?Happy Monday. Thanks for tuning in. Today we’re looking at the ASX200 as a few things point to buyer control. Since last Friday, we continue to watch the new fast uptrend remain in play. Buyers are also starting to break out of a wedge pattern, but we want to see if price can get back up to and break 6715.
A move up to and break of that level could start to tell us that a new short-term up trend is underway.
Thanks to all our subscribers and to the trading community for watching today’s update. We wish you good trading for the rest of the day.
AU200 sell off to continueSo far AU200 did not show divergence neither on 4h nor daily timeframe, therefore probability of continuation of the downtrend is pretty high. A pretty nice triangle (i.e. must be 4th sub-wave in a motive wave) has been building from mid June and looks complete by that moment.
Probably would be wise to wait for confirmation in a form of a break-out of a bottom of the triangle and step in around 6,555 area for may be 350 points profit.
I HATE TO SAY IT but...BETTER LATE THAN NEVER.Its been a long time since I last published which has been partially through being too busy and also some serious chronic illnesses with which I suffer but enough about Me.
I present you this on the night before what I expect is going to be a disastrous print for US Inflation and what will catalyse the next leg down in what amounts to a catastrophe for Equities. I could be wrong in which case this post will not age well at all, but I highly doubt it...lol!
I am 99% sure Market Fundamentals will bear out this move(pun intended) and prove the following TA Chart prediction more or less accurate.
My TA skills have vastly improved since last posting having learnt many advanced techniques and unique insights I believe are groundbreaking. As such I wont be explaining the Chart I will leave it up to the viewer to utilise their skill and insight to interpret what you can see. Comments and questions are welcome.
Now to the fun part and the part which requires the most balls and that is prediction:
The ASX is going to dump heavily another leg to approx. 5780 , consolidate for an indeterminate short time, maybe just under a month, until the next major drawdown which will see us hit an ultimate bottom of 4860 taking us all the way back to the Double top experienced in MARCH 2010 AND MARCH 2011 before the bear finally capitulates and we make a tedious, grinding movement that may last several years. We may indeed never recover the same to the levels prior to the GREAT RESET that Global Scum Inc have planned for 2030 saving some MAJOR MIRACLE !!! Fingers crossed eh..
There will be individual stocks that will do well in that intervening period so Equities will exclusively become a stock pickers game but the Indexes are kaput and will take years to reclaim the triple top to we hit in August 2021, January and April 2022 !
The US is headed back to support at the peak hit in Feb 2020 prior to the Pandemic, wiping out all the Fed funny money Market gains since then.
As such the Bear remains firmly in charge.
God Bless
xxCM
My Short Mid Long EMA Band + 3 Bar Turn + Last 3 Close AverageThe Green Line is 10 EMA (sema) and Red Line is 20 EMA (mema), when sema above mema, overall trend is up and when sema below mema, overall trend is down. The gap of sema and mema times 2,3,4,5 times to project the band of support and resistance. It is like Bollinger Band that expand and shrink to tell the market is trending or moving sideway with direction.
The Top and Bottom triangles are from the comparsion of sema (10 ema), mema (20 ema) and lema (60 ema) relative location and the change from last bar. e.g. sema above/below mema and current gap compare with last bar gap is expanding/shrinking to determine the color and location of the triangle.
The close price is plot with color by comparing current close against last two close, The color also determine by the close vs last three close average. Green is up and Red is down, in between is yellow.
The close color and location compare with the band and the top and bottom triangles might help to tell the next movement.
ASX 200 drills lower thanks to commodity stocksAustralia’s main share index, the ASX 200, closed lower on Wednesday by 0.5%. This fall could have been a lot worse If not for technology and financial stocks mitigating the rout in other major Australian sectors.
Australian Securities Exchange’s Metals & Mining Index fell by a massive 5.6%. Heavyweights in the mining sectors, Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO), Newcrest Mining (ASX: NCM), and Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG) lead the way, falling by 7.4%, 6.6%, and 4.9%, respectively.
The ASX Energy Index also declined by 5.8% as crude oil prices plummeted 9% overnight Tuesday. Two of the most significant index drivers, Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) and Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC), slumped by 6.9% and 3.7%, respectively.
Virus and lockdown concerns appear to be the main factors suppressing commodity and energy stocks in Australia.
Domestic tech stocks did briefly push the ASX 200 into green territory intraday but were ultimately overcome by the strong headwinds of commodity stocks. The big tech winner of the day was Zip Co (ASX: ZIP), rising by a phenomenal 12.8%. Financials were also up by 0.9% as three of the "Big-four" seek to benefit from the Reserve Bank of Australia lifting its benchmark interest rate by another 50-basis points.
On the technical side, we can see on the daily chart that the ASX200 has been on a clear downtrend since April.
The index is currently moving in a tight range between 6700 and 6560.
A break above the resistance at 6700 could potentially retest the 6810-level area, creating a lower high of the downtrend before continuing to the downside. In consideration of the long-term scenario, a close below 6560, depending on market sentiments, could eventually drive the index down to the 6000 psychological support level.
The ASX 200 might struggle to maintain short-term upside movements. At least until China moves past its Covid concerns and lockdowns in the country no longer threatens to sideline its commercial operations and consumer demand.
AUS200 : DOWNTREND | PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS | SHORT SETUP ⚡️Welcome back Traders,
Detailed analysis from INDEX_INSIDERS Team.
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