AUS200 Weekly Idea 4.8.24A bit late publishing.
Same Strategy - Setup based on Multi Timeframes Highs and Lows, IB's and OB's.
AUS200 trade ideas
AUS200 - Bullish Momentum Incoming!PEPPERSTONE:AUS200 is about to break the resistance trendline. It should be noted that PEPPERSTONE:AUS200 is in a bullish trend on higher timeframes. Currently, there is bullish divergence on 1 hr and break of resistance trendline can potentially lead to bullish price action!
The RBA to join the rate cut party in May?Aus Q4 CPI came in at 4.1% yoy, with the trimmed mean measure at 4.2% yoy – both were nicely below the economist's median forecast, and importantly below the RBA’s own forecasts of 4.5% for both metrics.
We also saw the more timely monthly (December) CPI print coming in at 3.4%; a 90bp improvement – and just 40bp away from the 2-3% target band.
Next week’s RBA meeting looms large, and the tone of the statement should reflect a bank seeing inflation moving towards target, yet they will make it clear this is no time for victory laps and more needs to be done.
The RBA will be enthused by the fact core inflation is below the RBA’s cash rate – subsequently, we have a positive real cash rate for the first time since 2016 - this is a small but welcomed victory for Bullock and co.
With both core and headline CPI nicely below the November Statement on Monetary Policy forecasts, we question the possibility of tweaks to their projections for June and December 2024 CPI. These currently sit at 4% by June and 3.5% by December, so any revisions to these estimates could result in some solid movement in interest rate futures and by extension the AUD and AUS200.
Aussie economic data has generally come in below market consensus expectations of late, so the pricing of expected RBA policy – through interest rate futures - has been part-validated in today’s CPI print. Looking at Aussie interest rate futures, the market prices no chance of a 25bp cut in either the February or March RBA meeting, and if anything, the RBA statements at these meetings need to lay the groundwork for cuts – although the tone of the guidance will be data-dependent.
While much of the disinflation has been driven by tradables, a 25bp cut in May is a real possibility and the market prices this at 50% - so essentially a coin toss. We see two 25bp cuts priced by year-end.
Eyes on Gov Bullock
Gov Bullock speaks next Friday (09:30 AEDT) and while she speaks after the RBA meeting statement and SoMP (both on Tuesday 14:30 AEDT) her testimony will be scrutinized and will move interest rate pricing, and by extension the AUD. I think we’ll have a fair idea of the timeline for potential policy easing from here.
Gov Bullock has a straightforward job – time rate cuts perfectly. Obviously, that’s easy to say but tough to do in principle but if we focus on the capital markets, we see little risk of an implied policy mistake and we see the ASX200 at all-time highs, with bank equity and consumer-sensitive stocks in rude health. AUD 1-month implied volatility resides at 12-month lows, while the Aussie housing market shows few concerns.
I guess this is an issue with setting policy on quarterly core inflation -it is a slow-moving beast and clearly a lagging indicator the fact it is still 120bp from target feels like a hawkish Bullock may keep the peddle to the metal for now. The market will put more weight on the monthly CPI reads.
I also consider the frequency of central bank speeches, and this is where the RBA, the ECB and the Fed differ in a big way – In Australia, we simply don’t have the plethora of central bankers that speak almost every day, and it's often a long time between drinks for the RBA speeches. This is quite refreshing, but in times like this it can be useful to know how each member stands, giving almost real-time commentary on policy.
Anyhow, the markets speak out – the door is ajar for a cut in May but easing will be gradual relative to the Fed, ECB, and other G10 CBs. We also see the floor in the RBA cash rate priced at 3.5%, so loosely four 25bp cuts are priced to a ‘terminal’ level.
The RBA won't try and keep pace with the Fed, they will work on their own merit and focus on their set of economics – either way, the trajectory for CPI suggests we will join the rate cut party and a ‘soft landing’ seems to be the more probable outcome, at least judging by the message from the markets.
AUS200 - Bullish Trend on Daily time FrameAUS200 - Bullish Trend on Daily time Frame
Analyzing previous data, one can see that after making HH, trend retraces to Fib 0.38 always and Fib 0.5 most of the time and Fib 0.61 occasionally. Moreover, bullish trend continues for 10 to 12 days and then re-traces for 3 to 5 days. And then again it resumes its upward trend.
Therefore, two types of trades can be taken:-
1. Long Trade while it is in uptrend,
2. Short trade while it is retracing. Since here we are talking on Daily time frame, therefore, one can take trades comfortably.
indices looks hot these days The inverse head and shoulders chart pattern is a bullish chart formation that signals a potential reversal of a downtrend. It is the opposite of the head and shoulders chart pattern, which is a bearish formation.2
The inverse head and shoulders chart pattern consists of three (3) troughs: the first and third troughs are roughly equal in depth and are known as "shoulders", while the second trough is deeper and is called the "head".
A Description of the Inverse Head and Shoulders Chart Pattern
This chart pattern formation is commonly used in technical analysis to predict the reversal of a downtrend. It is a bullish signal that is essentially the reverse of the regular head and shoulders chart pattern, which is a bearish indicator. The structure of the inverse head and shoulders chart pattern is described as follows:
Left Shoulder: After a downtrend, the price of the respective asset makes a low and then rallies to a higher point, forming the left shoulder.
Head: Following the formation of the left shoulder, the price declines to a point lower than the left shoulder and then rallies again, forming the head.
Right Shoulder: Finally, the price declines again but not as low as the previous decline or the head, and then rallies one more time, forming the right shoulder. The right shoulder is typically roughly equal in depth to the left shoulder.
Neckline: A trendline is drawn connecting the high points (or "peaks") after the formation of each shoulder and the head. This line serves as a level of resistance that the price must break through to confirm the pattern.
The Theory is taken From the below link
www.investopedia.com
but Stops below 6935 on DCB and target 7900 looks achievable on 1D timeframe, which is 1:3 RR.
please do your own study.
All the best.
Gratify if you appreciate the practice then you can like it, share it and
If you want me to investigate any chart for you then would cherish doing that for you.
Thank you for your time and support.
Stay safe.
AU200 - RSI-14 Divergence indicated at trend reversal. SHORT trade is in order. Trend lines on RSI-14 and CandleStick chart are augmenting each other towards Bearish trend establishment. Therefore, place entry as per Fibonacci retracement at 0.38 for entry. S/L should be previous LH. Set TP as per risk/reward ratio of 1%.
AUS200 Weekly Idea 4.1.24Always keeping it simple with Multi-Time Frame Highs and Lows, IB's and OB's.
(previous sell levels still marked)
High Level Overview
AUS200 Overall Bullish and is at it's highest high.
Monthly RSI is looking seeking to purchase higher, although, we are due for a pullback on the lower timeframe.
Break of structure could lead to a test of levels 7216-7507-7341-7164-6972 to key level at 6849. If we break lower to 6400 we can expect a change of trend.
Short AU200Hi, a high-risk high reward play on the AU200 with a break and retest of the rising wedge with bearish RSI divergence. If playing along place stoploss above last swing high and wait for a break of trend on lower timeframe will also bring stoploss to breakeven when safe to do so. Good luck 🍀
ASX200 to find sellers at market price?AU200AUD - 24h expiry
The correction higher is assessed as being complete.
We expect a reversal in this move.
Risk//Reward would be good to call a sell from current levels.
A move through 7725 will confirm the bearish momentum.
The measured move target is 7625.
We look to Sell at 7750 (stop at 7790)
Our profit targets will be 7650 and 7625
Resistance: 7750 / 7775 / 7800
Support: 7700 / 7675 / 7625
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
XJO Short - Head and Shoulders, MACD Bearish DivergenceXJO has recently broken out of a rising wedge on a daily. MACD has now also crossed, showing bearish divergence on a daily.
Finally, as at today's close, XJO has completed a head and shoulders pattern on an hourly.
The measured move is 150 points to 7,550 although 7,565 looks a little more realistic.
Stops just above the right shoulder at 7,750.
BBOZ time!
ASX200 - Breakout! Target 10800After the v-shaped recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, we have seen a rally to the 7650 handle, where the market went sideways for the later 100-plus weeks. The accumulation stage is about to end as the 7650 resistance price was finally broken.
The RSI is above 4o and moving above 60, which indicates bull market conditions.
The composite index has shown a bullish divergence with price, also found in RSI.
The Gann time count of 144 weeks from the prior high, is almost complete and should align will the Gann boxes count of 1 complete Octave.
Furthermore, the 144-week bullish wedge formation forming in the chart.
A calculation of a possible target is 10,000 points, using Fibonacci extensions, but more likely 10800 using Gann box techniques.
AU200 remains mixed and volatile.ASX200 - 24h expiry
Pivot resistance is at 7680.
We expect a reversal in this move.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
A move through 7625 will confirm the bearish momentum.
The measured move target is 7550.
We look to Sell at 7650 (stop at 7686)
Our profit targets will be 7560 and 7540
Resistance: 7650 / 7675 / 7700
Support: 7600 / 7565 / 7550
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
ASXAUD Australia 200 Bearish Opportunity - SMC FVG Order BlockASXAUD Australia 200 (ASX 200) Bearish Trade Setup - Potential Reversal at SMC FVG Order Block
🔍 Technical Analysis:
The ASX 200 is approaching a critical zone on the chart known as the SMC (Smart Money Concept) FVG (Fresh Virginal Ground) Order Block.
Historical price action suggests that this area has served as a strong resistance level in the past.
Key technical indicators may be signaling potential bearish momentum.
📊 Trade Plan:
Entry Point: Consider initiating a bearish position upon a clear rejection or bearish candlestick pattern within the SMC FVG Order Block.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss above the recent swing high to manage risk effectively.
Take Profit: Target potential support levels or previous swing lows as profit objectives.
🚨 Risk Management:
Implement proper risk management strategies, risking only a small percentage of your trading capital on this trade.
Stay informed about economic events that might impact the ASX 200 and adjust your position accordingly.
📈 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Trading involves risk, and it's essential to conduct your own analysis. Trade responsibly, using only the capital you can afford to lose. Set stop-loss orders and manage risk diligently.
👉 Note: Regularly monitor the charts for real-time price action and adjust your strategy based on market conditions.
Happy Trading! 🌐💹
ASX to continue in the upward move?ASX200 - 24h expiry
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Although we remain bullish overall, a correction is possible with plenty of room to move lower without impacting the trend higher.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 7650 will confirm the bullish momentum. The measured move target is 7725.
We look to Buy at 7610 (stop at 7570)
Our profit targets will be 7710 and 7735
Resistance: 7650 / 7700 / 7725
Support: 7625 / 7600 / 7575
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
EURUSD - NZDUSD - AUS200 Trade RecapThree positions taken last week, two breakevens and one loss. Great trades nonetheless, two structures I would take over and over again with the EURUSD position being on the higher risk side of things. Risk management plan stuck to, frequency is picking up just in the first month of the year as expected. Trade safe and responsible
