CAC40 Targeting Daily Trendline TestIn this update we review the recent price action in the CAC40 and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target.
FRA40 trade ideas
FR40 CAC40:FUNDAMENTAL NEWS+TECHNICAL VIEW | LONG 🔔France: Growth Slows as Repercussions of Russia-Ukraine Conflict Darken Inflation and Fiscal Outlooks
Rising spending in dealing with economic and geopolitical repercussions of Russia’s further incursion in the Ukraine additionally weigh on France’s already weakened fiscal outlook as recovery slows, exacerbating long-run credit challenges.
Our baseline economic forecast of France is for modest recovery with real growth of 3.6% for 2022 before 2.1% in 2023 (-0.3pps), as growth slows across the euro area.
Under a more stressed economic scenario, with higher and more long-lasting price pressures, output growth slows more significantly. However, we assume the energy price shock proves temporary, given futures of oil and gas prices indicating a downward price trend over a next 12 months.
One of the main knock-on effects is pressure on government to mitigate inflation and raise defence expenditure
One of the main adverse knock-on effects of Russia’s further invasion of the Ukraine for France is pressure the government at this stage faces in mitigating impact of rising inflation as well as to raise defence spending – just as, moreover, recovery from the Covid-19 crisis and associated revenue growth have started slowing.
The resulting excess deficit puts pressure on French public finances, which have already deteriorated under the context of the Covid-19 crisis, leaving the country with limited room to raise spending further. French general government debt reached around 115% of GDP in 2021, up from 98% of GDP in 2019.
On 16 March, the government announced a fresh package of measures aimed at provision of relief for households and firms hit by rising energy and other prices, including a discount of 15-euro cents a litre on petrol between April and July, energy-price related subsidies for firms and the strengthening of state-backed corporate liquidity facilities.
Including previously introduced budgetary support since last September, these measures amount to an aggregate cost of EUR 25bn (circa 1% of GDP). The government has as well started discussion around an increase of civil service salaries in response to rising costs.
France does have the advantage, as compared with Germany especially, of comparatively low reliance on oil and gas imports, given Electricité de France’s large park of nuclear power stations, helping ultimately contain France’s rate of inflation as compared with that of the rest of the euro area and expected to cap additional government compensation paid to households and businesses.
CAC40 up or down?I like this market because if you have the right set up, that can be very profitable. And it’s not as volatile as NAS100.
As of today it’s interesting situation.
We have bearish candle stick - but not very strong, MACD - bullish crossover coming soon.
RSI is in the middle but doesn’t have enough momentum to rally to the upside.
Russia/Ukraine - we’re not sure what will happen, Omicron is not such a threat anymore.
inflation in Europe is rising, I don’t really think ECB will announce higher rates tomorrow, not just yet.
What I suspect we might stay where we are for now, to gain some momentum, unless ECB decides to rise the rates, then we will go down.
Ichimuko:FRA40 The strategy of shorting below the trendIchimuko:FRA40 The strategy of shorting below the trend
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French Cac40 refusing downtrendAgainst odds the french stock market believs really to be stronger than the rest of the world. Strange, but we will see, week not yet over...
CAC40 Trinnisia Trades My forecast 2022Only for educational purposes, I’m not a professional trader. I want to see if I’m right. Based on what I observed in 2021 and Elliott Waves.
We’re about to see the third wave(after we finish with the second) which will be longer than ‘Santa rally’. I expect market to go up until some time in March. Then we will start a correction phase ending some time in May.
Let me know what you think.
POSSIBLE SHORT ON FRA.40The market has been bullish for quite some time now and apparently we have reached our highest high. Therefore with that being established, I am getting the idea that since we have reached our major resistance zone again, we may have a double top in our hands which may present a very good opportunity for us to take the shorts. Please let me know what you guys think.
CAC40 where does it go?I see two options:
1. Christmas rally, we break 7000 and go higher
2. Last one try, we get rejected and go towards 200EMA on daily chart.
It could be a bull trap. I don’t see enough momentum, especially with next wave of covid.
We all know 2022 will be hard for the markets, they’ve slowed down, the questions is when the downtrent starts?
Very risky at the moment, we can go either way.
I’m not a professional advisor - trade carefully!
