DAX Extension impulse Dax looking to perform a nest with expected targets from fib extension based one lower degree. Expected targets 1.00 / 1.123/161.8
GER40 trade ideas
DAX Index Analysis.**DAX Index Analysis: Current Trends and Outlook**
**Current Price:** €21,656.13 (as of January 31, 2025.
**Recent Movement:** The DAX Index has shown a robust upward movement, particularly evident in the recent daily sessions. The price is currently near its recent high of €21,656.13, reflecting strong market momentum.
**Technical Indicators:**
- **Moving Averages:** The short-term moving average (blue line) is positioned above the long-term moving average (orange line), confirming the bullish trend.
- **RSI:** The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 70, indicating overbought conditions. This suggests the index may face some short-term selling pressure.
- **MACD:** The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a bullish trend, with the MACD line above the signal line, supporting the positive outlook.
**Fundamental Factors:**
- **Economic Growth:** Germany's robust economic performance and strong corporate earnings have been key drivers of the DAX's recent performance.
- **Interest Rates:** The European Central Bank's (ECB) accommodative monetary policy continues to support equity markets, including the DAX.
- **Global Markets:** Positive sentiment in global markets, driven by optimism around trade agreements and economic recovery, has further boosted the DAX.
**Outlook:**
- **Resistance Levels:** The DAX is currently testing the resistance level around €21,700. A successful breakout above this level could lead to further gains.
- **Support Levels:** Key support levels are seen near €21,200 and €20,800. These levels could provide buying opportunities if the index faces any pullbacks.
- **Market Sentiment:** The positive economic outlook and strong corporate earnings continue to support the bullish trend in the DAX. However, investors should keep an eye on potential risks, such as geopolitical tensions and changes in ECB policy.
**Conclusion:**
The DAX Index is in a strong uptrend, supported by positive technical and fundamental factors. Traders should monitor key resistance and support levels for potential trading opportunities. A breakout above €21,700 could lead to new highs, while any corrections may provide strategic buying opportunities for long-term investors.
UPDATE - Target hit 20893 DAX showing sideways before the run upTarget 20,893 hit where Dax formed a Falling Wedge (broke above).
We then had some sideways motion, before the price rocketed up and hit the target of 20,893 recently.
Now, we can expect a bit of sideways motion where we will wait for another bull setup and then will most likely look to go long again.
Looking good for 2025.
GER30 POSSIBLE SELL?The market is currently showing a possible Daily divergence that could form based on what the RSI is showing. On the 4HR TF, the market seems to be forming a possible reversal pattern which could lead to a possible SELL.
We could see SELLERS coming in strong should the current level hold.
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Germany 40 Index – Charting the UnchartedThe week started badly for the Germany 40 index as it was dragged lower by the sharp dip in market sentiment created by the fears around Chinese artificial intelligence DeepSeek’s potential impact as a disruptor in the AI space.
However, that early Monday drop to lows at 21,078 didn’t last long, with strong earnings updates from SAP (No.1 weighting in index) which saw the stock to print new all-time highs, and Siemens (No.3 weighting in index), helping to reverse the falls and start a rebound that has seen the Germany 40 register yet another record high at 21,791.
Not only that, the ECB cut interest rates for the Eurozone, as expected by 25bps (0.25%) to 2.75% on Thursday, and President Lagarde maintained the central bank’s dovish stance, suggesting risks to growth are tilted to the downside and that inflation will fluctuate before settling around the central banks 2% target, while indicating policymakers remained open to more interest rate cuts, if incoming data between now and the next meeting on March 6th supported it.
So, looking forward, it seems that the macroeconomic backdrop may be more settled for the Germany 40 index, although excessive long positioning could be a catalyst for a correction at some stage.
What do the technicals say?
Technical Update: Germany 40 Index
The current phase of price strength continues to be seen within the Germany 40 index, a move that has consistently posted new all-times. Of course, this means the index is now trading in uncharted territory, where it can often be difficult to establish the next valid resistance levels.
That said, technical analysis can help in this regard. By using Fibonacci extensions of recent price weakness, we can project potential resistance points, on which traders may be focusing. This doesn’t guarantee sellers being found at these levels, but it is worthwhile to be aware of these possible resistance levels over coming trading sessions.
Resistance: Fibonacci Extensions
Calculating extension levels using the last price correction seen between the December 13th high at and the December 20th low at, indicates that traders may now watch how resistance at 21780, the 138% extension level is defended, as this may be an area at which fresh sellers emerge again.
However, while much depends on future price trends, a break higher above this level on a closing basis may result in further price strength towards 22005, which is the 162% extension level, or even 22350, which is the higher 200% extension.
Support: What is the Germany 40 was to dip from here?
Of course, just because an asset is posting new all-time highs, doesn’t mean that price strength can continue indefinitely without downside corrections. With that in mind, we must be aware of possible support levels that if broken may indicate that a deeper phase of price weakness is about to emerge.
Traders may well be watching the 21432 level, which is half of the latest strength, as a potential support, if a sell-off is seen. Breaks below this level could skew risks towards further price weakness, with focus may be then shifting to the weeks low at 21078.
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DAX H4 | Pullback support at 38.2% Fib retracementDAX (GER30) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 21,514.06 which is a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 21,080.00 which is a level that sits under swing-low support.
Take profit is at 22,033.93 which is a level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
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de30 analysisde30 analysis
Before we start talking
I would like to tell you that we have a history in the world of analysis that is trustworthy without errors in the medium and long term and everything that is here on our page and our official pages is an accurate analysis of all markets and we had an old update about the targets at the level of 20700 and 21400 and indeed we are exceeding this level and we are now at the level of 21685
Now we have this chart and I confirm that we have upcoming levels up to 22600
If your goal is to invest, you must be patient because patience is the basis of trading and your goals are certain, but with patience and not dealing with the emotions of fear
We will be with you step by step about the markets or any new updates about any market
Elliott Wave View: DAX Pullback Should Find BuyersShort Term Elliott Wave View in DAX suggests that rally from 11.19.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves nesting impulse. Up from 11.19.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 20522.82 and wave 2 dips ended at 19649.87. The Index nested higher in wave 3. Up from wave 2, wave i ended at 20024.79 and wave ii ended at 19833.82. Wave iii higher ended at 20391.17 and wave iv ended at 20255.85. Wave v higher ended at 20480.49 which completed wave (i).
Pullback in wave (ii) ended at 20025.28. Index has resumed higher in wave (iii). Up from wave (ii), wave i ended at 20362.59 and wave ii ended at 20234.26. Wave iii higher ended at 21330.87 and wave iv ended at 21212.25. Wave v higher ended at 21491.51 which completed wave (iii). Pullback in wave (iv) ended at 21081.61. Expect wave (v) to end soon which should complete wave ((i)) in higher degree. Afterwards, wave ((ii)) pullback should correct cycle from 12.20.2024 low before the rally resumes. Near term, as far as pivot at 19648.57 low stays intact, expect dips to find buyers in 3, 7, 11 swing for more upside.
DAX Wave Analysis 29 January 2025
- DAX broke the key resistance level 21500.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 22000.00
DAX index recently broke the key resistance level 21500.00 – which stopped the previous minor impulse wave i earlier this month.
The price earlier reversed up from the upper trendline of the daily up channel from August (which is acting as the support after it was broken previously in December).
Given the powerful daily uptrend, DAX index can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 22000.00 (which is the target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 5).
DAX- Short setting up (DE30 or DE40)The Dax is entering liquidity and supply and is looking like it may be getting ready for a short trade.
GER40: AMD SetupOn the chart, an AMD setup has been identified with an entry from the middle of the manipulation. The target is a take-profit beyond the ATH, as there is no reason to move lower. A slight wick touch to the lower levels is possible.
Scenario:
The price is slowly descending but is expected to deliver to the ATH during the New York session.
The current POC is at the last low, confirming the system's integrity.
This zone is also an OTE zone, serving as an ideal re-entry point, once again proving its effectiveness.
Watch for confirmations on lower timeframes to find the perfect entry moment.
DAX to turnaround?DE30EUR - 24h expiry
We are trading at overbought extremes.
A higher correction is expected.
Short term momentum is bearish.
Short term oscillators have turned negative.
Offers ample risk/reward to sell at the market.
A break of the recent low at 21166 should result in a further move lower.
We look for losses to be extended today.
We look to Sell at 21249 (stop at 21351)
Our profit targets will be 20961 and 20881
Resistance: 21250 / 21370 / 21531
Support: 21166 / 21100 / 20950
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DAX Short 4HGood morning, TradingView friends!
I’m excited to share my latest market forecast with you. This setup uses Fibonacci and psychological levels as our key indicators.
First up, we’re looking at the 21,405 level. It's an important Fibonacci point, and I believe the price will bounce back here, heading towards the trend line. Next, I expect the ascending trend line to hold strong, guiding the price to a crucial psychological and Fibonacci level at 21,500. From there, we might see a 4-hour and daily correction.
For confirming these moves, keep an eye on the lower time frames. A good sign to watch for is an M-pattern with a Lower High on the second leg.
Can't wait to hear your thoughts and keep the conversation going!
Falling towards pullback support?DAX40 (DE40) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 20,446.03
1st Support: 19,673.96
1st Resistance: 21,471.10
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Future DAX IMOWe can see the DAX has rocketed up in the past 2 weeks with very little momentum loss until the 24/01/2025.
It made all time highs without finding a new resistant level as of yet, meaning we're most likely looking at a routine bounce from the 21500 mark and more than likely, a steep downfall until we get back to 21000.
Looking in depth at all time frames, it wouldn't surprise me if we fall all the way back to its current major resistance price (18850) and then potentially moving back even higher towards the 2nd half of the year.
#202504 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: By full bear mode I don’t mean you just short 21394 and hope for the best. You wait for selling pressure first. Friday we got some decent selling pressure to the 1h 20ema which held since Tuesday. I expect another leg up first before we break below 21300. We have left behind 4 consecutive bull gaps and on Friday we saw the first one close immediately. This buying was as climactic and unsustainable as it get’s and having those this late in a trend is more often the end than the beginning of a new leg up. Can this go to 22000 before it goes to 20000 again? 10% if you ask me but that’s just a guess and as good as anyone’s.
current market cycle: Bull trend (very climactic move last week, market needs to take a breather or will outright crumble again)
key levels: 20500 - 21800
bull case: Bulls are in full control. This has not changed since the big breakout on Wednesday. They are still trading above the 1h and higher tf 20ema and until we break below, they remain in full control. Problem for the bulls is the climactic unsustainable nature of the move, very late in a trend. Everyone know’s it’s a suckers rally/short squeeze but that does never matter and they can just continue higher. We could easily test down to 20500 with a quick 1-3 day move, so bulls need to think about taking profits. Many will exit when market begins to stall because the up move was basically down above the 1h 20ema and once we break below, that premise is gone and I doubt many want to risk 500 points in hope to print 22000.
Invalidation is below 20500.
bear case: Bears know that the dax has not been this expensive for 25 years and want blood. The odds are decent that we go down at least 2000 points over the next weeks and bigger bears begin to scale into shorts at this high because the market broke above 2 bullish patterns and the odds of that happening this late in a trend are low. Bears finally closed a gap and now they need follow-through below the 1h 20ema. First target is to retest the high of the previous gap 21162 and see if bulls want to defend it. There is also the 4h 20ema around that price and those will be 2 big magnets early next week. My preferred path forward would be a very quick move down to 20500 to retest the breakout price and the bull trend line. There I expect buyers to come around big time.
Invalidation is above 22200.
short term: Neutral if we stay above the 1h ema. Once below, I want to see 21162 and then 21000. If we stay above, I will long scalp for 21500 and maybe 21600 and will look for shorts there.
medium-long term from 2024-01-25: No more bullish talk. Full bear mode.
current swing trade: Soon.
chart update: Marked new targets for both sides.
Elliott Wave View on DAX Nesting Higher in Impulsive StructureShort Term Elliott Wave View in DAX shows that the Index breaks to new all-time high confirming the right side remains bullish. The rally from 11.19.2024 low looks to be nesting in an impulsive structure. Up from 11.19.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 20522.82 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 19649.87. The Index resumed higher from there in wave 3 in a nest.
Up from wave 2, wave i ended at 20024.79 and wave ii pullback ended at 19833.82. The Index resumed higher in wave iii which ended at 20391.17. Pullback in wave iv ended at 20255.85. The final leg wave v ended at 20480.49 which also completed wave (i) in higher degree. Index then pullback in wave (ii) which ended at 20025.28. Index has resumed higher again. Up from wave (ii), wave i ended at 20362.59 and pullback in wave ii ended at 20234.26. Wave iii higher ended at 21330.87 and pullback in wave iv ended at 21212.25. Expect wave v to end soon and this should complete wave (iii) in higher degree. Afterwards, pullback in wave (iv) should find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
2025-01-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bull channel continues and we are at the top again. At this point it’s possible this spikes above the channel to print 22k. Wild to live through this tbh. 21700 likely next, bears need something below 21500 and then 21380. It’s beyond climactic and overbought.
current market cycle: bull trend - blow-off top
key levels: 21200 - 21700
bull case: Bulls are in full control. No one know’s where it stops. Look for longs. Nothing new to report. Channel is holding and we are just moving higher without much resistance. Nothing changed. Again.
Invalidation is below 21300.
bear case: Bears need to start closing the gaps. This also has not changed. The bullish channel lives and until we break out of it, there isn’t much to analyse. All of my bullish targets are met and this looks just like the climactic end but who know’s where it will stop… Bears have nothing to think about here. Way too early for any short.
Invalidation is above 21700.
short term: Bullish until bears do more. Trade the channel.
medium-long term from 2024-01-23: Market hit 21600 and now it’s about being patient until we sell-off again. I won’t be picking tops again. I just wait now.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Buying near the 1h 20ema as mentioned the last couple of days.
DAX 40 Remains in Strong Overbought ZoneThe German index has recorded eight consecutive sessions of gains, appreciating more than 5% in the short term. The price level of 21,400 points now stands as the all-time high barrier for the current long-term bullish trend.
Strong Trend:
The bullish momentum that emerged after the significant drop in August 2024 has been key to the continuation of the long-term uptrend. However, the accelerated pace of buying in the short term could lead to bearish corrections in the coming sessions.
RSI:
The RSI indicator shows an impressively bullish slope, currently displaying readings of 83 —well above the overbought level of 70. The current event in the DAX price indicates that recent movements have created an imbalance in bullish and bearish forces, which could trigger early bearish corrections as the price continues to advance.
Key Levels:
21,400 points: Positioned as the new resistance zone at the latest all-time high. Consistent buying pressure is necessary to maintain the bullish bias currently observed in the index.
20,300 points: The nearest support level on the chart and a potential area for bearish corrections in the short term. If the price drops below this level, sustained bearish pressure on the DAX could return.
By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
