Nasdaq analysis: 09-Jan-2025Good morning, everyone! Today's Nasdaq analysis is designed to educate and empower. Use these insights to refine your price action trading strategy.
NAS100 trade ideas
NASDAQ100 vs US10YSomething is brewing up in this ratio chart between NASDAQ100 vs US10Y. We see in our ratio chart on a daily timeframe, that the 20 Day DMA is already below the 50 DMA and 100 DMA and on the way to be below 200 DMA. The last time it did this in April 2024 it was an bullish indicator. The assessment is that the 20 DMA first goes below 200 DMA in the next couple of weeks and then the RSI flips bullish and gives us a bullish flash indicator. RSI is currently at 26. Watch until it touches 20 and then we can go for long QQQ and short US10Y.
US100 LONG Template Analysis (Wishy-Washy Style)
Hey everyone! We’ve got some exciting market movements coming up. Here’s my overview:
1. Trend Momentum
Right now, we’re seeing a lot of momentum building up on the charts. The market seems to be trending in a bullish direction, but we’ll have to watch carefully for any shifts that could turn things around.
2. Key Support and Resistance Levels
• Support: The market has been bouncing off a crucial support zone. This level has previously acted as a springboard, so it’s likely to do so again unless we see a big move down.
• Resistance: There’s a well-defined resistance level that the price keeps testing. If we break above it with good volume, that’ll be super bullish, but if not, it might just hang out in this range for a while.
3. Moving Averages
The price is hovering around important moving averages. Generally, if we’re above them, things are bullish. If we’re below, then that’s a bearish sign. Right now, it’s right around these averages, so we need to wait for confirmation either way.
4. Volume Insights
Volume has picked up slightly, indicating that traders are stepping in. If volume surges at the same time the price breaks resistance, that’s a strong sign for a continued move upward.
5. Momentum Indicators
Popular indicators (like RSI and MACD) are showing signs of upward momentum. This might mean we’re still in a good spot to take advantage of price movements. But if they start to flatten out or turn down, be cautious of a potential reversal.
6. Overall Market Sentiment
Sentiment looks generally positive based on what we’re seeing online. If hype continues, expect prices to test higher levels soon. If something negative pops up (like surprising news or big sell orders), we could see a pullback.
Final Thoughts
We’re currently in a modestly bullish environment. The trend suggests buyers are in control, but it’s important to watch those key resistance zones. As soon as we break them with strong volume, expect a solid push to higher targets. If the market stalls, keep an eye on support zones for potential bounce entries.
Be Ready for entry Signal by dropping that follow button! More to come in 2025
Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence before making any trading decisions.
Nasdaq-100 Wave Analysis 6 January 2025
- Nasdaq-100 reversed up from support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 21855.00
Nasdaq-100 index recently reversed up from the support zone located at the intersection of the support level 20820.00 (low of the previous minor correction 2), support trendline of the daily up channel from September, 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from October and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star, which has the daily Hammer as its middle candle.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Nasdaq-100 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 21855.00 (which formed the daily Evening Star last month).
Daily and 4 hour reversal TriangleWe have a reversal pattern that has the potential to go bearish, we currently have a breakout, now we are waiting for a complete pullback to go short
US Tech 100 Index (Nasdaq 100) AnalysisHello Dear traders! keep Support And share Your Openion in comment section thanks for support
The US Tech 100 Index (Nasdaq 100) is showing potential for a bullish reversal after testing the key support zone near 20,200. Price action suggests a descending channel breakout with a strong likelihood of upward momentum towards resistance levels at 21,200 (TP1) and 21,750.
Technical Analysis:
The price is rebounding from a key support zone (20,200), marked by increased demand.
A potential breakout from the descending channel signals a trend reversal.
Resistance levels at 21,200 and 21,750, while the stop-loss is set below the key support at 20,200.
Fundamental Analysis:
Recent developments in the tech sector and potential market optimism into 2025 support the bullish bias. Watch for macroeconomic news or earnings reports that may influence sentiment.
Trade cautiously and confirm breakout signals before entering long positions.
NOTE: This Analysis For Educational purpose only trade safe thanks
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 7 Jan 2025I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - JOLTS Job Openings @ 15h00
News - None
Directional bias - BUY
Morning analysis:
M TF - Currently showing bullish sentiment, even after last month's doji candle close.
W TF - Bulls have managed so far to keep price above W neckline (on the W TF change the chart type to line chart and you will clearly see the "M" representing a DT market pattern).
D TF - D 0.618 SELL fib level was broken, as bulls pushed price up well above this level and managed to close the D candle above it. Even though bulls showed massive strength on Monday, they were unable to close the D candle above the D falling wedge pattern top blue line, i.e. they were unable to break the pattern upwards. At time of writing in the morning, temporary blue downtrend line is being respected. The blue downtrend line represents the D downtrend of the falling wedge (drawn on the D TF) and the green down trendline represents the 4H downtrend line (drawn on the 4H TF)
4H TF - Potential neckline of a DT noted and marked with orange. If the 7am candle breaks this neckline downwards, price will push down because we are at the top of a higher TF market pattern (D falling wedge) + we have a 4H DT. These are strong bearish signals, but they will only be valid should price action give a reversal signal by bears being able to break the orange neckline downwards. The D buy fib levels coincide with the 4H buy fib levels as both are drawn from swing low at B to swing high at A on each respective TF. This gives a form of TF confluence and makes these levels stronger.
1H - Bears have managed to break below the pivot point + 1H EMA. The 1H candle that closed at 6am, wicked down to the pink uptrend line and there was a strong reaction (long lower candle wick) alluding to the validity of this uptrend line.
Interest area's:
1. One buy area of confluence marked in green highlight - 4H EMA + D EMA (at that time) + D 0.382 buy fib level
As the day progressed:
Bulls managed to push up and break the pivot point upwards.
The candle that broke the pivot closed right on the 30min EMA. When Nas is very bullish or bearish, the 30min EMA will act / be respected as dynamic support and resistance.
Hence, I didn't want to enter my buy right at this level. I waited to see what price action would reveal.
Looking at the 15min TF you can see a small price retracement to the pivot point (red candle at C.), a doji right at the pivot point and a green candle pushing up and away from the pivot and closing higher .
It was at this point that I entered on a full position size, as I deemed my risk low because I had waited for the break and re-test:
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - 30 min DB with neckline broken upwards and re-tested
2. S&R - pivot point + 1H EMA acting as dynamic support
3. Trend - Buy is in the overall bullish direction of the recent market and temporary orange downtrend line broken upwards. Price also rejecting and moving away from temporary down trend blue line
4. Fib -
5. Candlesticks - bullish engulfing candle to the left of C. on the 1H TF + previous long wick candle rejecting the D sell 0.618 fib.
Mental SL placed at the thick pink line, so that the pivot point the 1H EMA and bulls rejecting the 4H neckline could possibly protect my buy.
Price action was a bit choppy, but I held my position open as price was making higher highs and higher lows on the 1H TF. Price gradually trending upwards along the 1H EMA.
Then news came out at 15h00 and price fell through the floor.
JOLTS Job Openings is not really a "high impact" news event for Nasdaq like the CPI and NFP is. So this was a surprisingly volatile move, indicating how sensitive traders are to economic news that would affect Fed decisions regarding rate cuts.
For me, up until the news, Nas was showing really good bullish price action. And then price just fell through the floor.
I closed my biggest position at 1'150 pips loss (as I usually don't like to take losses of more than 1'000 pips a day). My smaller position size, I hesitated to close and took a loss of 2'411 pips! WHAT THE HELL!!!
This was the fist time in a long time that I hesitated to close and it cost me badly, my emotions really got in the way here.
Then, as per my strategy, when price reached my interest area, I moved down to the 5min TF and entered a buy when price made a DB on the 5min TF at the lower hand icon..
But that was a false signal i.e. a small bounce off a strong reversal zone, but price ultimately tanked further and I closed at 1'126 pips loss.
What a freakin disaster....I basically took a 2'927 pips loss today (if I smooth the effect of position sizing).
Part of this loss is due to variance and part of it is due to my own fault.
There is no way I could have projected that Nas would fall through the floor on this news event and I don't regret my entry as I do believe my entry is correct for my bias and I did wait for the break and re-test.
My mistake was that I hesitated to close and took a bigger loss than I should have.
I also should not have entered again if I had already taken such a huge loss for the day. My strategy is to be out for the day if I make a 1000 pip loss.
So it was a bit of a disaster.
Nasdaq (and mostly myself) DESTROYED me today!
After this devastation to my trading account, I think I will sit the rest of the week out, as tomorrow market are closed in national mourning and then Friday is NFP which I don't trade anyway.
I need market to be as "normal" as possible because now I have my work cut out for me to slowly make up these losses. I will need to look for good quality entries and limit my risk.
Losses are normal in trading and these will be faced by every trader. But the biggest damage a trader can do to his progress is to have uncontrolled losses and let losses get bigger than they should.
It has been many months since I made this error, so I am making progress, but one bad day can cause serious damage.
Limiting losses is more important than making money. If you don't have this skill you will never be profitable over the long run - I was reminded of this valuable lesson today.
Hope you had a better day than me!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
NASDAQ Outlook IF the daily close above the weekly level 20491.21 or the Daily candle closes bullish , I'll be looking for buys 📈↗️opportunity to 21009.46
That's because of the imbalance that needs to be filled around that zone. Hence I'm going to watch how price reacts at that level for sell continuation.
The monthly candle is bearish. It might end bearish by the end of the Month.
Kindly boost this if you find it insightful ciao!
NAS100 Price ActionHello Traders,
Our Supply Demand Analyzer indicator has identified fresh zones that price has yet to test. These untouched zones present high-probability areas where price action is likely to respond—potentially moving from a strong demand zone to the next key supply zone.
Additionally, I’ve highlighted two types of breakout patterns:
1. Curve Breakout – An early signal indicating a potential breakout.
2. Channel Breakout – A more confirmed breakout pattern for added confidence.
You can leverage these supply and demand zones to plan long entries effectively.
Pro Tip: Always prioritize risk management before executing your setups.
Wishing you profitable trades and continued success.
Happy Trading!
NAS100 H4 | Bearish Reversal?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is currently at our sell entry at 21,388.20, an overlap resistance close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit will be at 20,866.82, a support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 21,771.47, which is a pullback resistance.
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NAS100NAS100 , Timeframe 4H: The chart appears to show a harmonic pattern, specifically the Bearish Gartley pattern, which is depicted with the points XABCD.
The points (X, A, B, C, D) form a specific structure that traders use to identify potential reversal zones.
The specified range just below point D represents a potential reversal zone where price might find resistance and begin moving downward.
Market Analysis And Market Outlook of the Week of 01/06/25Saturday: End of the Week Analysis
The Week ended Red;
with a range of 735 +- points.
Monday's Open continued to bring price down through Thursday; Friday being the only Green day.
___________
Overall Weekly bias:
- Price reached a major level of support at 20,800 +- and is currently moving up.
- With enough momentum the next area being targeted is 21,800 +- .
Daily Bias:
- Further confirms Weekly bias and support zone along with price targeting 21,800 +- .
- A higher low has been created which indicated a reversing market or the beginning of consolidation.
- Directional confirmation is needed by taking out has High or making a Lower Low.
1 Hour Bias:
- The 1 hour shows a trend change from short to longs.
- Taking out last lower high, a retracement is anticipated at this level to last support.
5 Minute Bias:
- Looks bullish with price currently retracing to last support.
____________
Considerations:
- Presidential inauguration, 01/20
- Earnings Reports, 01/20
- Red Folder News, 01/07 till *ongoing.
_____________
Market Anticipated Performance:
- The Markets will Range till after the Inauguration and after earnings report.
- My bias is a range of 1,300 +- points , from 20,800 +- to 22,100.
How to Trade for Week of 01/06:
- I am looking for price to retrace on the 1hour, 100 - 200 point +-
- Then Looking to enter long as price targets 21,800
- Zone to Zone and pattern trading till 01/20
US100 LONG US100 will move to 22K in the next few days. With bounce of Daily support, and price mainting bullish structure we will see a move to 22k in next few days, then from their a break or rejection will tell us future of 2025 market
NEW IDEA FOR NASDAQ100The Nasdaq 100 index, which includes 100 of the largest technology companies in the United States, is considered one of the most important indices in the global stock market. In this article, we will analyze the technical analysis of this index and consider a scenario in which the price could decline to the support of the channel floor at 19,420.0 if the key resistance at 21,418.4 holds.
The scenario ahead
In technical analysis, support and resistance levels play a decisive role in predicting future price movements. Here, we will consider a scenario in which the price could decline to the support of the channel floor at 19,420.0 if the resistance at 21,418.4 holds.
1. Holding the resistance at 21,418.4
If the price fails to break the resistance at 21,418.4 and remains below this level, it indicates a continuation of the downtrend. This scenario seems likely given the current selling pressure in the market.
2. Moving towards support at 19,420.0
If the resistance holds, the price is likely to decline towards the channel floor support at 19,420.0. This level is considered a strong support area that may trigger a price reversal or temporary consolidation.
US NAS100Preferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message..
Enjoy Trading... ;)
NASDAQ M45 Idea Potential for a bullish pullback on the NASDAQ M45 which could lead to a price movement towards the resistance level at 21.500
Nasdaq ShortsLooking for short this week from this level and the level of imbalance above current price. Correlates with stochastic RSI, channel, and resistance. Teach forecast is weaker for the coming quarters on earnings guidance. PE ratios are really expensive. I think we will see more of a correction before any bullish optimism in the market. I also believe the market will pullback and consolidate until Trump is inaugurated and starts to sign executive orders.
NAS100 - Nasdaq, no interest in Santa Rally!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zone, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. Nasdaq being in the supply zone will provide us with the conditions to sell it.
In the annual rebalancing of the Nasdaq Index, the shares of Tesla, Meta Platforms, and Broadcom saw a reduction in their weighting, while Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet gained more weight. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, this marks the second time in roughly a year that index regulators have adjusted the allocations for its largest members.
The rules governing the Nasdaq 100 are designed to prevent a small number of companies from exerting excessive influence on the index. These rules have become increasingly relevant in recent years due to the extraordinary growth in market value of major companies and advancements in artificial intelligence. Although the Nasdaq 100 is weighted by market capitalization, certain limits are enforced if a few companies grow disproportionately large.
This recent rebalancing may have been prompted by a rule that allows regulators to reduce the weighting of the top five companies to below 40%, with other adjustments made accordingly. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, remarked, “At times, the Nasdaq 100 has to take such measures because it becomes a victim of its own success; the largest stocks in the index have grown significantly faster than others.”
This year, the shares of major technology companies have risen sharply due to advancements in artificial intelligence. Broadcom, a key chip supplier for Apple and other tech giants, reached a market value of $1 trillion. Tesla also surged by around 75% following the U.S. presidential election.
In the Nasdaq 100, Apple’s weighting increased from 9.2% to 9.8%, while Nvidia rose from 7.9% to 8.4%. Microsoft and Amazon also gained weight, and Alphabet saw a slight increase. However, Broadcom’s weighting fell from 6.3% to 4.4%, Tesla’s dropped from 4.9% to 3.9%, and Meta’s decreased from 4.9% to 3.3%.
Currently, over 200 exchange-traded products, with combined assets totaling approximately $540 billion, track the Nasdaq 100 or its variations globally. Athanasios Psarofagis of Bloomberg Intelligence noted, “This highlights the increasing influence of index providers on market dynamics.”
Last year, thanks to the resilience of the economy, strong earnings reports, a 100-basis-point rate cut by the Fed, and the leadership of the Mag7, the S&P 500 recorded 57 new all-time highs (ATHs).
On Friday, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, speaking at the Maryland Bankers Association, outlined the conditions needed for rate cuts and discussed the broader impacts of the new tariff plan proposed by President-elect Donald Trump. Barkin downplayed the immediate and direct effects of the tariff program. Markets do not anticipate any rate changes in the upcoming Fed meeting.
The private and non-farm payrolls report (ADP) set to be released on Wednesday, along with Thursday’s weekly jobless claims data, could offer a clearer picture of the U.S. labor market ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Additionally, the ISM Services PMI for December, scheduled for release on Monday, could provide further insights into the overall performance of the U.S. economy, as the services sector accounts for over 80% of GDP.
The minutes of the December Fed meeting will also be published on Wednesday, but they are unlikely to have a significant impact on markets as updated economic forecasts have already been released.
The November Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a sharp increase in job creation, with 227,000 new jobs added to the U.S. economy. This contrasted with just 12,000 jobs added in October, marking the weakest job growth since December 2020. If the December report also indicates that October’s weakness was temporary, some investors might conclude that even two rate cuts in 2025 would be excessive. This could contribute to the continued strength of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies.
The key question is whether the stock market, given expectations of fewer rate cuts, will continue its downward trend or recover with signs of robust economic performance.
My analysis for upcoming trading days... Let me know yours :)My analysis is based on the latest pull back that i think will not continue. I feel like that this pullback is caused be overheated technological sector because of nvdia hype and overall market hype.
Fundamentals are on my side of view. interest rates are lower, cpi did not change and uneplyoment rose.
I wil be looking to take trades from that 4 hour fvg or on the way to that fvg based on oportunities markets will gve me.
Lastly i want to apologize for my inactivity. I've been dealing with a lot of family issues and I'm also in my senior year of high school, so it's been a lot. I'm here now and I'll post as much as I can.
NASDAQ - 22/12/24 - LONGPrice has for the past weeks been on an uptrend, showing clear higher highs and higher lows. Looking for price to continue higher on the basis that last week's low was a new higher low. Additional confluences include a daily order block and price showing bullish momentum immediately after tapping.
To summarize, the idea is to just follow the trend. 1:3 RR
IPDA price action last weeks high to be raided and then a potential sell-off during new-york open, if not the market may just keep going
when it does short from the PWH, the HTF bias is still bullish , a bearish imbalance inversion after NY open is key to find the long entry .... wait for time ( @ 10:00 NY/ 17:00 RSA)
