Prepare to SHORT UK at 8392-89 rangesTeam, I am prepare to set up a short position for UK at 8392-89 reanges with stop loss at 8412, target at 8366 and 8341. I believe once it hit those price, it is likely to retreat.
UK100 trade ideas
We were waiting for the UK to reach our short postionEarlier today, we were waiting for the UK to reach the 5th of August at 8405. However we wait for the pull back toward 8393 that where we enter our short position. We set our stop loss at 8410. We are looking at the target ranges 8362-45. We also expect September, the UK will likely heading into bearish trend toward 8250 ranges.
FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) may fall to 8248.00 - 8284.00Pivot
8365.00
Our preference
Short positions below 8365.00 with targets at 8284.00 & 8248.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Above 8365.00 look for further upside with 8401.00 & 8433.00 as targets.
Comment
As long as 8365.00 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
Supports and resistances
8433.00
8401.00
8365.00
8325.50 Last
8284.00
8248.00
8170.00
Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.
UK100 Bearish 4H TF(Divergence, BOS, Resistance)UK100 showing bearish momentum supported by 4H divergence with recent Break of Structure (BOS) and strong resistance. Entry is placed as Sell Stop below the previous LL. TP is at 1:1 and SL at previous HH.
Note: You can close half of the position at 8098 level (if you are not comfortable with price going more down).
What do you think, will it work?
UK100 Maintains Bullish Momentum as Key Support Holds FirmHello Everyone,
The UK100 has maintained a steady bullish trend, recently reaching our target of 8399.4. Looking ahead, the bullish momentum is expected to continue. The 8225.064 level, previously a strong resistance, has now turned into solid support, further reinforcing the positive outlook. While some fluctuations are possible, they are currently less likely to significantly disrupt this upward trajectory.
TradeWithTheTrend3344
FTSE100 Recovers Sideways RangeU.S. and European stock markets have staged a significant rebound on Wednesday, with gains between 3% and 6% from the lows of “panic Monday” in early August. The Nasdaq 100 has led the gains on Wall Street, up 6.5%, while the S&P 500 is up 5.1%. However, both indexes continue to show losses so far this month. Slowing inflation has bolstered bets for a September rate cut, while Flutter and Playtech stocks have stood out with strong gains following positive news. In Europe, the EuroStoxx 50 has advanced 3.4%, but is still down 3% in August. The European market faces key technical resistance for its recovery.
In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 (Ticker AT: UK100) closed higher yesterday for the fourth consecutive session, boosted by softer inflation data in July that has raised expectations that the Bank of England could cut interest rates at its next meeting. Both the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 are up 0.6% and 1%, respectively, reaching two-week highs. Interest rate sensitive sectors, such as housebuilders, have led the gains with a 3.4% rise. However, industrial metals miners have fallen nearly 1% due to an unexpected decline in Chinese lending. British trade balance, GDP, industrial and manufacturing production, and investor sentiment data are released today. If the results exceed expectations, they could boost the index further, signaling a possible tentative recovery in the UK economy.
Looking at the chart, the index is currently at 8,282 points, following the upward movement initiated on August 7 after the candle of indecision on August 6, which has marked the continuation trend to the average of the annual uptrend. At the moment the price resistance coincides with a drop in the RSI towards oversold, we will see if the price is able to pierce the 8,411.15 points. Currently the Control Point (POC) is located in the area of 8,200 points. If the price pierces again, it is very likely that the market will try to encourage a new bull market as is happening with the U.S. market at the moment.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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Overcoming Self-doubt and Pushing ForwardHow did I overcome self-doubt & push forward towards my goals? I wanted to share my personal journey on how to pick yourself up when self-belief falters:
1️⃣ Acknowledge the feeling: It's okay to have moments of self-doubt. I've learned that recognizing and accepting these emotions is the first step towards overcoming them.
2️⃣ Reflect on past successes: Reminding myself of the goals I've already achieved and the obstacles I've overcome boosts my confidence. I've done it before, and I can do it again!
3️⃣ Break goals into smaller steps: When overwhelmed, I break my big goals into smaller, manageable tasks. Progress on these smaller milestones fuels motivation and keeps me moving forward.
4️⃣ Seek support & encouragement: I reached out to friends, mentors, and my trading community for support and encouragement back in the day. Surrounding myself with positive influences helps me regain perspective and self-belief.
5️⃣ Embrace the learning curve: Instead of dwelling on setbacks, I view them as valuable learning experiences. Every challenge is an opportunity to grow and refine my approach.
6️⃣ Visualization & positive affirmations: I visualize myself achieving my goals with clarity and conviction. Positive affirmations reinforce my belief in my capabilities and attract success. PS: I also dismissed this voodoo at the beginning. Trust me, don't.
Remember, it's normal to have moments of doubt, but they don't define you. Embrace the journey, draw strength from within, and persist with determination. Trust in yourself and your abilities to reach those goals!
UK100 H1 | Falling to pullback supportUK100 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 8,187.81 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 8,118.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support.
Take profit is at 8,301.72 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis: FTSE should Continue HigherShort Term Elliott Wave in FTSE suggests that the index has completed a bearish sequence from 5.15.2024 high. The decline made a zig zag Elliott Wave structure. Down from 5.15.2024 high, wave A ended at 8106.79 low. Rally in wave B ended at 8405.24 high with internal subdivision as a expanded flat structure. Up from wave A, wave ((a)) ended at 8279.75 and wave ((b)) ended at 8056.01. Wave ((c)) higher ended at 8405.24 which completed wave B in higher degree.
Then, FTSE turned lower in wave C with internal subdivision as an impulse structure. Down from wave B, wave ((i)) ended at 8158.03 low and wave ((ii)) ended slighly up at 8174.71 high. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 7972.35 and wave ((iv)) ended at 8024.83 high. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 7915.94 low which completed wave C and (4) in higher degree. The current rally is in progress expecting to continue higher as wave (5). Near term, we are calling an impulse structure as wave ((i)) from wave (4) low. This wave ((i)) should be completed very soon and we are expecting a retracement in 3, 7 or 11 swings as wave ((ii)) before resuming the rally. The view is valid as price action remains above 7915.94 low.
overlap resistance ahead?UK100 is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 8,257.05
1st Support: 8,122.00
1st Resistance: 8,367.16
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FTSE 3rd straight green day after the bottom.FTSE 100 (UK100) is having perhaps the most convincing bottom formation out of all major global indices as despite the selling pressure evident on each day, it is (so far) today on the 3rd straight green 1D candle since Monday's Low.
That Low came just a few points from touching not only the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but also the Higher Lows Zone (started on October 27 2023). At the same time, the Bearish Megaphone since its All Time High (ATH), displays striking similarities with the April - August 2023 pattern.
In fact, this week's Low seems to be similar with the August 18 2023 Low. That initiated a rebound that almost touched the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, before another correction. Even the 1D RSI patterns are similar among the two fractals.
As a result, we turn bullish again on FTSE here, targeting 8300 (just below the 0.786 Fib).
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FTSE 100 just broke below May's lows - Big crash on the way?M Formation has been fomring on the FTSE 100 since May 2024.
We then had a major breakout just yesterday with the price going below 20MA.
The downtrend line (red) is in check and we can expect further downside to come.
Target will be around 7,591
England's Economic Crossroads and Banking ResilienceEngland’s economy is facing a complex array of challenges, driven by domestic social unrest, geopolitical tensions, and evolving labor dynamics. Recent riots, sparked by both marginalized Muslim communities and extreme right-wing groups, highlight deep-seated socio-economic issues. These tensions have been exacerbated by international events, such as the October 7, 2023, incident in Israel, which reverberated through England's Muslim community.
In addition to these social and geopolitical pressures, the economic indicators present a mixed picture. Inflation, unemployment, and a housing crisis have strained the economy, while regional conflicts, such as the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars, pose further risks to energy prices, trade, and security.
Amidst this backdrop, the Bank of England’s recent declaration that top UK lenders can be dismantled without taxpayer bailouts is a significant milestone. This statement reflects the progress made since the 2008 financial crisis in enhancing the resilience of the UK banking system through stricter capital requirements and resolvability assessments. However, emerging risks such as climate change, cyberattacks, and global financial interconnectedness require continuous vigilance and robust regulation.
Inspiration and Challenge:
As traders and investors, understanding the interplay between social dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and financial stability is crucial. England’s current economic state challenges us to think beyond traditional metrics and consider the broader implications of regional conflicts and social unrest on financial markets. The resilience of the UK banking system offers a glimmer of stability, but it also calls for ongoing scrutiny of emerging risks. Engage with this analysis to deepen your strategic insights and navigate the complexities of the global economic landscape.
FTSE/UK100 BUY tradeHello
It has been a VERY choppy week so far. Looking at this index for today and most probably into next week.
* B wave in play to form regular or expanding flat
* A wave shows a complete 5 wave CORRECTIVE structure
* VERY strong MACD divergence in 15 minute to 4 HR time frames.
* Liquidity (FVG) at 8110 price level taken.
* unmitigated FVGs at 8291, 8336, 8425
My apologies for the messy chart, I explain better on the chart than in writing in the "publish idea" section.
FTSE 100 vs United Kingdom Interest RateThe UK Central Bank Just Cut Interest Rates: What Can We Expect?
Sometimes folks see this as a positive thing, but it all depends on the circumstances under which it is being done.
Monthly Chart Analysis: FTSE 100 Index vs. United Kingdom Interest Rate
If we look at the FTSE 100 Index, it's clear that the UK economy was in a strong uptrend between 1988 and 2001, which made many investors rich. The market topped around February 1999 and broke down in March 2001, signaling the end of the uptrend.
Since then, the UK’s economy has been moving sideways in what looks like a rising wedge. Sure, the price has been making new all-time highs, but the movement is very different from the uptrend between 1988 and 2001. During that uptrend, interest rate cuts were positive, and rising rates didn't do much other than cause minor pauses to the upward movement. In a strong uptrend like the one seen between 1988 and 2001, any investor could make money.
However, during the “sideways” movement within the rising wedge, interest rate cuts had a much different effect on the economy, often catastrophic. In the charts above, I have highlighted four points in time. These points represent two things:
The price was at the resistance area of the rising wedge.
Interest rates were cut.
Let’s review these points:
February 2001 - The price breaks down from the market top, signaling the uptrend was over and the market might move in the opposite direction. This point later becomes part of the resistance area of the rising wedge. The central bank at this time also cut rates, sending them below 5% for the first time. A market crash close to -45% occurred at this point.
November 2007 - The price reaches the previous level of February 2001, creating a resistance level, and interest rates pull back above 5%. The central bank proceeds to cut rates again. A market crash close to -45% once again occurs at this point.
February 2020 - After a historic interest rate plunge from over 5% to 0.5%, both the economy and interest rates stabilize over the next 10 years (2009-2018). In 2019, there is a spike in interest rates which brings us to February 2020. The price is near resistance levels, and the central bank decides to cut interest rates. A market crash close to -37% once again occurs at this point (Remember when they said the market crashed because of the Covid pandemic?).
August 2024 - Today, the price finds itself back at the resistance area of the rising wedge, and the central bank just announced it will start cutting interest rates. What do you think will happen next?
Every time the price found itself at the resistance area of this rising wedge of the FTSE 100 Index and interest rates were cut, the market plunged on average by -42%. Don’t let the “all-time high” prices fool you; history likes to repeat itself.
Current Price: 8,283.26
Forecast Price: 5,674.75 (-32.47%)
Breakout Alert: FTSE 100 The FTSE 100 has broken out of a wedge pattern that had been forming for over 10 weeks. Let’s explore the trading opportunities this breakout has created.
Breakout Follows Fakeout
Since mid-May, the FTSE 100 had been consolidating within a tightening trading range or wedge. After weeks of small daily ranges and choppy sideways price action due to low summer volumes, last week brought a significant change.
On Thursday, the FTSE threatened to break lower following weak earnings reports from the US tech sector, which dampened market sentiment. However, buyers quickly stepped in, driving the market back into the wedge and forming a bullish 'fakeout' candle backed by a significant increase in volume.
Friday's price action saw the market drive higher, decisively breaking and closing above the wedge pattern. This breakout sets the stage for a continuation of the FTSE’s long-term uptrend, with momentum traders targeting a retest of the May highs.
FTSE 100 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Lower Timeframe Analysis
One strategy that momentum-based index traders might use to capitalise on the FTSE’s breakout is to buy pullbacks on a lower timeframe, such as the hourly candle chart.
To time their pullback trades, traders can utilise trendlines, moving averages, horizontal support levels, and Fibonacci retracements.
On this timeframe, we can already see that the FTSE has broken below the initial trendline that formed following the breakout. This suggests that the market could undergo a deeper pullback before the trend resumes.
FTSE 100 Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
UK Sector Snapshot
A seven-day sector snapshot reveals that the FTSE’s current rally is being driven by the consumer sectors, with Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary leading the way. Strong earnings reports from companies like Compass Group (CPG) and British American Tobacco (BATS) have propelled these sectors higher. Meanwhile, the Real Estate, Energy, and Tech sectors have been lagging.
Momentum traders looking to play the FTSE’s breakout through individual stocks might find opportunities within the Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary sectors.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
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