US2000 trade ideas
RUT End Of Week Evaluation*** Comments prior to evaluation summary ***
RUT generated new low in the consolidation range this week.
An enveloping bar formed in the market on Friday (daily chart). This can have an impact coming into the new week. The envelope indicated a desire to move toward 1405 - 1397 which matches the week charts skipping target low of 1389 So I would accept this is a double confirmation of potential low for next week. As always this is dependent on if the strength and attitude continue.
There is also a minor measurable event which has a suggestion of 1344 for the coming week.
RSI has weakened by 6.3% on the 14 day and 16.1% on the 5 day. ** If you use RSI to help measure 'Strength' as it was designed for.
Trend Analysis:
The current trend is defined by the last price and it's relationship to specific moving averages.
Check the MA strategy for more specific suggestions.
Weekly: The relationship to the primary trend MA is bullish. The price in relationship to the other averages suggest long positions
Price Action:
Weekly: The average price range currently is 129.76 points/ticks/pips. Prices are currently .28x the normal trading range. Prices are trading within the mean range for activity. This generally indicates a consolidation of strength/indecision in the market regarding direction.
Prices are currently caught in consolidation between 1343.60 and 1537.62.
While in consolidation the trade range may decrease to 79.722 points/ticks/pips.
Standard Deviation
Weekly: Standard deviation suggests a range from 1225.18 to 1612.09 for the following week.
Calculated Price Strength:
The strength of the trend in conjunction with specific averages
Weekly: Trend strength suggests a trade range of 1338.17 to 1498.55 for the following week.
Price Projection:
The price action has generated a projection signal for the underlying.
Weekly: Price currently displays (if strength and attitude continue) a desire to move toward 1389
If strength and attitude continue, it could take between 1 to 2 trade periods (weeks) to reach the projection.
Indicators Summary.
A collection of technical indicators whose directional attitude has been summarized.
Weekly: Out of the cumulative indicators monitored, 60.00% are bullish, 0.00% are bearish, 40.00% are neutral
The CCI indicator trading strategy suggest the following:
Weekly: Neutral price action - shorts closed.
Confirmation Signal
6 indicators combined to confirm entry/exit.
Weekly Bullish - Open directional trades
That down candle a week ago is still "bringing back memories"?Equities tried rallying above it but have so far failed. Note how Russell futs trade stuck below the highs of that big candle last Thursday. Similar is to be seen in S&P. Watch the lower part of the channel for support in case we turn lower.
Upside, watch recent highs as resistance.
RUT corrective pullback [WAVE C]On the minor time frame, wave (C) corrective is still in progress with the resistance level at about 1540 targeting the 1300 downside target. We have seen quite a sharp decline in higher degree into wave i. 1542 resistance must hold to keep this corrective pattern alive.
RUT End Of Week Evaluation*** Comments prior to evaluation summary ***
The last week has generated an negative enveloping bar. Movement below 1349 the week confirms the direction indicated. Movement between the high and low of the week will allow for an adjustment of the general attitude/direction.
Trend Analysis:
The current trend is defined by the last price and it's relationship to specific moving averages.
Check the MA strategy for more specific suggestions.
Weekly: The relationship to the primary trend MA is bullish. The price in relationship to the other averages suggest long positions
Price Action:
Weekly: The average price range currently is 125.582 points/ticks/pips. Prices are currently .07x the normal trading range. Prices are trading within the mean range for activity. This generally indicates a consolidation of strength/indecision in the market regarding direction.
Prices are currently caught in consolidation between 1349.391 and 1537.619.
While in consolidation the trade range may decrease to 77.25 points/ticks/pips.
Standard Deviation
Weekly: Standard deviation suggests a range from 1183.429 to 1591.94 for the following week.
Calculated Price Strength:
The strength of the trend in conjunction with specific averages
Weekly: Trend strength suggests a trade range of 1310.08 to 1465.29 for the following week.
Price Projection:
The price action has generated a projection signal for the underlying.
Weekly: Price currently displays (if strength and attitude continue) a desire to move toward 1271.34
If strength and attitude continue, it could take between 1 to 2 trade periods (weeks) to reach the projection.
Indicators Summary.
A collection of technical indicators whose directional attitude has been summarized.
Weekly: Out of the cumulative indicators monitored, 60.00% are bullish, 0.00% are bearish, 40.00% are neutral
The CCI indicator trading strategy suggest the following:
Weekly: Neutral price action - shorts closed.
Confirmation Signal
6 indicators combined to confirm entry/exit.
Weekly Bullish - Open directional trades
RUT evaluation of 11 June 2020*** Comments prior to evaluation summary ***
On Monday June 8th, the index was 4.08 trade periods ahead of average trading. Generally when this occurs instruments either stall/reverse.
After yesterdays reversal, the index is 1.165 trade periods (to the negative trend) of average trading.
Trend Analysis:
The current trend is defined by the last price and it's relationship to specific moving averages.
Check the MA strategy for more specific suggestions.
Daily: The relationship to the primary trend MA is bearish. The price in relationship to the other averages suggest short positions
Price Action:
Daily: The average price range currently is 40.69 points/ticks/pips. Prices are currently 1.16x the normal trading range. Prices are trading within the mean range for activity. This generally indicates a healthy trading range.
Prices currently are trending and not in consolidation.
Standard Deviation
Daily: Standard deviation suggests a range from 1270.255 to 1442.192 for the follow on trading day.
Calculated Price Strength:
The strength of the trend in conjunction with specific averages
Daily: Trend strength suggests a trade range of 1331.08 to 1381.37 for the following day.
Price Projection:
The price action has generated a projection signal for the underlying.
Daily: Price currently displays (if strength and attitude continue) a desire to move toward 1270.12
If strength and attitude continue, it could take between 3 to 6 trade periods (days) to reach the projection.
Indicators Summary.
A collection of technical indicators whose directional attitude has been summarized.
Daily: Out of the cumulative indicators monitored, 10.00% are bullish, 50.00% are bearish, 40.00% are neutral
The CCI indicator trading strategy suggest the following:
Daily: Neutral price action - shorts closed.
Confirmation Signal
6 indicators combined to confirm entry/exit.
Daily Bearish - Open directional trades
Moving Average Strategy
Strategy composed of 3 moving averages and prices interaction with the averages.
Daily: Bearish market attitude, enter into Short trades only - do not bet against the trend
Suggested stops base on daily charts:
SAR value at: 1537.62
Close - (ATR * 1.5) at: 1356.22461.035
SMA 13 at: 1441.791
RUT remaining bearish against this resistance level
RUT us forming an extended wave v that points the wave (v) upside target of 161.8% retracement at 1430 level. Wave v must hold at 1542 to the the Corrective Flat Pattern valid. Expect this terminal rally into our final resistance zone before the decline starts.
Notice that the RUT is weaker than the S&P. Will the coming pullback continue this trend and see bear markets in both as US debt is shunned by global investors as a store of value?
Speculative Low Priced Stocks Begin To Sharply Roll OverWell today it finally happened .
The Russell 2000 has had a second consecutive day of heaving selling,
which has in turn has broke down the pattern
causing new and significant technical damage.
RUT is home of all those small stocks, 2000 in number ,
including penny stock where rife speculation has taken hold in the last 6 weeks
and the index that has lead the rally, seems suddenly to be almost down for the count,
The Russell 2000 right now is the absolutely weakest index group
so it;s poor relative strength makes it notable.
So where does this now leave the penny stocks ?
The craze, the mania it's in the penny stocks.
I know first hand that trading penny stocks is such a guilty pleasure.
Sometimes it feels like you;re robbing the bank, the money comes to you very easily,
and the trading is really not that difficult at all., compared to the other major indices .
I will simply end by saying, trading these kinds of penny stocks in the Russell 2000
, it becomes something you want do and do over and over again And It becomes obsessive
Lets hope that this part of the market, with its speculation,can recover soon and prices turn around, and start to rise once again.
I want to go back for a second plate. of the Russell 2000 soon" Im hungry,, and food there is very satisfying.
You will not be disappointed if you give it a try yourself.
Have some fun= Buy the Russell 2000 Index, after the correction. is over.
I'm sure that will be glad you did.
THE_UNWIND'
6/10/20
NEW YORK..
RUT 2nd Half Scale in RUT us forming an extended wave v that points the wave (v) upside target of 161.8% retracement at 1430 level. Wave v must hold at 1542 to the the Corrective Flat Pattern valid. Expect this terminal rally into our final resistance zone before the decline starts.
We are looking to scale in with 2nd half of bear put butterfly. For now, the 1481 should offer massive resistance that setups for a 10% decline. New Butterfly Spread 1330/1150/1030 Put Debit Butterfly expiring Aug 31st 2020.
Law of ReversibilityThis theory is based on the Law of Suggestions that you can find in many psychology books or self development on the human mind.
Consider this article for a moment.
If you have only 5 seconds to glance through, I bet the keywords that stays in your mind will be
severe and self off
And the Media are well aware of this and when they put up the article, they too spent time on choosing the right headlines that sells the sizzles, that hit fast to the mind of humans. Don't forget there is fierce competition out there and many analysts, traders, etc will not have the world of time to digest each and every piece of article.
They rely on headlines or at the most the first paragraph so that they can act fast to buy or sell.
Let me break it down for you what happens when this piece of information enters your mind :
1. think about it
2 feel about it
3. decide what to do about it
4 act on it
So, if you are long on your positions, say SPX500 as an example, this could be what you might do :
1. hmmm, could the author be right ? What if a sell-off comes ? worse, a severe one ? wouldn't that wipe out my profits ? should I sell now?
2. I feel uneasy , I can't sleep at night, I feel I need to do something about my positions
3. I decide to trim down my position size next week, maybe take some early profits (after all - a bird in hand is worth two at the bush)
4. The pressure on 2 builds up and it spurs you to act on it - ie, you sold some of your positions and immediately, you felt a sense of relief.
What happens after a week?
The market continues to charge higher, in fact it rallys up another 12$% ,causing you to lose a potential profit of another 1000 dollars.
You begin to curse and swear at yourself , then you reminded yourself of the article you read and re-read again and the guilt, shame, pain , all combined into one makes you feel pretty lousy. You felt you had been short-changed and promised never to repeat the same mistake again.
Until the next article is published ............
In applying the Law of Reversibility, you become fully aware of what you are reading. You verify if the information is correct by checking on your chart. Is it a normal correction in a bullish move that the author was claiming to be a severe sell-off ? Did you have your SL in place ? How far was the current price from your target ?
What is your time horizon in buying this stock or index ? Short term, medium term or long term?
Do you. have a reliable trading strategy to fall back on ? Example using trend line , support and resistance or moving averages ,etc.
Did you back track to 10-20 years on your charts and see if such negative comments by the press comes true or the reverse ? Is there a patten you can map out ?
If you are buying into a company, what is the fundamental like ? Is it in the growth industry or sun-set industry ?
By asking yourself objective questions like this and doing your due diligence, you become your own Sherlock Holmes, only believing the evidence you gathered on your own. Don't be lazy and listen to these experts and act on it blindly, be it fear or anything else (these guys are from top investment banks, surely they know more than me). The last sentence is the most misleading when comes to trading and investment. Just because someone has a CFA does not make him a better trader.
If you have done your homework and you act on it and the price still shoot up after you sell, at least you learn something from it. Go back to the drawing board and re-evaluate what is the missing puzzle. This step by step real life learning is precious, valuable to the point that nobody can take away from you.
There is no failure, only feedback so use these feedbacks to improve on your trades. Don't trade mechanically, be a smart trader, be mindful of your incoming and outgoing funds. And that could also be a danger as it is virtual, you don't see it , touch it so transferring funds in and out can become a routine for some and as they top up more and more, they lose touch of the pain of losing the money , they just follow the path that leads them lower.
Recognise that only you and you alone can make the change. You can reverse the loss and turn it into a profit. Have the courage to face it and build a story so compelling that your children children would never forget.............
