Minds

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States forum

Dec 14, 2023

National Association of Realtors predicts 4.71 million existing-home sales in 2024, up 13.5% from 4.1 million anticipated in 2023.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun joined other leading housing analysts Tuesday at NAR’s virtual Real Estate Forecast Summit to discuss sales projections heading into 2024.

NAR predicts the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to average 6.3% in 2024. This likely will improve housing affordability and entice more home buyers to return to the market

NAR is projecting that existing-home sales will rise 13.5% and new-home sales—which are up about 5% this year, defying market trends—could increase another 19% by the end of next year.

Overall inflation has been easing, although “shelter inflation” continues to rise. The latest reading of the Consumer Price Index showed that inflation decreased to 3.1% in November.

The typical homeowner has accumulated more than $100,000 in housing wealth over the past three years, NAR’s data shows. The typical homeowner has $396,200 in wealth versus $10,400 for renters, according to Federal Reserve data.

May 18, 2023

Pretty worrying chart right here. The monthly Stochastic RSI for mortgage backed-securities has fully oscillated back to overbought while being under the EMA ribbon. Looks like support has flipped to resistance. The coming quarters could get pretty interesting...

Apr 26, 2023

Tim's Guess for Mortgage Rates for 2023

I thought I would publish this "guess" for the sheer entertainment value to show the dramatic increase in mortgage rates and to put in perspective the damage that has likely been done to the purchasing power of home buyers.

The Fed has engineered an attempt to shut down an excessive spending to cool the economy down and we are all waiting for reverberations to indicate that they have been successful.

M2 money supply, which I will add on a follow-on chart, is declining at a sharp rate which is indicative of recession ahead. I believe this M2 money supply contraction is a sign that mortgage rates will fall and here is a "guess" just to put a guess out there.

There is 1 datapoint per week for this series and you can see the box that represents a week as shown with a gray box around the blue line.

I added the 2008 contraction for reference.

Let's see what happens.

I hope this is wrong because it will mean that the economy is falling sharply, but also it would imply that the Fed believes it will have conquered inflation and then.