20.11.24 Morning ForecastPairs on Watch -
FX:GBPUSD
FX:AUDUSD
OANDA:JP225USD
A short overview of the instruments I am looking at for today, multi-timeframe analysis down to what I will be looking at for an entry. Enjoy!
NIKKEI225 trade ideas
Nikkei 225: Wave 3 crash is comingI explain in this video my choice on breaking down the waves into sub-waves and suggests the alternative which will always give us a wave 3 down. For 2nd alternate count, where our main and 1st secondary count is wrong, I suggest that the current correction might drags out before wave 3 resumes.
How Yen Trends & Wage Growth Signal Opportunities in Nikkei 225 By Danish Lim Zhi Lin, Investment Analyst
Current Performance of Nikkei 225 Index:
Since our last trade idea ( ), the Nikkei 225 Index has rebounded from around 36,215 on 9 September to 39,480 at the close on 6 November, a gain of about 9%.
Nevertheless, Japanese equities are yet to hit their July record highs, as a stronger Yen, political uncertainty, and potentially higher interest rates weighed on sentiment.
Green Shoots in Japan:
In our previous posting, we highlighted how the fundamentals behind Japanese equities remained unchanged despite a bout of volatility in August and September. We viewed the August drawdown in equities as temporary and believed it was tied to headwinds in the global economy rather than Japan itself. Rising real wages provided further optimism that a virtuous wage-price spiral could be achieved, potentially boosting consumer spending and sentiment.
The latest data on wages supported our view, as Japanese workers’ base salaries saw the largest increase in over 3 decades, backing the BOJ’s view that the economy remains on the recovery track. Base pay advanced 2.6% YoY in September, up from 2.4% in August, the strongest increase in over 31 years. Scheduled cash earnings, a more stable measure of wage trends that excludes overtime pay, rose by 2.9% YoY, up from 2.8%. However, real wages fell for a 2nd straight month.
Nevertheless, wage hike momentum remains steady despite pockets of weakness, this could fuel spending and lead to demand-led inflation. At the same time, corporate reforms and growing shareholder activism have also led to higher dividends, more share buybacks and stronger balance sheets.
While the BOJ kept rates unchanged at its last policy meeting, there is still a possibility of another rate hike further down the road.
US Elections and USD/JPY:
On 6 November, the Nikkei 225 closed up by 2.61%, as the USD/JPY currency pair rose to 153.93 at 15:39 SGT, potentially on the verge of testing the key psychological level of 155. The negative correlation between the Nikkei 225 and USD/JPY has been well documented, with a weaker Yen benefitting many export-heavy Japanese firms such as Toyota and Fast Retailing, parent of Uniqlo.
The rise in the Dollar was driven by an increase in yields across the Treasuries curve following the US election results; as traders positioned for Trump’s tariffs to drive up inflation and tax cuts to boost the budget deficit.
In our view, we believe that the USD/JPY currency pair has more room to extend its rally for the remainder of the year. This could potentially provide further support for the Nikkei 225.
Back in 2016, Trump’s election victory saw the Dollar Index surge over 3% in October, similar to what happened last month. However, the Dollar Index rallied another 3% in November 2016. We could see a similar picture playing out this year. We also expect the Fed to slow its pace of rate cuts, given the inflation-inducing policies Trump is expected to push.
BOJ: To Hike or Not to Hike?
Following Donald Trump’s election win, Japan’s chief currency official Atsushi Mimura said that “we’re seeing one-sided, sudden moves in the currency market” as the yen weakened towards the 155 level against the Dollar. Mimura added that the central bank will monitor markets with a “very high sense of urgency”.
A weak Yen has the potential to boost imported inflation, putting pressure on the BOJ to raise rates. We expect to see verbal intervention from officials if Dollar strength remains in place. A breach of the 160 level could prompt actual currency intervention from the government.
Japan’s Politics
The situation is further complicated by the recent loss of a parliamentary majority by Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in last month’s lower house election. This outcome could force the LDP to form a new coalition, potentially leading to power-sharing agreements that introduce political uncertainty.
Such developments could delay the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) anticipated rate hike, with opposition parties—some of which may become pivotal in coalition negotiations—advocating for a more dovish monetary stance.
Notably, Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the opposition Democratic Party for the People (DPP), has called for a six-month delay before any further rate hikes.
As a result, the prospects of delayed BOJ tightening, combined with rising US yields driven by the policies of a potential Trump administration, have led to a widening of the interest rate differential between Japan and the US, now at its most pronounced since July. This dynamic has exerted upward pressure on the USD/JPY exchange rate.
The US-Japan 10-year yield spread has increased from its September low, which aligns with the recent rise in the USD/JPY currency pair. ()
Nikkei 225 Outlook & Trading Opportunity:
In our view, we see Trump's election victory as tactically positive for Japanese equities and the Nikkei 225.
The underlying economic fundamentals remain robust, with real wages on a positive growth trajectory. The resurgence of healthy inflation coupled with rising wages could trigger a virtuous cycle of price and wage increases, which would provide a broad economic boost and, by extension, benefit the equity market.
Trump's election victory could also alter the flow of capital into 2 of Asia's largest equity markets. Specifically, as investors adopt a more cautious stance towards potential tariffs on China, we anticipate that funds will increasingly flow into Japan.
We expect the Nikkei 225 to benefit from Trump’s inflationary policies - which could keep US interest rates high, which could in turn strengthen the Dollar and weaken the Yen to the advantage of the Japanese equity market. However, upside could be limited given the risk of a currency intervention by Japanese authorities to stem Yen weakness.
If China's expected stimulus measures fall short of market expectations, we anticipate that investors may rotate their positions out of China and into Japan, a pattern we already observed during the lead-up to China’s previous round of stimulus announcements..
Expressing Our View:
We maintain our previous trade setup:
Long Nikkei 225 Index Futures
Based on a Fibonacci Extension drawn from the October 2023 to the July 2024 high, the daily chart shows the index rebounding from the 5 August low of 31,156; but has since consolidated within 37,700 – 39,500.
If Dollar strength remains, we expect an appreciation in USD/JPY to send the Nikkei 225 Index upwards towards resistance at the 0.786% extension level around 40,500 within the month of November. If breached, we see the next resistance level at around 43,000 – 43,050.
• Entry Level: 39,000
• Target Level: 40,500 (1-Month target)
• Stop Loss Level: 38,500 (trailing stop preferred)
• Profit at Target: 1500 x ¥500= ¥750,000
• Loss at Stop: 500 x ¥500= ¥250,500
• Reward: Risk Ratio: 3x
Trade Nikkei 225 with Phillip Nova now
Japan Nikkei index- just a quick post to show u something.
- As always everything is in the graphic.
- Now look at Japan Index closely.
- So a quick crash happened but look where Nikkei Bounced.
- i always speak in my posts that :
- " Supports are always turning to resistances ".
- " Resistances are always turning as supports ".
- Here you have a perfect exemple with Nikkei225.
- if u can trade Cryptos, u can trade anything else!
Happy Tr4Ding !
JPN225 LongThis trade is with the trend
There is no pattern
stop loss below the last structure
take profit at M15 overbought
Japan 225: Amid Bearish Momentum and Global UncertaintyThe Japan 225 index is currently trading below the FibCloud, signaling a potential downward trend. My target for this short trade is around the 35,500- 36,200price area, where I anticipate significant support based on historical price movements and Fib levels. For now, I’ll let the trade run, while closely monitoring price action near the 40,000 zone. It’s crucial that the price remains below this level for the short trade to remain valid. A recovery back above 40,000 could signal a reversal, and in such a case, I may reassess my strategy.
Technical Overview:
• Partials: 38,000- 37,000area.
• Stop Loss: Monitoring the 40,000 zone as a key level of resistance.
• Key Indicators: The FibCloud provides strong bearish signals, and the declining price action suggests continued selling pressure.
• Risk Management: I’ll adjust the stop-loss level accordingly if the market shows signs of recovery or increased volatility. Taking partials at key support levels to secure profit remains an essential part of this strategy.
Fundamental Overview:
• Asia-Pacific Market Sentiment: As noted in the news, Asia-Pacific markets are mixed with attention on China’s loan prime rate announcement and Japan’s general election at the end of the week. While China’s central bank cut the one- and five-year LPRs by 25 basis points, this has not done enough to boost confidence, especially with property stocks tumbling.
• Japan’s Economic Data: Japan’s exports fell by 1.7% in September compared to the same period last year, signaling a potential slowdown in trade. Additionally, the Nikkei closed marginally lower recently, indicating bearish market conditions.
• Global Outlook: Japan’s market might be impacted further by inflation figures and GDP data expected this week, adding volatility and making the short trade setup timely.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
NIKKEI Long Trade Targets Await!NIKKEI Trade Details:
The Nikkei index on the hourly timeframe confirms a bullish setup, with a clear long entry signal as per the Risological swing trading indicator . The trend is gaining strength, and the chart suggests a potential move towards profit targets.
NIKKEI Key Levels:
Entry: 38304
Stop Loss (SL): 38004
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 38674
TP2: 39273
TP3: 39873
TP4: 40243
NIKKEI Analysis:
The chart indicates a recovery with higher lows and sustained buying pressure. The Risological trendline confirm the bullish trend, and momentum indicators align with the upward trajectory. With calculated risk, this trade offers a solid reward ratio.
NIKKEI Outlook:
Monitor for momentum consistency to hit targets. Stay alert for profit-locking opportunities at each target level to maximize gains. Watch out for resistance near higher levels to secure returns effectively.
AFTER FLOW: NI225 / USDJPY TRADE RESULTSAccount Performance: The account shows a total net profit of $2,703.38, with all six trades being profitable, resulting in a 100% win rate.
Trading Statistics:
Total Trades: 6 (3 short trades and 3 long trades).
Profit Factor: High, as there were no recorded losses, leading to a consistent profit.
Largest Profit Trade: $1,383.82, with an average profit per trade of $450.56.
Risk Metrics:
Balance Drawdown: 0.00%, indicating that the account did not experience any drawdown during
this period, which suggests effective risk management.
Sharpe Ratio: 0.90, reflecting a solid return relative to the assumed risk.
Observations:
The report highlights effective trade execution with a strategy that maintained positive gains across all positions. This consistency demonstrates a disciplined approach, potentially using hedging or balanced entries to manage exposure. The absence of drawdown could indicate conservative leverage usage or well-planned entry points.
Nikkei 225 (JPN225) Potential Bullish Reversal from Demand ZoneAnalysis Summary
Resistance Zone and Weak High: The price previously reached a high around 40,200, forming a weak high within a resistance zone. If the price approaches this level again, it may encounter selling pressure, but a breakout could signal a continuation of the bullish trend.
Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH): The recent BOS and CHoCH events indicate a potential shift in momentum. The BOS on the upside suggests a bullish structure, but the CHoCH warns of a possible retracement.
Demand Zone Support: A significant demand zone lies between 38,690 and 38,234. This area may act as a support level if the price retraces down to it, providing a potential base for a bullish reversal.
Potential Reversal Target: If the price finds support in the demand zone and reverses upward, the weak high and resistance zone around 40,200 could be the primary target for a bullish move.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Reversal from Demand Zone: If the price moves into the demand zone (38,690–38,234) and finds buying interest, a bullish reversal could follow, targeting the weak high around 40,200. This would align with the bullish structure indicated by the recent BOS.
Continuation of Bearish Retracement: If the price fails to hold in the demand zone, a further decline toward lower support levels would be possible, which would weaken the bullish outlook.
Conclusion
The Nikkei 225 is approaching a demand zone, where a bullish reversal could emerge, supported by the recent BOS indicating an uptrend. Traders may look for buying opportunities within 38,690–38,234, aiming for a potential upside move toward 40,200. Monitoring price action in the demand zone will be crucial for confirming the reversal setup.
Nikkei: Prepare to short againThis is the projection on where Nikkei will hit it's wave 2 peak. We are around 100 points away from the target. Get ready.
JP225 / NIKKEI 225 Index Bank Money Heist Plan on Bullish Side.Ola! Ola! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰
This is our master plan to Heist JP225 / NIKKEI 225 Index Bank based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low
Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 2h timeframe
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Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
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Nikkei to break to the upside?NIK225 - 24h expiry
Price action looks to be forming a bottom. Posted a Bullish Hammer Bottom on the 4 hour chart.
This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return.
Further upside is expected, however, due to the strong resistance above we prefer to buy a break of 38857, which will confirm the bullish sentiment.
Short term bias is mildly bullish.
We look to Buy at 38857 (stop at 38357)
Our profit targets will be 40057 and 40357
Resistance: 39660 / 42155 / 45325
Support: 37705 / 36330 / 34955
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
JP225 Long H1Buy @ 38195.50
S/L @ 37783.80
T/P @ 38814.50
RRR @ 1/1.5
Pure Price Action Trading based on Breakout of Key Levels.
Nikkei 225 Short: Going into Wave 3I have updated the wave counts for Nikkei and based on this new wave count, we are going into a wave 3 down. The old wave count would also be a wave 3, but I think this is a cleaner count.
JP225 Long D1Buy Stop Entry @ 38649.60
S/L @ 30467.20
T/P1 @ 46877.70
T/P2 @ ---------
R.R.R. @ 1/1
Pure Price Action analysis based on Breakout of target level.
NIKKEI 225 INDEX: Breaks Out! TP1 Done – Higher Targets AwaitNIKKEI 225 INDEX Analysis:
The Nikkei Index shows promising bullish momentum on the 15-minute timeframe, with the first target (TP1) successfully reached using the Risological Swing Trading Indicator. This long trade setup suggests a potential continuation towards higher targets as buying pressure remains strong.
Key Trade Details:
Entry Level: 38,384.25
Target Levels:
TP1: 38,544.16 (Achieved ✅)
TP2: 38,802.91
TP3: 39,061.66
TP4: 39,221.57
Stop Loss: 38,254.88
Market Insight:
The Nikkei’s breakout reflects positive sentiment in the Japanese equity market, likely influenced by global economic factors and investor optimism. This upward movement aligns with a strengthening technical trend, supporting the possibility of reaching the remaining targets if the bullish momentum sustains.
Summary:
With TP1 already hit, traders eye the remaining targets. A tight stop loss below the recent breakout level offers protection while allowing for gains as the trade progresses towards TP2 and beyond.
NIKKEI is starting the new bullish phase.NIKKEI (NI225) gave us the most accurate buy entry we could get last time (September 10, see chart below) as we bought right above the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the price immediately rebounded to the 0.786 Fib of its July 11 High:
The symmetry with the September - December 2023 fractal continues to be striking, which is also evident on the 1D RSI which made a 2nd bounce on the Symmetrical Pivot Zone as the previous fractal did on December 08 2023.
The price bounced on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the December 2023 rally that followed, reached the 1.786 Fibonacci extension before the next short-term consolidation.
As a result, we can upgrade our medium-term Target to 43000, which is still considerably below the 1.786 Fib.
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Jap225Jap225 will break out soon . Price will raise to marked levels ofcourse there is retracement and consolidation after break out however its interesting to catch the wave .
DAX INDEX (DAX): Confirmed CHoCH & Bullish OutlookI spotted a clear change of character(CHOCH) on the 4-hour time frame of the 📈DAX chart.
The market is currently trading in a strong bullish trend and has broken through a minor bearish trend and a key horizontal resistance level.
It is expected that the market will continue to move upwards, with the next resistance level being at 39,555.
NI225 possible retraceMight go to search the upper support at 41k to retrace back to 38,500 in search of more strength to keep up with the uptrend.
Have a look at a possible down divergence of the price against the RSI and CCI
Nikkei 225 short: a follow upFollowing my previous idea to short that somehow played out perfectly (a rare occurrence), I'm not calling out another short with the updated wave counts.
Nikkei Short.Nikkei is looking weak along with all of the major indices across different exchanges.
33,500 first target
29,000 second target
