$IBM$IBM [ nice bull flag. It was a while IBM give us such nice and clear set ups. Double stochasics set up on 1 H and Daily charts
IBM trade ideas
IBM Corp Daily (12.08.2014) Technical Analysis TrainingThe IBM Corp (NYSE:IBM) Daily Diagram Technical Analysis training shows the following:
IBM share has reacted from the bottom of KUMO and nw is exactly on the EMA 200. The 0.618 of fib @188.42 is the test for today.
So the first think in mind is the overcome of Top of KUMO and the KijunSen_Tenkan Sen resistance at 189.99 for this week.
We have no special candlestick pattern. The share is into the KUMO and under the Kijun Sen (blue line) and Tenkan Sen too (green line). The Chikun Span has a block of resistance.
There is no special pattern.
Long for 188.42 first and 189.99 secondly. Stop loss 185 (0.5 of fib).
IBM, from long to shortMy long entry at 160 & 161 were unsuccessful. Price turned against me
haha caught with my pants down
Make some losses and so quickly turned short at 159.70 and immediately turn short, next quick target around 153.70
RSi trendline was broken, but overall bullish divergence still in play until signal break below prior RSI low.
IBM's well oiled wheel could be about to drop off. Just read this article on www.marketwatch.com
"IBM
• Sector: technology
• Market value: $160 billion
• 2014 return: -13%
While most large caps have risen from October’s slide, IBM has been left behind. That means a great buying opportunity for long-term investors.
IBM is one of those mega-cap tech stocks that have a place in almost every portfolio. For starters, there’s the 2.7% dividend yield and a history of payouts since 1916. There’s also the stability that comes with a company that does roughly $100 billion in annual sales and sports over $14 billion in cash and investments on its balance sheet."
Source full article : www.marketwatch.com
One could dig real deep and find all sorts of justifiable reasons why such reputable company should continue it's upward price trajectory in to indefinite future.
However, from the price history on this chart, I suspect that we have just completed a 5 wave cycle that could be also a larger 5 wave cycle that began from bottom of 1929-1932 Wall Street crash. See the chart of Dow as surrogate for the sector.
Even ignoring the price history before 1980, having completed 5 wave cycle, EW guidelines suggest price correcting to wave 4 low of one cycle degree lower. That suggest a ball park figure in the region of $70-50 area.
Is it the right time to buy this stock or many others like it. I think not. Rather wait for few more year and pick it up at bargain basement price may be $50 or lower.
Or better still consider long term far out of the money PUT Options and sit back.
As always do you own analysis. Select to follow me and the chart for any future updates or new charts. Share it freely with others you feel might benefit from this chart.
If you have specific alternative view and chart to share please feel fee to do so.
IBM, short term longUpon releasing the bad earning results, IBM gap down and followed through to channel bottom as can be seen from the massive volume. I considered this as climatic selling.
Price move upward and got rejected by 8ema again and touching channel bottom again on Thursday.
Both long at 161, then 160 were triggered, the short-term target is 172.4
Will $IBM Hold 165.97? It's unlikely but may take the market Today's price weakness to hold above 170 was a big concern and a sign of big guys are not ready to jump in now. If what we see is accurate, there is higher chance that $IBM may finally retest 155 area next 3-months and that could be a market indicator for what to come next 3 months. If you decide to take a short position, make your stop lose at 172.5 with target prices 155 and 145 area.
I got some attention from Buffett24days ago, i posted on IBM's consolidating triangle since the appearance of shooting star on 9 Apr.
I took a risk on 25 Sept to short when the price got rejected by my 8ema & 20ema (posted in real-time as you can check the different in candle).
When the price broke down of the smaller triangle bottom, and followed by the broke down again of the bigger triangle bottom, i knew my odds are in good hand.
My original anticipation is for the price to retest the bottom of the bigger triangle before the next lower low.
And, since i am ready to lose first before i make handsome gain, i am mentally prepared for IBM's earning to beat analyst's expectation. If that is the case, the price will surely GAP UP and perhaps testing the 200ema. Then i would have to hold the options longer until the price drop
Hence, somehow it is just an early Christmas gift from Warren Buffett (IBM is one of his holdings)
In a matter of 3 weeks, i shorted KO & IBM, i think i got some attention from Buffett, he he
NOTE: Holding an options and carry it into earning can either slaughter your gain or flush you with handsome gain. But always be prepared to lose first
IBM.Prediction.Hello.Stock stages are on the chart.I Havent draw the decline stage because its hasnt established and we dont see yet a specific signal.We had a support (172.23) and then a uptrend still today(blue trend line).Furthermore the price has reach the resistance level 1 (fibo 23.6%) and next weeks will be important to see if the price go above that level or below.
Now.From MA10, MA20 we dont have a specific signal which can shown us if the market will go above the resistance level 1 because they cross each other, which mean that we have a short indecision there. In addition volume show us that buyers and sellers are not so aggresive after the support.Generally i think that this time its not good option to take part in this stock.
If the stock smash the level 1 we go for next high at level 2 (in my opinion i think that this will not happen).The most possible scenario is to enter the decline stage at least in the end of the year.Stop losses when the price go below MA295 and all of your position if smash the blue trend line(which is and the primary trend line for this year)
Thanks.
IBM Corp Daily (10.Sep.2014) Technical Analysis Training The IBM Corp (NYSE:IBM) Daily Diagram Technical Analysis training shows the following:
IBM share has declined following a resistance red line into a triangle. The weekly diagram is neutral.
So the first think in mind is the reaction from the KUMO.
We have no special candlestick pattern. The share is on the KUMO and under the Tenkan Sen too (green line). The SPAN A is above SPAN B.
There is no special pattern.
Long for the upper resistance first. Stop loss under the KUMO.
**In a long term view I saw a reversal pattern that could drive the share at 220 and upper.
IBM Bulls need to keep the fight Last 3 sessions, market helped the bulls to keep the fight, but it looks bears are not giving up soon. The chance the price to retrace back to 186.20 increased today. We had entered or recommended short entry at 192 last Thursday with target price $186.20 area.There is a large bearish triangle in the process, last higher lows at and around 183. 58 the low of this month stopped short to breakout downside, and rebounded with light volume as the general market did it. Now, there two conflicting bullish/bearish triangle but the chance to see that happen will depend on what market does next few weeks. Until then, we expect to make a few QLT/QST trades. The site now is open for new clients if you are interested in you can checkout www.2waytrading.com
IBM Daily (18.08.2014) Tech Analysis EMAThis week we will see the EMA (50,100,200) and MACD,RSI for various diagrams.
The IBM Share (IBM) Daily Diagram Technical Analysis Training shows the following:
The IBM tries to breach the EMA 50 today with a long green candlestick from 0.5 of fib to 0.618. There is a sense of bull market because the EMA 50 is above EMA 100 & EMA 200 and EMA 100 is above EMA 200 too. There are some Golden crosses last month.
MACD is turning bullish on the zero line. RSI moves to 51.
There is a support line and all seems bullish.
If it closes as is, long for 191.96 first and stop loss under 187.73.
Updated 14 Months, IBM Circle Cycle Theory I've made an enormous amount of progress in the past 14 months concerning a price action system that works for me. Tim West asked me to update this chart, and I've cleaned it up, scraped the circle theory idea, and replaced it with my own system that is far more accurate and MUCH more simple.
Essentially, I created this chart with much less understanding of how markets move. Today, I've annotated areas of accumulation, distribution, legs, and levels. The areas of support gained will eventually become support lost as price attempts to retest the Leg Start. This is a rule that price always follows, but could take time. You will also notice that key levels also usually line up with Fibonacci levels. I only use fib levels for all time high breakouts these days, but call it whatever you like, I just included it for those of you that like using fibs.
The target area that I'm interested in is the first touch of the Leg Start around 130, and if momo continues, even a test of the LS Mean Point around 100.
Chart from 14 Months Ago:
