CME GroupBuying here at 113.54 on a ~8% pullback from new 52wk high made about 3wks ago. Looking for 120 target. Using a ~112.50 stop on this one. Worth the Risk v Reward
MX4A trade ideas
National TV Alert: Caveat Emptor: Buyer Beware For CMESometimes I see stocks recommended on national TV coverage and I would bet that people rush out and buy on these "tips".
I watched as-CME was recommended. I just couldn't think of any reasons why.
CAVEAT EMPTOR is a Latin phrase that means:
"The principle that the buyer alone is responsible for checking the quality and suitability of goods before a purchase is made."
If you are considering-CME, here is what I ask you to consider:
Here are ONE DOZEN negatives I see in-CME, and why I feel this is a sell:
1. Sell Fractal in effect (red rectangle on chart).
2. Alligator jaws NOW OPENED in tandem with sell Fractals. Alligator feeding in new down-trend. THIS IS YOUR DIRECTIONAL COMPASS.
3. Chop indicator (under chart) is below the 38.2 shaded area. This indicates a strong down trend.
4. Phase energy (lower top indicator) is below the zero line. **
5. 34 day moving average (top indicator)-is bearish .
6. Prices are trading into the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
8. Prices are trading below the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
9. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line. This is a sell signal.
10. The red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
11. The Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
12. The CHOP ZONE indicator (under chart) is red, indicating a down trend.
** The lower top indicator is a forward projection as follows: For an estimation of possible FORWARD TRENDING I use the Ichimoku Cloud Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): (Conversion Line + Base Line)/2)). This is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line. The Leading Span A forms one of the two Cloud boundaries. It is referred to as "Leading" because it is plotted 26 periods in the future and forms the faster Cloud boundary. I then make an oscillator out of this and plot the progress up and down around a “zero line”.
I HAVE THE RESULTS OF THESE CALCULATIONS FOR-CME IN THE TOP LOWER INDICATOR.
IT IS VERY NEGATIVE.
The same person would recommended CME-yesterday also recommended GDX-one day before is dropped 15% in one day.
Do I see an upside reversal for-CME? No, I do not.
Conclusions: CAVEAT EMPTOR - LET THE BUYER BEWARE.
I hope all of your trades go well. Don.
Time to launch long positions in CME Group?
It dawned on me quite a long time ago that simple trend lines and Fibonacci retracement levels are the best tool for people who are afraid of elevated risks and are not looking for big profit. This is usually the case for calm speculative traders with a modest appetite and mid-term investors. As for today’s trends, just look what Fibonacci retracement levels were seen in CME Group stocks. What a strike in the Fibonacci 161.8% retracement level. It’s looking really great.
Needless to say, it’s a little late to trade short, as chances looked better at 100. Meanwhile, it might not be a bad idea to launch long speculative positions from the upper bound of the 2009 rising band at USD 90.
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CME - Bearish divergence follow upThis is a follow up to my CME short chart which was a mistake in the first place. I explained on the chart how a failed divergence was a bullish signal. The mistake was entirely mine, and all the signals were there.
Here is the weekly chart which was bullish at the time I took the short trade
CME - Class A bearish divergenceCME has a high accuracy when it comes to divergences. You can look back and check some of them. We have a class A bearish divergence at an important resistance area, 77-78$. The Weis Wave shows a change in behavior, but following that selling volume, we had strong buying volume, and the progress wasn't minimum, so the pattern here is debatable. Cme likes trading in ranges, so first target at 73$. Second target at 70$, but considering how CME moves, I believe the focus should be on the first target.
CME - Nice shorting opportunityThe chart is very messy, so I will walk through everything I've drawn.
1. A weekly H&S pattern, it's clear on the daily too. Target about 60$. A weekly close below 68-69 would confirm the pattern.
2. After a lateral movement since the start of the year, CME broke the rectangle and retested it.
3. Look where the last retracements ended, at 50% of the rally/decline. It seems like the current rally rejected the 50% fib of the decline.
4. Look at the volume and its MA of this rally. It is very very light.
5. The MACD histogram is allready at a level where rallies usually end, and started ticking down. It looks overbought, and consider how little the price advanced.
6. The EMA's are perfect dynamic support/resistance areas, from where to enter in the main direction. Currently price is at its EMA's.
7 Suport levels are taken from the weekly, and if you zoom out you can see their importantce also on the daily. What is really nice is that we have a confluence of harmonics exactly at these levels. The 2nd and the 3rd targets both have the 'D'/'d' points of an AB=CD pattern. Besides this, target number 2 has also the 1.618 fib of the 'bc' rally.
All these facts point to a clear short for me. My bias is short on the US market, and I believe Monday will be an important day which will give us some hints of future prices. But, CME does not have a good correlation with the US market, so that is a plus, cause if I am wrong on the US market, CME doesn't necessarily move with it, at least not for long.
Because of the clear support areas, I wan't to make a trade plan and follow it. I will manage the trade as follows:
1 Open a trade if there is no big gap up at the open, that would automatically put this trade on stand by. Stop loss at 72.30$.
2 Take 30% off the table at the first target, and set the stop to breakeven. If CME is going to continue down, it shouldn't touch my entry level, as it is quite far away.
3 Take 40% off the table at the second target. I will move my stop above a swing high above the first target, by that time there should be a clear one, at least on the smaller time frames. IF, after reaching the second target, there will be a retest of of the 65-66$ level, with a shorting signal, I may want to add to my short position. Otherwise, I won't be adding anymore to my original position.
4 Close out the trade at the 3rd target. This is very far away, and if CME will go there, I do not want to keep anymore of my original position.
CME - Double bottom at buy zone***After posting the chart, for some reason I don't know, probably a technical error, the hammer became a piercing line pattern. So no hammer, but piercing line***
First of all, I need to say that the trade has no confirmation yet, but it's starting to look bullish.
As you can see, CME rallied to 85$ and formed a double top. Target was at 72$, and respected it, without a big fight, closing below the first strong support zone at 78$ with ease.
Now, it's looking like a double bottom at a good daily support area, close to a very very strong weekly support, and a psychological level. There is a hammer at the current level, but I always wait for confirmation. Looking at the histogram, we can see a nice bullish divergence forming, bulls being much weeker now than a few weeks ago. Looking at the MACD lines, we have a class B bullish divergence. As I wrote in the chart, histogram is going flat, not higher, so neither divergence is confirmed yet, they are still forming.
So, we don't have candle confirmation and no divergence confirmation, so it's good to be patient. As long as we stay on top of the weekly support area, I'm looking to buy.
CME testing support, getting thrust after Cup and handleI am going to set this chart on neutral because I don't see the buying signal yet, and all the global markets are down this week. I am allready long this stock, I'm currently sitting on a loss, waiting for the market to turn, with a stop under the daily support and the last swing low.
Now let's have a look at the chart. The most obvious point of this chart is the Cup and handle, nothing to explain here. After breaking the top of this formation and rallying for a while, we now have a pullback. I bought on the first touch of the support level and the hammerish candle, let's see if we have another buy signal. A move under this support level would cancel this setup, and i would wait for it to retrace to the weekly support or the area between the two moving averages which for me represents a buy zone. On the MACD we have a huge class A bearish divergence, and price is acting acordingly, but since we are still in an uptrend if we look at the moving averages, it might be just a small correction. According to this theory, I would wait for another buy signal around the daily support. If I will see one, I will post a comment. Till then, it is just sitting and watching
