UUUNITED STATES STEEL DL 1
46.865EURD
+0.890+1.94%
As of today at 06:03 GMT
EUR
No trades
USX1 trade ideas
US Steel - a super-imposition of past bull runsDo you buy into the commodities supercycle as it relates to steel - www.bloomberg.com Certainly the strength in steel prices portend plenty of further returns. For example, analysts seem to be severely underestimating US Steel's earnings for the next few quarters. However, it looks like there will be plenty of volatility along the way, and HODling US Steel is the best way. On the other hand, if you believe US Steel earnings are peaking, then US Steel might not have much in its tank left, and waiting for a much more attractive price would be the course of action.
My own personal analysis give a fair value of $50+ and $70 if we were to go back to old multiples. But of course, valuations mean little in today's markets, and prices can stay depressed for long periods of time.
United States Steel Corp.The price of United States Steel Corporation is in a valid uptrend which is supported by the 50MA. It also formed a hammer candle at a significant support level. The trade will be entered when the price confirms the hammer candle at 27$ and the stop will be placed at 23.50$. The ATR Stops (default settings) will be used to manage the stop.
The Week Ahead: ARKK, ARKG, GDXJ, MJ, XBI, XLE, X, CLF, SAVE, FHere's where the premium was at as of Friday's close:
Broad Market Exchange-Traded Funds With 30-Day Implied >20%:
IWM (1/23)
Comments: I have quite a bit of IWM on here, but my order of preference is broad market, then sector, then single name, so am comfortable with adding if we get both weakness and a pop in volatility. IWM/RUT has been fairly rangebound, so it's worthwhile to pop open a chart and see where the bottom of the range is and where any puts you sell are relative to the range between 210 and 235.
Sector Exchange-Traded Funds With 30-Day Implied > 35%:
ARKK (31/45)
ARKG (18/41)
GDXJ (0/40)
MJ (7/40)
XBI (12/38)
XLE (2/36)
Comments: I've got ARKK, ARKG, and MJ July monthlies on, so I may look to add some GDXJ, even though its implied volatility is literally at the bottom of the 52-week range (which is still afflicted by the 2020 pandemic range, so implied volatility rank/percentile aren't all that helpful here), and it isn't exactly weak relative to where it's been. MJ and XBI are currently the most weak out of the group, so I'm personally leaning toward putting on some more XBI, having taken have a June trade last week.
Single Name With 30-Day >50% That Do Not Have Earnings Before Contract Expiry:
X (Steel) (9/74)
CLF (Basic Materials) (18/73)
SAVE (Airlines) (2/55)
F (Autos) (19/55)
OXY (Oil and Gas) (8/53)
SABR (Airlines; Technology) (25/51)
MRO (Oil and Gas) (0/50)
Comments: Given the slim pickings in the broad market and exchange-traded funds space, I've made a list of options highly liquid single name to potentially play while I wait for broad market or sector volatility to return. This list isn't exhaustive, and I've culled out a ton of meme names that have juicy implied volatility but are more likely to become a headache because they're (ironically) too volatile or they're in a space where they're more likely to blow up in my face (e.g., biopharma research and development, crypto).
Pictured here is an X July 16th 22 Short Put (20 delta), paying .74/contract as of Friday close, 3.48% ROC at max/27.6% annualized. As you can see, that play is somewhat close to price action of late, so I'd only put that play on if you're comfortable with potentially taking assignment at 22 and then wheeling it from there. Alternatively, opt for a setup that is consistent with any directional assumption you have as to where U.S. Steel goes from here and that takes advantage of the high implied here.
X -US Steel, maybe a little higherThis may have a few more days of gains.
Notice the MACD BLUE line still hasn't curled to begin cross under YELLOW signal line.
RSI still has potential to climb a little higher until it is in high oversold territory.
1D candle is above the Bollinger Band so be careful.
I like the 0.818 fib and BLUE upper trend line a close - I believe that is a short term target, be for a sell off and cool down.
Long term - this is Bullish. Just not an entry point yet.
Good Luck
US Steel (X) Approaching End of Bull Flag - Potential BreakoutUS Steel (X) has been on an uptrend for months now as it rides the reflation trade theme. In this uptrend, new highs have been followed frequently by periods of consolidation and clean bull flags. As price falls back toward the longer-term rising trendline, the bull flag is broken and X enjoys a rally. While past performance is not indicative of future results, the fundamental and technical picture of X look encouraging.
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X on the way (again) to $30Such a beautiful parallel channel for X. Excelent entry point today with a PT of $30
Any thoughts?
Good luck to all!
(*This is not financial advice, for sake of discussion and illustrative purposes only*)
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Bullflag XThe amount of Building permits giving by the U.S government for the month of April is release tomorrow 5/18. That info could be the catalyst if good to help the bull flag breakout. If it does breakout 30 is the target. if there is a rejection , a trip back to the trendline around 24$ is in store
Uptrend ContinuationStop @ 22, the uptrend remains strong Pullbacks is still possible. Target 34
Morgan Stanley analyst Carlos de Alba upgraded X to Buy from Hold in a Monday report, raising his target for the stock price to $32 a share from $24.
Technical analysis is just Astrology for traders .. Good Luck
not best of breedsucker is overbought, ready to fall, let's be honest nobody wants to be in this name forever, conviction is weak, not even the largest producer in the U.S., this thing is just a trade ...and that trade is about to unwind for this time wave...
no position yet, rolling into a 126 May 28 PUT if it catches a bid tomorrow
