VVVODAFONE GROUP PLC
0.9420EURD
−0.0040−0.42%
At close at Jul 17, 21:34 GMT
EUR
No trades
VODI trade ideas
VODAFONE 190 September CALL (long)It's difficult to know, at any given time, what is happening with Vodafone (VOD). Mergers, acquisitions, sales, purchases, entering new markets, leaving old markets, profits, losses, etc. Which is why I'm going to focus mainly on the technical side of things.
Since 2013 VOD has been in a range between a low of around 190 and a high of around 255. Thus far this range has been very consistent. In fact, the 190 zone was an area of resistance going back as far as 2001 - before the price broke out above 190, and it became support. Look at the weekly / monthly time frame to see for yourself.
Therefore, I have some confidence that the area of 190 has some clout, and unless things get really bad, serves as a place where sellers stop selling and buyers start buying.
Just recently we saw the departure of Vodafone CEO Vittorio Colao on the 15th of May. This apparently crashed the price of VOD, but only back to the 190 zone. Such a departure may bring a breath of fresh air in the future, and assuming the right person is brought in may help to raise the share price higher in the future.
As far as the latest results go (15th May), they were the usual mix of negative group revenue (as it has been forever now), low single digit organic revenue, losses in India and an EBITDA cherry on top.
So I'm trading this with an option. I have bought (long) a 190 strike September CALL on VOD. My initial target is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, although the 50% is what I am ideally aiming for. However, I fear the fact that I may not have enough time for volatility to work its magic. So I would be more inclined to take profit at 38.2%.
Miner was wrong, I was right. Two more days I'm assuming bearin continuation of my previous post:
Based on dailies, I'm showing a reoccurring 3-5 day retracement after every 6 or so push up. With that (and the macd, stoch, cci, and rsi), I'm continuing to assume a short position for the next day at least.
Long term, there might be a swing back as I note with the ABC line.
Let me know your thoughts
$vod breakout lookout-long term trend- uptrend and showing strength
-intermediate timeframe shows trend is in an uptrend but slightly flattening
-volatility is contracting.. pressing up on resistance area of 29.9x
-not paying too much attention to rsi here because of stock showing strong trend strength.
-positive volume pressure being applied
-shorter timeframe is showing price action in a symmetrical triangle with a .20 measured move- which would lead to the break of resistance area up to 30.0x
-cautious to the possibility of a false breakout- entry at 30.05 and setting stop at 29.71 gap low
-once resistance is broken extension level/profit target set at the .618 level of 31.67
Long VOD to ~232 levelI like the current dynamic of Vodafone share and the strong upwards momentum they currently have.
This is still an evolving chart so perhaps a trailing stop would be more appropriate here to avoid being hit large on any pull backs, which I would expect to be spiky like the rebound from the 190 level.
Multidiagonals currently seem to target around the 232 level.
Vodafone - 8-year long rising trend line breachedVodafone shares have breached a long-term rising trend line. We are still away from November close. Prices could drop to 150 area over Q1, 2017 if the monthly candle does confirm a bearish break.
The monthly MACD also shows the bearish momentum is gathering pace, while the RSI too has slipped below 50.00 levels.
Vodafone – Symmetrical triangle formation on daily chart
Multiple failures around 234-235 levels followed by a sharp drop today suggests the prices could be heading lower to the symmetrical triangle floor seen around 226 levels.
Daily MACD and RSI have turned flat, while the volumes have stayed healthy. Moreover, break in volumes above 20-day average today would add credence to possibility of a drop to 226 levels.
Bearish invalidation is seen only if prices see a day end close above symmetrical triangle resistance.
