J225 trade ideas
Long on Nikkei 225For now, I am long on Nikkei 225. We have a bottom, currently looking for a retest of broken support and a higher low. Once confirmed this is an easy long to the golden zone between 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels.
Target 1 - 39,400
Target 2 - 40,300
For mid term I will be looking for a significant pullback from the nikkei 225. However, there is still potential for bullish price action in the short term.
Nikkei 225 Wave Analysis 27 January 2025
- Nikkei 225 fall inside sideways price range
- Likely to fall to support level 38025.00
Nikkei 225 index recently reversed down from the strong resistance level 40285.00 (upper border of the tight sideways price range inside which the pair has been moving since October) standing close to the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 40285.00 stopped the previous minor wave c, which started earlier from the lower border of this price range 38025.00.
Nikkei 225 index can be expected to fall to the next support level 38025.00 – from where the index is likely to correct up.
Nikkei 225 index Wave Analysis – 12 February 2025
- Nikkei 225 index reversed support level 38000.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 40285.00
Nikkei 225 index recently reversed up from the support level 38000.00, which is the lower border of the narrow sideways price range inside which the index has been moving from last October. This support area was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band
The upward reversal from this support area created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Nikkei 225 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 40285.00 (the upper border of this price range).
J225 JAPANThe Nikkei 225, also known as the Nikkei Stock Average, is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). It is a price-weighted index comprised of 225 highly capitalized and liquid publicly owned companies in Japan from a wide array of industry sectors. The index is a key indicator of the Japanese stock market and the performance of the Japanese economy.
The index includes companies from various sectors such as technology, automotive, finance, retail, and healthcare. This broad representation ensures that fluctuations in the index reflect the overall performance of Japan's economy.
Automotive Powerhouse and Renowned automobile manufacturers such as Toyota Motor Corporation and Honda Motor Co., Ltd., are prominently featured in the Nikkei 225 Index.
Financial Institutions like Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., and Mizuho Financial Group Inc., form an integral part of the Nikkei 225 Index.
Global Giants and as well multinational corporations with a significant global presence are included in the Nikkei 225.
The Nikkei 225 is a price-weighted index, meaning that each component's weight is determined by its stock price rather than its market capitalization. However, companies with larger market capitalizations tend to have a greater influence on the overall index movement.
Review of Components of the index are done annually by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) to keep correct status of each member.
NIKKEI to see a capped rally?JP225USD - 24h expiry
Buying pressure from 38377 resulted in prices rejecting the dip.
The current move higher is expected to continue.
With the Ichimoku cloud resistance above we expect gains to be limited.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 39400 level.
We look to Sell at 39400 (stop at 39732)
Our profit targets will be 38452 and 37705
Resistance: 39660 / 40720 / 42155
Support: 37705 / 36330 / 34955
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Is there life in the old dog yet? Thoughts on Japan...Japan, once known for its high standard of living and expensive prices, has seen a dramatic shift. Today, Japan is often praised by travellers for its affordability, with the Yen weakened by decades of financial repression. While Japan's industrial and infrastructure standards remain high, its citizens are becoming poorer. The average monthly income has fallen sharply from $4,000 in 2012 to just $2,240, putting it on a par with countries such as Spain.
Japan's current economic policies, particularly its refusal to raise interest rates despite inflation remaining above the 2% target for over 31 months, are worrying enough. The Bank of Japan's reluctance to adjust interest rates due to Japan's high level of government debt has kept the key interest rate at just 0.25%. As a result, Japanese savers have turned to foreign currency investments, further weakening the Yen.
Currency depreciation has never led to greater competitiveness or long-term prosperity, and countries such as Argentina and Italy are examples of where such policies have failed to deliver the desired results. In contrast, countries such as Singapore, Norway and Switzerland remain at the top of global income rankings. We could also draw parallels with Germany's own departure from the "hard currency" club, as it and the wider Eurozone follow Japan's economic model.
Questions on my mind:
- Given Japan's current economic environment, how do we view on the long-term stability of the Yen?
- With Japanese wages stagnating, do we see opportunities in Japanese equities or sectors that could benefit from a weaker currency?
- How might Japan's refusal to raise interest rates affect foreign investment in the country over the next few years?
- Do you think the trend of low interest rates and currency depreciation will continue in the Eurozone and how might that affect global markets?
- In a scenario where Japan continues on this economic path, what other regions or emerging markets might offer better investment opportunities in comparison?
Nikkei225Nikkei225 is in a correction phase. The price has a chance to test the support zone of 37528-37039. If the price can still stand above 37039, it is expected that the price will have a chance to rebound.
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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JP225 - Elliott Wave Analysis & Market OutlookJP225 - Elliott Wave Analysis & Market Outlook
1. Elliott Wave Structure Analysis
🔹 5-3-5 Zigzag Formation
In the early phase, a 5-3-5 Zigzag correction was identified, indicating that after an A-B-C corrective phase, the market resumed an upward trend.
This classic correction pattern suggests that although there was a strong retracement, the overall trend remains bullish.
🔹 Double Three Running Flats
The market appears to have formed a Double Three Running Flat, which signals a sideways correction rather than a deep pullback.
A Running Flat structure typically suggests that after the correction completes, the trend will resume in its original direction. If this pattern belongs to a larger B wave, an impulsive C wave up is likely to follow.
🔹 Current Structure - WXY Correction
The latest wave count indicates a WXY corrective structure, with potentially marking the end of the correction.
If this belongs to a higher-degree B wave, we could be approaching the start of an impulsive C wave rally.
2. Key Support & Resistance Levels
✅ Major Support Zone
A strong support zone is marked in yellow, where price has rebounded multiple times.
As long as the market holds above this level, the likelihood of a bullish reversal increases.
🚨 Major Resistance Zone
Volume Profile shows significant resistance around 38,400, making it a key level to watch.
42,400 is the previous high and a crucial breakout level. If the price pushes above it, the rally could extend further.
3. Volume & Market Strength Analysis
📊 Volume Observations
The spike in volume near the support zone suggests that buyers are stepping in aggressively.
If price breaks above key resistance with strong volume, it would confirm the start of an impulsive move.
4. Trading Strategy & Outlook
📌 Short-Term Trading
Look for long opportunities near the support zone, with a stop-loss slightly below the recent low.
Initial target: 38,400-39,200 zone.
If this level breaks, the next target would be 41,000-42,400.
📌 Mid to Long-Term Positioning
If the WXY structure has completed, this could be the beginning of a larger impulsive rally.
Volume accumulation around 38,000 suggests that once price clears this level, a strong bullish continuation is likely.
📌 Risk Management
If the market breaks below the key support zone, a deeper retracement may occur, requiring a reassessment of the wave count.
Monitor price action and volume closely to avoid false breakouts.
Conclusion
✅ This study applies Elliott Wave principles, Volume Profile, and technical indicators to assess JP225’s trend structure.
✅ The market may be completing its correction phase, with a potential WXY structure signaling the end of the pullback.
✅ Watching for a breakout above Volume Profile resistance could provide confirmation of trend continuation.
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JP225 - Elliott 波浪分析與市場展望
1. 波浪理論結構分析
🔹 5-3-5 Zigzag 修正
在早期趨勢中，市場形成了一個 5-3-5 Zigzag 修正浪，顯示經過 A-B-C 修正後，市場重新進入反彈模式。
這是一種經典的修正形態，代表市場出現強烈回調，但整體趨勢仍然偏多。
🔹 雙重三浪 Running Flats
目前市場進入 雙重三浪 Running Flat 修正結構，這意味著 市場的修正是橫向延伸而非深度回調。
Running Flat 結構通常表示 修正完成後，市場將恢復原來趨勢。如果這屬於較大級別的 B 浪，那麼接下來有機會迎來 C 浪上升。
🔹 當前結構 - WXY 修正浪
近期的波浪結構顯示 WXY 組合修正浪，其中 可能是修正結束點。
如果這個結構屬於更大級別的 B 浪，市場可能即將進入 新的推動 C 浪，開啟新一輪漲勢。
2. 關鍵支撐與阻力位
✅ 主要支撐區域
黃色區域 標記的支撐位已多次測試並反彈，說明這是一個 強勁的支撐帶。
只要價格守住該區域，則市場仍有機會延續反彈。
🚨 主要阻力區域
成交量剖面（Volume Profile）顯示 38,400 附近有大量籌碼堆積，此區域將成為短期壓力位。
上方 42,400 為前高壓力位，若突破則可能開啟更大級別的上漲行情。
3. 量價結構分析
📊 成交量觀察
支撐區域成交量明顯增加，顯示資金正在積極進場。
若價格 突破關鍵阻力並伴隨放量，將進一步確認新一輪趨勢啟動。
4. 交易策略與市場展望
📌 短線操作建議
在支撐區附近尋找買點，並設置止損於支撐區下方。
第一目標價位：38,400-39,200。
若成功突破，則可進一步看向 41,000-42,400。
📌 中長線布局策略
若 WXY 修正結束，則市場可能即將進入 C 浪推動階段，適合開始中長線多單佈局。
38,000 附近成交量積累較大，若價格突破並站穩，可能會帶來更大級別的上升趨勢。
📌 風險控制建議
若價格 跌破關鍵支撐區並收於低點，則市場可能進一步下探，需要重新評估波浪結構。
需密切關注 成交量變化與價格行為，避免誤判行情。
總結
✅ 本次分析應用了 Elliott 波浪理論、成交量剖面（Volume Profile）及技術分析來判斷 JP225 的市場結構。
✅ 市場可能接近修正尾聲，WXY 結構的完成可能預示新一輪上升趨勢的啟動。
✅ 如果價格突破成交量密集區，則將進一步確認趨勢方向。
建議考慮加入 RSI 或 Impulse MACD 等動能指標，以進一步確認市場轉勢訊號！🚀
4-hr Japan 225: Japanese Stocks to Rise with 1500 pointsOver the past two weeks, Japan’s leading stock index surged 2,000 points, reflecting strong bullish momentum. However, this week saw a sharp sell-off, erasing nearly all gains since mid-January. Despite this drop, the decline stalled at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, a key technical level that historically acts as the final support before a correction turns into a full trend reversal.
Since yesterday, we’ve observed early signs of recovery, with the index bouncing 500 points from this crucial Fibonacci support. This price action suggests renewed buying interest, reinforcing our view that the market is poised for another upward move. Given this setup, we prefer to enter a buy trade, targeting a return to the recent highs above 40,500.
Furthermore, rising stock indices in the UK, EU, and USA support the broader hypothesis that global equities are rebounding, strengthening our bullish outlook on Japanese stocks.
