GERMANY - SHORT (15m TF trade)Shorter time frame trade, so a bit risky. But nevertheless if you see levels, have to take the trade.
My conviction for this trade is 5/10, so a small position trade with a SL.
Good luck
DE40 trade ideas
German Index (DE40) – 4-Hour Time Frame AnalysisGerman Index (DE40) – 4-Hour Time Frame Analysis
Market Context:
After a very strong bullish trend, the German Index (DE40) appears to be approaching a point where a potential retracement could take place. The market may be signaling a slowdown in bullish momentum, and a correction to the downside is a possibility.
Potential Take Profit Levels:
First Take Profit (TP1): 20,000
This level represents a key psychological point and may act as an initial target for traders.
Second Take Profit (TP2): 19,675
A crucial level where the price could retest significant support if the correction deepens.
Key Reminders for Trading:
Do Not Follow Blindly: Always analyze the market using your own strategies and trading techniques. Adapt based on live price action.
Trading is Reactive, Not Predictive: Focus on reacting to what the market shows rather than trying to predict future movements.
Capital Preservation is Key: Keeping your money is more important than making money. Always prioritize protecting your capital to stay in the game.
Final Notes:
This is the analysis for today on the German Index. Remember, these insights are for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Trade smart, be patient, and avoid impulsive decisions.
That’s it for today! Let me know your thoughts or if you need further clarification.
DAX and SPX - brother & sister
How to read the chart?
In the historical point of view, the ratio between the DAX und S&P 500 is swinging in significant boundaries. This boundaries are signed in the Chart with red dashed lines above or below a center line (average).
What you also can see, is the developement of DAX and S&P500 in EUR resp. USD with separate scales.
Where is the beef?
The extremes of these ratios show very reliable extremes of the DAX and S&P.
And it doesn‘t matter, wether the extremes in DAX are significant lows OR significant highs.
Last monthes:
Because the last relativ low below the red dashed line was a relative Low in DAX and SPX, the actual low below the red dashed line must be the indicator for a relativ High in the DAX and SPX.
So: for sure, big direction is ahead, even DAX and SPX can gain another 5-8%.
Dan, 11th of december.
DAX Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum Amid CPI VolatilityDAX Technical Analysis:
The price reversed from their ATH, and now has a bearish momentum as long as trades below 20350 will touch 20220 and then should break 20220 to continue the bearish trend toward 20020 and 19910.
Otherwise should break the ATH closing 1h or 4h candles above it to be a bullish area toward 20575
The market will be volatile due to the Result of CPI.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 20350
Resistance Levels: 20460, 20580
Support Levels: 20220, 20020, 19910
Trend Outlook: Bearish Momentum
DAX to breakdown?GER40 - 24h expiry
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Daily signals for sentiment are at overbought extremes.
A higher correction is expected.
A break of the recent low at 20259 should result in a further move lower.
Rallies should be capped by yesterday's high.
We look to Sell a break of 20245 (stop at 20365)
Our profit targets will be 19945 and 19845
Resistance: 20396 / 20474 / 20600
Support: 20259 / 20200 / 20119
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
1-hr GERMAN 40: The DAX Might Dip LowerThe German DAX has corrected by 200 points from its Monday highs, and further declines seem likely. This outlook is reinforced by the Death Cross—a well-known sell signal—indicating strong short-term bearish momentum. Other major indices, including the UK100, US100, and US30, are also experiencing declines. If the DAX is lagging these counterparts, further losses in the German index may follow. Currently, the price hovers near a resistance level around 20,340, which coincides with the significant 38% Fibonacci retracement. For traders looking to capitalize on the current bearish momentum, a more favorable risk-to-reward ratio might be achieved if the price retests the crucial 50% Fibonacci retracement level, located 50 points above the current value.
DAX Strong probability for a technical pull-back here.DAX (DE40) hit last week our 20000 Target, which we established 2 months ago (October 04, see chart below):
That Target was near the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Up that started on the week of the October 03 2022 bottom. As you can see, this pattern has topped both previous Bullish Waves on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level and after a pull-back consolidation phase (red Arc), it started the Bearish Legs that bottomed and made Higher Lows on Support 1, which was the previous Resistance level.
Having now already hit its 1.618 Fib ext, we expect DAX to pull-back a little and turn sideways as per the pattern, which we will short, targeting 19000 (Support 1). If however we see a 1W MA200 (blue trend-line) hit and immediate rebound and weekly closing above it, we will book our sell profit earlier.
Notice also the high symmetry on those Legs, between their 1W CCI fractals.
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GER 40 Trade Log GER40 4H Long Setup
Trade Idea:
- Long in the 4H FVG post-CPI wick grab, following a potential exhaustion of the ongoing short setup.
Confluence:
- FVG Zone: Price retraces into the 4H Fair Value Gap, providing a strong discounted entry point.
- Liquidity Grab: CPI wick likely cleared liquidity below, setting the stage for a bullish reversal.
- Dynamic Support: 4H Kijun aligns with FVG, reinforcing the zone as a high-probability support.
Risk-Reward:
- Tight stop-loss below the 4H FVG.
- Targeting 1:2+ RRR with initial profit-taking at 20,400 and extended targets toward 20,500 .
Quick Take:
If CPI triggers downside liquidity sweep, this setup offers a clean bullish reversal opportunity. Watch for confirmation before entry!
DAX // Preparation for Going ShortThis is Just Another Video Idea about riding the counter wave to the correction fibo 23.6.
———
Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼♂️
Your comments, questions, and support are greatly appreciated! 👊🏼
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 1H Short Setup
Trade Logic:
- Setup: Short position initiated within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) after a confirmed bearish structure and pre-market rejection.
- Confluence Factors:
- Fair Value Gap (FVG): Price retraces into a bearish FVG for a high-probability short entry.
- Break of Structure (BOS): Confirmed bearish break supports downside continuation.
- Kijun Resistance: 1H Kijun line aligns with the FVG, reinforcing dynamic resistance.
- Liquidity Grab: The price action indicates a sweep of liquidity above the FVG, creating strong rejection signals.
- Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR):
- Stop-loss set just above the FVG zone for tight risk management.
- 1:2.35 RRR as per chart, targeting liquidity zones below.
- Targets:
- TP1 near 20,309 , aligning with intermediate liquidity.
- TP2 around 20,250 for a deeper liquidity sweep.
Macro Context:
- Market Sentiment: GER40 shows bearish signals with a weakening broader market sentiment.
- Volume Profile: Declining buy-side volume within the FVG zone signals limited bullish interest.
- Pre-Market Behavior: Rejection from the FVG aligns with pre-market bearish tendencies, further supporting the setup.
Execution Plan:
- Short entry within the FVG zone, managing risk with a stop-loss above the FVG.
- Strict adherence to the 1:2.35 RRR with partial profit-taking at TP1 and remaining at TP2.
- Monitor market conditions and invalidate if price reclaims the FVG or breaks the Kijun level.
Extra Note: Keep an eye on macroeconomic triggers that could cause sudden volatility, particularly during the European session. Let me know if further adjustments are needed!
DAX downHoping to ride this down the .236 fib on the higher time frame. Lower highs and low formed on medium chart so i think we have a protected high above. Momentum down on all charts and a cycling high on the high time frame.
DAX // UndecidedLooking for a breakout of this neutral zone.
Primary long expansion from the green level (clear M15 breakdown), secondary short expansion from the red (clear H1 breakout).
———
Stay Patient, Stay Disciplined! 🏄🏼♂️
Your comments, questions, and support are greatly appreciated! 👊🏼
GER30 DAX - FOLLOW UP SHORT!As expected from my previous analysis, rejection from 20500 was made and daily topping tail was printed, expect further downside to possibly 19700
DAX forming a top?GER40 - 24h expiry
Sequence of 7 positive daily performances broken.
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Bearish divergence is expected to cap gains.
Short term MACD has turned negative.
A higher correction is expected.
Rallies should be capped by yesterday's high.
We look to Sell at 20415 (stop at 20535)
Our profit targets will be 20115 and 20025
Resistance: 20350 / 20474 / 20600
Support: 20260 / 20200 / 20000
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 1H Short Setup
Trade Logic:
- Setup: Short within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) following a clear bearish shift in market structure.
- Confluence Factors:
- Break of Structure (BOS): Price confirms a bearish break, with a clear Change of Character (ChoCH) reinforcing downside bias.
- FVG Rejection: Anticipating rejection within the 1H FVG as price retests this imbalance area, providing an optimal entry point.
- Kijun Resistance: Kijun line on the 1H timeframe aligns as a dynamic resistance level, further supporting bearish continuation.
- Risk-Reward: Minimum 1:2 RRR with a tight stop-loss above the FVG zone.
- Target: TP1 near liquidity at 20,306 ; TP2 at deeper liquidity grab around 20,260 .
Confluence Factors:
- Market Context: Indices showing signs of pullback after extended bullish momentum, with GER40 leading a potential retracement.
- Volume Signals: Declining buy-side volume during recent highs, indicating exhaustion and paving the way for downside.
- Liquidity Levels: Price action aligns with tapping liquidity from equal highs before driving into lower demand zones.
Execution Plan:
- Place short entries within the 1H FVG.
- Maintain tight risk management with a stop-loss just above the FVG zone.
- Reassess trade if price closes above the Kijun or invalidates the bearish structure.
Extra Note: Monitor macroeconomic news or EUR-related sentiment for potential catalysts that could impact volatility in GER40. Let me know if you'd like any additional details or adjustments!
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 Pre-Market Short Setup
Trade Logic:
- Setup: Short position initiated within the pre-market bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG), targeting the defined downside liquidity zones.
- Confluence Factors:
- Pre-Market Gap: Price retraced into the FVG formed during bearish pre-market movement, offering a low-risk, high-reward entry.
- Break of Structure (BOS): A confirmed bearish structure break reinforces downside momentum.
- Kijun Resistance: 1H and 4H Kijun levels align with the FVG, acting as strong dynamic resistance.
- Liquidity Grab: Recent liquidity sweep near the highs sets the stage for further bearish continuation.
- Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR):
- Stop-loss set just above the FVG to maintain a tight risk.
- 1:3.83 RRR as per the defined target zones on the chart.
- Targets:
- TP1 near 20,267 , aligning with local liquidity.
- TP2 at 20,240 , deeper liquidity grab zone for full target execution.
Macro Context:
- Market Sentiment: Pre-market signals and reduced buyer strength suggest increased selling pressure ahead of European market open.
- Economic Indicators: Risk-off behavior in broader markets supports bearish bias.
- Volume Profile: Weak buyer volume within the FVG zone adds confluence for downside continuation.
Execution Plan:
- Place short entries within the FVG zone with a stop-loss just above it.
- Strictly adhere to the 1:3.83 RRR, with partial profit-taking at TP1 and the remainder at TP2.
- Monitor the European open for any shifts in momentum that could invalidate the setup.
Extra Note: Stay updated on economic news or key macro triggers that could influence GER40's short-term price action. Let me know if you'd like further refinements!
DAX // Start of CorrectionThe bearish countertrend is valid on H4.
Therefore, until the H4 impulse base is not taken back by the buyers, the long H1 countertrend broken may signal that another down wave is coming.
———
Stay Patient, Stay Disciplined! 🏄🏼♂️
Your comments, questions, and support are greatly appreciated! 👊🏼
Ger40 Buy Limit OrderDear traders, please support my ideas with your likes and comments to motivate me to publish more signals and analysis for you.
Best Regards
Navid Nazarian
Germany - SHORT to 20000Price is way too stretched and time for a breather.
My prediction, price will go up a bit and then will drop to 20000.
Purely on price action. If you want to take this trade, have some space for SL hunters when placing SL.
DAX // Start of CorrectionThe market printed 3 waves down on H4 below the H4 long impulse base, after reaching the daily target fibo 223.6,
so the countertrend on H4 is valid.
The market may come in the counter space of the daily impulse.
———
Stay Patient, Stay Disciplined! 🏄🏼♂️
Your comments, questions, and support are greatly appreciated! 👊🏼
09.12.24This week, markets will focus on U.S. inflation data, the European Central Bank’s policy meeting. Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report could shape Federal Reserve rate decisions ahead of their final 2024 meeting, with inflation concerns heightened by strong jobs data and tariff risks. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to deliver its fourth rate cut of the year on Thursday, amid weak business activity, political instability in Europe, and a weaker euro. Investors will also monitor the resilience of the ongoing stock market rally, as record-high indices face potential pressure from key economic data.
US30: Price took lows at 44712.97 then price reversed sweeping Friday highs 45102.95 before trading lower towards 44606.01 price still traded within the previous weeks range. Already this week price has pushed past my first target of 44604.60. I still see price pushing lower towards lows are 44463.09 and 43521.40
GER40: After price broke Octobers highs of 19679.3 price continued to rally higher toward my goal of 20550. Germany as the biggest economy in the Eurozone and major export driven economy, many factors have supported the GER40
DAX // Starting Correction?The DAX is at a very important level, the H4 impulse base.
If this level is crossed, that's the first sign of a long waited correction after a magnificent expansion.
———
Stay Patient, Stay Disciplined! 🏄🏼♂️
Your comments, questions, and support are greatly appreciated! 👊🏼
DAXThe forecast, after a week of strong rises, is for a pullback to the area between 19461 and 19289 where there is a monthly pivot at 19359.
