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British Pound vs US Dollar

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GBPUSD.P trade ideas

If Sep CPI slows, GBPUSD could fall further The UK's September Claimant Count Change rose to 27.9K, surpassing the market expectation of 20.2K. The UK unemployment rate in August dropped to 4.0%, the lowest level since last April. Attention now turns to the UK's September CPI results, with the market expecting a decrease to 1.9% from the previous 2.2%. If the CPI slows down, it could lead to increased expectations of further rate cuts by the BoE, putting pressure on the pound. GBPUSD showed sluggish consolidation between 1.3030-1.3100 for eight consecutive trading days. The price briefly tested the support at 1.3050, awaiting further price triggers for a rebound. If GBPUSD fails to hold the support at 1.3050, the price may fall further to 1.2960. Conversely, if GBPUSD breaches both EMAs and the resistance at 1.3250, the price could gain upward momentum to 1.3435.
by inkicho_exness
GBPUSD H1 | Bullish Rise Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is currently at our buy entry at 1.3067, an overlap support close to the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit will be at 1.3111, an overlap resistance close to 61.8% Fibo retracement. The stop loss will be placed at 1.3030, which is a swing-high resistance." High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
3
GBP/USD - will inflation data shake up the pound?The British pound has been showing limited movement for over a week. In Tuesday’s North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3086, up 0.13% on the day. The Bank of England has largely won the battle against inflation, which has fallen from double digits at its peak to just 2.2% in August and July. Inflation is expected to dip to 1.9% in September thanks to lower petrol prices, reflective of the decline in crude oil prices. This would be a milestone as inflation has been above the BoE’s target since April 2021. Monthly, inflation is forecast to ease to 0.2%, down from 0.3% in August. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food and is a better indicator of long-term inflation trends, is also expected to decline, from 3.6% to 3.4% y/y and 0.4% to 0.3% m/m. The BoE has cut rates only once this year and if inflation falls below 2% as expected, the calls for the central bank to cut rates will get louder. Inflation is falling, the economy is barely growing and the cash rate remains very high at 5%. The current trend has been to cut rates - the European Central Bank has lowered rates several times and even the Federal Reserve cut in September by 50 basis points. If the BoE doesn’t cut before the end of the year, it risks becoming an outlier among the major central banks. Governor Bailey has made conflicting comments about whether the BoE needs to get moving and  cut rates. It will be interesting to hear the Governor’s reaction to the latest inflation numbers. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.3076. Above, there is resistance at 1.3129 1.3016 and 1.2963 are the next support levels
by OANDA
GBPUSD has flattened the decline. Potential rebound ahead.GBPUSD is trading inside a Bullish Megaphone since the April 22nd low. Typically it bottoms after the price crosses under the MA50 (1d), which it did last week. Even though the bottom of the Megaphone is a bit lower, R/R suggests that those are solid buy entry levels. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 1.3670 (the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, where all 3 previous Highs were priced). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) has flattened and its MA trend line is approaching. A crossing will confirm the bullish signal. Please like, follow and comment!!
Long
by TradingBrokersView
GBP/USD edges higher ahead of UK CPIThe GBP/USD finally found some mild buying interest in the last few days, but will it be enough to reverse the trend remains to be seen. Last week, we had some weaker US jobless claims and consumer sentiment data, helping to reduce the appeal of US dollar as traders’ confidence in the Fed’s ability to cut rates grew further. Not that there were many doubts but after last Friday’s strong US jobs report some traders were understandably forced to rethink their expectations for aggressive cuts. Today’s only piece of US data – the Empire State Manufacturing Index – also came in weaker. Earlier today, we had some mixed UK data with unemployment unexpectedly slipping to 4%, down from 4.1%, and as wage growth easing 4.9%, down from 5.1%, in line with analysts' expectations. UK CPI is the highlight on Wednesday. As we look forward to the rest of the week ahead, the lack of any major US data could see the greenback give back some of its recent gains, although that is not to say that the GBP/USD forecast will necessarily turn bullish, as the upside potential could be limited. UK CPI coming up UK CPI has remained at 2.2% annual pace for the last 4 months, but it is now expected to fall to 1.9% i.e., below the Bank of England’s target. Andrew Bailey has recently said that upcoming UK rate cuts could be more aggressive, although the BoE governor has also acknowledged risks of an oil shock from the Middle East situation. The GBP/USD forecast will turn modestly bullish should either CPI overshoot expectations. GBP/USD technical analysis The GBP/USD finally found some mild support from the area between 1.3000 to 1.3045. This zone was previously strong resistance in July, before we broke through it in August. The retest from above in September held, leading to an eventual rally to above 1.34 handle where the cable peaked and then started to head lower. So, whether this 1.3000-1.3045 range holds or breaks will have important ramifications on the near term direction of the GBP/USD. A potential break below could lead to a drop to 1.2900 where the cable will face an even stronger support from the rising trend line that has been in place since September 2022. Meanwhile on the upside, the next potential resistance is seen around 1.3150 followed by 1.3250. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst for FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
GBP/USD : First BUY, then SELL ! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the GBP/USD chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that the price is currently holding the support at the 1.30700 area. I expect it to continue its upward movement. The potential targets for this analysis are 1.31130 and the range between 1.31345 to 1.31455. Also, keep an eye on the 1.31455 to 1.31760 area for a potential SELL opportunity. THE MAIN ANALYSIS : Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
3
GBPUSD 2024.10.15 12:16:05 Trading Signal SELL FrankPro Signal for GBPUSD Type: Screen Signal: SELL TP: 1.30541 SL: 1.30853 Entry Price: 1.30801 Flexity Analysis for GBPUSD Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Strong Down LT=Probably Down Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Down ST=Down LT=Down FlexityIndicator Analysis Method(0) **GBP/USD Currency Pair Analysis** **Short-term Analysis (October 15, 2024)** ### Price Movement Expectation The price is expected to go down in the short term, as indicated by the break below 1.3050 and the pressure from sellers. ### Key Levels to Watch | Level | Description | | --- | --- | | 1.3005 | Support area expected to be tested | | 1.2945 | Potential decline area if support is broken | ### Trend Indicators * Moving averages suggest a short-term bullish trend, which could lead to a rebound. ### Probability of Short-term Price Movement | Direction | Probability | | --- | --- | | Down | 60% | | Up | 30% | | Same | 10% | **Long-term Analysis (October 14 — 18, 2024)** ### Price Movement Expectation The forecast indicates an attempt to develop a bearish correction, but ultimately, the price is expected to rise with a target above 1.3575. ### Key Levels to Watch | Level | Description | | --- | --- | | 1.3205 | Resistance area breakout needed to confirm growth | | 1.2865 | Breakout of this area would cancel growth option and indicate decline | ### Probability of Long-term Price Movement | Direction | Probability | | --- | --- | | Up | 55% | | Down | 35% | | Same | 10% | **Note:** These probabilities are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new data becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up FlexityIndicator Analysis Method(1) Market Outlook Short-term Outlook (next few days to a week) The price is expected to go down. The technical analysis suggests a potential lower move towards the 100-DMA at 1.2945, and a break below 1.3000 could lead to further support levels at 1.2900 and 1.2789. The forecasted movements also indicate a bearish correction to test the support level near 1.2965. Long-term Outlook (next few months to years) The price is expected to stay the same or go down. The long-term forecasts indicate a mixed outlook for the remainder of 2024, with some predicting a bearish trend. Additionally, there are predictions of a gradual decline through 2027, with some forecasts as low as 1.10 in the next five years. However, it's worth noting that there is also a predicted range between 1.24 and 1.33, which suggests some stability in the long-term outlook. Important Note Please keep in mind that these conclusions are based on the provided analysis and may not reflect the actual market movements. The foreign exchange market is highly volatile and subject to various factors that can influence price movements. Alternatively, I can also format the text using tables and lists if you prefer: Market Outlook Short-term Outlook (next few days to a week) Expected Price Movement Down Support Levels 1.2945 (100-DMA), 1.2900, 1.2789 Forecasted Movements Bearish correction to test support level near 1.2965 Long-term Outlook (next few months to years) Expected Price Movement Stay the same or go down Predicted Range 1.24 - 1.33 Forecasted Decline Gradual decline through 2027, with some forecasts as low as 1.10 in the next five years Important Note Please keep in mind that these conclusions are based on the provided analysis and may not reflect the actual market movements. The foreign exchange market is highly volatile and subject to various factors that can influence price movements. Let me know if you prefer one format over the other Result: ST=Down LT=Down FlexityIndicator Analysis Method(2) GBP/USD Price Movement Assessment Short-term Outlook (Next Few Days to a Week) Expected Price Movement Technical Analysis Down Pressure from 50-day moving average RSI in bearish territory, indicating potential for lower move Prices broken through area between signal lines downwards, indicating seller pressure However, there is also an expectation for the pair to test the support area near 1.3005, followed by a potential upward rebound, suggesting that the downward movement may be limited, and a bounce back is possible. Long-term Outlook (Next Few Months to a Year and Beyond) Expected Price Movement Forecast Down Decline to 1.235 by the end of 2024 Further decline to 1.10 in the next five years Summary The short-term outlook is bearish, but with potential for a limited bounce back, while the long-term outlook is more decisively bearish. Result: ST=Down LT=Down
Short
by orbborisson
2
GbpUsd Trade IdeaSecond set up I'll be looking at this morning is going to be GU. We have GU at a clean and well respected level of support that price has respected before. We're also at a weekly resistance using it as support right now. Weekly time frame is still bullish as well with price respecting the support it's currently at. If price shifts to the upside then we would just be following the overall trend. Now, if price decides to crash from here then we would have broken bullish structures on all time frames. Once the smaller time frames pullback to retest and confirm our shorts all time frames would be in sync for short opportunities. But that's if a break to the downside happens here. For now I'm chasing longs. We'll see!
Long
by OfficialJ23
GBP/USD Fluctuates in a Narrow Range Amid Economic DataOn Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair traded within a narrow range between 1.3077 and 1.3080, showing a slight rebound from a demand area. Despite the modest movement, the market is still waiting for more significant developments before making larger moves. UK Economic Data Supports GBP Stability Earlier on Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released key employment data, which provided some support for the British Pound. The ILO Unemployment Rate for the three months leading up to August eased to 4.0%, down from 4.1% in July. Additionally, Employment Change figures showed an increase of 373K in August, up from 265K in July, indicating continued resilience in the labor market. However, the report also showed a slight softening in wage inflation, as the Average Earnings excluding Bonus dropped to 4.9%, down from 5.1%. While wage growth moderated, the overall labor market data was positive enough to give the Pound some stability in the early session. US Data and Market Outlook The economic calendar is light for the US on Tuesday, with no major data releases expected. The market’s focus will shift to Thursday when the USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims are due to be released. These reports are expected to bring more volatility to the GBP/USD pair, as they will provide insights into the strength of the US economy and the potential direction of the US Dollar. Until these data are released, the British Pound may continue to hold onto small gains, but the overall market mood remains cautious. Technical Outlook: Bearish Momentum Ahead? From a technical standpoint, GBP/USD remains under bearish pressure, and we anticipate a potential continuation of this trend. While the pair has found some temporary support around the current levels, we expect the bearish momentum to continue until the pair reaches a more solid demand zone around the 1.2800 level. Until the pair approaches this level, we are refraining from opening any new positions, waiting for more clarity on market direction and potential retracement signals. Conclusion GBP/USD is holding steady in a narrow range as UK labor market data provides temporary support. However, the overall outlook remains cautious, with the potential for further bearish pressure. Investors should keep an eye on Thursday’s US data releases, which could trigger more significant movements in the pair. For now, we are waiting for GBP/USD to reach a stronger demand area before considering any new positions. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
GBPUSD looking berish for 80 pipsA bearish outlook for GBP/USD indicates a declining trend, suggesting that the British pound is expected to weaken against the US dollar. Factors contributing to this bearish sentiment might include: Weak UK economic data: Sluggish GDP growth, declining industrial output, or disappointing retail sales figures can signal economic weakness. Monetary policy divergence: If the Bank of England is dovish (delaying interest rate hikes or cutting rates) while the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance (raising rates), it can pressure GBP lower. Political instability: Ongoing political uncertainty, such as Brexit-related developments or changes in government leadership, can weaken investor confidence in the pound. Stronger USD: A robust US economy, favorable economic reports, or safe-haven flows into the US dollar can contribute to GBP/USD falling.
Short
by LORDOFTHETRADERS
GBPUSD Confirmed Upside potential big moveFellow traders, As I discussed earlier in another trade idea I said I was waiting on a 1 hour candle close above the 1.30758 level. We got that, I would have wanted a stronger close above it, but nonetheless it still closed above the 1.30758 level. This confirms for me that price changed into an up trend. I am looking to enter with my bigger size buying position. I will however not yet enter. I will wait for atleast the 8 hour candle to close and enter on the nearest Demand zone on the higher timeframe. As for targets, It's possible we would have some resistance at 1.31638 level. If we breach this with strength I am looking it to hold the trade to the 1.3245 level which is the next big Supply Zone. As always stay safe and use proper risk management!
Long
by oguzhane12