Gold dipped on Middle East ceasefire talksTechnical analysis: I announced possible Selling correction on Gold however Price-action has recovered half of the opening losses on the E.U. session opening as DX was taking big Daily candle hit. However the rise is still not proportional as DX and global futures are still on Lower levels. This leads me to believe that on the Short-term, there is a stronger connection of Gold to DX, rather than Bond Yields, so I will keep an eye for pressure zones on DX. Technically the Daily chart was isolated within broken / former Descending Channel on it’s Lower High’s, as Support zone had to break since last couple occasions it provided rejection twice. I announced that I was expecting strong move to take place throughout this week. Despite the Bullish Fundamental outcome on announcements last week, Gold continues to Trade near the #2-Week Low’s. This indicates that last week's aggressive Buy-off on DX was largely a pre-pricing of those Fed Rate numbers. What's obvious, as the current week will come to a close, is that the consolidation since Friday’s session is just above the Daily chart’s Support Zone (#2,627.80 - #2,642.80) which lifts the probabilities for an aggressive Selling sequence in continuation ahead, especially as Weekly chart (#1W) remains marginally Bearish. Interestingly, the Weekly candle is flat almost on zero percent.
Fundamental analysis: Selling bias formed on Hourly 4 chart is currently in motion where Gold was purely rising (Buying every dip) on Buying pressure from DX on spiral downtrend and it's role as an safe-haven, Bond Yields as well were struggling to make Bullish comeback. Price-action also manages to keep the mid-to-High levels despite the steep decline on DX and very sharp relief rally on Usd-Jpy pair which might be ahead. Especially the fact that Usd-Jpy invalidated it’s Daily chart’s Support zone, adds light Buying pressure on the Short-term, however with it's own Daily chart having regained complete Bullish status on the Short-term for the first time since September #27. On the Short-term though, the Price-action is testing the inner Support zone and may require to have small pullback in order to accumulate more Buying pressure to convincingly break #2,652.80 this time (I have announced that benchmark might stall the downtrend). As soon as the new market dynamics, post-Fed candles find their prior balance, Gold might deliver some fair Technical Trading which currently is not available.
My position: Even though I have missed first ceasefire talks decline aftermath being on sidelines (#2,688.80 - #2,640.80), I have took my chances and re-Sold Gold on #2,638.80 and closed my order on #2,618.80 which delivered excellent Profit. As soon as I have spotted the news I was aware that Buying side has small chances to extend the relief rally above #2,642.80 Resistance which was excellent Selling opportunity. Since overall I am very satisfied with my returns, I don't have urge to enter now again and gamble on ranging markets. Currently, I will wait for area to be engulfed and only then make my move since on Short-term both sides are equally probable.
