ASML trade ideas
10/15/24 - $asml - buying sub $730 here...10/15/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:ASML
buying sub $730 here...
- booking drop. k
- "AI" is dead... nope
- one of the few hard to replace co's in the semi's space
- unclear where bottom is b/c the drop is so extreme. pods get rekt and need to deleverage
- 25x PE (on perhaps inflated EPS) still expensive
- but a good LT entry at this pt
- making it a 2% position to go - swingin' a bit on the big drop
- would make it closer to 3-5% as we get closer to the mid 600s
- stay safe.
- lol
V
ASML Perhaps the most structured buy in the market!ASML Holding (ASML) has been trading within a 2-year Channel Up pattern since the October 13 2022 Low. The recent September 10 2024 Low has been at the bottom of the pattern, technically forming its new Higher Low.
Yesterday it broke and closed above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 3 months, which has been a solid bullish break-out signal on both previous Bullish Legs. Those then went on huge rallies that rose by +87.94% and +91.92% respectively.
As a result, with the 1W MACD about to form the final buy confirmation with a Bullish Cross, we set a 1380 long-term Target on a minimum +87.94% rise from the bottom, that will form an ideal Higher High on the Channel Up.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
ASML April 17, 2024: Sell SignalOn April 17, 2024, NASDAQ:ASML broke down from its trendline, as shown on the chart, after its earnings release.
Similar to NASDAQ:ARM , the breakdown occurred at the same time when it crossed below its 50-day moving average, which signified a sell signal for both stocks.
Heading Into Earning With a Bearish FlagNASDAQ:ASML a leading chipmaker is showing an interesting pattern!
In the short term, momentum appears bullish as the price has crossed the 20 SMA and is approaching the 50 SMA, with analysts expecting positive earnings. However, on the daily and weekly charts, a bearish flag pattern is forming, which suggests a potential downtrend. If the price breaks above the 849 resistance, the bullish momentum could continue, but if it fails, the downtrend may push the price towards the 775 support level.
ASML :1400$ TARGET In this technical analysis, I am evaluating the price movement of ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ) using Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci Retracement to project potential future price trends. This approach helps us identify key price levels, offering a clearer view of where the stock may be headed in the coming months.
Purpose of the Analysis
The primary goal of this analysis is to highlight potential target levels and retracement zones. On the chart, two green squares indicate these areas:
The lower square represents the retracement target, which has already been reached. This zone was calculated using the Fibonacci retracement tool, which helps identify key reversal levels during price corrections.
The upper square marks the final target, projecting where the stock could move as the upward trend continues. After a brief retracement, the price is expected to rise toward this upper zone.
Elliott Wave Structure
The price movement is analyzed through Elliott Wave Theory, which divides market trends into:
A series of 5 waves, representing the primary upward movement.
A corrective ABC pattern, which signals a temporary retracement before the continuation of the main trend.
Trendlines and the Channel
The two black trendlines represent a price channel within which the stock has been moving. This channel defines the current boundaries for the upward price movement:
The lower trendline acts as a support level, preventing the price from falling further.
The upper trendline serves as resistance, capping the price’s rise.
As long as the price remains within this channel, we can expect it to continue its bullish trajectory. However, there is also the potential for the price to break out above the upper trendline, signaling even stronger upward momentum. A breakout would be a highly bullish signal, suggesting the stock could exceed the current projected target and enter a new phase of aggressive growth.
Future Outlook
After completing the retracement, the stock is likely to continue moving upward within the channel. If the price respects these trendlines, it should climb toward the upper target. A breakout above the upper trendline would signal a more powerful rally, possibly leading to even higher prices.
ASMLA key company in the supply chain of biggest chipmakers.
Earnings coming up this month - price could potentially drop prior to earnings.
However, chips have seen a large tailwind in the recent weeks about AI spurring chip demand for 2025, that resulted in a lift for all chip maker stocks.
Micron recently outperformed their quarterly targets and saw an increase in stock of 17% intraday, coming down a bit lower to end the day.
Similarly, the AI tailwind could result in a similar uplift for ASML, as it is one of select companies offering a unique service that will be in increasing demand in the years to come.
The chart technical indicated a pennant, albeit slightly downward facing, indicating a risk of further downward movement. That being said, the industry news at large is overwhelmingly positive and slated for a rise in 2025 and with this risk reward ratio, it is a good hand to play while limiting downside risk.
ASML to $827 abd beyondMODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make.
Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated.
My trading system is very simple.
I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels.
I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels.
Bonus if a TTM Squeeze in in play.
I hold until target is reached or end of year, when I can book a loss.
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price at bottom channel
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level
Price at Fibonacci level
In at $759
Upside targets are 50% fib retrace at $881 or to top of channel
ASML Elliot ABC Correction Wave I think ASML will decline with the Elliot correction wave after today's financials.
I think this correction could be up to $680-820 levels.
There is a gap around $ 780, at least I think this gap will be filled.
Every upward reaction in ASML above around $900 is an opportunity for a short position. As long as ASML remains below $1050, I plan to increase my short position on any upward price reaction above $900.
ASML Trend Cloud StudyASML = Hold or Buy?
The recent Correction seen after a Great Earnings Report is un-expected IMO.
Could be China Related Bla Bla.
There where clues but I missed them.
Having a Stop-Loss set did sell 50% at a nice Profit.
However I do not like to sell.
Recently I've noted that one must sell at a profit in order to redeploy or save in CASH especially if the markets are Choppy and then re-evaluate.
Finding the Bottom or Top of any Stock / Trade is inherently flawed. I do it small to DCA.
Best is to do nothing, and wait.
Also I use the formulae
The Formulae I use is -
PV=FV/(1+r)^t Present Value = Future Value / (1 + R Rate of Return ) ^ Time.
So rather deploy Cash for a better Gain is the Simple meaning.
Time is Valuable. Don't sit in a Trade or Investment if looks it will not perform.
Getting out early (With Profit) never lost you Money.
Smash that Rocket Boost Button and also follow me should you Appreciate my Studies and do comment. I try to Reply and also Assist where possible.
Kind Regards
Graham.
ASML: Poised for Record Orders Fueled by AI Chip DemandASML (ASML:EUR), the world's leading supplier of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, is expected to report a significant increase in new orders during its upcoming second-quarter earnings briefing. This surge is primarily driven by the booming demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips, prompting chipmakers to ramp up production capabilities. A strong performance in Q2 could propel ASML's stock price further.
Key Drivers
Exponential Growth in AI Applications: The rapid proliferation of AI applications across various industries is creating an unprecedented demand for high-performance chips.
ASML's Lithography Leadership: ASML holds a dominant market position in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, a critical technology for manufacturing the most advanced chips. This technological edge makes ASML an indispensable partner for leading chip manufacturers like TSMC, a supplier to tech giants such as Nvidia and Apple.
Analyst Expectations: Industry analysts anticipate ASML's Q2 order value to reach €5 billion, surpassing consensus estimates. This growth is primarily attributed to strong demand from TSMC for ASML's EUV product line.
Potential Catalysts
Confirmation of Robust Orders: The upcoming Q2 earnings report will be a key indicator of the strength of the order surge, particularly from major players like TSMC.
Positive Forward Guidance: Clear and optimistic guidance from ASML's new CEO regarding future demand trends and potential growth prospects could further boost investor confidence.
Risks to Consider
Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China, and associated export controls, could potentially impact ASML's sales to certain regions.
Demand Fluctuations and Lead Times: The long lead times (12-18 months) for ASML's equipment introduce challenges in dynamically adjusting production capacity to meet unforeseen demand fluctuations.
Investment Conclusion
ASML is strategically positioned to capitalize on the long-term growth trajectory of the AI chip market. The upcoming earnings report will be a critical data point in assessing the strength of the current demand surge and ASML's ability to navigate potential headwinds. Investors should closely monitor order numbers, management guidance, and any commentary regarding the impact of geopolitical factors.
ASML Holding may receive a significant new orderDutch company ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML), which manufactures equipment for the serial production of semiconductors, recently announced that it expects new orders from its major customer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC).
A report from Jefferies Investment Bank cites comments from ASML CFO Roger Dassen. During a call with investors, he suggested that ASML equipment orders from TSMC could be received in the coming quarters.
By 2025, ASML expects annual sales to grow to 30-40 billion USD, and demand is expected to remain stable until 2026 due to the construction of new semiconductor factories in various countries.
To explore potential trading opportunities, let's analyse the stock chart of ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML) from a technical analysis perspective:
On the Daily (D1) timeframe, resistance has formed at 1042.50 USD, with support at 943.65 USD. Stocks have been trading in an upward trend since early May 2024. If this trend reverses, a potential downside target could be 850.00 USD.
If the current uptrend maintains its momentum, the short-term target, upon a break above the resistance level, could be set at 1110.00 USD. For a medium-term investment, the stock price could rise to 1170.00 USD.
__
Ideas and other content presented on this page should not be considered as guidance for trading or an investment advice. RoboMarkets bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading opinions described in these analytical reviews.
The material presented and the information contained herein is for information purposes only and in no way should be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law L. 87(I)/2017 of the Republic of Cyprus or any other form of personal advice or recommendation, which relates to certain types of transactions with certain types of financial instruments.
Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69.88% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
ASML: Catalyzing the Next Wave of Semiconductor InnovationASML Holding NV, the world's leading semiconductor equipment manufacturer, has recently seen its shares rise significantly following optimistic comments from CFO Roger Dassen regarding upcoming orders from its key customer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). The company’s lithography tools, particularly its cutting-edge extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines, are essential for producing the intricate circuitry found in advanced computer chips. This article explores the latest developments at ASML and their implications for the semiconductor industry.
Share Surge on Positive Outlook
On a recent investor call hosted by Jefferies, ASML CFO Roger Dassen expressed optimism about securing significant orders from TSMC, particularly for ASML's high numerical aperture (high-NA) EUV machines. These comments led to a 6.3% rise in ASML's share price, reaching €927.10 ($1,008.78).
Strategic Importance of High-NA EUV Machines
The high-NA EUV machines represent a substantial leap in lithography technology, capable of etching semiconductor lines just 8 nanometers thick, significantly smaller than the previous generation. These machines, which cost around €350 million ($380 million) each and weigh as much as two Airbus A320s, are pivotal for manufacturing chips that power artificial intelligence applications and advanced consumer electronics.
TSMC, the world's largest maker of advanced chips, is set to receive one of these high-NA EUV machines this year. This follows Intel's acquisition of the first such machine, which was delivered to its Oregon facility in late December. The strategic importance of these machines cannot be overstated, as they are crucial for maintaining technological leadership in semiconductor manufacturing.
Market Dynamics and Demand Forecast
ASML has projected robust sales targets for 2025, aiming for a revenue range of €30-40 billion, driven by the growing demand for advanced logic chips used in smartphones and AI applications. The company expects continued strong demand through 2026, bolstered by government-subsidized factories being built globally under initiatives like the U.S. CHIPS Act.
Jefferies analysts forecast that ASML's average orders will amount to approximately €5.7 billion per quarter for the remainder of this year, potentially pushing 2025 sales to the upper end of the company’s guidance. The demand for ASML’s high-NA EUV machines, despite their hefty price tag, underscores the semiconductor industry's reliance on this cutting-edge technology to maintain competitive advantage.
Competitive Landscape and Technological Edge
ASML's dominance in the EUV lithography market remains unchallenged. The complexity of EUV technology and the extensive ecosystem required for its development means that competitors like Chinese lithography company SMEE or Huawei are unlikely to pose a threat in the foreseeable future. This technological edge ensures that ASML remains at the forefront of semiconductor manufacturing innovation.
Conclusion
ASML’s latest advancements in EUV technology and the strategic partnerships with industry giants like TSMC and Intel highlight the company’s pivotal role in shaping the future of semiconductor manufacturing. The positive market reaction to CFO Roger Dassen’s comments reflects investor confidence in ASML’s ability to meet and exceed its ambitious sales targets. As the demand for advanced semiconductor chips continues to surge, ASML's technological innovations will be critical in driving the next wave of growth in the semiconductor industry.
ASML is at the forefront of innovation in chipmaking, with its cutting-edge EUV technology and collaborations with industry leaders like TSMC and Intel. Investors are clearly bullish, as shown by the positive market response to comments from CFO Roger Dassen. ASML's advancements are essential for building the next generation of super-powerful chips, perfectly positioned to capitalize on the skyrocketing demand for these components.
75: Analyzing ASML Sales Decline Potential Bearish MomentumIn light of the recent downturn in ASML sales, it's prudent to assess potential implications for the stock's trajectory. ASML faces lower than expected orders in Q1 amid industry downturn. CEO Peter Wennink remains optimistic about sector recovery in 2024. Orders dip to €3.6 billion, revenue at €5.3 billion. Our initial target lies at 826.1, where we anticipate a consolidation phase. However, if selling pressure persists, we could foresee a drop to 688.6. Monitoring validation of short positions is crucial. Conversely, stabilization around 826.1 could signify a potential reversal and pave the way for renewed upward momentum. Keeping a close eye on market dynamics and key support levels will be paramount in navigating ASML's current trajectory.
ASML Weekly - Breakout and successful re-test of prior ATH ASML on the weekly timeframe broke out of the prior All Time High level of 877 made back in Sep 2021 and retested the same and is trading above that level.
As long as ASML is trading above 900 level, we can expect to 930 immediate target, followed by 950 and then 1000 levels prior to their next earnings.
CMP - 919
T1 - 930
T2 - 950
T3 - 1000
SL - day close below 900
The above is just my opinion based on my chart reading skills.
